FB: Pittsburgh 58, Duke 55

[sagegrouse]

I'm with you on this one. I ALWAYS get a flu shot. I also maintain a current Pneumonia inoculation. I have had serious cases of pneumonia on a couple of occasions and am very careful about respiratory related illness. Not a guarantee, not for everyone but, IMO, is a very worthwhile inoculation.

Moreover, the doctors take one look at me and give me a double dose.

sage

[jimsumner]

I get flu shots and I don't get the flu.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

[Bob Green]

I'm going to keep my comments relatively short this week as I believe this game will be decided by a few factors:

1. Performance on 3rd down: the team absolutely must perform better on 3rd down, on both sides of the ball, than we did last week against Georgia Tech when we were 3-14 on offense but allowed GT to convert 11-17.

To beat Pittsburgh, we need 3rd down numbers in the neighborhood of those achieved in the Memphis game where Duke was 10-18 while holding Memphis to 2-13.

The defense needs to finish sets and get off the field and the offense needs to string together long, points producing drives.

2. Pressuring the quarterback: Pitt has perhaps the most talented receiver in the ACC in 6'4" Devin Street, plus a quality receiver lined up opposite him in freshman Tyler Boyd. The Panthers also have talent at the tight end position. If quarterback Tom Savage is able to sit in the pocket, go through his progressions and select his receiver, he will pick our secondary apart. The guys on the defensive line must make him feel the heat.

3. Balance and versatility on offense: Duke must establish both the running and passing game in order to keep Pitt's defense off balance. I expect Pitt will stack the box, focus on shutting down our running game and dare Connette to beat them via the forward pass. This is a game where we will probably have to successfully pass the football in order to open up the running game.

Items two and three are both somewhat a function of item one.

The three things I will be watching closely from my seat in Wallace Wade are 3rd down, pressuring the quarterback, and offensive balance. Pitt quarterback Tom Savage has thrown four interceptions in Pitt's two games so he has proven to be somewhat erratic when hurried.

[Reilly]

... I think Pitt is one of those mid-level teams that Duke needs go beat to be successful (along with Navy, Wake and Virginia). ...

I've been wondering about Pitt's "mid-level" status ... I guess "mid-level" can be quite a large category that captures a lot of teams.

On one hand, Pitt was predicted to finish 5th in the 7-team Coastal division, and they are only a 4-point favorite over Duke (guess that would be 7 on a neutral field; and 10 at Pitt). They also have a string of 6 and 7 win seasons recently. All that seems to fit a 'mid-level' description.

On the other hand, if I counted right and am recalling correctly, per the Scout database, Duke has 51 three-star commits in the past 5 recruiting classes, whereas Pitt had 80 such commits. Pitt has gone to a bowl 5 straight years or something. And I think I read they had the #17 defense nationally last year, and have 7 defensive starters back. Their coach seems good from what little I know of him, and they have a big, strong QB who was highly rated coming out of h.s. and bounced around a bit, and a really good WR. In other words, seems they may have the ingredients to be a notch above the WFUs, Navys, and UVas ...

[Duvall]

In other words, seems they may have the ingredients to be a notch above the WFUs, Navys, and UVas ...

Are WFU and UVa mid-level, though? Think they might be a notch below that.

[matt1]

I have never had a flu shot (except for the swine flu), but I have never gotten the flu. Also, this is a little silly to discuss, as flu shots would have done no good, as this is most likely a stomach bug, as the flu does not spread in September, rather its season is about December to April.

I think that we win tomorrow. We need to realize how important it is to get two wins in the next two weeks. Really, I would like to have bowl eligibility wrapped up before the Virginia Tech game.

[alteran]

http://www.bewellbuzz.com/general/10-reasons-flu-shots-dangerous-flu/
I would be careful on flu shots. I have never had one and only had the flu once.

I don't want to get nasty about it, but that article has a lot of disinformation in it and no documentation.

[TKG]

Gag. Cough. Gag. What is the over-under our first play from scrimmage is a bubble-screen?

GO DUKE!

We will keep Pitt off balance with runs between the tackles! If the bubble screens are going to work the WRs have to hold their blocks for more than one count.

[Reilly]

Are WFU and UVa mid-level, though? Think they might be a notch below that.

I agree and that's sort of my point. Maybe Pitt can be characterized as 'mid-level' but they are a notch above those others sort-of-similarly situated.

Wins the last 5 years (2008-2012) and number of bowl appearances

Navy: 40 wins, 4 bowls
Pitt: 39 wins, 5 bowls
WFU: 27 wins, 2 bowls
UVA: 24 wins, 2 bowls
Duke: 21 wins, 1 bowl

And Pitt would seem to have better athletes than Navy, given recruiting rankings ...

