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  1. #1
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    The 2013 Bowl Selection Vigil

    The boys still have business to take care of, and it's way too early to project how the middle of the ACC pack will shake out over the next several weeks. However, bowl projections are beginning to proliferate, and as the season enters the stretch run, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at where we stand.
    With several middle-of-the-road ACC teams beating up on each other (for example, Wake over the Twerps on Saturday), there look to be a lot of 6-win teams out of the ACC by season's end...perhaps as many as 10. That leaves Duke on the cusp of bowl eligibility, yet still out in the cold in several bowl projections. For example, ESPN's Mark Schlabach, generally a pretty respected voice, has no room for Duke in his latest bowl projections. Jerry Palm at CBS Sports likewise has the Devils on the outside looking in right now (he does, however, find room for the currently 1-5 heels in the Military Bowl vs. Tulsa).
    On the other hand, ESPN's Brad Edwards (same link as Schlabach above) has us slated for the AdvoCare V100 Used-to-be-Independence Bowl vs. Vanderbilt, which would be a fun matchup.
    Heather Dinich, ESPN's ACC beat writer, who probably pays closer attention to the ACC from top to bottom than any of these other prognosticators, has us back in the Belk Bowl (no opponent specified).

    Again, I know it's still pretty early and that a lot of questions will work themselves out; I just think it's interesting to take a look at the current conversation. Plus it's fun to wonder about bowl destinations after all of our years of languishing in the wilderness. Overall, I think there's little danger that a bowl-eligible Duke team would be wholly passed over, but this is a good reminder that there's work yet to be done. This is but one more reason that I like the team and coaching staff's comments about aiming higher than mere bowl eligibility, for a stronger finish to the season than we had last year...we just might need it.

  2. #2

    ACC Expansion vs. ACC Bowl Expansion

    With the ACC adding new members 'Cuse and Pitt, did the ACC pick up any more bowl slots? If not, seems like expansion from a "making bowls" perspective is certainly a negative for the ACC and more specifically Duke who may be one of the teams typically "on the border." I had thought the ACC picked up a new bowl a couple years ago - the Military Bowl if I'm recalling correctly. Certainly, this predicament is a good reason Duke fans should be cheering for FSU to make the national championship game - to possibly open up another bowl slot for Duke. Hopefully, we get to (at least) 7 wins to make it a moot point!

  3. #3
    Personally I think the Belk Bowl is a pretty ideal one for us to hope for. It is not so far away that our small fanbase would have a lot of difficulty getting to it, the matchup against the AAC is one that we could be competitive in, and it's typically the week after Christmas when many people have availability to travel. I worry about us going to a bowl in Louisiana and trying to fill the stands to any noticeable capacity.
    "There can BE only one."

  4. #4
    State and Wake, from what I have seen, are both games that I think Duke should be favored in. That would get us to 7 wins; however, we could lose to both of those teams as well. For the sake of argument, let's say we split with State and Wake, a fairly modest expectation. This brings us again, to Carolina, for certain bowl eligibility. While I have found their ineptitude on the football field this season to be absolutely hilarious, this is a team with a whole lot of talent. Miami is no slouch and even though those Thursday Night ACC match-ups are always trap games, UNC could have beaten them.

    Carolina would love nothing more than to get the Bell back as well as squelch Duke's chances for a sure fire bowl invite. I'd rather beat Wake and State and have it locked up before heading to Kenan Stadium.

  5. #5
    Beat them all. Split Vtech and Miami. Get 9 wins for the first time in Duke football history (or at least since 1960... cause thats as far back as I could find...
    Source: http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/teams/duke.shtml

    Wishful thinking I'm sure, but I think 8 wins isn't that much a pipedream... we're rated better than State, Wake and Carolina in the latest ESPN ACC power rankings for whatever that is worth.

