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  1. #61
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Hudson Valley, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    Does 247 predict if Looney will announce in his Halloween costume? Do they guess what he'll dress as?

    He'd be my favorite player ever if he announced dressed as a Blue Devil.
    Even more so if it was a devil with a blue dress, blue dress, blue dress, devil with a blue dress on....

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by NYBri View Post
    Even more so if it was a devil with a blue dress, blue dress, blue dress, devil with a blue dress on....
    Springsteen version?

    -jk

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Nov 2012
    Location
    Gates House (House H for you old timers)
    Quote Originally Posted by NYBri View Post
    Even more so if it was a devil with a blue dress, blue dress, blue dress, devil with a blue dress on....
    That would sure be Looney...

    Trinity '16

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by AncientPsychicT View Post
    That would sure be Looney...
    Uh-oh...

    Speaking of Kevon, there have been 3 new predictions this evening... all three for Florida. It ain't 100% Duke anymore.

    -Jason "worth noting that among the new Florida predictors is Jeff Borzello of CBS Sports... a fairly well known recruiting guru" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Uh-oh...

    Speaking of Kevon, there have been 3 new predictions this evening... all three for Florida. It ain't 100% Duke anymore.

    -Jason "worth noting that among the new Florida predictors is Jeff Borzello of CBS Sports... a fairly well known recruiting guru" Evans
    Guess what they meant by "weird recruitment."

    Billy Donovan strikes again?

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    Guess what they meant by "weird recruitment."

    Billy Donovan strikes again?
    considering we heard so much about how Looney had such admiration for Cuonzo Martin at Tennessee and about how his family had connections to that school and the coaching staff there, picking Florida would really be a punch in the gut for those Tennessee folks.

    Wow, would not want to be in Knoxville tonight!

    -Jason "we'll know in about 14 hours" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Bradenton/Chicago

    Decision

    Will Looney's decision be on live TV ?
    The older I get, the better I wuz!

  8. #68
    Jeff Borzello stated that Nate James and Billy Donovan both visited Looney today. Borzello predicted Florida on 247sports. We shall see.

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post

    Billy Donovan strikes again?
    He has been a thorn in our side on the recruiting trail for quite some time. All the way back to David Lee, I think?

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevilBrowns View Post
    He has been a thorn in our side on the recruiting trail for quite some time. All the way back to David Lee, I think?
    He makes offers you can't refuse, I suppose...

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Chicago/LA/Toronto
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevilBrowns View Post
    He has been a thorn in our side on the recruiting trail for quite some time. All the way back to David Lee, I think?
    Even further back to Brett Nelson and Mike Miller, IIRC.

  12. #72
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Unless Looney goes elsewhere, in which case we should probably ignore the Crystal Ball forever.
    Yeah, that would be a real CB stinker.

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Uh-oh...

    Speaking of Kevon, there have been 3 new predictions this evening... all three for Florida. It ain't 100% Duke anymore.

    -Jason "worth noting that among the new Florida predictors is Jeff Borzello of CBS Sports... a fairly well known recruiting guru" Evans
    The two guys not named Borzello could easily be the types trying to "get famous" by picking the dark horse. They are 12-9 and 21-9 in their picks, both worse than, say, Airowe.

    Borzello is a real interesting development at 34-4. As you say, he is a pretty well known voice. I'm certainly not excited to see him spring for Florida.

    As a follow up question, we are now across 34 analysts in total. By my last count we were at 32. So of the three new Florida predictions, one of them must have been a switch - who was the switch? Was it Borzello? Not sure that gives much additional insight, but figured I'd point it out.

    - Chillin

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Unless Looney goes elsewhere, in which case we should probably ignore the Crystal Ball forever.
    In fairness, we may not need to completely ignore it, but it could be we should ignore it until around 18 hours before an announcement.

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Correct side of the Durham/CH border
    Maybe Borzello is simply walking out on the limb so to speak given that Donovan visited Looney as well. Maybe be figures 50/50 shot, why not...

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Location
    Madison, WI
    I'm amazed that these people get paid to do this. This has to be the 2013 version of the gypsy fortune teller.

