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  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Dawkins is a streaky 3-point shooter. Citing a career 3-point shooting percentage doesn't really capture the essence of his shooting. He's probably had games in the past where he's shot 20% or even less. But on the other hand (without looking up any stats), he's probably had games where he shot 60% or even higher.


    The magic of Dawkins's shooting is not the overall percentage, but the fact that, at any given point in time, he could potentially hit 4 or 5 of them in a 2-minute stretch and completely demoralize the opposing team. Think Michigan State at Madison Square Garden, for example. It's hard to overstate the effect this can have on a game. The trick is to ride Dawkins when he's hot. If he hits his first three-pointer in a game, we should be looking to get him another open look as quickly as possible. Because if he hits that second open 3, look out. That's the time to keep getting him the ball.

    I think it's all about confidence. That's the only way I can explain the streaky shooter. His natural shot is pure and almost automatic. He misses when he worries about making a shot; if he just shoots the ball, it generally goes in. So if he hits the first couple of shots, he can go into the "automatic" or "unconscious" mode (sometimes called "the zone" by sports psychologists). When he does that, he's a very, very good shooter.

    The flip side of that coin is that if he misses 2 or 3, he seems apt to go into a conscious shooting mode, which is not good.
    both of those cases are indisputably true. Dawkins has had games where he went 0-5 3FGs (which is <20%) and he's had games where he shot 4-5 3FGs (>60%).
    I'm hoping that Andre will be able to get more chances to shoot non-3s (and make them of course), which would hopefully give him the feel of the ball going thru the hoop and boost his confidence on 3s. That would largely be predicated on a) an improved handle to drive for a pull-up jumper (not sure how effective he is at that) as well as b) cutting into the lane at the right time for 1 or no-dribble dunks or jumpers and c) steals and other defensive plays that lead to layups/dunks (i've seen Dre do this so we know it can happen).
    As has been pointed out by plenty of others there seem to be 2 conditions on his playing time: a) defense, if he messes up a rotation or other miscue his PT tends to go down a lot and b) if he's hot shooting K has a tendency to be forgiving about a).
    I'm really hoping Dre puts it together this year and shakes the inconsistency (of effort) that has dogged him in the past.

  2. #42
    1) I didnt watch the exhibition
    2) It was only one game (and an exhibition)

    That said, when looking at the box score the FIRST thing that jumped out to me was Andre's playing time and production. I remember having a conversation with Jim Sumner earlier this year befpre Dawkins announced he was coming back. While I felt that he was the odd odd one out for playing time Jim did a good job of convincing me that if Dawkins and the staff didn't mutually believe that Dawkins would play significant minutes, they would have parted ways

    (Source Post

    I think we need to wait till at least the second regular season game (at LEAST) before trying to figure the minutes distribution for Dawkins (and Jones and Murphy)

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by Skitzle View Post
    While I felt that he was the odd odd one out for playing time Jim did a good job of convincing me that if Dawkins and the staff didn't mutually believe that Dawkins would play significant minutes, they would have parted ways
    I get the sense after the last year that Andre is just glad to be back on the team and playing time isn't going to be that big of an issue. I mean, he took the season off because of a personal tragedy, I doubt someone would ever come back from that with playing time demands.

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Potato Head View Post
    I get the sense after the last year that Andre is just glad to be back on the team and playing time isn't going to be that big of an issue. I mean, he took the season off because of a personal tragedy, I doubt someone would ever come back from that with playing time demands.
    Playing time demands, no. Playing time ambitions/desires, maybe. We know that K never promises people playing time; they have to earn it (although he obviously can predict fairly clearly that certain top-ranked recruits can expect a lot of playing time). Still, it's my sense (with no inside information) that he is pretty straight with players about what the likely range of possibilities is and about what would be best for them. Andre already has a Duke degree, so if Coach K didn't think he had a least a reasonable chance of earning significant minutes, it seems likely he would have encouraged him to transfer. "Reasonable chance," of course, is just that, and we will have to see how it all plays out.

