View Poll Results: Which will be the top 5 movie at the boxoffice this winter?

Voters
39. You may not vote on this poll
  • Ender's Game

    20 51.28%
  • Thor: The Dark World

    36 92.31%
  • Hunger Games: Catching Fire

    38 97.44%
  • Frozen

    26 66.67%
  • Oldboy

    0 0%
  • The Hobbit 2

    38 97.44%
  • Saving Mr. Banks

    0 0%
  • Anchorman 2

    25 64.10%
  • Monuments Men

    0 0%
  • Walking With Dinosaurs

    1 2.56%
  • 47 Ronin

    2 5.13%
  • Jack Ryan

    5 12.82%
  • Secret Life of Walter Mitty

    1 2.56%
  • American Hustle

    1 2.56%
  • Other (list in post)

    2 5.13%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1
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    Top 5 Films of Winter 2013

    Yikes!!! I neglected my duty and took too long to get this together. So, there is a short window to get your picks in. All picks must be done by Oct 31st, 9 days from now.

    You know the rules -- pick the 5 films that will make the most money at the N American (US and Canada) boxoffice. We will close the contest at the end of January, though the winners may be obvious before then. Feel free to post the reason behind your picks as well and trash talk your friends (Udaman, I am looking at you!!!).

    Here are the films that are the contenders, in order of release date.

    Ender's Game
    Thor: The Dark World
    Hunger Games: Catching Fire
    Frozen
    Oldboy
    The Hobbit 2
    Saving Mr. Banks
    Anchorman 2
    Monuments Men
    Walking With Dinosaurs
    47 Ronin
    Jack Ryan
    Secret Life of Walter Mitty
    American Hustle
    Other

    -Jason "vote now!!" Evans
    Last edited by JBDuke; 10-22-2013 at 07:16 AM. Reason: fixed typo
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  2. #2
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    By the way, it was hard picking my 14 film to be contenders. About 10 or 11 were obvious but the final few could easily have included...

    12 Years a Slave
    Free Birds
    Last Vegas
    Delivery Man
    Wolf of Wall Street
    and perhaps even a few others.

    If you think any of the above will make it, I will not criticize you for that pick.

    Jason "however, there are at least 3 mortal locks and I will criticize you if you fail to pick them" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  3. #3

    My five

    The easy ones for me were Thor and Hunger Games. I think Frozen's going to do well with the family set over the holiday breaks. Anchorman 2 could be awful, but I bet it still does big box office. Hobbit 2 makes the list, although I think it's much weaker than (I suspect) Jason does.

  4. #4
    Jason I have read that Wolf of Wall St has been pushed back to 2014. Scorsese is having difficulty getting the movie down to a 2:30 running time.

    Edit: http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-77879997/

    Looks like Jack Ryan is getting pushed to 2014.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by NashvilleDevil View Post
    Jason I have read that Wolf of Wall St has been pushed back to 2014. Scorsese is having difficulty getting the movie down to a 2:30 running time.

    Edit: http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1.../p2p-77879997/

    Looks like Jack Ryan is getting pushed to 2014.
    Link didn't work for me, but I'm guessing you were posting: http://www.latimes.com/entertainment...#axzz2iStXoviM

    Wolf of Wall St is releasing Xmas Day.

  6. #6
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    Ender's Game

    Ender's Game is one of my favorite books of all time. I just re-read it in anticipation of the movie. I have been wanting this movie to be made for years (and years). Usually when I really like a book, I really don't enjoy the movie. Nuances are missed. Sections are omitted. But still, I am trying to remain optimistically pessimistic. That is, I'm lowering my expectations, anticipating a movie I will hate, so that I will enjoy a movie that isn't too bad. Well, that's what I keep telling myself. I'm hoping that the awe and wonder of a modern-effects-filled large screen experience will outweigh whatever they mucked up with the story and characters that I love.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by 94duke View Post
    Ender's Game is one of my favorite books of all time. I just re-read it in anticipation of the movie. I have been wanting this movie to be made for years (and years). Usually when I really like a book, I really don't enjoy the movie. Nuances are missed. Sections are omitted. But still, I am trying to remain optimistically pessimistic. That is, I'm lowering my expectations, anticipating a movie I will hate, so that I will enjoy a movie that isn't too bad. Well, that's what I keep telling myself. I'm hoping that the awe and wonder of a modern-effects-filled large screen experience will outweigh whatever they mucked up with the story and characters that I love.
    I don't know.... as much as my childhood was framed by Han Solo and Indiana Jones, Harrison Ford looks *awkward* in the trailers for this. I adored the book too, but I'm not optimistic.

