The 2013 Bowl Selection Vigil

[matt1]

Here are ESPN's two "experts" picking bowl projections...


http://espn.go.com/college-football/bowls/projections

One has Duke vs USC in the Sun Bowl in El Paso.
The other has Duke vs Miss State in the Music City Bowl in Nashville.

Also of interest, while neither has FSU in the National Championship game, one has two ACC teams (FSU and Clemson) in BCS Bowls, while the other has just FSU. Oddly, it is the prognosticator who only has one ACC team in BCS Bowls who picks Duke for the higher-ranked Sun Bowl.

If his pecking order is true and two ACC teams go to the BCS, that would put Duke in Orlando for the Russell Athletic Bowl, which is where I have us going right now. If we win the ACC Coastal (but lose to FSU), we will probably go to Atlanta against a good SEC team (I currently say Mizzou) if 2 ACC teams are in the BCS or, if only one is in the BCS, we would likely go to Orlando against the #2 team from the American (I have Louisville).

Currently, I say that we would play against:

Orange: Likely someone like Fresno St. or UCF
Chick-fil-A: Missouri- would be the perfect opportunity to prove ourselves
Russell Athletic: Louisville- future ACC matchup
Sun: Oregon St.
Belk: Houston
Music City: Georgia (many also have Ole Miss here)
V100 (Shreveport): Vanderbilt- this would be a fun matchup, but in a lower bowl
Military: Tulane (though we will not drop this far unless we are 6-6)

[Duvall]

If his pecking order is true and two ACC teams go to the BCS, that would put Duke in Orlando for the Russell Athletic Bowl, which is where I have us going right now. If we win the ACC Coastal (but lose to FSU), we will probably go to Atlanta against a good SEC team (I currently say Mizzou) if 2 ACC teams are in the BCS or, if only one is in the BCS, we would likely go to Orlando against the #2 team from the American (I have Louisville).

Currently, I say that we would play against:

Orange: Likely someone like Fresno St. or UCF
Chick-fil-A: Missouri- would be the perfect opportunity to prove ourselves
Russell Athletic: Louisville- future ACC matchup
Sun: Oregon St.
Belk: Houston
Music City: Georgia (many also have Ole Miss here)
V100 (Shreveport): Vanderbilt- this would be a fun matchup, but in a lower bowl
Military: Tulane (though we will not drop this far unless we are 6-6)

There's no pecking order, only the bowls picking the team they want subject to the one-win rule. So don't get your hopes up for anything "better" than the Sun Bowl regardless of how Duke finishes.

[throatybeard]

One has Duke vs USC in the Sun Bowl in El Paso.
The other has Duke vs Miss State in the Music City Bowl in Nashville

I have trouble believing Mississippi State will be eligible. They're 4-4, but the remaining schedule is at Texas A&M, Alabama, at Arkansas, and Ole Miss. The only one of those that sounds like maybe a win to me is Arkansas.

[Duvall]

I have trouble believing Mississippi State will be eligible. They're 4-4, but the remaining schedule is at Texas A&M, Alabama, at Arkansas, and Ole Miss. The only one of those that sounds like maybe a win to me is Arkansas.

He meant Ole Miss - at least that's what the ESPN picks have now for the Music City Bowl.

[BigWayne]

If his pecking order is true and two ACC teams go to the BCS, that would put Duke in Orlando for the Russell Athletic Bowl, which is where I have us going right now. If we win the ACC Coastal (but lose to FSU), we will probably go to Atlanta against a good SEC team (I currently say Mizzou) if 2 ACC teams are in the BCS or, if only one is in the BCS, we would likely go to Orlando against the #2 team from the American (I have Louisville).

Currently, I say that we would play against:

Orange: Likely someone like Fresno St. or UCF
Chick-fil-A: Missouri- would be the perfect opportunity to prove ourselves
Russell Athletic: Louisville- future ACC matchup
Sun: Oregon St.
Belk: Houston
Music City: Georgia (many also have Ole Miss here)
V100 (Shreveport): Vanderbilt- this would be a fun matchup, but in a lower bowl
Military: Tulane (though we will not drop this far unless we are 6-6)

Orange Bowl gets to pick first for the last three slots. They will not pick Fresno. They might pick UCF for a local draw if they get stuck with Duke. If they get Miami or Clemson, they will most likely pick a B10 or B12 team. Orange Bowl picking priority means that chances of two ACC BCS teams without FSU being in the championship game are very low if Fresno or Northern Illinois get a BCS slot. To free up that at-large spot, both of them have to lose a game in the next few weeks.

