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  1. #21
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Just by reading Jason Evans' posts / timestamps, check out this trajectory! According to the Crystal Ball (that's kinda fun to say), Okonoboh has gone from:

    6:19pm 10/2: 95.7% going to Indiana
    10:18pm 10/2: 78.6% IU
    10:57am today: 54%
    11:14am today: 34%

    Now (5:44pm): 16%

    Wowza! This tells me two things: (1) it appears the gurus were off on this one heading into today and (2) stinks to be an Indiana fan tonight.

    - Chillin

    ETA - Either my eyes deceived me when I just posted, or IU is now 15%. (1 min later)
    Last edited by ChillinDuke; 10-03-2013 at 05:50 PM. Reason: ETA

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Just by reading Jason Evans' posts / timestamps, check out this trajectory! According to the Crystal Ball (that's kinda fun to say), Okonoboh has gone from:

    6:19pm 10/2: 95.7% going to Indiana
    10:18pm 10/2: 78.6% IU
    10:57am today: 54%
    11:14am today: 34%

    Now (5:44pm): 16%

    Wowza! This tells me two things: (1) it appears the gurus were off on this one heading into today and (2) stinks to be an Indiana fan tonight.

    - Chillin

    ETA - Either my eyes deceived me when I just posted, or IU is now 15%. (1 min later)
    Would be a yuck if he went to IU!

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Adam Rowe has now changed his prediction to UNLV...hmmmm. It seems like there is a lot of movement in the last day of predictions making somebody's % accurate rate perhaps a bit flawed. If somebody chooses the wrong school for the five months leading up to it, but then changes it the day of to the correct one, he/she gets credit for a correct prediction. (Of course, the inverse is true as well.) I guess that's why people had suggested accuracy based on days out, etc. They're probably not collecting that historical data, though, and just store the last prediction. But that would be nice. Either way, a cool feature.

    We're collecting all that data. Haven't figured out what to do with it just yet, but hopefully will be able to learn some things about the predictors and recruiting at the same time.

    To answer other questions, there are certainly copycat predictors and those who just parse tweets. There are some who work recruits, sources and coaches to get actual infi too. Although, that's not completely accurate either.

    Its a fun tool, but shouldn't be looked at as gospel either. Just a way to get everyone's predictions on record in one place.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Airowe (Adam), you should not have made that switch this morning from UNLV to Ohio State. Okonoboh picked the Runnin' Rebs this evening. UNLV was only the pick of 27% of the gurus. 58% said OSU and just 15% stuck with Indiana until the bitter end.

    28 recruiting experts made their pick (or changed from an earlier one) in the final 24 hour of Okonoboh's recruitment. Only 5 made a pick more than a couple days ago and stuck with it.

    This was a really interesting exercise. I look forward to watching the process for other top tier recruits unfold. I'll say this, the lesson for Duke fans -- who look at the 247 rankings of Okafor, Jones, and Looney and see 100% predicting Duke -- is that it is all just mildly educated guessing until the final few days. The moment Goodluck announced, the IU community probably felt super confident. But, it appears they may not have even been his backup choice when Okonoboh made his decision.

    -Jason "this whole exercise makes me sorta nervous about Okafor, Jones, and Looney" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Airowe (Adam), you should not have made that switch this morning from UNLV to Ohio State. Okonoboh picked the Runnin' Rebs this evening. UNLV was only the pick of 27% of the gurus. 58% said OSU and just 15% stuck with Indiana until the bitter end.

    28 recruiting experts made their pick (or changed from an earlier one) in the final 24 hour of Okonoboh's recruitment. Only 5 made a pick more than a couple days ago and stuck with it.

    This was a really interesting exercise. I look forward to watching the process for other top tier recruits unfold. I'll say this, the lesson for Duke fans -- who look at the 247 rankings of Okafor, Jones, and Looney and see 100% predicting Duke -- is that it is all just mildly educated guessing until the final few days. The moment Goodluck announced, the IU community probably felt super confident. But, it appears they may not have even been his backup choice when Okonoboh made his decision.

