24/7 recruiting predictions discussion

[GGLC]

Both Okafor and Jones are over 90% Duke on the 24/7 site the day before the announcements. If Okafor and Jones don't both commit to Duke, can we agree that the 24/7 is no better than my consulting my brother-in-law, a random street person, or a chimpanzee?

How intuitive is the chimpanzee?

[G man]

How intuitive is the chimpanzee?

We talking curious George or planet of the apes???

[JohnGalt]

How intuitive is the chimpanzee?

I'll bet not as intuitive as Paul the Octopus...may he rest in peace.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_the_Octopus

[UrinalCake]

I'm thinking back to airowe's earlier comment that picks made in the 24 hours before the announcement are not credited as a correct pick. If I've understood this correctly, and the experts/insiders themselves understand this, then we may see a lot of activity in the next few hours as they try to get in before the 24-hour deadline.

I'll be looking more at whether there's general movement towards or away from Duke, rather than looking at the raw percentages that have us picked. I think that's where the tool has the most value.

[budwom]

I still don't have the faintest idea why these people are referred to as experts or insiders. Must be a religious situation.

[SilkyJ]

Give credit where credit is due. It's pure, unadulterated junk. One would have better
info by examining the entrails of dead porcupines.

The wondrousness of the internet has brought us a slew of "insiders" and "experts" who are clearly neither.

This would seem harsh. As airowe pointed out, the tool has been about 75% accurate and there are plenty of guys over 80%. Recruiting info is imperfect but the tool definitely serves to show who are really in the know vs those who aren't, and if its right 3/4 times, well I'd take those odds in vegas any time.

I'm out. Seems people have made up their minds at this point. Not one to try and change them.

No way! I like the tool and have definitely not made up mind in a negative way. If anything its early success is solid.

[GGLC]

No way! I like the tool and have definitely not made up mind in a negative way. If anything its early success is solid.

Really?

The next high-profile, truly up-in-the-air decision (as in, top ~30 recruit who comes down to the wire with three or more teams in contention) that the Crystal Ball gets right will be the first, as far as I can tell.

[NSDukeFan]

Really?

The next high-profile, truly up-in-the-air decision (as in, top ~30 recruit who comes down to the wire with three or more teams in contention) that the Crystal Ball gets right will be the first, as far as I can tell.

If a decision is truly up-in-the-air with many teams in contention, which I would take as the recruit being undecided, would you expect recruiting gurus or experts to know where this undecided recruit is going? I like what the Crystal Ball is attempting to do, but I don't actually believe that it is a crystal ball that can predict the future when it is unknown.

[flyingdutchdevil]

If a decision is truly up-in-the-air with many teams in contention, which I would take as the recruit being undecided, would you expect recruiting gurus or experts to know where this undecided recruit is going? I like what the Crystal Ball is attempting to do, but I don't actually believe that it is a crystal ball that can predict the future when it is unknown.

I really like the idea of the Crystal Ball, but the way it's set up and the analysts just aren't up to par for the tool.

The Crystal Ball is like the portfolio of an equities trader: they try to predict the best performing stocks. The traders with the highest performance get the most recognition. Also, traders who are the most insightful and manage to outsmart the market are the most insightful.

Now, I haven't been following 247 for too long, but I did follow both Looney and Travis.

For Looney, no one had UCLA. Of the 34 analysts, 0 chose UCLA. I understand that analysts don't know the answer; this is an educated guess for them. They know more than the average fan. However, to be blindsided like that? Wow. It really undermines the whole system.

For Reid Travis, 18% of the analysts got it right. Towards the end of his recruitment, there was a lot of public knowledge out there that he was done to Stanford and Minnesota. In the tool's defense, 68% chose Minn. However, the remainder, 14%, chose Duke. I interpret this two ways: analysts were lazy and didn't change or analysts wanted to play hero and chose the super dark horse (Duke). Either of these excuses makes the tool significantly less effective and undermines it's power.

Thus, to conclude, the tool is really interesting. As a quant jock, I like it. But there are too many issues with it right now, and a lot of those issues stem from the analysts themselves.

I am not trying to insult anyone who puts data into the tool (including our very own Adam Rowe), but 247 needs to communicate something to the analysts to make them more accountable for their choices.

[SilkyJ]

Really?

