The 2013 Bowl Selection Vigil

[TampaDuke]

Heh, I had this slightly reversed with the right outcome.

After Rose and Sugar get first pick of the replacements for the National Title teams, The Orange bowl picks FIRST. At that point, you have the following:

Rose: Stanford v OSU
Sugar: SEC v XXX
Orange: FSU v XXX
Fiesta: B12 v XXX

Orange now has the choice of an at-large - not going to be an acc team vs FSU - or UCF/Fresno. Odds are it picks a big name school as it's a bigger draw. That leaves Fiesta and Sugar with no choice but to pick UCF/Fresno.

I can't say that I have the slightest clue about how bowls decide who to invite, but I am curious as to why UCF wouldn't get consideration from the Orange in this scenario.

In terms of a bigger draw, are bowls more concerned with the TV audience? Or game attendance and tourism to the City? Since UCF is not a big name, I can see them passed over if TV is the driving force (though it'll be the only bowl game on at the time regardless of participants). If attendance and local buzz are the goals, though, UCF would seem a decent choice given it's something like the second largest university in the nation outside of online schools (and considerably larger than FSU and UF, for example), and the proximity to Miami is ideal.

It's not quite FSU versus Florida, but rivalries among Florida's lesser-known universities (UCF, USF, FIU and FAU) are starting to build some momentum.

[loran16]

I can't say that I have the slightest clue about how bowls decide who to invite, but I am curious as to why UCF wouldn't get consideration from the Orange in this scenario.

In terms of a bigger draw, are bowls more concerned with the TV audience? Or game attendance and tourism to the City? Since UCF is not a big name, I can see them passed over if TV is the driving force (though it'll be the only bowl game on at the time regardless of participants). If attendance and local buzz are the goals, though, UCF would seem a decent choice given it's something like the second largest university in the nation outside of online schools (and considerably larger than FSU and UF, for example), and the proximity to Miami is ideal.

It's not quite FSU versus Florida, but rivalries among Florida's lesser-known universities (UCF, USF, FIU and FAU) are starting to build some momentum.

TV. Tourism to the City is basically minor and the tickets are sold to the schools and public regardless of whether they're used (the schools are forced to eat unused tickets).

UCF is a smaller draw than say Michigan State or Wisconsin (likely possibilities). And those fanbases will travel as well.

[brevity]

Would your rather:

Be in a lower ranked bowl and win

or

Be in a higher ranked bowl and lose

NOT AN OPTION: (win in a higher ranked bowl AKA "GET AN A IN AN AP CLASS")

The straightforward answer to your question? Win in a lower-ranked bowl. It would be historical for the program and a source of momentum for returning players, if there is such a thing as offseason momentum.

The more nuanced answer to your question, and one I haven't seen yet, is that I want them in whichever bowl (higher or lower) has the best name recognition, long-term. It bugs me ever so slightly that Duke's bowl appearance in 1995 was the Hall of Fame Bowl, which no longer exists under that name -- it's now the Outback Bowl. And I have a feeling that the Belk Bowl will not always be called that. ("Yes, Duke is here in Charlotte at its first Bank of America Bowl, but they were here five seasons ago, back when it was called [footnote asterisk snore everyone stopped listening].")

The fly-by-night nature of naming bowl games has negative repercussions on history. It's like being the NIT champion back when that was the more glamorous postseason basketball tournament: great to witnesses, not so great in record books. Over time, and putting aside the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls, I doubt many of us will be able to tell which bowls were better than others. It would be nice to make a bowl that still meant the same thing, say, 20 years later. (In 2033, when people will have forgotten about the BCS, Northern Illinois can still brag about making the Orange Bowl in its 2012-2013 season.)

[BlueDevilinNYC]

...is that I want them in whichever bowl (higher or lower) has the best name recognition, long-term.

So I'm guessing you would be upset if we ever ended up at the "GoDaddy Bowl"?

[Olympic Fan]

I can't say that I have the slightest clue about how bowls decide who to invite, but I am curious as to why UCF wouldn't get consideration from the Orange in this scenario.

In terms of a bigger draw, are bowls more concerned with the TV audience? Or game attendance and tourism to the City? Since UCF is not a big name, I can see them passed over if TV is the driving force (though it'll be the only bowl game on at the time regardless of participants). If attendance and local buzz are the goals, though, UCF would seem a decent choice given it's something like the second largest university in the nation outside of online schools (and considerably larger than FSU and UF, for example), and the proximity to Miami is ideal.

It's not quite FSU versus Florida, but rivalries among Florida's lesser-known universities (UCF, USF, FIU and FAU) are starting to build some momentum.

For the BCS -- TV ratings absolutely trump fannies in the seat. It's different with some of the smaller bowls.

UCF ain't going to the Orange Bowl.

