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  1. #81
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    There is an interesting feature that would be a nice add to 247's crystal ball. A "reaffirmation update" or something like that.

    Allow me to explain. Lets take the case of all the Looney picks. Many of them picked Duke back in May, June, or July. When we see a small flurry of guys making Florida picks it makes it appear that Florida has momentum and that the old Duke picks are simply out of date. What we do not know is if the old Duke picks are from guys who have not bothered to make an update (or maybe are not paying as much attention to this particular recruit) or are they from guys who are on top of things but just still happen to feel the way they did back in the Spring/Summer.

    Take airowe (our good buddy, Adam) for example. He made his Looney Duke pick on June 13th. As a Duke-focused blogger, I have no doubt that he has been working his sources extensively today and in recent days. Adam could have gotten numerous indications that Duke was still Looney's most likely destination, but his pick appears to be old and out of date on the 247 site. There is no mechanism for him to indicate that his old pick should carry as much weight and confidence as the new picks, which seem to be indicating Florida. There could be a dozen gurus who made calls and outreach last night who all heard Duke was the pick, but there is no way for the system to show that confidence. All they do is leave their 6 month old pick the way it is.

    Seems like it is a bit of a flaw in the system -- though it is worth noting that this may be my own recency bias playing games with my nerves. The very first thing you see on the Looney prediction page is Duke 88%, Florida 12%. It may not be the 100% we saw a few days ago, but it is still a very healthy pro-Duke sentiment in this recruitment.

    -Jason "I am just loving that we get to use the word Looney a lot in this thread without obviously mocking the game of recruiting predictions" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    ... -Jason "I am just loving that we get to use the word Looney a lot in this thread without obviously mocking the game of recruiting predictions" Evans
    Actually, we should be thinking of the Canadian usage of Looney, their gold $1 coin: Kevon is money!

    Come-on Kev-on!

    Is there a schedule for the announcement?

  3. #83
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Actually, we should be thinking of the Canadian usage of Looney, their gold $1 coin: Kevon is money!

    Come-on Kev-on!

    Is there a schedule for the announcement?
    11am Central.

    As far as I can tell, Kevon shunned ESPNU to go old school and just announce at his high school. I like it.

    - Chillin

  4. #84
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    Does 247 predict if Looney will announce in his Halloween costume? Do they guess what he'll dress as?

    He'd be my favorite player ever if he announced dressed as a Blue Devil.
    Just as long as he doesn't wear a banana costume.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  5. #85
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    Springsteen version?

    -jk
    Or the original version:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmdH5hAhs_8
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  6. #86
    Dev11's Avatar
    Dev11 is offline Commissioner of Statistics, DBR Podcast
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Boston
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    11am Central.

    As far as I can tell, Kevon shunned ESPNU to go old school and just announce at his high school. I like it.

    - Chillin
    I hope he doesn't go to the same high school as Josh Smith, as the press conference tables and mics are still in use.

    No, I will not get tired of this joke.

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Macon, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Dev11 View Post
    I hope he doesn't go to the same high school as Josh Smith, as the press conference tables and mics are still in use.

    No, I will not get tired of this joke.
    Tony Parker?

  8. #88
    Dev11's Avatar
    Dev11 is offline Commissioner of Statistics, DBR Podcast
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Boston
    Quote Originally Posted by Ichabod Drain View Post
    Tony Parker?
    That's what I meant. Shucks.

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Deeetroit City
    Quote Originally Posted by Dev11 View Post
    I hope he doesn't go to the same high school as Josh Smith, as the press conference tables and mics are still in use.

    No, I will not get tired of this joke.
    Josh ate the tables and mics

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Just as long as he doesn't wear a banana costume.
    That made me laugh out loud. Still using the AVATAR from that "Late night with Roy".


    Hey, speaking of which, does any other school, attach the head coaches name to the midnight madness?? I am just curious.