[Olympic Fan]

Orange Bowl gets to pick first for the last three slots. They will not pick Fresno. They might pick UCF for a local draw if they get stuck with Duke. If they get Miami or Clemson, they will most likely pick a B10 or B12 team. Orange Bowl picking priority means that chances of two ACC BCS teams without FSU being in the championship game are very low if Fresno or Northern Illinois get a BCS slot. To free up that at-large spot, both of them have to lose a game in the next few weeks.

Get real ... the Orange Bowl got stuck with Northern Illinois last year because they had the last at large pick and they had to take the non-BCS qualifier.

This year, they get the FIRST at large pick. No way they pick Fresno, Northern Illinois or UCF -- whichever one qualifies (which is not a given).

The first at large team is likely to be Louisville or maybe Stanford. It will be Ohio State if the Buckeyes lose the Big 10 title game ... or it will be Alabama or Oregon if they lose the conference title games. Texas A&M would be attractive if they win out.

But you can bet it will be a big-name BCS team.

Just to be clear -- no more than ONE non-BCS team can qualify -- so it will be Fresno or Northern Illinois (whichever is ranked higher). Not both.

There are 10 BCS berths ... six go to automatic qualifiers (the Big East still gets one). One will probably go to Fresno or NIU. Notre Dame gets one if they finish in the top eight of the BCS (they might if they upset Stanford to end the season). That leaves two at large spots (probably three because Notre Dame is a long-shot). If the Big Four -- Alabama, Oregon, FSU and Ohio State -- win their conference title games it will be interesting for the 2-3 BCS at large teams.

I think Clemson is a lock, IF the Tigers win out to finish 11-1 ... but not in the Orange Bowl -- unless FSU gets the title game, then the Orange would very likely take Clemson.

[Wander]

This year, they get the FIRST at large pick. No way they pick Fresno, Northern Illinois or UCF -- whichever one qualifies (which is not a given).

Just to be clear -- no more than ONE non-BCS team can qualify -- so it will be Fresno or Northern Illinois (whichever is ranked higher). Not both.

UCF is a BCS team these days.

There can be more than one non-BCS team qualifying - TCU and Boise State played each other in a BCS bowl a few years back - although I agree it's EXTREMELY unlikely that it will happen this year.

[Olympic Fan]

UCF is a BCS team these days.

There can be more than one non-BCS team qualifying - TCU and Boise State played each other in a BCS bowl a few years back - although I agree it's EXTREMELY unlikely that it will happen this year.

The rules specifically state that no more than one non-BCS team can qualify for an at large bid:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

There are a couple of bizarre contingencies that would allow two non-BCS teams (for instance, if non-BCS teams finish 1-2 in the BCS standings), but nothing that would happen in the real world.

I understand that UCF is in the AAC (which still holds the Big East automatic bid). That's why I said that Fresno and Northern Illinois were vying for the at large bid.

UCF is fighting with Houston and Louisville for the AAC's automatic bid ... they COULD earn an at large bid, along with Fresno/NIU, but again, in the real world, they won't -- only if they win their conference automatic bid.

The 2-3 open at large bids will go to Clemson or a top SEC, Pac 12, Big Ten or maybe Big 12 team.

Note: Also no more than two BCS bids per conference

[vick]

The rules specifically state that no more than one non-BCS team can qualify for an at large bid:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

There are a couple of bizarre contingencies that would allow two non-BCS teams (for instance, if non-BCS teams finish 1-2 in the BCS standings), but nothing that would happen in the real world.

Maybe I'm being dumb but the way I read the rule is that there aren't two automatic non-BCS teams, not a rule that forbids two from receiving bids (though this is all quibbling, since the odds of two being taken even if they can be is low, as Wander said).

[throatybeard]

He meant Ole Miss - at least that's what the ESPN picks have now for the Music City Bowl.

OK, nice save there. Makes more sense.

This still amazes me. Who the heck gets Michigan/Michigan State or UNC/NC State confused with each other? I mean, I get that Mississippi ain't exactly the most famous place in the world, but one school is all about engineering and maroon. The other is all about Faulkner and confederate bears or something.

Ole Miss actually sells T-shirts that say "the Harvard of the South." MSU sells T-shirts that say "the People's University."