The next high-profile, truly up-in-the-air decision (as in, top ~30 recruit who comes down to the wire with three or more teams in contention) that the Crystal Ball gets right will be the first, as far as I can tell.

See Pinson, Theo. 16/22 analysts had him to UNC, a few had him to Indiana. The picks moved from Indiana to UNC in the weeks leading up to his decision in May. The Crystal Ball Worked.

Moreover, "up in the air" is an awfully ambiguous term. How do we really know if the decision was up in the air or not? Aren't they all? What defines up in the air--if all the analysts are picking someone to a certain school, then is that not up in the air? If OkaJones picks Duke, even though 90%+ of analysts have them to Duke, and have had them to Duke for a while, I'd still say it was an up in the air recruitment.

Going even further, isn't the tool still useful if it confirms a less than up in the air recruitment? Take Kelly Oubre. Vast majority of analysts had him to Kansas and by the time it was all said and done everyone had him there. If you're a Kansas fan that feels useful to me. And b/c of the "days to prediction" factor, you can start to gauge, over time, who has the inside track routinely, for certain schools only, etc.

[brevity]

I really like the idea of the Crystal Ball, but the way it's set up and the analysts just aren't up to par for the tool.

I wonder if the problem with the Crystal Ball (or the problem people have with it) is that its composition of experts isn't representative or national enough. Imagine how different college football polls would be if the AP poll were voted on by California sportswriters, and the coaches' poll had no voters in the Deep South. At the very least, it would show significant bias, because a regional opinion of national events is incomplete.

Looking at the 24/7 site, Jahlil Okafor is predicted by 91% of its experts as going to Duke, with the remaining 9% selecting Kansas. But that 9% is only 5 people. One appears to be working on a national level. One is based in Memphis. The other 3 are a contributor and a pair of insiders for Kansas. There's nothing wrong with any of this, but it makes me want to attach a big asterisk to that 9%. Why are there 3 Jayhawk experts in a group of 57? Does, say, Wisconsin have that many? More to the point, what about UCLA and UNLV? Maybe the Crystal Ball is just poorly represented out West.

How many of these experts have firsthand intel on a recruit? Are the national experts actually traveling the country, or are they relying on a network of local resources? In other words, is the national guy who picked Kansas merely echoing the opinions of the Jayhawk guys because they have a good working relationship and he trusts them? Again, there is nothing wrong with this, but it makes the Crystal Ball's numbers even less meaningful.

Bear in mind that I've been talking about one recruit who happens to be at the top of most recruiting lists, and whose decision is of national (sports) interest. What about some second-tier player in Boston who has narrowed his list to 5 Northeastern schools? Do the Kansas guys even bother following him? And if they don't, why should their predictions count the same as those closer to the story who have been paying more attention?

I'm a person who lacks the time or interest to follow recruiting, even on DBR. Still, I like the idea of the Crystal Ball because it consolidates the opinions of many experts into a single place and tells the story of a recruit as they see it, with the recruit himself free to add his own (twist) ending. I'm okay with that because I'm not using the Crystal Ball for accuracy. But what would it take if I did?

[airowe]

Here's a more national Crystal Ball. If Jahlil doesn't pick Duke, we'll say all of these other websites who got the pick wrong (in addition to 247Sports) are pure, unadultered junk and are no better than my consulting my brother-in-law, a random street person, or a chimpanzee.

http://www.highschoolcubenews.com/ne...le/show/310077

[NSDukeFan]

Here's a more national Crystal Ball. If Jahlil doesn't pick Duke, we'll say all of these other websites who got the pick wrong (in addition to 247Sports) are pure, unadultered junk and are no better than my consulting my brother-in-law, a random street person, or a chimpanzee.

http://www.highschoolcubenews.com/ne...le/show/310077

If the Crystal Ball isn't right this time, I am done with following recruiting...at least until there is any news about Winslow.

[TexHawk]

Looking at the 24/7 site, Jahlil Okafor is predicted by 91% of its experts as going to Duke, with the remaining 9% selecting Kansas. But that 9% is only 5 people. One appears to be working on a national level. One is based in Memphis. The other 3 are a contributor and a pair of insiders for Kansas. There's nothing wrong with any of this, but it makes me want to attach a big asterisk to that 9%. Why are there 3 Jayhawk experts in a group of 57? Does, say, Wisconsin have that many? More to the point, what about UCLA and UNLV? Maybe the Crystal Ball is just poorly represented out West.

