If his pecking order is true and two ACC teams go to the BCS, that would put Duke in Orlando for the Russell Athletic Bowl, which is where I have us going right now. If we win the ACC Coastal (but lose to FSU), we will probably go to Atlanta against a good SEC team (I currently say Mizzou) if 2 ACC teams are in the BCS or, if only one is in the BCS, we would likely go to Orlando against the #2 team from the American (I have Louisville).
Currently, I say that we would play against:
Orange: Likely someone like Fresno St. or UCF
Chick-fil-A: Missouri- would be the perfect opportunity to prove ourselves
Russell Athletic: Louisville- future ACC matchup
Sun: Oregon St.
Belk: Houston
Music City: Georgia (many also have Ole Miss here)
V100 (Shreveport): Vanderbilt- this would be a fun matchup, but in a lower bowl
Military: Tulane (though we will not drop this far unless we are 6-6)
A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
---Roger Ebert
Some questions cannot be answered
Who’s gonna bury who
We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
---Over the Rhine
Orange Bowl gets to pick first for the last three slots. They will not pick Fresno. They might pick UCF for a local draw if they get stuck with Duke. If they get Miami or Clemson, they will most likely pick a B10 or B12 team. Orange Bowl picking priority means that chances of two ACC BCS teams without FSU being in the championship game are very low if Fresno or Northern Illinois get a BCS slot. To free up that at-large spot, both of them have to lose a game in the next few weeks.
Get real ... the Orange Bowl got stuck with Northern Illinois last year because they had the last at large pick and they had to take the non-BCS qualifier.
This year, they get the FIRST at large pick. No way they pick Fresno, Northern Illinois or UCF -- whichever one qualifies (which is not a given).
The first at large team is likely to be Louisville or maybe Stanford. It will be Ohio State if the Buckeyes lose the Big 10 title game ... or it will be Alabama or Oregon if they lose the conference title games. Texas A&M would be attractive if they win out.
But you can bet it will be a big-name BCS team.
Just to be clear -- no more than ONE non-BCS team can qualify -- so it will be Fresno or Northern Illinois (whichever is ranked higher). Not both.
There are 10 BCS berths ... six go to automatic qualifiers (the Big East still gets one). One will probably go to Fresno or NIU. Notre Dame gets one if they finish in the top eight of the BCS (they might if they upset Stanford to end the season). That leaves two at large spots (probably three because Notre Dame is a long-shot). If the Big Four -- Alabama, Oregon, FSU and Ohio State -- win their conference title games it will be interesting for the 2-3 BCS at large teams.
I think Clemson is a lock, IF the Tigers win out to finish 11-1 ... but not in the Orange Bowl -- unless FSU gets the title game, then the Orange would very likely take Clemson.
The rules specifically state that no more than one non-BCS team can qualify for an at large bid:
http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597
There are a couple of bizarre contingencies that would allow two non-BCS teams (for instance, if non-BCS teams finish 1-2 in the BCS standings), but nothing that would happen in the real world.
I understand that UCF is in the AAC (which still holds the Big East automatic bid). That's why I said that Fresno and Northern Illinois were vying for the at large bid.
UCF is fighting with Houston and Louisville for the AAC's automatic bid ... they COULD earn an at large bid, along with Fresno/NIU, but again, in the real world, they won't -- only if they win their conference automatic bid.
The 2-3 open at large bids will go to Clemson or a top SEC, Pac 12, Big Ten or maybe Big 12 team.
Note: Also no more than two BCS bids per conference
OK, nice save there. Makes more sense.
This still amazes me. Who the heck gets Michigan/Michigan State or UNC/NC State confused with each other? I mean, I get that Mississippi ain't exactly the most famous place in the world, but one school is all about engineering and maroon. The other is all about Faulkner and confederate bears or something.
Ole Miss actually sells T-shirts that say "the Harvard of the South." MSU sells T-shirts that say "the People's University."
The MSU take on OM is that they're composed of elitist dipwads who aren't even that elite, and are much more racist.
The OM take on MSU is similar to the garbage you hear Duke and Carolina people say about NC State. Something about guys humping tractors and bovines. Really condescending junk.
