Phase I - 2013-2014 MBB Season

[kAzE]

I agree. I still maintain that if Quinn goes through any extended funk this season, K won't hesitate to move Rasheed to the point. Even with Rasheed at the point, and Andre at the two, you still have 2 other great ball handlers on the floor with Hood and Jabari which takes pressure off Andre as a ball handler.. K actually showed that line up a little bit Friday night. WIth that group, Hood basically played the 2 on offense with Andre at the 3, and Amile/Jabari in the post. That is huge in my opinion.

Hm . . . I'm not implying anything, but I just wanted some more people's takes. Do you guys think Cook is in a mini-funk right now? After the Battle 4 Atlantis Final last year, I thought he was going to just take off and become the point guard that we've needed to get over the hump. He had some spectacular games last year, mostly early in the season, but then tailed off a bit later on, especially in conference play.

Obviously, Cook had a great opener, as did everyone on the roster, and I even voted him MOTM, but the last 2 games, while he's been fairly adequate, he's made some very bizzarre decisions on the court, taking some bad shots early in possessions, being extremely passive at times, and trying to make plays that aren't there. I thought after what we saw from early last year, that he would really break out this season as a junior and just start dominating, but that hasn't really materialized yet. So is he just having a couple "off" games, or is this what we can expect going forward?

Next year, when Tyus Jones is in town, I'm not even 100% sure that Cook is the starting point guard for the whole year. He probably will start, but hypothetically, if either Hood or Parker stays on an extra year, it's going to be difficult to justify starting 2 point guards when there's the possibility of a Tyus Jones/Sulaimon/Hood/Parker(or Jefferson)/Okafor starting lineup. I may be overestimating Jones, but his feel for the game is hard to question. He's clearly the more talented player when compared to Cook, but Cook will be a senior. I've always been a big fan of Cook's, but I thought he would be a more dominant player at this point. I still expect him to have a BIG game soon, and hopefully it will get him on track. We definitely need him to step it up if there's going to be talk of contending for a national title this year.

[Kedsy]

Hm . . . I'm not implying anything, but I just wanted some more people's takes. Do you guys think Cook is in a mini-funk right now? After the Battle 4 Atlantis Final last year, I thought he was going to just take off and become the point guard that we've needed to get over the hump. He had some spectacular games last year, mostly early in the season, but then tailed off a bit later on, especially in conference play.

Obviously, Cook had a great opener, as did everyone on the roster, and I even voted him MOTM, but the last 2 games, while he's been fairly adequate, he's made some very bizzarre decisions on the court, taking some bad shots early in possessions, being extremely passive at times, and trying to make plays that aren't there. I thought after what we saw from early last year, that he would really break out this season as a junior and just start dominating, but that hasn't really materialized yet. So is he just having a couple "off" games, or is this what we can expect going forward?

Next year, when Tyus Jones is in town, I'm not even 100% sure that Cook is the starting point guard for the whole year. He probably will start, but hypothetically, if either Hood or Parker stays on an extra year, it's going to be difficult to justify starting 2 point guards when there's the possibility of a Tyus Jones/Sulaimon/Hood/Parker(or Jefferson)/Okafor starting lineup. I may be overestimating Jones, but his feel for the game is hard to question. He's clearly the more talented player when compared to Cook, but Cook will be a senior. I've always been a big fan of Cook's, but I thought he would be a more dominant player at this point. I still expect him to have a BIG game soon, and hopefully it will get him on track. We definitely need him to step it up if there's going to be talk of contending for a national title this year.

Well, first of all, don't hold your breath for Jabari and Rodney to stay an extra year. Or even one of them, in all likelihood.

Second, Quinn is averaging 13.0 ppg, 6.7 apg with a 5 to 1 a/to ratio, and 3.3 rpg. Yeah, he's taken a few ill-advised shots, but did you really expect better performance than the numbers he's put up so far?

For reference 6.7 apg currently leads all ACC players and if that was his season number would have been 2nd in the ACC last year. That number would be better than either Jason Williams or Chris Duhon ever put up over the course of a season. The 5 to 1 a/to ratio would be a Duke all-time record. Not saying he will keep it up all season, but so far at least it's hard to complain about Quinn's production.

[kAzE]

Well, first of all, don't hold your breath for Jabari and Rodney to stay an extra year. Or even one of them, in all likelihood.

Second, Quinn is averaging 13.0 ppg, 6.7 apg with a 5 to 1 a/to ratio, and 3.3 rpg. Yeah, he's taken a few ill-advised shots, but did you really expect better performance than the numbers he's put up so far?

