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  1. #1
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    24/7 recruiting predictions discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Massachussetts big man Goodluck Okonoboh is going to announce his college decision tomorrow night. Although he had Duke in his final group, there appear to be no signs pointing to him committing to the Blue Devils.
    247 Sports has 23 predictions of where he is going to go. 22 of them, including our own Adam Rowe, say Indiana is getting him. Many of the predictions date back to mid-summer so Indiana has been the perceived leader for quite a while. It is worth noting that one person picked Ohio State and made that prediction just a couple days ago. We shall see!

    -Jason "kinda cool -- I'm loving 247 Sports prediction feature!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    247 Sports has 23 predictions of where he is going to go. 22 of them, including our own Adam Rowe, say Indiana is getting him. Many of the predictions date back to mid-summer so Indiana has been the perceived leader for quite a while. It is worth noting that one person picked Ohio State and made that prediction just a couple days ago. We shall see!

    -Jason "kinda cool -- I'm loving 247 Sports prediction feature!" Evans
    WHOA!!! There has been a flurry of new predictions on the 247 site and they make this a much more interesting race. In the past few hours, 5 new recruiting gurus have made predictions and 4 of them are Ohio State. One of them, Jeff Borzello of CBS, says Okonoboh is going to UNLV.

    So, we have this long run of everyone saying Indiana and then suddenly, with only hours left until the decision is announced, there is a rush of Ohio State picks.

    -Jason "glad I am not an IU fan, as this would have me truly freaking out right now!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    WHOA!!! There has been a flurry of new predictions on the 247 site and they make this a much more interesting race. In the past few hours, 5 new recruiting gurus have made predictions and 4 of them are Ohio State. One of them, Jeff Borzello of CBS, says Okonoboh is going to UNLV.

    So, we have this long run of everyone saying Indiana and then suddenly, with only hours left until the decision is announced, there is a rush of Ohio State picks.

    -Jason "glad I am not an IU fan, as this would have me truly freaking out right now!" Evans
    This is exactly why I think I'm going to love the 247 Crystal Ball concept. If done the right way, it's simple to get an average days correct on predicting where recruits will go and these 5 new recruiting gurus would be pretty low on that scale. Quickly, we would be able to see who has a good track record predicting recruits (granted, a "good" record may be well under 50%) and which people are better at which school, etc. And then if I were designing, a weighted average rating on where recruits are predicted based on an analyst's average days correct. Or something like this.

    I'm in.

    - Chillin

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    This is exactly why I think I'm going to love the 247 Crystal Ball concept. If done the right way, it's simple to get an average days correct on predicting where recruits will go and these 5 new recruiting gurus would be pretty low on that scale. Quickly, we would be able to see who has a good track record predicting recruits (granted, a "good" record may be well under 50%) and which people are better at which school, etc. And then if I were designing, a weighted average rating on where recruits are predicted based on an analyst's average days correct. Or something like this.
    I agree that the concept is interesting and fun. Regardless of how you analyze it though, it will always be inherently limited because it isn't blinded. There's no way to blind it and yet allow it to retain its commercial appeal to us pedestrian fans. As an extreme example, analyst B could always link hips virtually with supreme expert A and have a very similar 247 "correctness" rating, all the while, never contributing anything meanful him- or herself.

    In general I love the concept though because it saves me time in scouring twitter for tweets from these people. Sad, I know. Sigh.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    This is exactly why I think I'm going to love the 247 Crystal Ball concept. If done the right way, it's simple to get an average days correct on predicting where recruits will go and these 5 new recruiting gurus would be pretty low on that scale. Quickly, we would be able to see who has a good track record predicting recruits (granted, a "good" record may be well under 50%) and which people are better at which school, etc. And then if I were designing, a weighted average rating on where recruits are predicted based on an analyst's average days correct. Or something like this.

    I'm in.

    - Chillin
    I am excited and pissed off all at the same time. 247 Crystal Ball makes the recruiting game even more fun to follow and provides us with even more speculation and talking points (which is always a good thing, especially in the summer!).

    However, it's terrible for my emotional stability, my "hatred" of the recruiting process, and getting my hopes up and down like a roller coaster.

    I am amazed how much we love recruiting. It's like a drug, only that you probably waste more time and may not have to go to rehab (great idea - college recruiting rehab. My idea first!)
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  6. #6
    Crean must really be screwing things up on the recruiting trail..Comign off of a few good seasons for the first time in awhile and having two guys picked in the top 5 in the same year you wouldnt think it would be hard to get players to Indiana but theyve done nothing but have guys decomitt and lose recruiting battles except Robert Johnson whos a good player but nothing to do cartwheels over..