  6. #6
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    Per Wikipedia, so take it for what it may be worth -- the bowl selection order for the ACC this year:

    Atlantic Coast Conference 2013:

    #1 Bowl Championship Series. Automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, preferentially the Discover Orange Bowl.
    #2 The Chick-fil-A Bowl versus SEC #5.
    #3 The Russell Athletic Bowl versus AAC #1.
    #4 The Hyundai Sun Bowl versus Pac-12 #4.
    #5 The Belk Bowl versus AAC #2.
    #6 The Music City Bowl versus SEC #7.
    #7 The AdvoCare V100 Bowl versus SEC #10.
    #8 The Military Bowl versus Conference USA #5.
    #9 The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl versus Pac-12 #9 (BYU has an agreement in place to be first selection for Fight Hunger bowl; ACC fills slot only if BYU is not bowl eligible). Edit to add: I think BYU is 5-2 currently.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skitzle View Post
    Beat them all. Split Vtech and Miami. Get 9 wins for the first time in Duke football history (or at least since 1960... cause thats as far back as I could find...
    Source: http://mcubed.net/ncaaf/teams/duke.shtml

    Wishful thinking I'm sure, but I think 8 wins isn't that much a pipedream... we're rated better than State, Wake and Carolina in the latest ESPN ACC power rankings for whatever that is worth.
    FYI, a little history lesson... Regarding number of victories in a season, the 1938 team went undefeated, unscored on and untied in the regular season. Their only loss was in the Rose Bowl. Their nickname, Iron Dukes, is now heavily associated with various aspects of Duke athletics.

    When I look up Duke stats both past and present, I use goduke.com.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    With the ACC adding new members 'Cuse and Pitt, did the ACC pick up any more bowl slots? If not, seems like expansion from a "making bowls" perspective is certainly a negative for the ACC and more specifically Duke who may be one of the teams typically "on the border." I had thought the ACC picked up a new bowl a couple years ago - the Military Bowl if I'm recalling correctly. Certainly, this predicament is a good reason Duke fans should be cheering for FSU to make the national championship game - to possibly open up another bowl slot for Duke. Hopefully, we get to (at least) 7 wins to make it a moot point!
    The ACC did not, as the AAC kept all of their bowl slots but the BCS bowl. The ACC has 8 bowl tie ins. They are:

    Orange (ACC1)
    Chick-fil-A (ACC2)
    Russell Athletic (ACC3)
    Sun (ACC4)*
    Belk (ACC5)
    Music City (ACC6)
    Independence (ACC7)
    Military (ACC8)

    *In the event the loser of the ACC Title game is not yet picked by this point, the Sun is contractually obligated to take them.
    ** In theory, a 9th ACC team would be in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl if BYU was ineligible for Bowl consideration. BYU is 5-2. Don't think it's happening.

    In addition, it is possible for a second ACC team to get to a BCS Bowl, though some projections I've seen suggest that unlikely this year due to picking order of bowls, assuming FSU isn't in the title game.

    The Belk bowl meanwhile has been reported to not want the same team a second time.