  16. #76
    A 4th has come in for looney to Florida. It doesn't look like any had predictions before (though I could be misinterpreting this - 1st time I've looked at the site).

    My guess is someone thinks they've got a bit of inside info here and this is how that one bit is making it through the network. To avoid more highly entertaining (sarcasm - sorry I couldn't resist) conversation about the actual insight of these prognosticators, my use of "thinks" and "bit" are intentional, not fillers.

  17. #77

    Conviction/confidence

    Pet idea for 247 - why not have the crystal ball folks attach a confidence rating to their prediction (eg 1 = school xyz is the leader, but it's so wide open odds are below 25% he actually ends up there, through 5= bet the farm, this kid is 100% headed to xyz)? That would greatly enhance the user experience and could be used to improve the prognosticator accuracy rating system. I'm probably missing something - let me have it. Naturally, this would reveal a big overconfidence bias, but that's tangential.

  18. #78
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    The two guys not named Borzello could easily be the types trying to "get famous" by picking the dark horse. They are 12-9 and 21-9 in their picks, both worse than, say, Airowe.

    Borzello is a real interesting development at 34-4. As you say, he is a pretty well known voice. I'm certainly not excited to see him spring for Florida.

    As a follow up question, we are now across 34 analysts in total. By my last count we were at 32. So of the three new Florida predictions, one of them must have been a switch - who was the switch? Was it Borzello? Not sure that gives much additional insight, but figured I'd point it out.
    It is worth noting that Borzello or anyone else with a prediction could change that prediction any time up until the actual announcement and be credited with getting it right. There is no penalty in the system -- at least not so far -- for being wrong for a long time and then flipping and being right at the last minute.

    Based on our observations of the Okonoboh recruitment, in which many gurus changed their picks 2 or 3 times in the final hours, I would not be at all surprised to see a major flurry of activity on Looney until noon today. In fact, if we don't see something like that it is probably a very good sign for Duke.

    -Jason "I fully believe that every Okajones prediction is barely even a guess at this point - on one really knows what those two are thinking" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    Pet idea for 247 - why not have the crystal ball folks attach a confidence rating to their prediction (eg 1 = school xyz is the leader, but it's so wide open odds are below 25% he actually ends up there, through 5= bet the farm, this kid is 100% headed to xyz)? That would greatly enhance the user experience and could be used to improve the prognosticator accuracy rating system. I'm probably missing something - let me have it. Naturally, this would reveal a big overconfidence bias, but that's tangential.
    I like it, and suggested the same upthread. This Looney recruitment would merit a confidence rating of 1 for many.

    Jeff Borzello picked Fla but just tweeted that everyone is in the dark on this recruitment.

  20. #80
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    Pet idea for 247 - why not have the crystal ball folks attach a confidence rating to their prediction (eg 1 = school xyz is the leader, but it's so wide open odds are below 25% he actually ends up there, through 5= bet the farm, this kid is 100% headed to xyz)? That would greatly enhance the user experience and could be used to improve the prognosticator accuracy rating system. I'm probably missing something - let me have it. Naturally, this would reveal a big overconfidence bias, but that's tangential.
    Jerry Meyer indicated that the 100% Looney to Duke status of the 247 Crystal Ball as of about a day or so ago was partly due to the fact that most experts weren't too sure, but they thought Duke was the most likely in the midst of that uncertainty. Thus, most of them probably would have put their confidence at 2-3 or so. Part of the issue though is that truthfully someone can be uber confident on July 26th, and yet change their prediction on October 31st to something totally different and yet truthfully be uber confident in that prediction in that particular moment in time. The better question is "how confident are you that things will not change subsequent to the point of your making your prediction?" I'm guessing most everyone would give that a big fat "1" given we are dealing with teens in the midst of complicated "circles" of stakeholders.

    My pet issue is that it isn't (and can't be) blinded. Inevitably people just go with the flow. It's only when multiple bigger names make changes that it likely is something substantive, because those bigger names have to really think for themselves, rather than the less well known types who are just gambling their way into some modicum of credibility for the future by tying themselves at the hip to Borzello or whomever.

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