For reference 6.7 apg currently leads all ACC players and if that was his season number would have been 2nd in the ACC last year. That number would be better than either Jason Williams or Chris Duhon ever put up over the course of a season. The 5 to 1 a/to ratio would be a Duke all-time record. Not saying he will keep it up all season, but so far at least it's hard to complain about Quinn's production.

Well, his numbers are pretty good, although the Davidson game does skew the stats a little bit. He just hasn't looked great the past 2 games. Either way, it's a tiny sample size, so there's no reason to panic. Like I said, he's been fine, I just thought he'd be a real force this year (and I still think there's a good chance he will be), instead of pretty much the same guy as last year. Parker and Hood are going to be the stars of the team, and we know they will bring it every night, but I believe Cook's play is going to be the x-factor in determining if this team is a sweet 16 team or a final four team.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Well, first of all, don't hold your breath for Jabari and Rodney to stay an extra year. Or even one of them, in all likelihood.

Second, Quinn is averaging 13.0 ppg, 6.7 apg with a 5 to 1 a/to ratio, and 3.3 rpg. Yeah, he's taken a few ill-advised shots, but did you really expect better performance than the numbers he's put up so far?

For reference 6.7 apg currently leads all ACC players and if that was his season number would have been 2nd in the ACC last year. That number would be better than either Jason Williams or Chris Duhon ever put up over the course of a season. The 5 to 1 a/to ratio would be a Duke all-time record. Not saying he will keep it up all season, but so far at least it's hard to complain about Quinn's production.

If Quinn keeps this up, I absolutely don't mind one or two ill-advised shots a game!

Quinn has been an incredible player for us this year and just the kind of player that we need. Like Amile, he is an opportunist on offense: drives when there are clear open lanes, shoots when open (and once or twice when he isn't!), and always makes the excellent pass. Plus, his steady hand is, well, steady!

There is a reason that he has accumulated the most number of minutes thus far in the early season.

[COYS]

If Quinn keeps this up, I absolutely don't mind one or two ill-advised shots a game!

Quinn has been an incredible player for us this year and just the kind of player that we need. Like Amile, he is an opportunist on offense: drives when there are clear open lanes, shoots when open (and once or twice when he isn't!), and always makes the excellent pass. Plus, his steady hand is, well, steady!

There is a reason that he has accumulated the most number of minutes thus far in the early season.

Also, if Quinn is currently playing poorly, then I hope he keeps up playing this poorly the rest of the season! His poor play includes an offensive rating of 140, which is better than either Jabari or Rodney, despite both of those guys getting off to incredible starts. Also, Quinn's shot percentage is actually down from last year. He's only taking 17% of the team's shots, which is lower than last season. One or two ill-advised shots aside (and EVERYONE takes a few ill-advised shots . . . except for maybe Jon Scheyer), he's playing well, getting people involved, and shooting less than last season.

Obviously, Quinn's ludicrously high O-rating will decrease as the season goes on, but Quinn is playing very well. He needs to continue to take care of the ball, as his 5-1 assist to turnover ratio is a big part of that swollen offensive rating. I'm more interested in his defense and the team's defense as a whole. Quinn is playing well 1 on 1, but screens give him trouble and not a one of our forwards is particularly adept at hedging. The team's ceiling on offense is so high right now that it would be a shame for the team defense to prevent the team from reaching its potential.

Bottom line: Quinn may not have played perfectly so far, but he has played very well. Offense has hardly been the problem.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Also, if Quinn is currently playing poorly, then I hope he keeps up playing this poorly the rest of the season! His poor play includes an offensive rating of 140, which is better than either Jabari or Rodney, despite both of those guys getting off to incredible starts. Also, Quinn's shot percentage is actually down from last year. He's only taking 17% of the team's shots, which is lower than last season. One or two ill-advised shots aside (and EVERYONE takes a few ill-advised shots . . . except for maybe Jon Scheyer), he's playing well, getting people involved, and shooting less than last season.

Obviously, Quinn's ludicrously high O-rating will decrease as the season goes on, but Quinn is playing very well. He needs to continue to take care of the ball, as his 5-1 assist to turnover ratio is a big part of that swollen offensive rating. I'm more interested in his defense and the team's defense as a whole. Quinn is playing well 1 on 1, but screens give him trouble and not a one of our forwards is particularly adept at hedging. The team's ceiling on offense is so high right now that it would be a shame for the team defense to prevent the team from reaching its potential.

Bottom line: Quinn may not have played perfectly so far, but he has played very well. Offense has hardly been the problem.

Agreed on all fronts (except maybe the Jon Scheyer comment. While he didn't take that many shots, Jon has crazy streaky that I often shouted at the TV when he did shoot).

Defensively, he's never going to be a Nolan Smith, but I don't think he has to. He needs to stay in front of his man, and that's a lot to ask of any PG in the ACC.