Without even going into all of that, has anyone checked the dates of these predictions? Only 10 of them have been made or changed in November. Does the prediction by the guy at Bucknuts in mid-May count the same? That guy probably hasn't paid attention to Okafor much at all since then. Or maybe he has paid attention, but sees no reason to change it.

[_Gary]

Here's a more national Crystal Ball. If Jahlil doesn't pick Duke, we'll say all of these other websites who got the pick wrong (in addition to 247Sports) are pure, unadultered junk and are no better than my consulting my brother-in-law, a random street person, or a chimpanzee.

http://www.highschoolcubenews.com/ne...le/show/310077

Is it just me or is there something about some of the Chicago guys having Jahlil to Kansas? Do they somehow have truly inside info that is causing them to pick the way they are? Or am I wrong in seeing that connection?

[Duvall]

Is it just me or is there something about Chicago guys having Jahlil to Kansas? Do they somehow have truly inside info that is causing them to pick the way they are? Or am I wrong in seeing that connection?

Most of the people making the Sun-Times picks are Chicago guys, so there's no connection.

If there's inside info making the rounds in Chicago, it points to Okafor committing to Duke - that's the word on the street there. Of course, the word on the street could be completely wrong.

[moonpie23]

Skype has dimmed my enthusiasm for recruiting predictions….

[JasonEvans]

Without even going into all of that, has anyone checked the dates of these predictions? Only 10 of them have been made or changed in November. Does the prediction by the guy at Bucknuts in mid-May count the same? That guy probably hasn't paid attention to Okafor much at all since then. Or maybe he has paid attention, but sees no reason to change it.

I've brought this up on this board, the fact that a school can appear to have momentum but it is not clear because older picks could still be right or just be out of date. Adam Rowe has indicated that it is something 24/7 is considering -- some means to "re-affirm" a pick or some measure of confidence. I would imagine that a pick made in March would carry a low confidence number as the players have not taken visits at that point and most kids commit in the fall.

If 24/7 has a method for a guru who picked Duke a while ago with a low confidence to confirm his pick today and place a higher confidence reading on it, that would likely make the predictive value of the CB much better. I think it would be fascinating to see how gurus did on picks with a high confidence factor versus ones where they are really just making a guess. That would be a tremendous improvement to the system.

-Jason "is it 4pm yet?" Evans

[Newton_14]

Here's a more national Crystal Ball. If Jahlil doesn't pick Duke, we'll say all of these other websites who got the pick wrong (in addition to 247Sports) are pure, unadultered junk and are no better than my consulting my brother-in-law, a random street person, or a chimpanzee.

http://www.highschoolcubenews.com/ne...le/show/310077

Props for all the hard work and reporting by you and Andrew on this one. It has been great. We all want tomorrow to go our way, and hopefully it will. If it doesn't though, it won't be your fault, Andrew' fault, 247's fault, or anyone else' "fault".

I learned from the "He who shall not be named" recruitment, that at the end of the day, sometimes human beings lie for the sake of drama or not wanting to be forthright when they should be. It happens far too often in recruiting these days, but it is a fact that it happens. It happened with HB, it happened with Looney, and I am sure there have been countless others.

All you or any other reporter can do is beat the path, ask the questions, record the answers, and share with your readers the stuff you feel in your heart and gut is credible and worth sharing. Can't speak for others but that's all I will ever ask of you. Keep up the good work.

I like the Crystal Ball feature. It ain't perfect and like Jason Evans suggested, can be improved with some simple tweaks, but it is unique and requires accountability because as we move forward and have more data, the %rate of right vs wrong will start to separate the wheat from the tares.

[Dukehky]

Some of the Kentucky contingent on 247 have switched their predictions from Duke to Kansas. The trends are still about equal, and Duke still has almost 90% of the predictions; but I don't know what these Wildcat Weirdos are trying to do here.

Also, I like the CB. It threw me off on Looney a little bit, but evidently that cat was just kinda strange. It gives me something to watch and feel like I know what's going on without having to drop dimes on recruiting websites which I wouldn't use except like one week out of the year.

Airowe, you the man. You have given me some confidence with this duo, maybe that will end up being a bad thing, but right now, it's good.