There is an interesting feature that would be a nice add to 247's crystal ball. A "reaffirmation update" or something like that.
Allow me to explain. Lets take the case of all the Looney picks. Many of them picked Duke back in May, June, or July. When we see a small flurry of guys making Florida picks it makes it appear that Florida has momentum and that the old Duke picks are simply out of date. What we do not know is if the old Duke picks are from guys who have not bothered to make an update (or maybe are not paying as much attention to this particular recruit) or are they from guys who are on top of things but just still happen to feel the way they did back in the Spring/Summer.
Take airowe (our good buddy, Adam) for example. He made his Looney Duke pick on June 13th. As a Duke-focused blogger, I have no doubt that he has been working his sources extensively today and in recent days. Adam could have gotten numerous indications that Duke was still Looney's most likely destination, but his pick appears to be old and out of date on the 247 site. There is no mechanism for him to indicate that his old pick should carry as much weight and confidence as the new picks, which seem to be indicating Florida. There could be a dozen gurus who made calls and outreach last night who all heard Duke was the pick, but there is no way for the system to show that confidence. All they do is leave their 6 month old pick the way it is.
Seems like it is a bit of a flaw in the system -- though it is worth noting that this may be my own recency bias playing games with my nerves. The very first thing you see on the Looney prediction page is Duke 88%, Florida 12%. It may not be the 100% we saw a few days ago, but it is still a very healthy pro-Duke sentiment in this recruitment.
-Jason "I am just loving that we get to use the word Looney a lot in this thread without obviously mocking the game of recruiting predictions" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Or the original version:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmdH5hAhs_8
[redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.
This is right on the money. I am confident that most of the guys on 247, though they may be "insiders" with regards to a particular program or even have some sources with more than one program, have absolutely no sources as to almost all the rest of the programs. So when it comes to trying to "analyze" recruits outside their particular niche, if you will, they have nothing, so their only choice is to follow the crowd. The crowd favorite is probably based, at its root, on some sort of actual information (outdated though it may be) but it's better than just picking a name out of a hat -- which is otherwise all they would be left with. Following the crowd usually is going to allow them the greatest chances of being correct, and if they're not correct, then at least they're in the same boat with most of the rest of the guys, who missed on it too.
Less than 1.5 hours out now. We're holding steady at 88% Duke.
Contrast this announcement with Okonoboh - much, much less activity on the 247 CB.
I agree with most posters that the CB needs tweaking to make it useful, but it's important to see how it operates first in order to see where tweaks are needed - and these two announcements are looking pretty different as far as the CB has gone. "Strange" has been used to describe it, so maybe that's reflected here too?
- Chillin
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Oh crap. Now Jay Hochstetler has picked FL, and we know what that means. This guy is money!
Jay Hochstetler
Jay Hochstetler
Recruiting Writer
Kentucky Sports Radio
Correct: 13
Incorrect: 7
Percent Correct: 65.00 %
AVG days Correct: 13.92
"Just like you man. I got the shotgun, you got the briefcase." Omar Little
I guess we're in "overtime".
The renowned N.D. Kendrick has flopped from Duke to Tennessee. That's the first Tennessee prediction. 34 analysts: 1/6/27 for Tenn/UF/Duke.
- Chillin
Most recent Looney prediction (from the National Scouting Director of RecruitRecon.com) is for Tennessee, their first.
God, this is so pointless. And yet here I am reading and spending time looking for clues. It will be what it will be. I hate the build up and the over-analyzing of this flip and that flop. Experts... please. These guys are more clueless than fantasy sports prognosticators, who themselves are pretty well full of it.
BTW, if a head coach tweeted that it's "great to be alive" just because he got a big recruit, that is pathetically sad. I'd be more impressed if he knew he was not getting the recruit and took the time to remind himself that it is great to be alive and the other stuff matters not.
Yikes!
Chad Lykins, who works with Adam Rowe on Blue Devil Lair, just changed his pick from Duke to Florida.
When the Duke insiders start picking against Duke, that's a bad sign.
-Jason "bahhh, we didn't want him anyway, right? Ha!" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?