Uh-oh...
Speaking of Kevon, there have been 3 new predictions this evening... all three for Florida. It ain't 100% Duke anymore.
-Jason "worth noting that among the new Florida predictors is Jeff Borzello of CBS Sports... a fairly well known recruiting guru" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
considering we heard so much about how Looney had such admiration for Cuonzo Martin at Tennessee and about how his family had connections to that school and the coaching staff there, picking Florida would really be a punch in the gut for those Tennessee folks.
Wow, would not want to be in Knoxville tonight!
-Jason "we'll know in about 14 hours" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Will Looney's decision be on live TV ?
Jeff Borzello stated that Nate James and Billy Donovan both visited Looney today. Borzello predicted Florida on 247sports. We shall see.
Yeah, that would be a real CB stinker.
The two guys not named Borzello could easily be the types trying to "get famous" by picking the dark horse. They are 12-9 and 21-9 in their picks, both worse than, say, Airowe.
Borzello is a real interesting development at 34-4. As you say, he is a pretty well known voice. I'm certainly not excited to see him spring for Florida.
As a follow up question, we are now across 34 analysts in total. By my last count we were at 32. So of the three new Florida predictions, one of them must have been a switch - who was the switch? Was it Borzello? Not sure that gives much additional insight, but figured I'd point it out.
- Chillin
Maybe Borzello is simply walking out on the limb so to speak given that Donovan visited Looney as well. Maybe be figures 50/50 shot, why not...
I'm amazed that these people get paid to do this. This has to be the 2013 version of the gypsy fortune teller.
A 4th has come in for looney to Florida. It doesn't look like any had predictions before (though I could be misinterpreting this - 1st time I've looked at the site).
My guess is someone thinks they've got a bit of inside info here and this is how that one bit is making it through the network. To avoid more highly entertaining (sarcasm - sorry I couldn't resist) conversation about the actual insight of these prognosticators, my use of "thinks" and "bit" are intentional, not fillers.
Pet idea for 247 - why not have the crystal ball folks attach a confidence rating to their prediction (eg 1 = school xyz is the leader, but it's so wide open odds are below 25% he actually ends up there, through 5= bet the farm, this kid is 100% headed to xyz)? That would greatly enhance the user experience and could be used to improve the prognosticator accuracy rating system. I'm probably missing something - let me have it. Naturally, this would reveal a big overconfidence bias, but that's tangential.
It is worth noting that Borzello or anyone else with a prediction could change that prediction any time up until the actual announcement and be credited with getting it right. There is no penalty in the system -- at least not so far -- for being wrong for a long time and then flipping and being right at the last minute.
Based on our observations of the Okonoboh recruitment, in which many gurus changed their picks 2 or 3 times in the final hours, I would not be at all surprised to see a major flurry of activity on Looney until noon today. In fact, if we don't see something like that it is probably a very good sign for Duke.
-Jason "I fully believe that every Okajones prediction is barely even a guess at this point - on one really knows what those two are thinking" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Jerry Meyer indicated that the 100% Looney to Duke status of the 247 Crystal Ball as of about a day or so ago was partly due to the fact that most experts weren't too sure, but they thought Duke was the most likely in the midst of that uncertainty. Thus, most of them probably would have put their confidence at 2-3 or so. Part of the issue though is that truthfully someone can be uber confident on July 26th, and yet change their prediction on October 31st to something totally different and yet truthfully be uber confident in that prediction in that particular moment in time. The better question is "how confident are you that things will not change subsequent to the point of your making your prediction?" I'm guessing most everyone would give that a big fat "1" given we are dealing with teens in the midst of complicated "circles" of stakeholders.
My pet issue is that it isn't (and can't be) blinded. Inevitably people just go with the flow. It's only when multiple bigger names make changes that it likely is something substantive, because those bigger names have to really think for themselves, rather than the less well known types who are just gambling their way into some modicum of credibility for the future by tying themselves at the hip to Borzello or whomever.