    NOTE: A 7-5 team is NOT guaranteed a bowl slot over a 6-6 team. Bowls cannot select a team two wins worse than another available team (so an 8-4 team can't be gipped for a 6-6 team) but a 7-5 team can be skipped for a 6-6 team. So 7-5 doesn't make it SAFE for Duke.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    NOTE: A 7-5 team is NOT guaranteed a bowl slot over a 6-6 team. Bowls cannot select a team two wins worse than another available team (so an 8-4 team can't be gipped for a 6-6 team) but a 7-5 team can be skipped for a 6-6 team. So 7-5 doesn't make it SAFE for Duke.
    Good points here and throughout the thread.
    Bear in mind that if there's a logjam at 6 or 7 wins, Maryland is likely to be one of the teams clogging the works. Call me crazy, but I'd think the folks in the league office (who do play a fairly important role in bowl placement conversations) would much rather have Duke earn a second straight bowl bid than find a spot for the departing Twerps.
    Again, I really don't think it's going to come down to any of this, as these would-be doomsday scenarios almost never come to pass. It's just liable to be a very interesting conversation in the coming weeks.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Highlander View Post
    Personally I think the Belk Bowl is a pretty ideal one for us to hope for. It is not so far away that our small fanbase would have a lot of difficulty getting to it, the matchup against the AAC is one that we could be competitive in, and it's typically the week after Christmas when many people have availability to travel. I worry about us going to a bowl in Louisiana and trying to fill the stands to any noticeable capacity.
    This is a good thought, but remember, the bowls are at least as much about television as they are about ticket sales. The Belk people were smart to place that bowl in Charlotte, because they have their TV contract and a near-annual in on a strong showing from Duke/Wake/State/unc (and even to a lesser extent, Clemson and GA Tech, both within about a 3-hour drive of the game). However, this is the exception to the rule when it comes to lesser bowl games. I don't really think, say, State or carolina would be demonstrably more likely than Duke to travel en masse to Shreveport. The same goes for El Paso...my understanding is that Sun Bowl officials have long since resigned themselves to light crowds and they make their money from ESPN. I've seen more than one very paltry crowd sitting in a snowy West Texas stadium watching Tech play whomever on New Year's Eve afternoon.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    This is a good thought, but remember, the bowls are at least as much about television as they are about ticket sales. The Belk people were smart to place that bowl in Charlotte, because they have their TV contract and a near-annual in on a strong showing from Duke/Wake/State/unc (and even to a lesser extent, Clemson and GA Tech, both within about a 3-hour drive of the game). However, this is the exception to the rule when it comes to lesser bowl games. I don't really think, say, State or carolina would be demonstrably more likely than Duke to travel en masse to Shreveport. The same goes for El Paso...my understanding is that Sun Bowl officials have long since resigned themselves to light crowds and they make their money from ESPN. I've seen more than one very paltry crowd sitting in a snowy West Texas stadium watching Tech play whomever on New Year's Eve afternoon.
    Remember, Belk took us last year. The Herald Sun beatwriter reported on twitter:

    @stevewisemanNC:
    @thedevilwolf Don't count on it. I've been told Belk not likely to take Duke 2 years in a row.
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Good points here and throughout the thread.
    Bear in mind that if there's a logjam at 6 or 7 wins, Maryland is likely to be one of the teams clogging the works. Call me crazy, but I'd think the folks in the league office (who do play a fairly important role in bowl placement conversations) would much rather have Duke earn a second straight bowl bid than find a spot for the departing Twerps.
    Again, I really don't think it's going to come down to any of this, as these would-be doomsday scenarios almost never come to pass. It's just liable to be a very interesting conversation in the coming weeks.
    This is true, but it's possible for there to be TWO extra teams - that's what the ACC blog on ESPN has.

    I think one or two of the 3-3 teams will collapse to make the situation clearer, but we'll see. Duke can only assure itself a bowl by going 8-4, although 7-5 with a win over Wake or UNC likely removes at least one other bowl contender.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    Remember, Belk took us last year. The Herald Sun beatwriter reported on twitter:

    @stevewisemanNC:

    @thedevilwolf Don't count on it. I've been told Belk not likely to take Duke 2 years in a row.
    Right, I remember. I was in the stadium that night (the coldest live sporting event I've ever attended). My point was less about the Belk Bowl though, and more about the AdvoCareWhatevertheHeck and Sun Bowls. Those bowls, in Shreveport and El Paso respectively, are in my opinion unlikely to choose any ACC team based on an expectation of strong in-person attendance. The bowls aren't prominent enough and the destinations aren't exciting enough to reasonably expect Tobacco Road fans to travel ~1000 miles to Shreveport or ~1800(!!) miles to El Paso. Duke's perceived lack of traveling strength would, in my opinion, be a minor consideration with regard to either of those possible bowls.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    Right, I remember. I was in the stadium that night (the coldest live sporting event I've ever attended). My point was less about the Belk Bowl though, and more about the AdvoCareWhatevertheHeck and Sun Bowls. Those bowls, in Shreveport and El Paso respectively, are in my opinion unlikely to choose any ACC team based on an expectation of strong in-person attendance. The bowls aren't prominent enough and the destinations aren't exciting enough to reasonably expect Tobacco Road fans to travel ~1000 miles to Shreveport or ~1800(!!) miles to El Paso. Duke's perceived lack of traveling strength would, in my opinion, be a minor consideration with regard to either of those possible bowls.
    True for Shreveport, not true for Sun. Remember, Sun is ACC 4. If we have only 1 BCS bowl, that means it likely will pick VT or Miami, since both are near guaranteed to be 8-4, and an 8-4 or better team cannot be gipped. (Probably VT, as Russell Athletic would prefer Miami duh).

