MBB (exhibition): Duke 103, Bowie State 67

[hurleyfor3]

Postgame thread, discuss here.

[GGLC]

Great to see that kind of production out of Matt. Following it online, some of the lineup combinations in the second half were pretty darn interesting.

Here's the box score.

[Furniture]

I thought it was a very good performance! What depth!

[fh84]

Fun game, I thought the second half looked pretty good. Rodney and Jabari were as advertised, Hood is so smooth! I was positively surprised by Alex, Matt and Marshall. Great game overall. Quinn was somewhat inexistent, but I'm not too worried.

[CDu]

Parker and Hood were again easily the best players on the floor. They are going to be a nightmare for the opposition.

Jones looked terrific. He was energetic on defense and aggressive on offense.

Plumlee showed some promise, though he did have a 5-6 inch height advantage when he was in there.

Sulaimon had a productive first half but a very quiet second half.

Jefferson just seems to have a knack for being in the right place at the right time. He was the recipient of several easy layups, and I don't think that was an accident.

Neither Cook nor Thornton did much on offense. Thornton was a menace on defense in the second half.

Interesting that Dawkins was basically relegated to the end-of-game squad today. Will be interesting to see how the minutes between Sulaimon, Jones, and Dawkins play out.

[Billy Dat]

First off, CDu, it's nice to see you back in action. Your post captures what I saw.

It was exciting to see so many new players and combinations on the floor, and K went to the depth early and often. He's got a real abundance with which to mix and match. There were so much NEW, and K used so many combos, that it was hard to get a feel for who was rising above but I feel like it was Jabari, Rodney and Jones who impressed me the most.

Jones was the big surprise to me. The kid plays like he belongs out there, very unfreshman-like, is a productive contributor on both ends, and also an emotional leader. Bravo. I missed the first 7 minutes and assumed Dawkins was hurt because he didn't see the court again until the real scrub time.

Hood is smooth, never in a rush, and aggressive. He also gets major points for his unorthodox foul line stance at least a full shoulders-width right of center.

After years of seeing years of various Plumlees pump fake two feet from the rim and get stripped or stuffed (and I love you boys), I was thrilled to see Parker catch the ball two feet from the rim and bull it right up into the hoop. Power in the paint!

Some later game props to Marshall and Murphy. Murphy was very active on the offensive glass, and Marshall was a presence.

One can't underestimate the impact of all the whistles, especially in the first half. I tuned in at 1:15PM with seven minutes gone and the first half did not end until nearly 2:15PM. It was brutal.

Aside from being relieved that Jabari and Rodney look ready to be center stage, my big takeaway is that the comp for minutes between Quinn, Rasheed, Matt Jones, Dawkins, Thornton and Murphy is going to be INTENSE. Honestly, with all the various line-up combos, it seems like much is up in the air, even for the "bigs". K trotted out small line-ups, big line-ups, more traditional line-ups, all with a bunch of variations on the players. This is a real swiss army knife of a roster.

[jipops]

Aside from being relieved that Jabari and Rodney look ready to be center stage, my big takeaway is that the comp for minutes between Quinn, Rasheed, Matt Jones, Dawkins, Thornton and Murphy is going to be INTENSE.

I don't quite see it this way. Rasheed still looks like the best guard on the roster by a decent margin. Though it was just one exhibition, our defense went south early in the first half when Dawkins subbed in. K pulled him and the D picked back up and we didn't see Andre again until late. I agree Matt looks promising but he's not beating out Sheed.

How about this lineup at the 2nd half 8 minute mark? Sulaimon, Ojeleye, Parker, Hood, Plumlee. That's a big lineup. Parker and Sheed shared point.

The guys are clearly not in sync with each other but it's a brand new group and it's October so no surprises there. Parker and Hood looked like the real deal to me. Hood seems automatic pulling up around foul line extended off that jab step. Parker created opportunities for Jefferson.

The defense overall is a work in progress. Bowie St waltzed into the lane way too many times in the first half.

Speculating, I see an 8 man rotation right now. Amile, Jabari, Quinn, Rasheed, Rodney, Tyler, Josh, Matt.

I think we're going to hear a ton of whistles this season.

[GGLC]

How about this lineup at the 2nd half 8 minute mark? Sulaimon, Ojeleye, Parker, Hood, Plumlee. That's a big lineup. Parker and Sheed shared point.

We also saw lineups of (a) Rasheed, Hood, Murphy, Semi, and Marshall, and (b) Jones, Dawkins, Murphy, Semi, Marshall, among others. Pretty interesting, and good to see we have a number of players who K feels comfortable having them initiate the offense.

[sagegrouse]

Generalizations on the weak evidence of one exhibition game. But hey, this is the internet.

