Alex Murphy's Impact

[adukeforduke]

Most of the debate on this board is currently about the starting C for next season.

It seems to me Alex Murphy is largely being ignored as a potential contributor for next years team. I was very disappointed Murphy didnt see more action with last year's team. It seemed to me a lack of confidence was his biggest weakness. I hope for major improvement this off-season and he could develop into a true weapon off the bench.

I agree with those who want to see Amile as the starting C. However, this lineup could be very effective for significant stretches during a game (10-15 minutes):
Quinn
Sheed
Hood
Murphy
Parker

Murphy would play either the 3 or 4 and Parker would play the 5.
Any thoughts??

[OldPhiKap]

Most of the debate on this board is currently about the starting C for next season.

It seems to me Alex Murphy is largely being ignored as a potential contributor for next years team. I was very disappointed Murphy didnt see more action with last year's team. It seemed to me a lack of confidence was his biggest weakness. I hope for major improvement this off-season and he could develop into a true weapon off the bench.

I agree with those who want to see Amile as the starting C. However, this lineup could be very effective for significant stretches during a game (10-15 minutes):
Quinn
Sheed
Hood
Murphy
Parker

Murphy would play either the 3 or 4 and Parker would play the 5.
Any thoughts??

Murphy certainly has a chance to earn floor time this year. That would be a tough team to defend, the question is -- know will would they defend as a team? (Don't know the answer -- but whatever group answered that question best is who will get the most time).

[Newton_14]

Most of the debate on this board is currently about the starting C for next season.

It seems to me Alex Murphy is largely being ignored as a potential contributor for next years team. I was very disappointed Murphy didnt see more action with last year's team. It seemed to me a lack of confidence was his biggest weakness. I hope for major improvement this off-season and he could develop into a true weapon off the bench.

I agree with those who want to see Amile as the starting C. However, this lineup could be very effective for significant stretches during a game (10-15 minutes):
Quinn
Sheed
Hood
Murphy
Parker

Murphy would play either the 3 or 4 and Parker would play the 5.
Any thoughts??

I still have high hopes for Murphy. A lot of talent there. The dunk against NC State was a small glimpse of what Murph is capable of. I think confidence and court awareness are two of his biggest weaknesses to date. In small stretches last year (that same State game being one of them) he defended the opposing PF very well inlcuding short stints against CJ Leslie. Still needs to improve a bit with lateral quickness on the wing for defense, and making better decisions with the ball. He can drive and score pretty effectively when attacking the rim.

The biggest problem this year is depth at his position. Hood, Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler can all play the 3 well enough to satisfy K, and Hood, Amile, Josh, and Jabari can all likely play the 4 well enough to satisfy K. That's 4 guys to beat out for time at the 3, and 4 guys to beat out for time at the 4. I definitely think Alex will get more minutes this year than he did last year and will help this team. I don't see him breaking into that 20-25+ mpg range until his Jr season though. I am still counting on 2 very solid/highlevel season's from him in his Jr/Sr seasons. Still believe he has All ACC caliber potential if he can put it all together.

[NSDukeFan]

Most of the debate on this board is currently about the starting C for next season.

It seems to me Alex Murphy is largely being ignored as a potential contributor for next years team. I was very disappointed Murphy didnt see more action with last year's team. It seemed to me a lack of confidence was his biggest weakness. I hope for major improvement this off-season and he could develop into a true weapon off the bench.

I agree with those who want to see Amile as the starting C. However, this lineup could be very effective for significant stretches during a game (10-15 minutes):
Quinn
Sheed
Hood
Murphy
Parker

Murphy would play either the 3 or 4 and Parker would play the 5.
Any thoughts??

I believe you have a lot of company in the Alex Murphy fan club. I am also very hopeful that he will be a meaningful contributor this year. The problem for Alex next year is that he will hopefully have 2 all-ACC forwards starting ahead of him and be competing for minutes with 2 seniors (Andre and Josh) who I also hope have great final years, as well as Amile, Semi, etc. A lot of guys I hope have big years, actually all of them.

[Dukehky]

Murphy really comes off to me like one of those "my time will come" kind of guys. Now while this isn't a debilitating train of thought, it's not something that is going to get you major minutes at Duke. At least he wants to stick around to get his playing him, he's got to go get it. This past year, there really were minutes to go and get when Ryan went down, but he didn't get them. This leads me to believe that he just didn't work as hard as some of the other guys who played ahead of him like Amile and Josh, or that he didn't get time at empty rotations at the 3 where we had to stick Thornton in there. I mean, it wasn't terrible, maybe that's what he needed to learn that just because people go down ahead of you, or guys ahead of you leave, doesn't mean you're absolutely going to get your run in.

He's only a red-shirt sophomore this year, I'm certainly not hitting the panic button or any thing. The kid's just got to go get it. All that being said, the really isn't any excuse for him to not get significantly more minutes this year, I hope, and think that he will.

[Troublemaker]

He's the player with the widest range of possibilities because we've both seen the coaching staff praise him very highly and even start him in some exhibition games and then we've also seen him basically get no playing time during the season. By all accounts, his biggest challenge is confidence in himself so his improvement could be like a light switch. If he starts to believe in himself, it would not be surprising if he becomes a major contributor. But if he can't get over the mental hump, he could get 0 minutes in competitive games again.

[johnb]

...
The biggest problem this year is depth at his position. Hood, Rasheed, Andre, and Tyler can all play the 3 well enough to satisfy K, and Hood, Amile, Josh, and Jabari can all likely play the 4 well enough to satisfy K...