Quinn is playing outstanding O, so much so that he may be the 2nd most important O player at the end of the day (don't think anyone is surpassing Mr. Parker). Keep it up Quinn, and give em hell.

[Kedsy]

Obviously, Quinn's ludicrously high O-rating will decrease as the season goes on, but Quinn is playing very well.

Here are the oRatings for all Duke (recruited scholarship) players in this young season:

Tyler: 188.4
Andre: 187.3
Quinn: 140.5
Jabari: 136.5
Rodney: 136.3
Rasheed: 127.6
Amile: 127.2
Josh: 97.3
Matt: 86.4
Semi: 80.8
Alex: 80.4
Marshall: 74.4

That's a pretty eye-popping top seven.

[Dukeface88]

Well, first of all, don't hold your breath for Jabari and Rodney to stay an extra year. Or even one of them, in all likelihood.

I've noticed quite a few posters doing this, but I don't think it's really fair to combine Jabari and Rodney when talking about who stays and who leaves. Jabari is likely a top three pick, and almost certainly gone. Rodney is more like a top thirty pick (most of the mock drafts I've seen have him going in the late 20s). It wouldn't be unheard of for him to stay based on those prospects - Kyle Singler was looking at about that range after 2010 and decided to stay, as was Mason in 2012. Obviously Rodney may not make the same decisions as Mason or Kyle, but I think his situation is at least as close to theirs as it is to Jabari's. At any rate, I wouldn't assume anything one way or the other at this point, and I think it's reasonable to entertain the possibility of Rodney's return as a hypothetical. However, even in that scenario, I don't know that Quinn would end up as the odd man out. It could easily be Rasheed as the sixth man, or even Tyus in the (fairly unlikely) event that he doesn't develop as quickly as expected. I actually think the more likely lineup would actually be to play all three guards with Hood at the 4 (which we've been doing at times this year).

Having said all that, I have few complaints about Quinn so far, and those have been more related to defense than offense. And frankly those probably aren't his fault anyway - I really don't know how guys are supposed to play defense with the way fouls have been called on the offensive end. I mean, there's been what, one charge in three games?

[Kedsy]

It wouldn't be unheard of for him to stay based on those prospects...

I agree it wouldn't be unheard of, but from what I've heard the staff expects him to probably leave. I don't have any inside info anymore, so I'm not sure if it's really true or not, but if the staff expects it then it makes sense for us to expect it as well.

[ChillinDuke]

I agree it wouldn't be unheard of, but from what I've heard the staff expects him to probably leave. I don't have any inside info anymore, so I'm not sure if it's really true or not, but if the staff expects it then it makes sense for us to expect it as well.

To further this point, it's glaringly obvious to us (the diehard Duke fans) that Rodney is arguably the best player on our team - at least actual production wise. As that view becomes clearer to those outside of our diehard circle, his stock only goes up. So I'm not surprised by a slight discrepancy between what the mock drafts are currently saying and what the coaching staff is currently saying. It takes time for everyone else to realize what the insiders already know.

- Chillin

[superdave]

I thought this Espn article by Bruce Pearl was pretty interesting. Pearl examines Duke's defense and states that they have been hurt by defensive rule changes as much as anyone. He does not get into a whole lot of analysis, but suggests more length is better with the defensive rule focus.

Duke's traditional ball pressure and jumping the passing lanes is not working this season because of some big flaws. Duke's defense seems to fall short this year in on-ball defense, communicating and interfering with pick and rolls, and helping when pick and rolls go bad for the defense. The immediate solution is for our bigs to hedge better to allow guards to fight through screens and for guards to stay in front of their man in non pick and roll plays.

Coach K went with the zone for a possession or two against Arizona to no avail. The full court press has seemed pro forma and not produced turnovers. I would be surprised if Duke plays zone much more this year. I do like having it ready to throw a junk defense at a hot team to break their rhythm, or in the event of awful foul trouble. Otherwise, Coach K is not a zone coach. I am not really sure the full court press is going to be great for us either. I think the pressure is fairly token, unfortunately. The only way I can see improving it is to trap the recipient of the first pass. Perhaps that is a wrinkle that could be added in December.

It looks like Jefferson and Parker are going to have to show improvement in hedging on pick and rolls to give our guards more time to fight through screens. They also need to play better help side defense whe the other slides up to hedge. Parker seems to want to lay back and go for the help side block shot, but would be better served occupying some space in the lane at times. December is a great time to address these issues.

On the guard end, Quinn, Rasheed and Andre all need to simply keep their man in front of them. That has little to do with the the new rule emphasis. However, when they get beat, the rules do not favor big guys who are slow to rotate.

I am curious as to what others see as the best and most likely solution for our D over the next few weeks.