    -Jason "this whole exercise makes me sorta nervous about Okafor, Jones, and Looney" Evans
    I wouldn't let this exercise make you nervous about Okafor and Jones. They have been very consistent for a very long time about the package. This includes very recent reaffirmation by Tyus of their intention to play together. I just don't see that changing at this pretty late date. Could be wrong, but I don't see that happening unless somebody just wants to do something rash just to prove people wrong or express his independence, or something like that.

    So then you have to look at Kansas. The Jayhawks are widely perceived to be the "leader" (I'm growing to really hate that term vis-a-vis recruiting) for Chicago power player Cliff Alexander. Lots of folks actually in the know are feeling that one pretty strongly. If Alexander goes there, then the chances that Jahlil will want to go there have to decrease significantly. If he and Tyus are packaging, it's going to be at Kansas or Duke, and if Alexander is at Kansas, then that leaves Duke. And even that analysis is looking at it from a "backing into it" perspective. I think it's just as likely that Jahlil and Tyus make an affirmative decision that regardless of where they think Cliff Alexander or anyone else is going, that they are the best players in the nation at their respective positions, they want to play for Mike Krzyzewski and they want to be Blue Devils, and they're coming here.

    Again, could be wrong, but that's the way I'm thinking about this.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Airowe (Adam), you should not have made that switch this morning from UNLV to Ohio State. Okonoboh picked the Runnin' Rebs this evening. UNLV was only the pick of 27% of the gurus. 58% said OSU and just 15% stuck with Indiana until the bitter end.

    28 recruiting experts made their pick (or changed from an earlier one) in the final 24 hour of Okonoboh's recruitment. Only 5 made a pick more than a couple days ago and stuck with it.

    This was a really interesting exercise. I look forward to watching the process for other top tier recruits unfold. I'll say this, the lesson for Duke fans -- who look at the 247 rankings of Okafor, Jones, and Looney and see 100% predicting Duke -- is that it is all just mildly educated guessing until the final few days. The moment Goodluck announced, the IU community probably felt super confident. But, it appears they may not have even been his backup choice when Okonoboh made his decision.

    -Jason "this whole exercise makes me sorta nervous about Okafor, Jones, and Looney" Evans
    Ha ha, just goes to show how unpredictable recruiting can be. Fortunately (strategically) for Duke, they get the last visit for Jones and Okafor.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Asheville, NC

    Order of Visits

    Quote Originally Posted by airowe View Post
    Ha ha, just goes to show how unpredictable recruiting can be. Fortunately (strategically) for Duke, they get the last visit for Jones and Okafor.
    This makes me wonder, and it would probably take a fair amount of research, but what is the percentage of top recruits that decided to go to the school that they visited last? It seems like being last would be an advantage, but from my (flawed) memory, it seems that order really doesn't really have much of an impact on the final decisions.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by airowe View Post
    We're collecting all that data. Haven't figured out what to do with it just yet, but hopefully will be able to learn some things about the predictors and recruiting at the same time.

    To answer other questions, there are certainly copycat predictors and those who just parse tweets. There are some who work recruits, sources and coaches to get actual infi too. Although, that's not completely accurate either.

    Its a fun tool, but shouldn't be looked at as gospel either. Just a way to get everyone's predictions on record in one place.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Airowe (Adam), you should not have made that switch this morning from UNLV to Ohio State. Okonoboh picked the Runnin' Rebs this evening. UNLV was only the pick of 27% of the gurus. 58% said OSU and just 15% stuck with Indiana until the bitter end.

    28 recruiting experts made their pick (or changed from an earlier one) in the final 24 hour of Okonoboh's recruitment. Only 5 made a pick more than a couple days ago and stuck with it.

    This was a really interesting exercise. I look forward to watching the process for other top tier recruits unfold. I'll say this, the lesson for Duke fans -- who look at the 247 rankings of Okafor, Jones, and Looney and see 100% predicting Duke -- is that it is all just mildly educated guessing until the final few days. The moment Goodluck announced, the IU community probably felt super confident. But, it appears they may not have even been his backup choice when Okonoboh made his decision.