MSU played, and I think beat, Wake Forest in this bowl in 2011.
I still don't understand how anyone mixes up OM and MSU with each other. I've never lived in Oregon, and I can tell Oregon and Oregon State apart.
A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
---Roger Ebert
Some questions cannot be answered
Who’s gonna bury who
We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
---Over the Rhine
The year two non-BCS conference teams got in, it was because the 2nd one qualified as an at large team (Boise St. @ BCS #6 ranking).
At-large picks have to come from the top 14. This year the only non-BCS team that has a chance to be in the top 14 is Fresno, but they only need to get to #16 if UCF/Louisville are ranked behind them as AAC champ. That's how NIU got in last year.
So there are 6 of the 10 slots booked for BCS conf champs.
If FSU is not in the BCS champ game, that probably means Alabama and Oregon are. The replacement picks for them in the Sugar and Rose are almost certainly going to come from the SEC and the PAC12(Stanford). We are now at 8 slots filled. If Fresno or NIU can stay undefeated, they likely pick up the 9th spot, leaving only one true at-large spot. Orange Bowl will not want Fresno or NIU and probably not UCF or Louisville. They are not going to pick Clemson for a rematch with FSU after the spanking they got handed in October. So they will end up picking between the 2nd B12 team (Baylor/OK/OKST) or possibly the loser of the B10 title game. Then the Fiesta and Sugar get stuck with Fresno and UCF.
To get a BCS slot Clemson needs, Alabama or Oregon to lose, Fresno/NIU to both lose, or for Stanford to lose a 3rd game to USC/Cal/ND.
So Missouri, Auburn, South Carolina and LSU are the currently-top-14-BCS SEC teams that would get the Sugar nod over Clemson, even though Clemson is ranked higher than all of them in the BCS standings. To me, this year, Clemson seems to have more cachet than those SEC schools (and the BCS standings show it) and you gotta figure Clemson fans would show up to the Sugar Bowl in large numbers. And those SEC schools may suffer losses here at the end while Clemson may win out -- maybe CU/SoCar will weigh big?
I have a friend who is an annoying Clemson fan and considers them the equal of the very elite in college football year after year (even though Clemson has all of 1 BCS bowl appearnce in 15 years) -- so I wouldn't mind seeing them snubbed ... though it seems this year they actually might be worthy.
Last edited by Reilly; 11-06-2013 at 07:13 AM.
The rules state exactly the opposite of what you're claiming they state. As I mentioned, this isn't just hypothetical - we've already had a season when two non-BCS teams made BCS bowls. Again, I agree it's unlikely to happen this year.
This is basically correct. The problem is, that if nothing changes, you have the following:
Bama v Oregon - National Title game
Orange Bowl: FSU v X
Rose Bowl: X v OSU
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor v X
Sugar Bowl: X v X
Guaranteed BCS Bids: UCF, Fresno State.
Now Rose is going to pick Stanford and Sugar will pick an SEC team. So suddenly you have one at large spot available....and due to the likely selections, the bowl that is almost certain to choose that last at-large is the ORANGE bowl...who won't take a second ACC team.
That's the issue.
<devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink
Carolina Delenda Est
Heh, I had this slightly reversed with the right outcome.
After Rose and Sugar get first pick of the replacements for the National Title teams, The Orange bowl picks FIRST. At that point, you have the following:
Rose: Stanford v OSU
Sugar: SEC v XXX
Orange: FSU v XXX
Fiesta: B12 v XXX
Orange now has the choice of an at-large - not going to be an acc team vs FSU - or UCF/Fresno. Odds are it picks a big name school as it's a bigger draw. That leaves Fiesta and Sugar with no choice but to pick UCF/Fresno.
<devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink
Carolina Delenda Est
Back in the day, NC State played in a bowl game. Can't recall which game specifically but I believe it was out west. Might have been the 1989 Copper Bowl. You remember that one.
In any event, Chris Schenkel kept referring to NC State as North Carolina. Not once but a bunch of times. And he was getting paid to do this.
The folks in Raleigh were none too happy.