    And '12 Years a Slave' certainly won't win the box office in November/December, but I bet it picks up in January/February with all of the Oscar talk.

  8. #8
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    At the moment, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit -- starring Chris Pine, Kiera Knightly, Kevin Costner and directed by Kenneth Branaugh -- is scheduled to be released in late December of 2013. If you vote for it and it gets moved, you lose. I went with films expected to be big boxoffice draws at the time the poll was constructed.

    -Jason "I suspect Shadow Recruit will be a big hit when it is released" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  9. #9
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    Fayetteville, NC
    Here are my picks and the reason I made them.
    Hobbit 2: Despite the naysayers on this board the last one made a ton of money and this one actually has the dragon.
    Hunger Games 2: The follow-up to the mega-smash hit. Plenty of action to keep the guys happy and a strong female lead to bring in the ladies.
    Thor 2: What's a best of list without at least one superhero movie.
    Here's where it gets tricky.
    Enders Game: If the movie is anything like the book then the hardcore fan base should be pleased and will support the movie. I also like the fact that it gets a major headstart on the competition. If it's halfway decent it should have a long fruitful run.
    Frozen: Another staple for the best of list is a kiddie flick and this is it.

    I'll say that if Enders Game doesn't make it, I like the chances of 47 Ronin to sneak onto the list.

    Not very pleased with Spike Lee doing a rip-off of Oldboy. The original is a classic and the trilogy is excellent, with Sympathy for Mr. Vengence being my favorite. While Django did well last winter, I'm afraid the R rating and the theme and topics of Oldboy will keep it from making this year's list.

  10. #10
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    Wow, in a huge shock George Clooney and Sony just announced that Monuments Men will not be opening in 2013. Clooney and Grant Heslov say they cannot get the visual effects done in time for the film's Dec 81th release date. Sony is now looking at putting this sure-fire Oscar contender out as a February release. WOW! It will not be eligible for next year's Academy Awards either (12 Years A Slave is dancing a jig right now).

    I don't think anyone was going to vote for it in this contest anyway, but a vote now would be wasted. Sigh.

    -Jason "I really see no more than 6 or maybe 7 films that have a chance in this contest" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Wow, in a huge shock George Clooney and Sony just announced that Monuments Men will not be opening in 2013. Clooney and Grant Heslov say they cannot get the visual effects done in time for the film's Dec 81th release date. Sony is now looking at putting this sure-fire Oscar contender out as a February release. WOW! It will not be eligible for next year's Academy Awards either (12 Years A Slave is dancing a jig right now).

    I don't think anyone was going to vote for it in this contest anyway, but a vote now would be wasted. Sigh.

    -Jason "I really see no more than 6 or maybe 7 films that have a chance in this contest" Evans
    Why wouldn't it be eligible for the 2015 Oscars?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Wow, in a huge shock George Clooney and Sony just announced that Monuments Men will not be opening in 2013. Clooney and Grant Heslov say they cannot get the visual effects done in time for the film's Dec 81th release date. Sony is now looking at putting this sure-fire Oscar contender out as a February release. WOW! It will not be eligible for next year's Academy Awards either (12 Years A Slave is dancing a jig right now).

    I don't think anyone was going to vote for it in this contest anyway, but a vote now would be wasted. Sigh.

    -Jason "I really see no more than 6 or maybe 7 films that have a chance in this contest" Evans
    That's unfortunate - my wife and I saw the trailer for it during Captain Philipps and we're both excited about seeing it this (late)? winter.

  13. #13
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    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Why wouldn't it be eligible for the 2015 Oscars?
    Jason meant the Oscar ceremony in March 2014. Presumably The Monuments Men would be eligible for the ceremony held in February 2015.