1. Matt Jones is in the rotation.

2. Andre and MP3 are not -- but may recover.

3. Alex Murphy and Semi Olajeye also have some things to show before getting significant minutes.

4. Josh Hairston, based on what I saw today, is gonna play.

5. Starters (no surprises): Jabari, Rodney, Amile, Rasheed and Quinn.

6. Top reserves (wow!): TT, Josh, Matt

sagegrouse

[Kedsy]

Generalizations on the weak evidence of one exhibition game. But hey, this is the internet.

1. Matt Jones is in the rotation.

2. Andre [is] not

I'm not buying it yet.

[Cameron]

Excellent to see Matt Jones get off to such a positive start in his first "game" as a Blue Devil. The Sam Bowie State Sam Bowies or whoever they are are obviously not good enough to hang with Duke, but that doesn't matter. Exhibitions such as these are simply platforms for improvement scheduled to help a team mesh together, figure out who they are and to better evaluate its strengths and weaknesses. And it is clear that Matt Jones is going to be a strength of ours. Matt can score from almost anywhere inside the half-court, and with as good a first step as we have on the roster he can get to the rim -- as evidenced by his 5-of-6 shooting from the free-throw stripe. On a team like Duke's this year, which wants to get out and run and space the floor in the half court to open the game up for guys like Quinn and Rasheed and Jabari to do their thing, Jones is going to be an invaluable resource off the bench. As a quick-hitter from beyond the arc on offense and high-energy guy on defense, he will see ample rotation time. For those who have followed K's program for a long time, there are just certain kinds of freshmen that come in and you know that, with their particular set of skills, they are going to have a chance to compete and play some good minutes right away.

I know others here have been adamant that that won't be the case, but I strongly disagree. Like Rasheed a year ago, this kid already "gets it." Now, that doesn't mean he'll punch in numbers anywhere near as good as Rasheed's from a season ago. I do, however, think there will be the occasional game throughout the year, particularly early on, in which Matt's number will be called and he'll come up with a 15 to 20-point night with a handful of triples. Ask yourself this question: When is the last time a shooter as prolific as Matt -- a McDonald's All-American level talent -- came to Duke and didn't get meaningful playing time as a freshman? Yes, we have a lot more talent from top to bottom this year than most, but Matt is one of those talented players.

[Henderson]

Generalizations on the weak evidence of one exhibition game. But hey, this is the internet.

1. Matt Jones is in the rotation.

2. Andre and MP3 are not -- but may recover.

I don't think Andre and Marshall are in the same boat. If I had to choose, I'd rather be in Marshall's based just on yesterday.

Matt Jones and Andre Dawkins play the same position. Matt had a great game both offensively and defensively. Andre had a horrible game. We'll see how that plays out in the next couple months. Nothing is determined by one exhibition game, but this team is deep at that off-guard position. And Matt's stock went up yesterday; Andre's sank.

MP3 is different. There is no one on the team who can do what he can do (i.e. be 7' tall). That makes his situation completely different from Andre's.

[Henderson]

BTW, Todd Z's one contribution was a defensive rebound. He felt for his man, found him, backed him off, grabbed the rebound solidly and made the right outlet pass quickly. I know Todd isn't going to see much action this year, but it was a nice solid defensive play by him.

[Kedsy]

Our first exhibition game of 2012-13 season, redshirt-freshman Alex Murphy started and played 19 effective minutes, shooting 60% from the field.

Our first exhibition game of the 2011-12 season, freshman Alex Murphy started and played 13 minutes. Andre Dawkins shot 1 for 5, for 2 points, in 15 ineffective minutes.

Our first exhibition game of the 2010-11 season, freshman Josh Hairston scored 7 points in 16 strong minutes, while Ryan Kelly scored 2 points in 9 foul-plagued minutes. Ryan went on to start 27 games and play 20+ mpg while Josh hardly played after January 1. Andre Dawkins scored 2 points on 1 for 5 shooting in 15 minutes in that first game, but ended up playing 20+ mpg for the season.

Our first exhibition game of the 2009-10 season, freshman Ryan Kelly played 17 minutes, while Nolan Smith played only 12 minutes. Ryan barely played after January 1 and Nolan, of course, starred for a national championship team. Freshman Andre Dawkins scored 0 points on 0 for 5 shooting in 20 minutes.

I'll add in the following:

In the first real game of 2009-10, Olek Czyz started and played 24 minutes.

In the first real game of 2008-09, freshman Miles Plumlee started while Gerald Henderson shot 2 for 7 from the field.


So, tell me again how Matt Jones is in the rotation and Andre Dawkins is behind Marshall Plumlee?

Also, I'm not sure what it is about Andre and the first exhibition game, but in the four such games he's played, he's shot 3 for 22 with zero three-pointers. I'm not sure yesterday's performance said anything about his "stock," or at least any more than it said in any of the other years.

[dcar1985]

I don't think it really matters how those past situations worked out, K is going to play the more effective player. Everyone wants to see Dre do well in his year back, we're all pulling for him. I for one thought he was going to be a star when he first came to Duke but at some point you have to start looking at Dre for who he is and that's basically a one dimensional player who is so-so on defense. I remember hearing about Matt during his junior year as him being Andre 2.0 a player who could shoot lights out but not much else. Matt has clearly put in tons of work to expand his game and it shows. I just think if Matt can shoot the ball as well as his reputation suggest he can I don't see what advantage Andre has over him in their individual games.