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by dukedoc View Post
    My pet issue is that it isn't (and can't be) blinded. Inevitably people just go with the flow. It's only when multiple bigger names make changes that it likely is something substantive, because those bigger names have to really think for themselves, rather than the less well known types who are just gambling their way into some modicum of credibility for the future by tying themselves at the hip to Borzello or whomever.
    This is right on the money. I am confident that most of the guys on 247, though they may be "insiders" with regards to a particular program or even have some sources with more than one program, have absolutely no sources as to almost all the rest of the programs. So when it comes to trying to "analyze" recruits outside their particular niche, if you will, they have nothing, so their only choice is to follow the crowd. The crowd favorite is probably based, at its root, on some sort of actual information (outdated though it may be) but it's better than just picking a name out of a hat -- which is otherwise all they would be left with. Following the crowd usually is going to allow them the greatest chances of being correct, and if they're not correct, then at least they're in the same boat with most of the rest of the guys, who missed on it too.

  12. #92
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Less than 1.5 hours out now. We're holding steady at 88% Duke.

    Contrast this announcement with Okonoboh - much, much less activity on the 247 CB.

    I agree with most posters that the CB needs tweaking to make it useful, but it's important to see how it operates first in order to see where tweaks are needed - and these two announcements are looking pretty different as far as the CB has gone. "Strange" has been used to describe it, so maybe that's reflected here too?

    - Chillin

  13. #93
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Macon, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Less than 1.5 hours out now. We're holding steady at 88% Duke.

    Contrast this announcement with Okonoboh - much, much less activity on the 247 CB.

    I agree with most posters that the CB needs tweaking to make it useful, but it's important to see how it operates first in order to see where tweaks are needed - and these two announcements are looking pretty different as far as the CB has gone. "Strange" has been used to describe it, so maybe that's reflected here too?

    - Chillin
    I believe the announcement may be postponed now after that tweet...

  14. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I like it, and suggested the same upthread. This Looney recruitment would merit a confidence rating of 1 for many.
    Arghh.. Sorry for thieving your idea!

  15. #95
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    1_929569.png

    Oh crap. Now Jay Hochstetler has picked FL, and we know what that means. This guy is money!


    Jay Hochstetler
    Jay Hochstetler
    Recruiting Writer
    Kentucky Sports Radio
    Correct: 13
    Incorrect: 7
    Percent Correct: 65.00 %
    AVG days Correct: 13.92
    "Just like you man. I got the shotgun, you got the briefcase." Omar Little

  16. #96
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    I guess we're in "overtime".

    The renowned N.D. Kendrick has flopped from Duke to Tennessee. That's the first Tennessee prediction. 34 analysts: 1/6/27 for Tenn/UF/Duke.

    - Chillin

  17. #97
    Most recent Looney prediction (from the National Scouting Director of RecruitRecon.com) is for Tennessee, their first.

  18. #98
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Rent free in tarheels’ heads
    God, this is so pointless. And yet here I am reading and spending time looking for clues. It will be what it will be. I hate the build up and the over-analyzing of this flip and that flop. Experts... please. These guys are more clueless than fantasy sports prognosticators, who themselves are pretty well full of it.

    BTW, if a head coach tweeted that it's "great to be alive" just because he got a big recruit, that is pathetically sad. I'd be more impressed if he knew he was not getting the recruit and took the time to remind himself that it is great to be alive and the other stuff matters not.

  19. #99
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Rosenrosen View Post
    God, this is so pointless. And yet here I am reading and spending time looking for clues. It will be what it will be. I hate the build up and the over-analyzing of this flip and that flop. Experts... please. These guys are more clueless than fantasy sports prognosticators, who themselves are pretty well full of it.

    BTW, if a head coach tweeted that it's "great to be alive" just because he got a big recruit, that is pathetically sad. I'd be more impressed if he knew he was not getting the recruit and took the time to remind himself that it is great to be alive and the other stuff matters not.
    For all we know, he had just gotten the Heimlich from someone at his favorite breakfast place. Kind of silly to try to place context on tweets in general.

  20. #100
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Yikes!

    Chad Lykins, who works with Adam Rowe on Blue Devil Lair, just changed his pick from Duke to Florida.

    When the Duke insiders start picking against Duke, that's a bad sign.

    -Jason "bahhh, we didn't want him anyway, right? Ha!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

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