This Week in the ACC - 12/2-12/8

[pfrduke]

13 preseason tournaments for the ACC gave us 5 champions (Maryland, UNC, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia) and 2 runners-up (Clemson, Duke) - more than half of the ACC's participants won or played for their tourney title. That's a drastic improvement on the last couple of years and a sign that maybe, just maybe, the outlook for the ACC is looking up. Those wins also helped the conference get up above .500 against BCS opponents (just barely) with more room to improve upon that mark this week.

The last big out of conference test at a conference level tips off this week with the 15th ACC/B1G Ten challenge. The matchups are relatively even, although each conference has the benefit of 1-2 (what should be) lobsided matchups. Having Wake and Virginia Tech sit this one out is not a terrible result for the conference, although there are at least 4 teams I'd rather have sitting out than Clemson. Pomeroy predicts 7-5 Big Ten (with the ACC's wins coming from Duke, NC State, Pitt, Syracuse, and Virginia), but there are definitely other wins out there for the taking. I'd say at least 8 of the games realistically could go either way.

Also of note, conference play starts Sunday! Due to the expansion to 15 teams, there are a handful of December games in the ACC, the first of which happens in Miami on December 8. What better way to tip off the ACC season than to have the two worst teams in the conference play each other.

Monday is dark.

Tuesday has most of the ACC's top talent in action and at home, with the Panthers, Orange, and Blue Devils all playing host and (in my view) all needing to win for the ACC to have a shot at taking this year's challenge. The Irish and Seminoles are all road underdogs, although given the way both teams have played year to date, I think FSU could absolutely steal its game from Minnesota. Georgia Tech has the misfortune of being a home underdog to Illinois after looking pretty poor in Brooklyn against Mississippi and St. John's. Every one of these games could be an ACC win; hopefully the ACC will be up at least 4-2 by the end of the day. Also on Tuesday the Hokies play Winthrop and Clemson takes on one of the worst teams in college basketball.

[110]Virginia Tech hosts [164]Winthrop
[27]Clemson hosts [348]South Carolina State
[13]Syracuse hosts [30]Indiana
[109]Georgia Tech hosts [46]Illinois
[3]Pittsburgh hosts [73]Penn State
[28]Duke hosts [19]Michigan
[65]Notre Dame at [10]Iowa
[35]Florida State at [43]Minnesota

Wednesday should favor the Big Ten more - 4 of their 6 teams are at home including what look to be the conference's two powerhouses - MSU and OSU - against lesser ACC competition - UNC and Maryland, respectively. A win in either of those games would be a huge upset for the ACC. BC and Miami also hit the road, but against lesser Big Ten opponents. These are relatively even matchups (per Pomeroy, the ACC team is the better team on a neutral court but the underdog because of the games' locations) and again games where the ACC could steal wins. The ACC's two home games should break in the conference's favor, although Wisconsin is always a tough test and even as bad as Northwestern has looked to date, one never feels comfortable relying on NC State. Note that the three Wednesday late games are all at Big Ten arenas, meaning that if it's not at least 6-3 ACC by roughly 9:00 on Wednesday, someone will need to pick up a road win for the conference to have a chance. Not wanting to be left out of the midweek basketball fun, Wake hosts Tulane as well.

[42]Maryland at [2]Ohio State
[14]Virginia hosts [17]Wisconsin
[90]Wake Forest hosts [306]Tulane
[84]NC State hosts [120]Northwestern
[20]North Carolina at [4]Michigan State
[85]Boston College at [114]Purdue
[108]Miami at [118]Nebraska

Thursday is dark.

Friday has just one ACC team in action with Pitt hosting Loyola Marymount. The Lions are 5-2 and both of their losses are by single digits, but they haven't played anyone tougher than Vanderbilt yet and traveling to Pittsburgh presents a much tougher challenge.

[3]Pittsburgh hosts [185]Loyola Marymount

Saturday has a lot of activity but only two real games of note - in the first, Clemson gets a bit of a road test traveling to Arkansas. The Tigers are the better team but road games against major conference opponents are never easy. In the second, Wake hosts Richmond, a team that may be better on a neutral court but that Wake hopefully can knock off playing at Joel. The other games should be comfortable ACC wins, although Virginia could be in for a test when it travels to Wisconsin to take on UW-GB (I'd like to think the team will make a weekend out of it and catch Sunday's Falcons-Packers game while they're in town, but I suspect that's not likely to be the case)

[109]Georgia Tech hosts [239]East Tennessee State
[27]Clemson at [59]Arkansas
[84]NC State hosts [218]Long Beach State
[90]Wake Forest hosts [70]Richmond
[65]Notre Dame hosts [82]Delaware
[14]Virginia at [89]Green Bay
[13]Syracuse hosts [344]Binghamton
[20]North Carolina hosts [278]UNC-Greensboro

Sunday brings us conference play, although as mentioned above it's not much of a game to write home about. Still, either Virginia Tech or Miami will get to be in first place in the ACC for about a month (no one plays a second ACC game until January 6). In other action, Maryland has a tough matchup with a GW squad that knocked off Creighton over the weekend while BC hits the road to Southern California to take on USC. Like their other road game this week, the Eagles project to be the better team but are the underdog because of location.