I think the real battle for minutes is going to be Dre and Matt and not Rasheed and Dre.

[Des Esseintes]

I don't think it really matters how those past situations worked out, K is going to play the more effective player. Everyone wants to see Dre do well in his year back, we're all pulling for him. I for one thought he was going to be a star when he first came to Duke but at some point you have to start looking at Dre for who he is and that's basically a one dimensional player who is so-so on defense. I remember hearing about Matt during his junior year as him being Andre 2.0 a player who could shoot lights out but not much else. Matt has clearly put in tons of work to expand his game and it shows. I just think if Matt can shoot the ball as well as his reputation suggest he can I don't see what advantage Andre has over him in their individual games.

I think the real battle for minutes is going to be Dre and Matt and not Rasheed and Dre.

What might distinguish Andre over Matt? Shooting. All things are relative, including elite shooting. If Matt shoots 40% from deep on the season and Andre shoots 45% that's a tangible difference. It's not the entire story and it might not prove decisive, but gradations of elite shooting matter.

[CDu]

I'll add in the following:

In the first real game of 2009-10, Olek Czyz started and played 24 minutes.

In the first real game of 2008-09, freshman Miles Plumlee started while Gerald Henderson shot 2 for 7 from the field..

I agree with your assessment that exhibition games can be somewhat meaningless with regard to determining the rotation. But these two additional examples just don't seem relevant.

In the first real game of 2009-2010, Nolan Smith was suspended and Dawkins was a true freshman who had only been around the team for 2 months. Czyz was the only other scholarship player available that could play on the wing.

In that 2008-2009 opener, Henderson started and played 26 minutes (tied for the most minutes on the team). He just had an off-night shooting. Plumlee started because we had no proven options at C. He played just 13 minutes (second-fewest among our 5 big men options: Singler, Thomas, and McClure played more, Zoubek played less).

[CDu]

What might distinguish Andre over Matt? Shooting. All things are relative, including elite shooting. If Matt shoots 40% from deep on the season and Andre shoots 45% that's a tangible difference. It's not the entire story and it might not prove decisive, but gradations of elite shooting matter.

Dawkins is a career 40% 3pt shooter. In two of his 3 seasons, he's shot below 40%. He has never shot 43.0% from 3. He has sat out for a full year. To expect him to return and shoot substantially better than he has ever shot in his life is probably unrealistic.

There are certainly gradations of "elite shooting." But it remains to be seen whether there is actually any gradation in shooting between Dawkins and Jones. And to this point (in admittedly a small sample size), Jones has shown more in the other facets of the game.

I'm not saying that Jones will certainly play ahead of Dawkins. But I do think that Dawkins is going to have to either substantially step up his shooting or his defense to be sure to beat out Jones for PT.

[Des Esseintes]

Dawkins is a career 40% 3pt shooter. In two of his 3 seasons, he's shot below 40%. He has never shot 43.0% from 3. He has sat out for a full year. To expect him to return and shoot substantially better than he has ever shot in his life is probably unrealistic.

There are certainly gradations of "elite shooting." But it remains to be seen whether there is actually any gradation in shooting between Dawkins and Jones. And to this point (in admittedly a small sample size), Jones has shown more in the other facets of the game.

I'm not saying that Jones will certainly play ahead of Dawkins. But I do think that Dawkins is going to have to either substantially step up his shooting or his defense to be sure to beat out Jones for PT.

I'm not predicting 45%. I know Andre hasn't hit that percentage before. The OP said he didn't see what could distinguish Andre over Matt if both are excellent shooters. I was making the point that even with excellent shooters, degree matters. Matt has never shot 40% at the college level either. It was a hypothetical to demonstrate a point.

I'd also add that saying Jones has "shown more" is as you say a laughably small sample size. It might not even be accurate. Reports from the open practices had strong things to say about Andre and were quieter about Matt.

[CDu]

I'm not predicting 45%. I know Andre hasn't hit that percentage before. The OP said he didn't see what could distinguish Andre over Matt if both are excellent shooters. I was making the point that even with excellent shooters, degree matters. Matt has never shot 40% at the college level either. It was a hypothetical to demonstrate a point.

I'd also add that saying Jones has "shown more" is as you say a laughably small sample size. It might not even be accurate. Reports from the open practices had strong things to say about Andre and were quieter about Matt.

We have 3 years of evidence that Dawkins brings little to the table but shooting. We have two exhibitions and an open practice worth of evidence that Jones can be a menace defensively and brings more to the table than shooting.

I admitted that it was a small sample size. But in the 3 times I've seen Jones on the court, he's shown me more on the defensive end than Dawkins has shown in 3 years. Will that last? We'll see.