    -Jason "this whole exercise makes me sorta nervous about Okafor, Jones, and Looney" Evans
    Cool stuff.

    I'm definitely going to be watching as well.

    Good luck to Goodluck at UNLV.

    - Chillin

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by airowe View Post
    Ha ha, just goes to show how unpredictable recruiting can be. Fortunately (strategically) for Duke, they get the last visit for Jones and Okafor.
    Adam - can you please expand on this? Is it statistically relevant that recruits pick the school of which they last visited? I have no idea regarding what goes on during these visit, and how recruits process any of the info.

    Thanks
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by airowe View Post
    Ha ha, just goes to show how unpredictable recruiting can be. Fortunately (strategically) for Duke, they get the last visit for Jones and Okafor.
    It would also be interesting to somehow assess how the advertised guesses affect the actual decision-making process. For one, I can see some kids or relatives gaming the system even more than they already do by hinting things to various people to see if they can get affect the prognostication. I can also see other kids (as we've seen this year) get kinda irritated that they are seen as in the bag for a particular school, as if they don't have a free choice in the matter.

    If I were in their shoes, I'd be checking out 247 just because I couldn't help myself. I'd also be looking at all the fan web sites, like this one, and would probably not have time to practice. Anyway, if guys like me (the--hypothetical--real me, not the fictitious one) made dig comments about the fictitious version of me, the fictitious version might get peeved and decide to go elsewhere, even though the fictional (athletic) me would be highly unlikely to ever meet the hypthetical real me who is several decades from being eligible to sit in the student section of games.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    If I were in their shoes, I'd be checking out 247 just because I couldn't help myself. I'd also be looking at all the fan web sites, like this one, and would probably not have time to practice. Anyway, if guys like me (the--hypothetical--real me, not the fictitious one) made dig comments about the fictitious version of me, the fictitious version might get peeved and decide to go elsewhere, even though the fictional (athletic) me would be highly unlikely to ever meet the hypthetical real me who is several decades from being eligible to sit in the student section of games.
    Huh? I got real lost in that paragraph.

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    If I were in their shoes, I'd be checking out 247 just because I couldn't help myself. I'd also be looking at all the fan web sites, like this one, and would probably not have time to practice. Anyway, if guys like me (the--hypothetical--real me, not the fictitious one) made dig comments about the fictitious version of me, the fictitious version might get peeved and decide to go elsewhere, even though the fictional (athletic) me would be highly unlikely to ever meet the hypthetical real me who is several decades from being eligible to sit in the student section of games.
    The hypothetical, fictitious version of me found this paragraph hysterical.

    The real, unathletic version of me was just scratching my head.

    -Jason "well done sir " Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Adam - can you please expand on this? Is it statistically relevant that recruits pick the school of which they last visited? I have no idea regarding what goes on during these visit, and how recruits process any of the info.

    Thanks
    It's generally thought to be an advantageous position for a school to get the last visit for prospects, so they are able to dispel any negative recruiting that were to come their way and so that any positive effects from the visit will weigh most heavily on the recruit's mind when sitting down to make the final decision. No two recruitments or recruits are alike though, so it's just a (commonly accepted) theory.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    If I were in their shoes, I'd be checking out 247 just because I couldn't help myself. I'd also be looking at all the fan web sites, like this one, and would probably not have time to practice. Anyway, if guys like me (the--hypothetical--real me, not the fictitious one) made dig comments about the fictitious version of me, the fictitious version might get peeved and decide to go elsewhere, even though the fictional (athletic) me would be highly unlikely to ever meet the hypthetical real me who is several decades from being eligible to sit in the student section of games.
    The hypothetical coaches in this scenario would probably not want a hypothetical player such as your hypothetical self who would choose his or her college destination based on the hypothetical statements of other hypothetical people.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    So then you have to look at Kansas. The Jayhawks are widely perceived to be the "leader" (I'm growing to really hate that term vis-a-vis recruiting) for Chicago power player Cliff Alexander. Lots of folks actually in the know are feeling that one pretty strongly. If Alexander goes there, then the chances that Jahlil will want to go there have to decrease significantly. If he and Tyus are packaging, it's going to be at Kansas or Duke, and if Alexander is at Kansas, then that leaves Duke. And even that analysis is looking at it from a "backing into it" perspective. I think it's just as likely that Jahlil and Tyus make an affirmative decision that regardless of where they think Cliff Alexander or anyone else is going, that they are the best players in the nation at their respective positions, they want to play for Mike Krzyzewski and they want to be Blue Devils, and they're coming here.
    Well, reading it that way, if Okafor thinks he is the best player at his position, why would Cliff Alexander scare him away from KU?

