View Poll Results: Which will be the top 5 movie at the boxoffice this winter?

Voters
39. You may not vote on this poll
  • Ender's Game

    20 51.28%
  • Thor: The Dark World

    36 92.31%
  • Hunger Games: Catching Fire

    38 97.44%
  • Frozen

    26 66.67%
  • Oldboy

    0 0%
  • The Hobbit 2

    38 97.44%
  • Saving Mr. Banks

    0 0%
  • Anchorman 2

    25 64.10%
  • Monuments Men

    0 0%
  • Walking With Dinosaurs

    1 2.56%
  • 47 Ronin

    2 5.13%
  • Jack Ryan

    5 12.82%
  • Secret Life of Walter Mitty

    1 2.56%
  • American Hustle

    1 2.56%
  • Other (list in post)

    2 5.13%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 41 to 60 of 138
  1. #41
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I still don't understand why we have to talk about films in this completely brain-dead way in which box office money is the main or only consideration. It's so nihilistic.

    Take Before Midnight, in June, which was amazing.

    For people who don't care at all about artistic merit, it actually made money ($20M on a $3M budget, likely because it was a labor of love for Linklater, Delpy, and Hawke).

    I haven't heard a single thing about that film on this board. Just how much money mediocre blockbusters made.
    You make a couple of really huge logical assumptions in your post there, sparky.

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Thor, Hunger Games and the Hobbit are all locks, as others have said. This competition is really going to come down to the last two slots.

    I did not put Enders Game in my top 5. It's still a little too sci-fi I think to have real mass appeal like Hunger Games and crack the top 5. It will do well, though.

    As the only palatable animated movie of the winter period, I think Frozen will do very well. People like me with small kids who like to go to the movies on Thanksgiving/Christmas day will have this as their only real option.

    I also put in for Anchorman. The original Anchorman was just getting old enough to start to have that cult-like status, and IIRC it's been a few years now since Will Ferrell was in a "blockbuster." I think the movie will suck, but lots of people will still go.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    I just realized my sleeper pick couldn't be picked because it's already been released. So I have to back out of the time travel romance. Too bad. Note that if I could I would definitely pick 12 Years a Slave. I think that will end up with over $120M, and that will be good enough.

    So my revised top 5 are

    Thor (lock)
    Hunger Games (total lock)
    Hobbit (total lock)
    Frozen (lock)

    and...

    ughhh...

    Anchorman 2. I think it will get bad reviews, but the first one made nearly $90M many years ago, and people like comedy's over the holiday period. Boring, but you gotta take something.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I still don't understand why we have to talk about films in this completely brain-dead way in which box office money is the main or only consideration. It's so nihilistic.

    Take Before Midnight, in June, which was amazing.

    For people who don't care at all about artistic merit, it actually made money ($20M on a $3M budget, likely because it was a labor of love for Linklater, Delpy, and Hawke).

    I haven't heard a single thing about that film on this board. Just how much money mediocre blockbusters made.
    Wow - you pop into a thread all about guessing how much money movies will make and complain that the only discussion is about how much money movies make? Why bother clicking on the thread in the first place? Start you own thread about independent film, foreign film, pasta-making, or whatever else interests you.

    I agree with pretty much everyone else as far as the top 5 grossing films goes, but wonder how many folks would have guessed that Gravity would do as well at the box office as it has the last few weeks. The interlopers always make it interesting.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Without getting embroiled in this, I'd like to point out (if no one else has) the disparity between the thread title, "Top 5 Films of Winter"
    vs. the headline of the poll, which is "top movies at the box office." I can therefore see why Throaty has made some of the comments he has...

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    California
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    I just realized my sleeper pick couldn't be picked because it's already been released. So I have to back out of the time travel romance. Too bad.
    Its wide release starts November 8, and its limited theatrical release starts November 1, so I am sure Jason would let the pick stand if you want it.

    But it sounds more like you just realized it is going to be about $100 short of fifth place!