[Olympic Fan]

I've been wondering about Pitt's "mid-level" status ... I guess "mid-level" can be quite a large category that captures a lot of teams.

Pitt has also had three head coaches in the last four years ...

By "mid-level" I mean teams that offer Duke a reasonable tossup opponent -- that includes Pitt, Navy, Virginia, N.C. State and probably Wake (although Wake hasn't played up to its preseason projection).

NCCU, Memphis and Troy are the three teams Duke SHOULD beat. Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech and maybe UNC are the four teams we would have to upset to beat.

Get the three we should beat and add at least three of the five tossup opponents and we're back in a bowl without having to upset anybody.

[davekay1971]

In my limited stint as a Duke athlete, medicine was freely available to even non-scholarship players- things like Sudafed, antibiotics.
I wonder if anyone close to the program can comment on whether or not Duke players get access to flu shots?
It would seem to be a wise approach to include preventative medicine for the team.

It's a little early for the flu and flu shot at this point. My wife went ahead and got hers last week at a Walgreens, so they are available, but my medical group hasn't even received them yet to give at clinics or in the hospital. So, even if the team routinely gets the shot, they may not have gotten it yet.

[TKG]

Does anyone know if parking at the Washington Duke for a football game is allowed?

[Scorp4me]

If anyone has paid attention to me football posts in the last couple of years, you'll know that I am a fairly optimistic Duke football supporter.

Even so, I was not all that disappointed by last week's loss to Georgia Tech -- I happen to think GT is REALLY good and is the best team we'll play this season (I guess we'll find out more about that tomorrow when UNC visits Atlanta).

On the other hand, I think tomorrow's game with Pitt is vital -- a pivotal game for this season. Win it, and I'd confidently take bets that we return to a bowl. Lose it and I think it's going to a long season.

I still think this is the best Duke team in the Cutcliffe era -- indeed, the best team since at least 1994. But the injuries are quarterback scare me. I know it wasn't all his fault, but I was disappointed how Connette played against the Jackets. For one thing, we didn't seem to do anything to play to his strengths -- no rollouts and surprisingly little read option. Were the coaches trying to protect their last experienced QB? I can understand that, but I don't think Duke can win that way.

I'm also concerned by the illness flowing through the team. I still remember how a preseason battle with Swine Flu left the 2009 team weakened for the opener. And I was a kid in 1965 when a widespread bout of food poisoning laid a very good Duke team low and led to a 3-2 home loss to Clemson.

But even if a loss is caused by bad luck or the QB injuries, it is what it is -- and I think Pitt is one of those mid-level teams that Duke needs go beat to be successful (along with Navy, Wake and Virginia). A year ago, Duke beat everybody it should have beaten and one team it probably shouldn't have (UNC). That's the kind of opportunism Duke needs at this stage of the program.

That kind of logical and reasoned response has no place on a message board. I also agree with it completely

[riverside6]

Live stats and play analysis for Duke/Pitt

http://www.scacchoops.com/FB_ViewHDGame.asp?hGame=3059

[arnie]

It's a little early for the flu and flu shot at this point. My wife went ahead and got hers last week at a Walgreens, so they are available, but my medical group hasn't even received them yet to give at clinics or in the hospital. So, even if the team routinely gets the shot, they may not have gotten it yet.

Does the entire defense have the flue?

[Mabdul Doobakus]

Duke just looks physically outmatched upfront on defense. Pittsburgh went right down the field on that first drive, effortlessly picking up chunks of yards on runs straight up the middle. That guy Conner seems like a load, carrying multiple Duke defenders with him for yards at a time.

[arnie]

Duke just looks physically outmatched upfront on defense. Pittsburgh went right down the field on that first drive, effortlessly picking up chunks of yards on runs straight up the middle. That guy Conner seems like a load, carrying multiple Duke defenders with him for yards at a time.

I think the Connette experiment has come to an end. Those 2 int's really ugly.

[bbosbbos]

Very sad

[Mabdul Doobakus]

I think the Connette experiment has come to an end. Those 2 int's really ugly.

I don't know who else we have to turn to. Best thing to do might be to just run the option every play. Connette's had success running the ball, at least. I mean 0-3 passing with 2 INTs so far...

We can't tackle. This looks more like the Duke of my college years (2000-2004). We look outmatched athletically (at least on defense), and we're not making any plays even when we're in place to do so...this last kickoff being just the latest example.

[arnie]

I think the Connette experiment has come to an end. Those 2 int's really ugly.

And maybe not! Running the ball has to be the emphasis.