Reminds me of the explanation the old Cotton Bowl boss (back when the Cotton was one of the Big Four bowls) gave to a Houston reporter when he wanted to know why a lower ranked Texas was invited over a great Houston team. "Son," he said. "When Texas plays in the Cotton Bowl, their fans come down, stay in the best hotels and eat at the best restaurants. When we get Texas A&M, their fans drive down the day of the game and stop at the 7-11 and buy snacks. When we have Houston, their fans come down and rob the 7-11 on the way to the game."

The Orange Bowl wants TV exposure. A year after getting stuck with Northern Illinois, no chance in the world they take a no-name UCF team.

[brevity]

So I'm guessing you would be upset if we ever ended up at the "GoDaddy Bowl"?

I had to look that up. That is a real thing. Wow.

Put it this way: Northern Illinois won the 2012 GoDaddy Bowl and lost the 2013 Orange Bowl. Which do you think will be remembered?

[wilson]

Northern Illinois won the 2012 GoDaddy Bowl and lost the 2013 Orange Bowl. Which do you think will be remembered?

Neither one (seriously).

[brevity]

Neither one (seriously).

Apologies. I took my own statement out of context. I meant among Northern Illinois' fanbase:

It would be nice to make a bowl that still meant the same thing, say, 20 years later. (In 2033, when people will have forgotten about the BCS, Northern Illinois can still brag about making the Orange Bowl in its 2012-2013 season.)

Put it this way: Northern Illinois won the 2012 GoDaddy Bowl and lost the 2013 Orange Bowl. Which do you think will be remembered?

[sagegrouse]

I had to look that up. That is a real thing. Wow.

Put it this way: Northern Illinois won the 2012 GoDaddy Bowl and lost the 2013 Orange Bowl. Which do you think will be remembered?

Neither one (seriously).

Northern Illinois will remember both; no one else will remember either one.

sage

[throatybeard]

Reminds me of the explanation the old Cotton Bowl boss (back when the Cotton was one of the Big Four bowls) gave to a Houston reporter when he wanted to know why a lower ranked Texas was invited over a great Houston team. "Son," he said. "When Texas plays in the Cotton Bowl, their fans come down, stay in the best hotels and eat at the best restaurants. When we get Texas A&M, their fans drive down the day of the game and stop at the 7-11 and buy snacks. When we have Houston, their fans come down and rob the 7-11 on the way to the game."

How incredibly snotty.

Wouldn't surprise me if said Cotton Bowl boss was exactly the sort of UT alum that is so ubiquitous that four schools saw fit to get the heck out of the conference to get away from UT.

[Duvall]

Well, the path to a second BCS bid for the ACC just got simpler.

[-bdbd]

Yep. Stanford's big win over the Ducks tonight was hugely good news to Duke and the ACC. If FSU wins out - the announcers mentioned that they play no more opponents who currently have winning records (until the ACCC) - then they will play in the National Championship game. That means, probably, the ACC runner-up would play in the Orange (I think), and everyone else in the ACC moves up a slot.

This was a very good night for FSU, the ACC as a whole, and certainly for Duke.

[Olympic Fan]

Yep. Stanford's big win over the Ducks tonight was hugely good news to Duke and the ACC. If FSU wins out - the announcers mentioned that they play no more opponents who currently have winning records (until the ACCC) - then they will play in the National Championship game. That means, probably, the ACC runner-up would play in the Orange (I think), and everyone else in the ACC moves up a slot.

This was a very good night for FSU, the ACC as a whole, and certainly for Duke.

While you are right that FSU now has its fate in its own hands -- if the 'Noles win out, they will definitely play in the national title game -- you are wrong about the Orange Bowl and the process for getting a second ACC team in the BCS.

What happens if FSU wins the ACC title game and is selected for the national title game, is that it allows the Orange Bowl to pick TWO at-large teams. It does not have to be -- and almost certainly won't be -- the loser in the ACC title game.

The way it words is that the bowl that loses the No. 1 BCS seed gets the first at large pick ... the bowl that loses the second BCS seed gets the second at large pick. Then it goes by predetermined order -- and this year, the Orange Bowl gets the next pick.

Let's say that the title game is No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 FSU.

That means the Sugar Bowl would get the first at large pick and the Orange the second and third. If FSU is No. 1, then the Orange gets 1 and 3.

I think that Clemson has a much better chance to play in the Orange than the ACC runnerup ... if the Tigers win out (an that means beating South Carolina). At 11-1, they are almost a sure bet to be in the BCS mix, probably the Orange.

That would be it for the ACC -- you can't have more than two teams in one conference in the BCS mix. If Clemson were to stumble down the stretch. Miami would have a chance -- but the best the Canes could finish is 11-2 (the only way they could be 12-1 would be to beat FSU in the title game and that would obviously knock the "Noles out of the title game).