  7. #47
    Bah, thought that "by Oct. 31st" was inclusive. Ah well. FWIW, my picks would have been Hobbit, Thor, Hunger Games (all obvious), Frozen and Jack Ryan.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    Its wide release starts November 8, and its limited theatrical release starts November 1, so I am sure Jason would let the pick stand if you want it.

    But it sounds more like you just realized it is going to be about $100 short of fifth place!
    Yup, I would have gladly let it stand.

    As an aside, I saw About Time a few nights ago at a screening. I had high expectations and it was a sweet, nice film. But, it wasn't great -- wasn't one of the best romantic films I have seen in years -- so I doubt it ends up doing anything close to $150 mil in boxoffice. Heck, I doubt it does half that amount.

    Still, it is a nice film and worth seeing with a spouse or date. You will smile a good bit, laugh some, and wish that Bill Nighy was on screen more (this is the case in everything Bill Nighy does, I think).

    -Jason "if Udaman wants to switch back, he can... but he needs to do it today" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Lynchburg, VA
    I too thought we had through the 31st. My picks are/would have been Hunger Games, Thor, Hobbit, Anchorman, and Frozen.

  10. #50
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    I won't switch back...though I still suspect it will do much better than people think. There's a big market out there for romantic comedies, and this one doesn't have much competition. It's going to have legs.

    Also, my question about its release was based on the fact that it was released in England (and has made $35M or so there). I saw that it had a box office already, and figured it couldn't be picked. But yes, I probably would have switched anyway.

    This winter is easy, easy, EASY....compared to what this summer will be.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Ashburn, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post

    This winter is easy, easy, EASY....compared to what this summer will be.
    Maybe a harder poll would be to guess which films will be selected for Best Picture nominations.
    We'd have to wait awhile to start that one though.

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    Maybe a harder poll would be to guess which films will be selected for Best Picture nominations.
    We'd have to wait awhile to start that one though.
    Here are the nominees for the poll--

    12 Years a Slave
    Captain Philips
    Gravity
    Inside Lleywn Davis
    Wolf of Wall Street
    Saving Mr. Banks
    American Hustle
    Secret Life of Walter Mitty
    August: Osage County
    Dallas Buyers Club
    Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

    Any others? Maybe Blue Jasmine or All is Lost. Perhaps Labor Day too. The Butler?

    The problem is, the Academy can nominate up to 10 movies for Best Pic. It is not limited to just 5. In recent years, they have generally gone with 7 or so nominees but there has been a lot of talk about this year being one worthy of 10 nominees. Anyway, the problem would be how many films we vote for in a poll. Would we vote for 5? 7? 10? How would we figure out what to limit?

    -Jason "Here's a thought, what if we voted for the top 3 or 4 or 5 movies in terms of total Oscar nominations?" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Ashburn, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "Here's a thought, what if we voted for the top 3 or 4 or 5 movies in terms of total Oscar nominations?" Evans
    Total Oscar nominations, including all the technical awards? I would have trouble picking winners if I'm supposed to account for what's winning Best Sound Mixing.

    Of course, I'd probably have trouble picking winners regardless, but that's a different story...

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "Here's a thought, what if we voted for the top 3 or 4 or 5 movies in terms of total Oscar nominations?" Evans
    That would be imperfect, as most things are (the Oscars are really politicized in the industry, not left-right, but politics within the industry). But it would be about ten times better than looking at box office take.

    Yet, it's still subject to the sickness of looking at box office take, insofar as what gets made, and doesn't and what gets into wide release, and what doesn't. Take the Coens. Their sustained excellence has finally got them into the discussion in the last six years. But can you imagine one of their early films getting multiple Oscar noms?

    So, like, The King's Speech. Not bad. Good work Colin Firth. No complaints on my part. But I have a lot of trouble believing there wasn't a better Indy film that I never saw that year. Because I never got to.