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Potato Head View Post
    I doubt someone would ever come back from that with playing time demands.
    That's true, but I believe Skitzle was talking about playing time expectations. On both sides.

    My guess is it'll take a lot more than an exhibition game showing (or even two) to relegate Andre to the end of the bench.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by MCFinARL View Post
    Playing time demands, no. Playing time ambitions/desires, maybe. We know that K never promises people playing time; they have to earn it (although he obviously can predict fairly clearly that certain top-ranked recruits can expect a lot of playing time). Still, it's my sense (with no inside information) that he is pretty straight with players about what the likely range of possibilities is and about what would be best for them. Andre already has a Duke degree, so if Coach K didn't think he had a least a reasonable chance of earning significant minutes, it seems likely he would have encouraged him to transfer. "Reasonable chance," of course, is just that, and we will have to see how it all plays out.
    I have to agree with this 100%. Andre is a 5th year senior, meaning he could have transferred to any program for more guaranteed playing time. I think Coach K told Andre what his value to the team is and could be, and Andre bought into it and hence stayed.

    Coach K loves to win, but he also loves his kids. I doubt he wouldn't shoot it straight with Andre.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Why is this so clear? Jones had a nice game - definitely exceeded my expectations - but I think this is far from clear.

    Andre didn't play well in surprisingly few minutes. But Andre played quite well (to my eye) when we scrimmaged against each other in the blue/white and open practice - and our second unit is arguably better than Bowie State's starters (although Bowie State did look like a talented team that could compete in a power conference).

    The reports and predictions on Matt Jones are simply premature. Way too few data points to draw a rational conclusion. I'm excited to see the kid play and grow but to call him our most talented "2 guard" is not something I would agree with, and especially not something I would call clear. I think Rasheed is still the most versatile of the three, but I'm still not sure we need his versatility in a starting lineup which includes Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood, and Amile Jefferson. Versatility was at a premium last year on a team starting Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and Seth Curry - three great players I would not consider particularly versatile. Not so much anymore. Andre's ability to spread the floor and open up the paint with his shooting might be a preferable alternative assuming our defense holds up. K does not appear to prefer this option thus far. So be it.

    But I'm definitely not writing off Andre just yet. And similarly, I'm definitely not writing in Matt either. Need to see more from both - and much more from Matt.

    - Chillin
    Nowhere did I (or anyone else that I know of) say call Jones our most talented 2 guard. I simply said that, in the small sample thus far, Jones has looked (i.e., played) better than the other two. That does not mean that he is better. Just that, in a small sample size, he has looked better. Two TOTALLY different statements.

    I'm not writing off Dawkins nor am I writing in Jones. And I'm certainly not making any declarative statements of who is the most talented. Far from it.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Nowhere did I (or anyone else that I know of) say call Jones our most talented 2 guard. I simply said that, in the small sample thus far, Jones has looked (i.e., played) better than the other two. That does not mean that he is better. Just that, in a small sample size, he has looked better. Two TOTALLY different statements.

    I'm not writing off Dawkins nor am I writing in Jones. And I'm certainly not making any declarative statements of who is the most talented. Far from it.
    Sorry, didn't mean to get you defensive.

    I just wanted to make sure others didn't read your comment, think Matt Jones is outplaying our other guards, and run with it like we often see in posts regarding our incoming freshmen and predicting tons of minutes. Just wanted to emphasize that Matt Jones had a very nice first 20 minutes of unofficial, exhibition basketball in a Duke uniform.

    I admit I'm a bit confused and surprised by Andre's lack of PT, but it's not enough for me to change my views regarding his usage this year. I don't think I would change even after the next exhibition game. Just need to see much more.

    - Chillin

  9. #49

    Dre is OK

    Isn't it possible that with 3 top recruits in the house K wanted the frosh to see some playing time in this game versus the next one? Since everyone will most likely get a look in exhibitions why not give Jones some extra burn while the recruits who have likely played with/against him in HS and on the AAU circuit are in the house. It doesn't hurt in terms of putting the best foot forward for recruits to see a freshman other than Jabari getting significant PT. Okafor probably isn't worried about playing but the other two are going to be competing with upper-classmen for playing time so why not let them see a freshman getting minutes over a veteran?