    I wanted to vary a little from the early voting, but there's no point. It's a small crop of legitimate box office hits this winter. I picked Frozen and 4 sequels:

    1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. The first one was, in my opinion, the weirdest film ever to make $400 million. It was Coal Miner's Daughter but with more archery and child death. This one has a more expansive story, broader appeal, and a better release date. Also, it's easier to sell a revolution than a couple of kids threatening suicide. ($400-450 million)

    2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug. I don't get it. Peter Jackson is essentially admitting to creative bankruptcy by latching onto J.R.R. Tolkien and seeing 3-hour movies where others see footnotes. Not only that, he's making movies that look so realistic that they hurt your eyes. You're paying him to go blind! Stop it! ($250-300 million)

    3. Thor: The Dark World. The first one made $181 million, and not many people actually liked it. Then came The Avengers, and Chris Hemsworth and Tom Hiddleston are now household faces, if not names. They should make some honest posters and be done with it. "Thor. He takes his shirt off again." "Loki. Only in 3 scenes, but you'll love them." "Jane Foster. Still the weakest part of the story, not that you care." "Darcy Lewis. We promise tighter blouses this time." ($200-250 million)

    4. Frozen. The only animated film this holiday season that's not about birds that you eat this holiday season. ($175-225 million)

    5. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues. This would be a real wild card if it were released in the summer. It could fall way short of expectations or exceed them to a filthy, Sex Panther degree. Even now I think it could go as high as #3 or as low as #6, depending on how holiday audiences feel about the whole Tom Hanks-is-Walt Disney thing. But it's still a safe top 5 guess based on our curiosity of either the returning characters or the appearances by Kanye West, Harrison Ford, Tina Fey, Greg Kinnear, Liam Neeson... ($150-200 million)

    I guess Saving Mr. Banks has an outside shot of breaking through, but the title is ponderous and films about the making of films haven't had mass appeal. I did not seriously consider any other film on this list.

  14. #14
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    I'm sure I'll be wrong but here goes...

    In no particular order I voted for:

    -Thor - If this doesn't make the top 5 I'm never playing this game again.
    -Hobbit - Just the fan base alone should propel this one into our list
    -Hunger Games - Same thing...first one wasn't bad so it shouldn't fall off that much.
    -Ender's Game - This is a total guess on my part because I have no interest in this. However, my sister has been salivating for months for this so I'm going with her here.
    -Frozen - Gotta have a kiddie flick in any of these contests right?

    I did not vote for Anchorman because even though I liked the first one it only made $85 million domestically and a lot of folks either loved it or hated it. It has been so long (2004) since the first one came out that I just don't think this is going to be a huge hit. With that being said, I am excited about seeing it.

    I might have voted for Monuments Men if it had not been moved back. I saw the trailer when I saw Prisoners the other day and I thought it looked great!
    "The future ain't what it used to be."

  15. #15
    Went with the obvious:

    Thor 2
    Hobbitt 2
    Hunger Games: Catching Fire

    Kid Fare:
    Frozen - I believe it is the same team that did Tangled and that was a pretty big hit.

    Who Knows Pick?:
    Jack Ryan - I think this stays with the 12/25 release date. Even though this could be similar to the Bourne movies, Jack Ryan is a favorite literary and movie character and this origin story has to be better than the Affleck one.

  16. #16
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    I still don't understand why we have to talk about films in this completely brain-dead way in which box office money is the main or only consideration. It's so nihilistic.

    Take Before Midnight, in June, which was amazing.

    For people who don't care at all about artistic merit, it actually made money ($20M on a $3M budget, likely because it was a labor of love for Linklater, Delpy, and Hawke).

    I haven't heard a single thing about that film on this board. Just how much money mediocre blockbusters made.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I still don't understand why we have to talk about films in this completely brain-dead way in which box office money is the main or only consideration. It's so nihilistic.

    Take Before Midnight, in June, which was amazing.

    For people who don't care at all about artistic merit, it actually made money ($20M on a $3M budget, likely because it was a labor of love for Linklater, Delpy, and Hawke).

    I haven't heard a single thing about that film on this board. Just how much money mediocre blockbusters made.
    I decided to respond because your comment was more thoughtful that the movie equivalent of "I don't own a TV."

    Americans love to keep score. As if the regular NFL weren't enough, we have gambling and fantasy leagues to keep score of the same action in other ways.