The MSU take on OM is that they're composed of elitist dipwads who aren't even that elite, and are much more racist.

The OM take on MSU is similar to the garbage you hear Duke and Carolina people say about NC State. Something about guys humping tractors and bovines. Really condescending junk.

MSU played, and I think beat, Wake Forest in this bowl in 2011.

I still don't understand how anyone mixes up OM and MSU with each other. I've never lived in Oregon, and I can tell Oregon and Oregon State apart.

[BigWayne]

Maybe I'm being dumb but the way I read the rule is that there aren't two automatic non-BCS teams, not a rule that forbids two from receiving bids (though this is all quibbling, since the odds of two being taken even if they can be is low, as Wander said).

The year two non-BCS conference teams got in, it was because the 2nd one qualified as an at large team (Boise St. @ BCS #6 ranking).

At-large picks have to come from the top 14. This year the only non-BCS team that has a chance to be in the top 14 is Fresno, but they only need to get to #16 if UCF/Louisville are ranked behind them as AAC champ. That's how NIU got in last year.

So there are 6 of the 10 slots booked for BCS conf champs.
If FSU is not in the BCS champ game, that probably means Alabama and Oregon are. The replacement picks for them in the Sugar and Rose are almost certainly going to come from the SEC and the PAC12(Stanford). We are now at 8 slots filled. If Fresno or NIU can stay undefeated, they likely pick up the 9th spot, leaving only one true at-large spot. Orange Bowl will not want Fresno or NIU and probably not UCF or Louisville. They are not going to pick Clemson for a rematch with FSU after the spanking they got handed in October. So they will end up picking between the 2nd B12 team (Baylor/OK/OKST) or possibly the loser of the B10 title game. Then the Fiesta and Sugar get stuck with Fresno and UCF.
To get a BCS slot Clemson needs, Alabama or Oregon to lose, Fresno/NIU to both lose, or for Stanford to lose a 3rd game to USC/Cal/ND.

[Reilly]

... The replacement picks for them in the Sugar and Rose are almost certainly going to come from the SEC and the PAC12(Stanford). ...

So Missouri, Auburn, South Carolina and LSU are the currently-top-14-BCS SEC teams that would get the Sugar nod over Clemson, even though Clemson is ranked higher than all of them in the BCS standings. To me, this year, Clemson seems to have more cachet than those SEC schools (and the BCS standings show it) and you gotta figure Clemson fans would show up to the Sugar Bowl in large numbers. And those SEC schools may suffer losses here at the end while Clemson may win out -- maybe CU/SoCar will weigh big?

I have a friend who is an annoying Clemson fan and considers them the equal of the very elite in college football year after year (even though Clemson has all of 1 BCS bowl appearnce in 15 years) -- so I wouldn't mind seeing them snubbed ... though it seems this year they actually might be worthy.

[Reilly]

... elitist dipwads who aren't even that elite...

So Ole Miss is UVa ...

[Wander]

The rules specifically state that no more than one non-BCS team can qualify for an at large bid:

http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

There are a couple of bizarre contingencies that would allow two non-BCS teams (for instance, if non-BCS teams finish 1-2 in the BCS standings), but nothing that would happen in the real world.

The rules state exactly the opposite of what you're claiming they state. As I mentioned, this isn't just hypothetical - we've already had a season when two non-BCS teams made BCS bowls. Again, I agree it's unlikely to happen this year.

[loran16]

The year two non-BCS conference teams got in, it was because the 2nd one qualified as an at large team (Boise St. @ BCS #6 ranking).

At-large picks have to come from the top 14. This year the only non-BCS team that has a chance to be in the top 14 is Fresno, but they only need to get to #16 if UCF/Louisville are ranked behind them as AAC champ. That's how NIU got in last year.

So there are 6 of the 10 slots booked for BCS conf champs.
If FSU is not in the BCS champ game, that probably means Alabama and Oregon are. The replacement picks for them in the Sugar and Rose are almost certainly going to come from the SEC and the PAC12(Stanford). We are now at 8 slots filled. If Fresno or NIU can stay undefeated, they likely pick up the 9th spot, leaving only one true at-large spot. Orange Bowl will not want Fresno or NIU and probably not UCF or Louisville. They are not going to pick Clemson for a rematch with FSU after the spanking they got handed in October. So they will end up picking between the 2nd B12 team (Baylor/OK/OKST) or possibly the loser of the B10 title game. Then the Fiesta and Sugar get stuck with Fresno and UCF.
To get a BCS slot Clemson needs, Alabama or Oregon to lose, Fresno/NIU to both lose, or for Stanford to lose a 3rd game to USC/Cal/ND.

