Biggest spread ever! Who you got?

[JasonEvans]

So, the Denver - Jacksonville game is being touted as the biggest pointspread in NFL history, 28 points. WOW!

So, who you got? You taking Denver or the Jags? 28 points is a crazy spread for an NFL game, but the Jags suck something awful and Denver has shown a propensity for really piling on the points, even when they lead by a lot.

-Jason "vote early, vote often... and make a call to your local bookie if you feel like it " Evans

[BD80]

I am SHOCKED to find gambling discussed in this establishment!

[Indoor66]

I am SHOCKED to find gambling discussed in this establishment!

Just play it, Sam.

[JBDuke]

I am SHOCKED to find gambling discussed in this establishment!

Just play it, Sam.

No, no, no! The proper response is - "You're winnings, sir."

[sagegrouse]

I'm not sure how much I would truly bet on the Broncos, but I can tell you that they are well represented on my fantasy team!

sagegrouse

[throatybeard]

I was actually driving around in East Saint Louis last weekend on my way to a apple/pumpkin farm up in the Loess hills, when I was telling my wife how, even if I gambled, which I don't, I would put money on JAX against the Rams. We were listening to the 1Q of the Rams.

The Rams actually managed to covered a double digit spread. The Rams. What is that?

The problem here is that Denver is way better, and they might call off the dogs when they get up 28-0. Can Denver cover a 28-pt spread? Yes. Sure. Will they be sitting Manning by the early third quarter? Hell if I know, and none of my money is on it. This is like a Week 17 Colts game a few years ago. Stay away. This has 28-3 as a distinct possibility.

[Wander]

The problem here is that Denver is way better, and they might call off the dogs when they get up 28-0. Can Denver cover a 28-pt spread? Yes. Sure. Will they be sitting Manning by the early third quarter? Hell if I know, and none of my money is one it. This is like a Week 17 Colts game a few years ago. Stay away. This has 28-3 as a distinct possibility.

Agreed. If you were to guarantee me that both teams would play the 1st string the entire game, I'd easily take Denver. But I'd be scared that Denver just uses the 4th quarter as an exhibition game of sorts.

[JasonEvans]

Agreed. If you were to guarantee me that both teams would play the 1st string the entire game, I'd easily take Denver. But I'd be scared that Denver just uses the 4th quarter as an exhibition game of sorts.

So, here's an interesting question -- if you could force Denver to play their first string the entire game and try to score like they were down 4 points in the middle of the 4th quarter (not desperation time, but certainly intense) -- how many points would Denver put up? Anyone think they would not score 50?

-Jason "The Denver D is bad, but I still think this one could be something like 41 - 10" Evans

[InSpades]

So, here's an interesting question -- if you could force Denver to play their first string the entire game and try to score like they were down 4 points in the middle of the 4th quarter (not desperation time, but certainly intense) -- how many points would Denver put up? Anyone think they would not score 50?

-Jason "The Denver D is bad, but I still think this one could be something like 41 - 10" Evans

The question would be how many more they would score in the 4th after they got 50 in the 3rd. Good defenses can't stop Peyton. The Jags offense is the worst in the league... they can't run the ball, they can't pass the ball. All they can do is give the ball back to Peyton so he can shread their defense some more.

I agree with the above though... it's hard to say what will happen when they go up by 3 scores in the 2nd quarter. On one hand... that's probably enough points that they could punt on 1st down for the rest of the game and still win. On the other hand... the Jags defense probably doesn't really pose that much of a threat to Peyton anyway. I'd guess they'll sit him after the outcome is no longer in doubt.

[NashvilleDevil]

We all know that Peyton hates to come out of a game for any reason. I think Peyton will try to throw for 8 TDs breaking the record he tied against the Ravens and the Broncos will score 50+ for the 3rd straight week.

[snowdenscold]

On one hand... that's probably enough points that they could punt on 1st down for the rest of the game and still win.

This got me thinking about some various scenarios (for the whole game, starting at 0-0):

What if the Broncos only got 3 downs per possession?
What if the Broncos weren't allowed to punt, but had to run a play every time it got to 4th down? Would giving up the ball on your own side of the field at times to an anemic offense be offset by the extra drives and touchdowns that would be claimed by all those 4th down attempts?

[JasonEvans]

What if the Broncos weren't allowed to punt, but had to run a play every time it got to 4th down? Would giving up the ball on your own side of the field at times to an anemic offense be offset by the extra drives and touchdowns that would be claimed by all those 4th down attempts?

Come on... what do you think is the over/under on how many times the Broncos punt or kick a 4th down FG in this game, 3?