[108]Miami hosts [110]Virginia Tech
[42]Maryland vs. [64]George Washington in Washington, D.C.
[35]Florida State hosts [299]Jacksonville State
[85]Boston College at [142]USC

ACC Non-Conference Record: 80-28
ACC Record vs. BCS: 17-16
America East: 1-0
American Athletic: 4-4
Atlantic Sun: 5-1
Atlantic Ten: 4-5
Big 12: 3-2
Big East: 1-3
Big South: 9-0
Big Ten: 1-2
Big West: 1-0
Colonial: 2-0
CUSA: 3-1
Horizon: 1-0
Ivy: 2-0
MAAC: 1-0
MAC: 1-1
MEAC: 7-1
Missouri Valley: 2-1
Mountain West: 1-0
Northeast: 2-1
Ohio Valley: 2-1
Pac-12: 5-2
Patriot: 6-0
SEC: 3-3
Southern: 9-0
Southland: 1-0
SWAC: 2-0
West Coast: 1-0

[pfrduke]

Halfway through the first set of games, Syracuse is playing as expected, Georgia Tech is a little above expectations with a halftime lead over Illinois, and Pitt has some work to do against the Nittany Lions. I don't think the conference wins the challenge if Pitt or Syracuse lose their games, so the Panthers need to get their act together in a hurry.

[pfrduke]

Ramblin Wreck! What a comeback against Illinois and the ACC goes up 2-0 (Penn State continues to be pesky in Pittsburgh, but the Panthers have a 4-point cushion with about 4 to play).

[Duvall]

Hope Bilas enjoyed FSU-Minnesota. It's been pretty much everything he ever wanted.

[tbyers11]

Hope Bilas enjoyed FSU-Minnesota. It's been pretty much everything he ever wanted.

Are they paying the players?

[Duvall]

Are they paying the players?

Only in free shoes and plagiarized papers.

[Olympic Fan]

4-2 after the first night of the challenge ...

that keeps the ACC alive, but despite the 4-2 lead, we are not in a dominant position to win 3 of 6 games Wednesday. Not with four games on Big Ten courts. I'd say two hopeless games (UNC at Michigan State and Maryland at Ohio State) and just one strong ACC matchup -- Northwestern at NC State.

It's going to be close ... I'm thinking either a 6-6 tie or a 7-5 Big Ten win.

[timmy c]

4-2 after the first night of the challenge ...

that keeps the ACC alive, but despite the 4-2 lead, we are not in a dominant position to win 3 of 6 games Wednesday. Not with four games on Big Ten courts. I'd say two hopeless games (UNC at Michigan State and Maryland at Ohio State) and just one strong ACC matchup -- Northwestern at NC State.

It's going to be close ... I'm thinking either a 6-6 tie or a 7-5 Big Ten win.

Kenpom agrees that a tie is the most likely outcome. kenpom.com/blog/

[pfrduke]

4-2 after the first night of the challenge ...

that keeps the ACC alive, but despite the 4-2 lead, we are not in a dominant position to win 3 of 6 games Wednesday. Not with four games on Big Ten courts. I'd say two hopeless games (UNC at Michigan State and Maryland at Ohio State) and just one strong ACC matchup -- Northwestern at NC State.

It's going to be close ... I'm thinking either a 6-6 tie or a 7-5 Big Ten win.

In order of most likely to least likely wins (from the favorite's perspective), I think it's:

OSU over Maryland
MSU over UNC
NC State over Northwestern
Nebraska over Miami
Virginia over Wisconsin
Purdue over Boston College

Getting three wins out of that batch will be tricky, but not impossible. Could come down to BC finally breaking through against a somewhat tough opponent - they have 2-point losses to Providence and UConn, but no win against a team better than Washington (which likely sounds better than it is - the Huskies are terrible this season) - and even that depends on Virginia holding court at home against Wisconsin (a top 10 team in the polls and a top 20 team in the computers).

[pfrduke]

In order of most likely to least likely wins (from the favorite's perspective), I think it's:

OSU over Maryland
MSU over UNC
NC State over Northwestern
Nebraska over Miami
Virginia over Wisconsin
Purdue over Boston College

Getting three wins out of that batch will be tricky, but not impossible. Could come down to BC finally breaking through against a somewhat tough opponent - they have 2-point losses to Providence and UConn, but no win against a team better than Washington (which likely sounds better than it is - the Huskies are terrible this season) - and even that depends on Virginia holding court at home against Wisconsin (a top 10 team in the polls and a top 20 team in the computers).

So barring a miracle in Charlottesville, we need 1 road win to tie, 2 to win. Miami and BC need to step up. NC State, thankfully, is taking care of business against Northwestern.

[Olympic Fan]

Well, we got the tie ... but in the most disappointing way possible (with UNC-cheat winning).

[DukieInBrasil]

Wake gets a big win vs Richmond, in OT. The win itself is nice, Richmond has been a Tourney team quite a bit lately. But Wake was down 12 with 8 minutes left. I think this win really shows that Wake has the guys to play with some toughness and verve, something distinctly lacking since Bzdelik has been there. They've improved each year, but still, they've not been all that good. That may be changing, they're 9-1 so far.

[DukieInBrasil]

Clemson lost a tough one on the road at Arkansas, but only by 6. There were a couple of times in the second half when Arkansas looked like they were gonna take off withe game. Clemson kept fighting, with their rally being too little too late. Road loss to an SEC team is still not bad, and Clemson is 7-2 now.

[sagegrouse]

Uttered by Casey Stengel as the manager of the hopeless NY Mets.

Well, the ACC is hardly looking like a stellar conference. We had one pure win, FSU drubbing Jacksonville State, 77-53. Virginia Tech managed a win in OT on the road, but against Miami, another conference team. Maryland lost at the Verizon Center to George Washington, 77-75, after trailing by 12 at the half. Finally, BC threw up a hairball against USC, losing 62-78 on the road.

2-3 for the day, and 0-2 against teams from major conferences (omitting the inaugural conference game).

sage