    But that would be an improvement over seeing if Dumbass Action Hero Crapola made more money than Animated Fossil Fuel Vehicle Rodeo. Yeah, I'll take Oscar noms over that.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    With an opening weekend of about $28 million, it would appear that Ender's Game has little chance of making our top 5. It got decent reviews and should have some ok word of mouth, but if $150 mil is again the standard to reach our Top 5 of Winter, then Ender is going to come up at least $30 million short (perhaps more like $50 mil short).

    -Jason "does not help Ender that Thor is going to dominate the sci-fi market starting next weekend" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  16. #56
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    With an opening weekend of about $28 million, it would appear that Ender's Game has little chance of making our top 5. It got decent reviews and should have some ok word of mouth, but if $150 mil is again the standard to reach our Top 5 of Winter, then Ender is going to come up at least $30 million short (perhaps more like $50 mil short).

    -Jason "does not help Ender that Thor is going to dominate the sci-fi market starting next weekend" Evans
    Interesting. I voted for Ender's Game (after the top 4 locks everyone chose) mainly because I think Anchorman 2 looks insipid. If Ender's Game doesn't make it, we'll either have a ton of people win the poll with Anchorman 2, or barely anyone.

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Thor = lock

    $86+ mil opening weekend. It will easily surpass the $150 mil it will take to be in the Top 5. It is probably a lock to make $200 mil.

    Having another big sci-fi flick in the market really hurt Ender's Game. It fell 62% from last week and only made $10 mil. It won't even make $100 million when all is said an done. If you picked Ender, you lose.

    -Jason "pretty much all of us knew Thor would make it" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Nashville, TN
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Thor = lock

    $86+ mil opening weekend. It will easily surpass the $150 mil it will take to be in the Top 5. It is probably a lock to make $200 mil.

    Having another big sci-fi flick in the market really hurt Ender's Game. It fell 62% from last week and only made $10 mil. It won't even make $100 million when all is said an done. If you picked Ender, you lose.

    -Jason "pretty much all of us knew Thor would make it" Evans
    Wanted to bump this thread back to the front page with Hunger Games coming out this weekend. I believe they are projecting a $100-$150+ million opening. If that happens it will probably be the highest grossing movie of the winter.

  19. #59
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by NashvilleDevil View Post
    Wanted to bump this thread back to the front page with Hunger Games coming out this weekend. I believe they are projecting a $100-$150+ million opening. If that happens it will probably be the highest grossing movie of the winter.
    If it only does a $150 mil opening, it will be a mild disappointment. Most projections are for it to open north of $165 million. There is some speculation it could approach Iron Man 3's $174 mil which would give it the #2 on the all-time list, but without 3D surcharges and with somewhat limited IMAX demand, that may be a tough mark to reach. It won't beat Avenger's $207 mil, the top opening weekend of all-time.

    -Jason "so far, Thor ($147 mil) is making the top 5 while Ender ($54 mil) is not" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Not sure if anyone is paying attention, but here is what we know...

    Catching Fire made almost $75 mil more over the holiday weekend. It now stands at $296.5 million. The only question left about this film is whether it will pass the $408 mil made by the first Hunger Games film. I think it has an excellent chance to get there.

    Frozen opened strong with a $66.7 mil weekend and a first week total of $93.3 million. Unless there is a major dropoff next weekend, this film also appears to be a lock to make our Top 5. It got a rare A+ cinemascore, a sign that it is a quality pic and that audiences are loving it. That would seem to ensure strong word of mouth. There is really little family film competition through Christmas. I expect this flick to make over $180 mill when all is said and done.

    Thor 2 did a little more than $11 mil this weekend and now stands at $186.7 mil. Interestingly, the original Thor only made $181 mill. It would certainly seem that The Avengers halo is helping Thor 2. It will make over $200 mil and will be in our Top 5.

    So, three of the 5 are all but done, in my opinion. We'll see which other films join them (Hobbit is pretty much a mortal lock).

    -Jason "there are no meaningful new releases next weekend" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

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