    You can't quantify a good movie. Critical mass is a limited measure, and has no effect on personal preference. You like Before Midnight, someone else likes Blue Jasmine, another likes Fruitvale Station. The three of you can have a meaningless shout-fest about which is best and accomplish not a whole lot. (That might be a good thread, though: Summer Indie Movies 2013.)

    You can, however, quantify a popular movie. People on this board like to talk about movies, and they like to keep score. This is the easiest way to go about doing both. For the record, I've gone from seeing about 50-60 movies a year to about 5. Maybe I've outgrown the cinema. I find most blockbuster-type movies, whether good or bad, to be unnecessary. But I still enjoy making predictions in these seasonal contests, and always learn something about what combination of premise, starpower, and marketing can suck in the largest crowds. It's a little pathetic, I guess, but still fun.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I decided to respond because your comment was more thoughtful than the movie equivalent of "I don't own a TV."

    Americans love to keep score. ...
    That's one ...

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I still don't understand why we have to talk about films in this completely brain-dead way in which box office money is the main or only consideration. It's so nihilistic.

    Take Before Midnight, in June, which was amazing.

    For people who don't care at all about artistic merit, it actually made money ($20M on a $3M budget, likely because it was a labor of love for Linklater, Delpy, and Hawke).

    I haven't heard a single thing about that film on this board. Just how much money mediocre blockbusters made.
    Throaty,

    I know you love to grouse about how empty-headed pop culture has become. I get it. But, I think your efforts are being wasted in this case.

    This thread is about guessing at hard, factual, measurable numbers as they relate to the movie industry. Many of us around these parts love films and one way we express that love is to wonder which films will be successful on a mass market basis. But, you seem to think that this is the only way we talk about films. Nothing could be further from the truth.

    Anyone who wants to can start a thread about a particular movie. We do not only obsess over boxoffice. Right now on the boards there is a thread talking about the merits of seeing Gravity in 3D and/or IMAX. That same thread includes various opinions on the quality of Gravity versus some of the other films currently in release. We also have a thread discussing the quality of the men who have played James Bond over the decades. We've got a discussion of two strong Oscar contenders, Capt Phillips and 12 Years a Slave, that probably does not mention boxoffice at all. Someone informed the community about a powerful documentary on The Killing Fields and urged others to go see it. Even in the realm of boxoffice, there is a conversation about how Hollywood projects boxoffice figures and whether there are problems in a system that potentially weighs films down with unhealthy expectations.

    In short, we talk about movies in many, many different ways and on many, many different levels. To pick out this thread (and the other poll we do in the summer) and say that our movie discussions are "brain dead" is not only rudely judgmental, it is just plain wrong.

    As is said many times around these parts, if you don't like the content of a particular thread, you need not read it. But I think it is just wrong to come to a thread and blast the folks who are reading and participating in it in the way you have, especially when your argument is so easily proven to be wrong by merely looking at the threads on the first page of the Off-Topic board.

    -Jason "if you wanted to talk about Before Midnight, no one was stopping you from starting a thread on it when it was in theaters. Don't blame us because you never got the conversation going" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I know you love to grouse about how empty-headed pop culture has become. I get it.
    Apparently you don't, because that isn't my point, or an assertion I've made.

    My point is that assessing box-office take is a nihilistic way to approach a work of art. Titanic made gobs of money. It was also intensely mediocre. Winter's Bone was amazing. Hardly anyone saw it. There's a tremendous power structure in Hollywood that reflects, to some degree, the overall power structure in the United States. If you don't believe me, look at all the literature on how African Americans are portrayed in film. 42 was pretty disturbing, in an Amistad-ish way. The business of Hollywood is like any other big business, in that it has a lot of perverse incentive structures. Movies get made or don't get made, or narrow-released or wide-released based on craven business concerns rather than on artistic merit. One of the main concerns is "what are middle class white people of median income willing to look at on screen?" Art is subordinated for business.

    I won't say any more, so as not to get too PPB-ish.

    "if you wanted to talk about Before Midnight, no one was stopping you from starting a thread on it when it was in theaters. Don't blame us because you never got the conversation going"
    I thought about it at the time, but didn't bother because:

    1) It was in a somewhat limited release, so I was pessimistic that many people on the board had seen it, and

    2) Someone would inevitably ask me how much money it made, as though that were some sort of yardstick for whether it was any good, thereby angering me.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

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