This is basically correct. The problem is, that if nothing changes, you have the following:
Bama v Oregon - National Title game
Orange Bowl: FSU v X
Rose Bowl: X v OSU
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor v X
Sugar Bowl: X v X

Guaranteed BCS Bids: UCF, Fresno State.

Now Rose is going to pick Stanford and Sugar will pick an SEC team. So suddenly you have one at large spot available....and due to the likely selections, the bowl that is almost certain to choose that last at-large is the ORANGE bowl...who won't take a second ACC team.

That's the issue.

[duke09hms]

This is basically correct. The problem is, that if nothing changes, you have the following:
Bama v Oregon - National Title game
Orange Bowl: FSU v X
Rose Bowl: X v OSU
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor v X
Sugar Bowl: X v X

Guaranteed BCS Bids: UCF, Fresno State.

Now Rose is going to pick Stanford and Sugar will pick an SEC team. So suddenly you have one at large spot available....and due to the likely selections, the bowl that is almost certain to choose that last at-large is the ORANGE bowl...who won't take a second ACC team.

That's the issue.

Why is the Orange bowl "almost certain" to choose the last at-large?

[BigWayne]

So Missouri, Auburn, South Carolina and LSU are the currently-top-14-BCS SEC teams that would get the Sugar nod over Clemson, even though Clemson is ranked higher than all of them in the BCS standings. To me, this year, Clemson seems to have more cachet than those SEC schools (and the BCS standings show it) and you gotta figure Clemson fans would show up to the Sugar Bowl in large numbers. And those SEC schools may suffer losses here at the end while Clemson may win out -- maybe CU/SoCar will weigh big?

I have a friend who is an annoying Clemson fan and considers them the equal of the very elite in college football year after year (even though Clemson has all of 1 BCS bowl appearnce in 15 years) -- so I wouldn't mind seeing them snubbed ... though it seems this year they actually might be worthy.

I don't disagree on the merits, but the Sugar Bowl has a tradition of going with the SEC. It's more than just them having the SEC team, it also blocks others. If they pick Clemson, then the Orange Bowl gets to pick an SEC team to play FSU.

[BigWayne]

Why is the Orange bowl "almost certain" to choose the last at-large?

Because they pick first of the last three picks. If Fresno and UCF have bids, the the last two picks are forced to be Fresno/UCF.

[loran16]

Why is the Orange bowl "almost certain" to choose the last at-large?

Heh, I had this slightly reversed with the right outcome.

After Rose and Sugar get first pick of the replacements for the National Title teams, The Orange bowl picks FIRST. At that point, you have the following:

Rose: Stanford v OSU
Sugar: SEC v XXX
Orange: FSU v XXX
Fiesta: B12 v XXX

Orange now has the choice of an at-large - not going to be an acc team vs FSU - or UCF/Fresno. Odds are it picks a big name school as it's a bigger draw. That leaves Fiesta and Sugar with no choice but to pick UCF/Fresno.

[jimsumner]

OK, nice save there. Makes more sense.

This still amazes me. Who the heck gets Michigan/Michigan State or UNC/NC State confused with each other? I mean, I get that Mississippi ain't exactly the most famous place in the world, but one school is all about engineering and maroon. The other is all about Faulkner and confederate bears or something.

Ole Miss actually sells T-shirts that say "the Harvard of the South." MSU sells T-shirts that say "the People's University."

The MSU take on OM is that they're composed of elitist dipwads who aren't even that elite, and are much more racist.

The OM take on MSU is similar to the garbage you hear Duke and Carolina people say about NC State. Something about guys humping tractors and bovines. Really condescending junk.

MSU played, and I think beat, Wake Forest in this bowl in 2011.

I still don't understand how anyone mixes up OM and MSU with each other. I've never lived in Oregon, and I can tell Oregon and Oregon State apart.

Back in the day, NC State played in a bowl game. Can't recall which game specifically but I believe it was out west. Might have been the 1989 Copper Bowl. You remember that one.

In any event, Chris Schenkel kept referring to NC State as North Carolina. Not once but a bunch of times. And he was getting paid to do this.

The folks in Raleigh were none too happy.