    Dre will be in the rotation for his shooting, Sheed will most likely start and Jones can earn some PT if he plays well in practice or if Sheed or Dre are not performing as well as expected. Barring injury however, Jones will finish behind Dre and Sheed minutes played IMO.

  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Sorry, didn't mean to get you defensive.

    I just wanted to make sure others didn't read your comment, think Matt Jones is outplaying our other guards, and run with it like we often see in posts regarding our incoming freshmen and predicting tons of minutes. Just wanted to emphasize that Matt Jones had a very nice first 20 minutes of unofficial, exhibition basketball in a Duke uniform.

    I admit I'm a bit confused and surprised by Andre's lack of PT, but it's not enough for me to change my views regarding his usage this year. I don't think I would change even after the next exhibition game. Just need to see much more.

    - Chillin
    I think the thing for me at least is that we've seen plenty, 3 years worth of tape on Dre and his game so it just seems like more of the same. Who knows how Jones will perform over the course of the season, he'll hit that freshman wall and make freshman mistakes from time to time no doubt. But he's already displayed more versatility in his game in a couple of exhibitions than Dre has during his time at Duke. Matt looked pretty comfortable bringing the ball up the court and showed no hesitation in his handle doing so or attempting to get to the cup. Dre looked shaky at best with the ball when he actually decided to put it on the floor. For a 6'4 D1 SG at Duke no less that just seems odd to me. I don't pretend to know how things will shake out but I am not sure Dre's shooting alone is enough to get him quality minutes IF Jones can keep playing as he did Saturday. I also don't know how big of an IF that is, I think Matt is good...I know people will throw out RSCI ratings and whatnot but history whether its at Duke or other places says that's not the deciding factor.

    I hope the competition brings out the best in both players as well as Sheed...No such thing as having too many reliable options.
    Last edited by dcar1985; 10-28-2013 at 03:11 PM. Reason: typo

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    I think the thing for me at least is that we've seen plenty, 3 years worth of tape on Dre and his game so it just seems like more of the same. Who knows how Jones will perform over the course of the season, he'll hit that freshman wall and make freshman mistakes from time to time no doubt. But he's already displayed more versatility in his game in a couple of exhibitions than Dre has during his time at Duke.
    I think you are making the mistake of equating what we fans have seen and what the coaches have seen. Coach K has seen about a zillion times more of each player than we have, and if he agreed with your assessment, I doubt he would have encouraged Andre to stay this season.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I think you are making the mistake of equating what we fans have seen and what the coaches have seen. Coach K has seen about a zillion times more of each player than we have, and if he agreed with your assessment, I doubt he would have encouraged Andre to stay this season.
    Definitely possible, I disagree though. I think Coach would've welcomed Dre back regardless of whether he thought he could get minutes or not because this is where Andre wanted to be, I don't know K personally but he seems to care about his kids and I think that goes deeper than basketball. Also Andre didn't workout with the team during his year off or leading up to making his decision to return to the team so coach didn't evaluate Dre before he welcomed him back.

    Like I said though I'm just voicing my opinion not saying it's gospel, you never know how things are going to shake out until they do

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by dcar1985 View Post
    Definitely possible, I disagree though. I think Coach would've welcomed Dre back regardless of whether he thought he could get minutes or not because this is where Andre wanted to be, I don't know K personally but he seems to care about his kids and I think that goes deeper than basketball. Also Andre didn't workout with the team during his year off or leading up to making his decision to return to the team so coach didn't evaluate Dre before he welcomed him back.

    Like I said though I'm just voicing my opinion not saying it's gospel, you never know how things are going to shake out until they do
    I completely agree, and would add the following: even if Coach K DID believe that Dawkins would be a major contributor as of spring/early-summer, his view may have changed once he saw both players in practice. I'm quite sure that Coach K didn't guarantee Dawkins playing time. That's just not how he operates (PT is earned each year).