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    However, it's terrible for my emotional stability, my "hatred" of the recruiting process, and getting my hopes up and down like a roller coaster.

    I am amazed how much we love recruiting. It's like a drug, only that you probably waste more time and may not have to go to rehab (great idea - college recruiting rehab. My idea first!)
    Exactly. You can break this addiction, easily. Just give up on recruiting. Krzyzewski is the consummate professional. We may not win the national championship every single year, to the dismay of our whiniest fans, but he will recruit well enough to keep us among the top.

    If we were, I don't know, Iowa State or Vanderbilt, a perfectly respectable program, but one that needed to absolutely land a HUGE GUY to even get in the national discussion, I would understand the hysteria. But given that we're Duke, I don't. Rolls oughta be slowed. If he retires in fall 2016 and then Wojo can't get anyone in 2018, I'll panic. But in the meantime, let's act like we have some dignity.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  8. #8
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    Holy cow.

    Speaking of Wojo, I just wikied him for some reason. As y'all know, he's a Pole from Baltimore who went to a Catholic school. I also teach a class on The Wire, so we talk about Baltimore a lot in that class.

    Wojo's school closed due to cratering enrollment, in 2010. Like we haven't heard about that around here.

    I love me some Wojo.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  9. Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Exactly. You can break this addiction, easily. Just give up on recruiting.
    What I do is I only read recruiting threads for the coming year, and usually only after the current season is over. I ignore everything else -- recruiting is just too unpredictable to invest time following high school sophomores or juniors. This keeps the amount of reading manageable, and even if you do start to follow a particular recruit (e.g. Tyus Jones). it's usually only a matter of months before you get a resolution.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    Exactly. You can break this addiction, easily. Just give up on recruiting. Krzyzewski is the consummate professional. We may not win the national championship every single year, to the dismay of our whiniest fans, but he will recruit well enough to keep us among the top.

    If we were, I don't know, Iowa State or Vanderbilt, a perfectly respectable program, but one that needed to absolutely land a HUGE GUY to even get in the national discussion, I would understand the hysteria. But given that we're Duke, I don't. Rolls oughta be slowed. If he retires in fall 2016 and then Wojo can't get anyone in 2018, I'll panic. But in the meantime, let's act like we have some dignity.
    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    What I do is I only read recruiting threads for the coming year, and usually only after the current season is over. I ignore everything else -- recruiting is just too unpredictable to invest time following high school sophomores or juniors. This keeps the amount of reading manageable, and even if you do start to follow a particular recruit (e.g. Tyus Jones). it's usually only a matter of months before you get a resolution.
    That works for you guys, great. Why can't the rest of us enjoy our guilty habit / hobby?

    Many are so quick on this board to tell those of us that enjoy following recruiting to drop it. Well, that's not fair.

    And just because some of us go through the ups and downs of recruiting doesn't mean that:
    1) we don't think K is the consummate professional;
    2) our team's future hangs in the balance of any or every recruiting battle;
    3) you have to.

    - Chillin

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    This is exactly why I think I'm going to love the 247 Crystal Ball concept. If done the right way, it's simple to get an average days correct on predicting where recruits will go and these 5 new recruiting gurus would be pretty low on that scale. Quickly, we would be able to see who has a good track record predicting recruits (granted, a "good" record may be well under 50%) and which people are better at which school, etc. And then if I were designing, a weighted average rating on where recruits are predicted based on an analyst's average days correct. Or something like this.

    I'm in.

    - Chillin
    So, since I posted that note at 10pm last night, the tide seems to have turned again. It was all Indiana for many months. Then, late yesterday we started to see a flurry of Ohio State predictions. And now we are getting more and more UNLV predictions. 247's current crystal ball is 54% Indiana, 31% Ohio State, and 15% UNLV. But, if we look only at predictions made in the past few days, it is 8 Ohio State, 4 UNLV, and 2 Indiana. Of course, it is worth noting that anyone who had picked Indiana weeks or months ago who still thinks that is where he is going would not need to change/update their prediction.

    It is also worth noting that folks can change earlier predictions and we don't know what they predicted earlier. Our good friend Adam Rowe had been one of the over-the-summer Indiana predictors. Well, last night he changed his pick to UNLV. I've got no problem with Adam updating his prognostication, but if 247 really wants to present itself as some kind of compiler of guru predictions there needs to be some allowance made for the guys who say one thing for months and months and then change their tune at the last minute.