    It's also possible for there to be more 8-4 teams, though it is unlikely.

    Duke's been projected frequently in the military bowl, which makes sense unless the team is 8-4.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  14. #14
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    Raleigh, NC
    Florida State making it to the title game would free up another bowl bid for the ACC.

    So, go 'Noles.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    The ACC did not, as the AAC kept all of their bowl slots but the BCS bowl. The ACC has 8 bowl tie ins.
    This only applies to the 2013 season, though. Next year the ACC adds a couple of lower bowl games.

    In addition, it is possible for a second ACC team to get to a BCS Bowl, though some projections I've seen suggest that unlikely this year due to picking order of bowls, assuming FSU isn't in the title game.
    Who has said this? This seems unlikely given the BCS rankings.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post



    Who has said this? This seems unlikely given the BCS rankings.
    http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...edictions-2013

    If Fresno State or Northern Illinois go unbeaten from here on out, one of them will be in. Each already ranks very well in the projected BCS standings, and Sunday night we could see one of them (likely Fresno) already within a spot or two of the No. 16 spot. If either can reach that ranking without being passed by an AQ-conference champion, it's in. Otherwise, No. 12 is the goal, which is also within reach.

    Let's say Fresno State does go undefeated, which now looks more likely, with Wyoming struggling and both Boise State and Utah State losing their starting quarterbacks. That plus the American champion (which looks to be UCF) means the Orange gets the last remaining shot to bring in a big-name school with a national following. It can't take from the Pac-12 or SEC, though, since each will already have two BCS teams, and it likely won't take another ACC team.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  17. #17

    extra spot

    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Florida State making it to the title game would free up another bowl bid for the ACC.

    So, go 'Noles.
    It's not just FSU getting to the title game ... if the ACC puts two in the BCS, that opens up a 10th ACC bid. We did that in 2011 -- Clemson in the Orange ... Va Tech in the Sugar. It could easily happen this year -- if Clemson wins out, the Tigers would be a very attractive BCS team although they have little chance of winning the ACC and playing in the Orange Bowl (FSU would have to lose twice).

    But all this concern is needless. The big question is whether Duke gets to six wins. Do that and Duke will be in a bowl -- 100 percent guaranteed. The ACC WILL find spots for all bowl eligible teams.

  18. #18
    Dev11's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    It's not just FSU getting to the title game ... if the ACC puts two in the BCS, that opens up a 10th ACC bid. We did that in 2011 -- Clemson in the Orange ... Va Tech in the Sugar. It could easily happen this year -- if Clemson wins out, the Tigers would be a very attractive BCS team although they have little chance of winning the ACC and playing in the Orange Bowl (FSU would have to lose twice).

    But all this concern is needless. The big question is whether Duke gets to six wins. Do that and Duke will be in a bowl -- 100 percent guaranteed. The ACC WILL find spots for all bowl eligible teams.
    Miami could also be an attractive option for the Orange Bowl, particularly if their one loss happens to a team in the national championship game.

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dev11 View Post
    Miami could also be an attractive option for the Orange Bowl, particularly if their one loss happens to a team in the national championship game.
    Well, in that scenario they would have lost to FSU twice.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Well, in that scenario they would have lost to FSU twice.
    Ah, good point. I wasn't sure how the tiebreaker worked between VT and Miami, should Miami beat VT but have a conference loss to FSU while VT is otherwise clean.

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