-Jason "poor MJD... " Evans

[Dev11]

Come on... what do you think is the over/under on how many times the Broncos punt or kick a 4th down FG in this game, 3?

-Jason "poor MJD... " Evans

Under. Nothing is stopping the Broncos offense, and even when they've been coming to the end of a blowout, Peyton stays in the game except to let Osweiler kneel down at the end, because Peyton is too proud to kneel.

Broncos by 35

[mkirsh]

Come on... what do you think is the over/under on how many times the Broncos punt or kick a 4th down FG in this game, 3?

-Jason "poor MJD... " Evans

Plus, given that they convert 3rd downs around 60% and score so many more points per possession than the Jags (3.8 to 0.8) I think they would be much better off without punting.

The speculation of what would happen if the Broncos only had 3 downs is more interesting to me. The Broncos average 12 3rd downs per game, of which about 5 per game turn into punts. I assume some of those occur on the same drive, but if they had to give up say 5 possessions per game, that roughly equates to 19 points per game in points they don't score and 10 additional points they give up to an average team, so that would be a fairly large swing. In reality they would probably manage their offense much differently and likely get the 5 possession number down, but it might make this game a pick'em game.

[hurleyfor3]

Come on... what do you think is the over/under on how many times the Broncos punt or kick a 4th down FG in this game, 3?

The Broncos had zero punts last week against Dallas in winning 51-48.

From the play-by-play on espn, it looks like the Broncos' possessions last week were:

First half: Fumble, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown, Touchdown
Second half: Touchdown, Field goal, Interception, Field goal, Touchdown, Field goal

[JasonEvans]

The speculation of what would happen if the Broncos only had 3 downs is more interesting to me... it might make this game a pick'em game.

No way. Even with only 3 downs, I think the Broncos would be a 7 point pick.

-Jason "The Jags are just that bad" Evans

[dukebluelemur]

No, no, no! The proper response is - "You're winnings, sir."

*Wince*

^"Your"

(Can't let that slide in a correction AND quote...)

It's a big spread, but it surprises me a bit that that is the highest ever, given some of the dynasties of terribleness I recall.

[JasonEvans]

Almost 80% of us would have lost money, some would have lost big money!

-Jason "when it was 21-19 in the 3rd quarter, I thought we were about to really clear the field in the Survivor pool!" Evans

[left_hook_lacey]

I'm taking the Jags in this one. I know Peyton doesn't like to come out in a blow out. But still. I think if they go up 21 or 28 by the 3rd, I think the Broncos will run run run. Especially if Peyton doesn't want to come out. I don't think Fox will risk Peyton dropping back to throw a pass and get blind sided and blow out a knee in a route. Sure, chances of anyone touching Peyton all day are slim to none, but there is a chance. He IS coming off 4 neck surgeries which can be a dicey situation to begin with.

All that said, I think some people are forgetting the fact that the Jags have Justin Blackman back now. Is he gonna turn the Jags season around? No. But he is good, and he gives them an offensive weapon at receiver that has been lacking all year. That, in return, opens the field for MJD who has been stifled all year because, well, he was the Jags entire offense up until now.

On top of all I just said, I just always like taking the underdog when such a high point-spread is set.

We'll see. It's weird, but this will probably be the biggest blowout in this NFL season, but because of the point-spread alone, it will probably be one of the most watched.

[JasonEvans]

I'm taking the Jags in this one. I know Peyton doesn't like to come out in a blow out. But still. I think if they go up 21 or 28 by the 3rd, I think the Broncos will run run run. Especially if Peyton doesn't want to come out. I don't think Fox will risk Peyton dropping back to throw a pass and get blind sided and blow out a knee in a route. Sure, chances of anyone touching Peyton all day are slim to none, but there is a chance. He IS coming off 4 neck surgeries which can be a dicey situation to begin with.

All that said, I think some people are forgetting the fact that the Jags have Justin Blackman back now. Is he gonna turn the Jags season around? No. But he is good, and he gives them an offensive weapon at receiver that has been lacking all year. That, in return, opens the field for MJD who has been stifled all year because, well, he was the Jags entire offense up until now.

On top of all I just said, I just always like taking the underdog when such a high point-spread is set.

We'll see. It's weird, but this will probably be the biggest blowout in this NFL season, but because of the point-spread alone, it will probably be one of the most watched.

Ummm, you are aware that the game already happened a few days ago, right?

Denver 35 - Jax 19. The Jags covered with ease.

-Jason "it was a really close game until Denver pulled away late" Evans