    -Jason "Adam is not nearly alone in changing his pick, he is merely the person I pointed out because we all know him here" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    It is also worth noting that folks can change earlier predictions and we don't know what they predicted earlier. Our good friend Adam Rowe had been one of the over-the-summer Indiana predictors. Well, last night he changed his pick to UNLV. I've got no problem with Adam updating his prognostication, but if 247 really wants to present itself as some kind of compiler of guru predictions there needs to be some allowance made for the guys who say one thing for months and months and then change their tune at the last minute.

    -Jason "Adam is not nearly alone in changing his pick, he is merely the person I pointed out because we all know him here" Evans
    Adam has changed his pick again -- he's on Ohio State now.

    The majority of gurus are now picking Ohio State (45%), over Indiana (34%), and UNLV (21%).

    Good luck in figuring out where this kid is going!!

    -Jason "Yup, I just did that" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  13. #13
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    There could easily be a market for making recruiting predictions. Like the Intrade concept. If the market were large enough to be efficient, it would reflect daily the prognostications of those willing to put some jack behind their predictions. The idea being that people don't invest jack in a prediction unless they have some basis.

    But how to control insider trading by recruits, family and hangers on? Or maybe we don't care, since their trading would move the line closer to an accurate outcome.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, since I posted that note at 10pm last night, the tide seems to have turned again. It was all Indiana for many months. Then, late yesterday we started to see a flurry of Ohio State predictions. And now we are getting more and more UNLV predictions. 247's current crystal ball is 54% Indiana, 31% Ohio State, and 15% UNLV. But, if we look only at predictions made in the past few days, it is 8 Ohio State, 4 UNLV, and 2 Indiana. Of course, it is worth noting that anyone who had picked Indiana weeks or months ago who still thinks that is where he is going would not need to change/update their prediction.

    It is also worth noting that folks can change earlier predictions and we don't know what they predicted earlier. Our good friend Adam Rowe had been one of the over-the-summer Indiana predictors. Well, last night he changed his pick to UNLV. I've got no problem with Adam updating his prognostication, but if 247 really wants to present itself as some kind of compiler of guru predictions there needs to be some allowance made for the guys who say one thing for months and months and then change their tune at the last minute.

    -Jason "Adam is not nearly alone in changing his pick, he is merely the person I pointed out because we all know him here" Evans
    First, I'm with you that this is pretty fun to track. I'm interested to see where he ends up choosing and what the distribution looks like across the gurus.

    Second, the part I bolded is super easy to address just by evaluating analysts on a day count basis. Change your tune to the correct school on the day of his announcement? Then you only get 1/500 correct on Okonoboh. That stinks - but it's better than leaving the wrong guess and getting a big fat 0. Analyst have Okonoboh correct since May? 145/500. Not bad. Way better than the schmo who changed at the last second.

    Dukedoc brought up copycat predictors. Well, bonus points for the first to act, a few less for the second to act, and phase them out until the last to the party gets zip extra points. Or you could make the predictions blind for the first X amount of days - then they go public and they can have a huge ESPN special to unveil them. We're sort of at that point anyway, aren't we?

    - Chillin

  15. #15
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    Well, I don't know how you put stock in a prediction that's been correct all the way through as opposed to one that is only correct at the time of the announcement, since that moment is all that really matters. As Nate Silver taught us during the elections, the guess comes with a certain degree of confidence, and that confidence is only 100% when its over.

    Speaking of which, I hope Silver tackles this whole recruit guessing game on 538 someday. Then we could just put it all to rest. You know, since he's a witch and whatnot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    First, I'm with you that this is pretty fun to track. I'm interested to see where he ends up choosing and what the distribution looks like across the gurus.

    Second, the part I bolded is super easy to address just by evaluating analysts on a day count basis. Change your tune to the correct school on the day of his announcement? Then you only get 1/500 correct on Okonoboh. That stinks - but it's better than leaving the wrong guess and getting a big fat 0. Analyst have Okonoboh correct since May? 145/500. Not bad. Way better than the schmo who changed at the last second.
    A couple problems with your idea...

    First of all, there is a HUGE incentive for folks to guess wildly as far out as they can just in case they get lucky and score the 200, 300, or even 500 day points. After all, someone who guesses right once on a kid with 400 days to go and then misses on a dozen other kids would get more points than the guy who nails 12-for-12 but makes each of those predictions with just a week or two until the player makes his decision.

    I think we should value accuracy above all else. Way more important to be right than to make a slightly educated guess months in advance.