    We know from past year's that Dawkins has had a bit of a roller coaster ride with regard to playing time, and we know that a lot of that roller coaster was related to defense. I don't see any reason to assume that his playing time might hinge on similar factors this year, too.

  14. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I completely agree, and would add the following: even if Coach K DID believe that Dawkins would be a major contributor as of spring/early-summer, his view may have changed once he saw both players in practice. I'm quite sure that Coach K didn't guarantee Dawkins playing time. That's just not how he operates (PT is earned each year).

    We know from past year's that Dawkins has had a bit of a roller coaster ride with regard to playing time, and we know that a lot of that roller coaster was related to defense. I don't see any reason to NOT assume that his playing time might hinge on similar factors this year, too.
    Fixed it for you, I think--that was what you meant, yes?

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I completely agree, and would add the following: even if Coach K DID believe that Dawkins would be a major contributor as of spring/early-summer, his view may have changed once he saw both players in practice. I'm quite sure that Coach K didn't guarantee Dawkins playing time. That's just not how he operates (PT is earned each year).

    We know from past year's that Dawkins has had a bit of a roller coaster ride with regard to playing time, and we know that a lot of that roller coaster was related to defense. I don't see any reason to assume that his playing time might hinge on similar factors this year, too.
    One other thing I would add is that it is quite possible that Jones is simply much better and more ready to play than anyone expected, the coaching staff included. These kids are evaluated relentlessly during their HS careers, but even the most highly touted operate kind of under the radar from the end of the Spring All-Star games until Fall Practice begins.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by MCFinARL View Post
    Fixed it for you, I think--that was what you meant, yes?
    Correct. I'm a dufus. Thanks for fixing it!

  17. #57
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    Feb 2007
    Keep in mind the first set of substitutions brought in Dawkins, Thornton, and Hairston. At the very least Dawkins was in the top 8 going into this game, had shared the white jersey with Sulaimon in the open practice, and played with the starters in Session 2 of the Blue-White game when it was starters vs subs. I think the situation is fluid, perhaps trending downwards for Dawkins, but I suspect both he and Jones will be in the rotation, and either of them (along with Sheed) could receive the most minutes based on who is playing best that day. For this Bowie St exhibition, advantage Jones. I'm very excited about Matt. Even prior to this game, Coach K had raved about him being a pleasant surprise, an excellent defender, and well-coached in high school. Combine that with his excellent shooting ability (which hasn't really been displayed in the public games yet), and he'll affect many games this season.

  18. #58
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    I imagine Hood will be one of the team leaders and a go-to guy.

    Wheat, do you fish for stripers/rockfish this time of year? I'm going out later this week to try

  19. #59
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    Buckle up your seat belts ladies and gentlemen, because it's going to get really bumpy here at DBR this year. Yes, there is a ton of talent on this year's squad, but with that talent will come a boatload of threads discussing playing time and who should or shouldn't be getting it.

    I'm going to tell you now that the Bruise Brothers will be at the center of a lot of those threads. Both Tyler and Josh are seniors, both know the system well and for those who didn't know or just haven't been paying much attention the past 3 years, Coach K loves Tyler's game. I'm also sure that if reports of improvements in Josh's jumper are true, then he'll be getting some very solid minutes as well.

    Now, before anyone attempts to say I'm wrong, well just take a good long look at this thread. We've got one exhibition game in the books and we're already talking about Andre, Rasheed, and Matt. How long before we start debating the merits of Semi, Amile, Alex, Josh, and Marshall?

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by duketaylor View Post
    I imagine Hood will be one of the team leaders and a go-to guy.

    Wheat, do you fish for stripers/rockfish this time of year? I'm going out later this week to try
    Nope, I'm a Florida guy...redfish and snook this time of year and some bass tournaments.

    I hear nothing but good things about Parker, but it's rare for a freshman to be a leader on the floor, so I think he's not as likely to be he guy.

    I hear the same good things about Hood but he has some experience and should be settled in and confident after sitting out his transfer year, so I suspect you're right he has the best shot.

    Still, gotta sit back and see if Cook can be that guy.

    I think it will be clearer after the first few games...it should be obvious.

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