  16. #36
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    Just by reading Jason Evans' posts / timestamps, check out this trajectory! According to the Crystal Ball (that's kinda fun to say), Okonoboh has gone from:

    6:19pm 10/2: 95.7% going to Indiana
    10:18pm 10/2: 78.6% IU
    10:57am today: 54%
    11:14am today: 34%

    Now (5:44pm): 16%

    Wowza! This tells me two things: (1) it appears the gurus were off on this one heading into today and (2) stinks to be an Indiana fan tonight.

    - Chillin

    ETA - Either my eyes deceived me when I just posted, or IU is now 15%. (1 min later)
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Airowe (Adam), you should not have made that switch this morning from UNLV to Ohio State. Okonoboh picked the Runnin' Rebs this evening. UNLV was only the pick of 27% of the gurus. 58% said OSU and just 15% stuck with Indiana until the bitter end.

    28 recruiting experts made their pick (or changed from an earlier one) in the final 24 hour of Okonoboh's recruitment. Only 5 made a pick more than a couple days ago and stuck with it.

    This was a really interesting exercise. I look forward to watching the process for other top tier recruits unfold. I'll say this, the lesson for Duke fans -- who look at the 247 rankings of Okafor, Jones, and Looney and see 100% predicting Duke -- is that it is all just mildly educated guessing until the final few days. The moment Goodluck announced, the IU community probably felt super confident. But, it appears they may not have even been his backup choice when Okonoboh made his decision.

    -Jason "this whole exercise makes me sorta nervous about Okafor, Jones, and Looney" Evans
    For anyone interested in the 24/7 Crystal Ball predictor, I figured I'd revive this thread for Looney's upcoming announcement on Thursday 12noon (Eastern, I think).

    I re-posted the above two quotes to give some background as to how crazy the Goodluck Okonoboh 247 CB was in the final hours leading up to his announcement on 10/3.

    Thus far, Looney's CB is steady at 100% Duke, 49 hours out. Note the last four predictions for Kevon were two on 10/16 and two on 10/9. Nothing since then. Perhaps the calm before the storm?

    - Chillin

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York City
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    For anyone interested in the 24/7 Crystal Ball predictor, I figured I'd revive this thread for Looney's upcoming announcement on Thursday 12noon (Eastern, I think).

    I re-posted the above two quotes to give some background as to how crazy the Goodluck Okonoboh 247 CB was in the final hours leading up to his announcement on 10/3.

    Thus far, Looney's CB is steady at 100% Duke, 49 hours out. Note the last four predictions for Kevon were two on 10/16 and two on 10/9. Nothing since then. Perhaps the calm before the storm?

    - Chillin

    I'm re-posting something from the 2014 recruiting thread:

    Jerry Meyer is now predicting Justise to Duke and Stanley Johnson to Arizona. He also predicts Reid Travis to Minnesota. I hope he's right. Especially if it means Travis is going elsewhere because we're getting Looney too.
    Singler is IRON

    I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013

  18. #38
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Well, we have our first activity.

    An analyst apparently with UK allegiances has made a call: Looney to Duke.

    This was his first prediction. So we're still at 100%, but now we're across 28 analysts from 27.

    - Chillin

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Another Duke prediction added to the Looney page a little after 5 PM. This one is from someone at "Roundball Rundown Report."

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    I wish Halloween had fallen on a Monday this year. It would have been cool to call it "Looney Lunedi"!

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