    Here is what I wold do -- every prediction counts. So, if you guess Indiana and the kid goes to OSU, you are 0-for-1 (0%). If you guess Indiana and then change that pick to OSU and the kid goes to OSU, then you are 1-for-2 (50%). Guess Indiana and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid goes to UNLV and you are just 1-for-3 (33%). This would discourage the pickers from making wild guesses months in advance and then changing your mind at the last minute without any penalty.

    Also, to be clear, if you pick IU and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid picks OSU, you don't get anything right. That would be an 0-for-3 (0%). Your final pick is the only one that can be registered as correct.

    We could build in bonuses for a correct pick made at least 1 week prior to commitment and another for a pick made a month early and one more for a pick made at least 3 months before commitment, so there would be some reason to make your picks known early in the process. I think that works better than your 500 point plan.

    Another thought just occurred to me -- we could do your 500 point system, but each day a pick was incorrect would be minus 1/500th and each day it was correct would be worth plus 1/500th. So, if you went with Indiana as your choice for 3 months (90 days) and then switched to OSU two days before the kid committed to OSU, your score for that recruit would be (+2 - 90 = -88). What do you think of that?

    -Jason "I comment on all this like we could even begin to have an impact on this... ha!" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    A couple problems with your idea...

    First of all, there is a HUGE incentive for folks to guess wildly as far out as they can just in case they get lucky and score the 200, 300, or even 500 day points. After all, someone who guesses right once on a kid with 400 days to go and then misses on a dozen other kids would get more points than the guy who nails 12-for-12 but makes each of those predictions with just a week or two until the player makes his decision.

    I think we should value accuracy above all else. Way more important to be right than to make a slightly educated guess months in advance.

    Here is what I wold do -- every prediction counts. So, if you guess Indiana and the kid goes to OSU, you are 0-for-1 (0%). If you guess Indiana and then change that pick to OSU and the kid goes to OSU, then you are 1-for-2 (50%). Guess Indiana and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid goes to UNLV and you are just 1-for-3 (33%). This would discourage the pickers from making wild guesses months in advance and then changing your mind at the last minute without any penalty.

    Also, to be clear, if you pick IU and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid picks OSU, you don't get anything right. That would be an 0-for-3 (0%). Your final pick is the only one that can be registered as correct.

    We could build in bonuses for a correct pick made at least 1 week prior to commitment and another for a pick made a month early and one more for a pick made at least 3 months before commitment, so there would be some reason to make your picks known early in the process. I think that works better than your 500 point plan.

    Another thought just occurred to me -- we could do your 500 point system, but each day a pick was incorrect would be minus 1/500th and each day it was correct would be worth plus 1/500th. So, if you went with Indiana as your choice for 3 months (90 days) and then switched to OSU two days before the kid committed to OSU, your score for that recruit would be (+2 - 90 = -88). What do you think of that?

    -Jason "I comment on all this like we could even begin to have an impact on this... ha!" Evans
    Oh, absolutely. Didn't mean to imply it was my way or the highway. Just that the issues raised by various posters can be troubleshot without a ton of headache. Not to mention investment sites already have metrics like this.

    At first glance I like your system better than mine. Granted, I'm at work and not trying hard to troubleshoot/stress the scheme. I don't particularly like the tweak you made to mine because it introduces the concept of negative numbers, which I guess would be fine if kept behind the scenes - but as far as in the public eye, I wouldn't want to have analysts rated negatively. I favor some sort of scale like 0-10 or 0-100, or tiers, or something like that.

    The only negative to your system that popped into my head is that if an analyst is tossed between two schools, for example, and is legitimately sold that it's either school A or school B and chooses A. But the recruit goes B. He gets a big, fat 0. Maybe that's fine. But in my system at least he could structure his choice so as to maximize his credibility. Granted, this would look weird to the public if he's flip-flopping constantly. Maybe get docked a penalty for every pick change?

    Still leaning toward your idea.

    - Chillin

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    A couple problems with your idea...

    First of all, there is a HUGE incentive for folks to guess wildly as far out as they can just in case they get lucky and score the 200, 300, or even 500 day points. After all, someone who guesses right once on a kid with 400 days to go and then misses on a dozen other kids would get more points than the guy who nails 12-for-12 but makes each of those predictions with just a week or two until the player makes his decision.

    I think we should value accuracy above all else. Way more important to be right than to make a slightly educated guess months in advance.

    Here is what I wold do -- every prediction counts. So, if you guess Indiana and the kid goes to OSU, you are 0-for-1 (0%). If you guess Indiana and then change that pick to OSU and the kid goes to OSU, then you are 1-for-2 (50%). Guess Indiana and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid goes to UNLV and you are just 1-for-3 (33%). This would discourage the pickers from making wild guesses months in advance and then changing your mind at the last minute without any penalty.