I'm trying to think of other BCS at large teams (there are four in all). Either Fresno or Northern Illinois will get one spot (but not both). Notre Dame has a very outside shot (they have to finish top 8 in the BCS standings). Clemson at 11-1 is a lock. Oregon at 11-1 gets another spot. If Ohio State loses the Big Ten title game to Michigan State, they'd be in the mix. Texas A&M, because of Manzel, will get a bid if they win out to finish 11-1. Who else? I'm assuming Missouri gets at least one more loss vs. Alabama in the SEC title game. Same with Auburn, getting a loss in the last regulars season game with Bama ... The SEC will get two BCS teams -- I'm betting that Texas A&M will be the second.

Just guessing, but if I had to pick the BCS today:
Title Game: Alabama vs. FSU
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Texas A&M vs. AAC champ (Houston, Louisville or UCF)
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Fresno or Northern Illinous

[matt1]

While you are right that FSU now has its fate in its own hands -- if the 'Noles win out, they will definitely play in the national title game -- you are wrong about the Orange Bowl and the process for getting a second ACC team in the BCS.

What happens if FSU wins the ACC title game and is selected for the national title game, is that it allows the Orange Bowl to pick TWO at-large teams. It does not have to be -- and almost certainly won't be -- the loser in the ACC title game.

The way it words is that the bowl that loses the No. 1 BCS seed gets the first at large pick ... the bowl that loses the second BCS seed gets the second at large pick. Then it goes by predetermined order -- and this year, the Orange Bowl gets the next pick.

Let's say that the title game is No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 2 FSU.

That means the Sugar Bowl would get the first at large pick and the Orange the second and third. If FSU is No. 1, then the Orange gets 1 and 3.

I think that Clemson has a much better chance to play in the Orange than the ACC runnerup ... if the Tigers win out (an that means beating South Carolina). At 11-1, they are almost a sure bet to be in the BCS mix, probably the Orange.

That would be it for the ACC -- you can't have more than two teams in one conference in the BCS mix. If Clemson were to stumble down the stretch. Miami would have a chance -- but the best the Canes could finish is 11-2 (the only way they could be 12-1 would be to beat FSU in the title game and that would obviously knock the "Noles out of the title game).

I'm trying to think of other BCS at large teams (there are four in all). Either Fresno or Northern Illinois will get one spot (but not both). Notre Dame has a very outside shot (they have to finish top 8 in the BCS standings). Clemson at 11-1 is a lock. Oregon at 11-1 gets another spot. If Ohio State loses the Big Ten title game to Michigan State, they'd be in the mix. Texas A&M, because of Manzel, will get a bid if they win out to finish 11-1. Who else? I'm assuming Missouri gets at least one more loss vs. Alabama in the SEC title game. Same with Auburn, getting a loss in the last regulars season game with Bama ... The SEC will get two BCS teams -- I'm betting that Texas A&M will be the second.

Just guessing, but if I had to pick the BCS today:
Title Game: Alabama vs. FSU
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Texas A&M vs. AAC champ (Houston, Louisville or UCF)
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Fresno or Northern Illinous

Only problem is that A&M already has 2 losses- they lost to Alabama and Auburn (they must be cursing the state of Alabama!). The SEC will get two bids, but the second will be Auburn, Mizzou, or South Carolina. LSU could get back into that contention with a win tomorrow.

[BlueDevilinNYC]

Not much love from CBS, who has us as the #8 ACC team and going to the Military Bowl:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefoot...ls/predictions

With FSU moving into the NC game and Clemson taking an at-large spot against Oregon in the Orange, Duke moves up one bowl spot and is now projected for the Independence bowl in Shreveport as the ACC #7 against Vandy.

Is it just me, or is Jerry Palm way off with this projection? I see no way we fall this far, even if we lose three of our next four games.

[wilson]

Is it just me, or is Jerry Palm way off with this projection? I see no way we fall this far, even if we lose three of our next four games.

It would seem that way, but Palm was late to the party in the first place. He didn't have us in any bowl until about 10 days ago.

[devildeac]

Take care of business tomorrow at WW. Then wait for the Clemson-GT game next Thursday night. Then we get Miami. I hope Cut has the guys focused on NCSU and NCSU only this week.

[ForkFondler]

Take care of business tomorrow at WW. Then wait for the Clemson-GT game next Thursday night. Then we get Miami. I hope Cut has the guys focused on NCSU and NCSU only this week.

Right, a win tomorrow will guarantee a winning record on the year. That is an important milestone all by itself.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Take care of business tomorrow at WW. Then wait for the Clemson-GT game next Thursday night. Then we get Miami. I hope Cut has the guys focused on NCSU and NCSU only this week.

If anybody can lead the team to focus as they need to this week, Coach Cutcliffe and the staff can do it!

[CameronBornAndBred]

With FSU moving into the NC game and Clemson taking an at-large spot against Oregon in the Orange, Duke moves up one bowl spot and is now projected for the Independence bowl in Shreveport as the ACC #7 against Vandy.

Is it just me, or is Jerry Palm way off with this projection? I see no way we fall this far, even if we lose three of our next four games.

He also has UNC going as the 4th ACC team to the Sun bowl, so I discount ANY of his predictions.