    Also, to be clear, if you pick IU and then OSU and then UNLV and the kid picks OSU, you don't get anything right. That would be an 0-for-3 (0%). Your final pick is the only one that can be registered as correct.

    We could build in bonuses for a correct pick made at least 1 week prior to commitment and another for a pick made a month early and one more for a pick made at least 3 months before commitment, so there would be some reason to make your picks known early in the process. I think that works better than your 500 point plan.

    Another thought just occurred to me -- we could do your 500 point system, but each day a pick was incorrect would be minus 1/500th and each day it was correct would be worth plus 1/500th. So, if you went with Indiana as your choice for 3 months (90 days) and then switched to OSU two days before the kid committed to OSU, your score for that recruit would be (+2 - 90 = -88). What do you think of that?

    -Jason "I comment on all this like we could even begin to have an impact on this... ha!" Evans
    Great points, I was thinking this too but you beat me to it. You would have to devise the scoring system so that incorrect final answers generated "0" points, regardless of how many days prior the pick was correct. Otherwise, people could easily game the system to smooth out their points for the likely choices. In other words, recruits typically have a list of five or six schools at most, and recruiting experts (and even non-experts) generally know that only three or four of those schools at most are real contenders (i.e. Harrison Barnes had Iowa St. on his final list but did anyone really think he would go there?). So anyone participating in the prognostication could simply rotate their pick each week among three schools, for instance, so that the points are roughly even among the three likely contenders. That way, as you say, someone with no insider knowledge who got the final pick wrong could easily score higher than someone with insider knowledge who got the pick right but for less days.

    On that point, it seems to me that getting a pick correct should, ideally, serve as a proxy for having strong access and quality information (access to college coaches and assistant coaches and staff; access to AAU coaches and staff; access to high school coaches and staff; and access to family members, friends, and the recruits themselves), rather than a proxy for expert judgment of clues and information. After all, there only so many ways one can interpret a quote or tweet from a recruit that's public (judgment of available public information doesn't really play into it) . One would assume, then, that the recruiting experts with the best access and information would generally score higher than those with less access and information. So you would want to devise the scoring system so that it aligns high scores to those with the best access and information, which ideally should be reflected in accurate picks. But at the same time you need to "weed out" people who guess right or mimic the experts with real information and change their picks at the last minute. That's the challenge, and I'm not sure how to do that without, as another poster suggested, making it blind among the experts.

    EDIT: Perhaps you could use the 500 point system but only give points to those who get it right with the final pick? Otherwise, it's "0". This would seem to reward those with the best information while not rewarding the last minute mimics. Of course, the mimics could still game the system, I guess, by smoothing out their picks as discussed above, and then mimicking the experts at the last minute, so that they still score higher. In which case, you'd have to utilize your negative scoring to penalize those gaming the system.
    Last edited by Philadukie; 10-03-2013 at 01:47 PM.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    247 Sports has 23 predictions of where he is going to go. 22 of them, including our own Adam Rowe, say Indiana is getting him. Many of the predictions date back to mid-summer so Indiana has been the perceived leader for quite a while. It is worth noting that one person picked Ohio State and made that prediction just a couple days ago. We shall see!

    -Jason "kinda cool -- I'm loving 247 Sports prediction feature!" Evans
    Adam Rowe has now changed his prediction to UNLV...hmmmm. It seems like there is a lot of movement in the last day of predictions making somebody's % accurate rate perhaps a bit flawed. If somebody chooses the wrong school for the five months leading up to it, but then changes it the day of to the correct one, he/she gets credit for a correct prediction. (Of course, the inverse is true as well.) I guess that's why people had suggested accuracy based on days out, etc. They're probably not collecting that historical data, though, and just store the last prediction. But that would be nice. Either way, a cool feature.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Adam Rowe has now changed his prediction to UNLV...hmmmm. It seems like there is a lot of movement in the last day of predictions making somebody's % accurate rate perhaps a bit flawed. If somebody chooses the wrong school for the five months leading up to it, but then changes it the day of to the correct one, he/she gets credit for a correct prediction. (Of course, the inverse is true as well.) I guess that's why people had suggested accuracy based on days out, etc. They're probably not collecting that historical data, though, and just store the last prediction. But that would be nice. Either way, a cool feature.
    It's not a good sign for Indiana when the Indiana Insider selects Ohio State. This is turning into a nail biter for the fans of these schools.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

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