I'm a big fan of Tyler's, but I somehow don't think he'll be getting a lot of PT at the small forward position.

Overall, I'd guess no one really knows who will be getting all of that PT that opened up with graduation. Those of who don't know much beyond second-hand reports and a few minutes of PT can only guess, while the coaching staff is probably not posting their imagined lineup on this board. I'd be curious the extent to which they know such things before practice starts. For example, are the coaches currently quite confident as to who will average 20 minutes per game and who will barely get off the bench? They would never reveal such expectations, and I'm sure they get surprised now and again, but surely they have their internal talent assessment that simply doesn't (and shouldn't) get articulated.

[Atldukie79]

I believe Alex has a bright future in front of him. He may shine his junior and senior year...if not this year. As pointed out, PT this year may be challenging based on the volume of top notch perimeter players. It has also been mentioned that confidence may be a problem and I agree. That likely hurt his 3 pt shooting which, as I recall, was not high. He seemed lost on the court several times. I recall some fast breaks where he was doubling a man while leaving another player free.

But the thing that worried me the most was a trait I noticed with Andre Dawkins the previous year. All too often, when isolated one on one with a perimeter player, Murphy seemd slow to react to a penetration move. Is it lateral quickness? Or is it reaction time. I always thought that was Dawkinn's weakness too. You might be slow or quick, but if you don't react to the move, it doesn't matter which you were.

Anyway, I am looking at both of these guys to see if they can stay in front of their man while on D!

[Newton_14]

I'm a big fan of Tyler's, but I somehow don't think he'll be getting a lot of PT at the small forward position.

Overall, I'd guess no one really knows who will be getting all of that PT that opened up with graduation. Those of who don't know much beyond second-hand reports and a few minutes of PT can only guess, while the coaching staff is probably not posting their imagined lineup on this board. I'd be curious the extent to which they know such things before practice starts. For example, are the coaches currently quite confident as to who will average 20 minutes per game and who will barely get off the bench? They would never reveal such expectations, and I'm sure they get surprised now and again, but surely they have their internal talent assessment that simply doesn't (and shouldn't) get articulated.

On the first point, Tyler has played SF or WF if you prefer (meaning someone else was playing PG and SG and Tyler was the other wing) quite a lot over the past two seasons and performed just fine on defense. Two years ago we saw Tyler on the floor with Austin and Seth with Seth running the point. This year we saw lineups with Quinn, Seth, and Tyler many times as well. Doesn't mean it will happen this coming year but history has shown K is very comfortable playing Tyler at SF. Tyler will get his minutes one way or the other. Some as the backup PG when Quinn is sitting, and some on the wing. I suspect it will be a mix similar to the last couple of years.

As for the second point about minutes, I did not really grasp your point. The coaching staff certainly has their plans for lineups and rotations, but it will all come down to how guys develop over the summer and then perform in practice, and finally in games. They certainly don't post on this board or any other board. This board is for our members to discuss how we think such things will play out based on history and our knowledge of the players, how K runs his team's, and our gut feelings based on all data points we have to go on. Not sure why it is a bad thing for posters to post their thoughts on how the lineups and rotations will shake out, but perhaps I totally missed your point or what you were trying to convey there? Apologies if that is the case.. just read to me like you were being critical of people speculating on these things on this board.

[Billy Dat]

Aside from Zoubek's unlikely emergence in the stretch run of his senior year, how many examples are there of guys buried on K's bench in their first few years who became meaningful pieces of the machine? Maybe Melchionni or Dockery? McClure? Granted, there is a red shirt year in there but it just feels like his window is shrinking quickly.

[CDu]

Aside from Zoubek's unlikely emergence in the stretch run of his senior year, how many examples are there of guys buried on K's bench in their first few years who became meaningful pieces of the machine? Maybe Melchionni or Dockery? McClure? Granted, there is a red shirt year in there but it just feels like his window is shrinking quickly.

Alaa Abdelnaby is another example - probably better than McClure (who basically kept the same role for most of his career). But you're right: it's pretty rare for a player to go from two years of being a non-factor to significant contributor. And even Abdelnaby averaged over 5 mpg as a freshman and about 10 mpg as a sophomore.

People have pointed to next year or the year after as the time that Murphy will contribute. But what if Ojeleye is better? What if Hood sticks around? What if we land Justise Winslow and/or Kevon Looney? There is likely to be an elite talent or two on the roster that will make minutes difficult to achieve.

I'm not saying Murphy can't do it. But he's been marginalized on two different teams for which perimeter size was a concern. And over the next year or two, we're likely to be increasing our depth/talent in terms of perimeter size. So he has his work cut out for him.

[Billy Dat]

I'm not saying Murphy can't do it. But he's been marginalized on two different teams for which perimeter size was a concern. And over the next year or two, we're likely to be increasing our depth/talent in terms of perimeter size. So he has his work cut out for him.

I'm with you, I don't think Murphy's incapable, but at some point you become whatever K thinks you are and then that opinion kind of freezes. Look at Marty Pocious - the kid is a STUD on the Lithuania national team and a really solid Euroleague player. Had K unleashed Marty, maybe we would have seen some of that flair. Maybe not. He seems like a good comp for Murphy at this point.

[Kedsy]

Aside from Zoubek's unlikely emergence in the stretch run of his senior year, how many examples are there of guys buried on K's bench in their first few years who became meaningful pieces of the machine? Maybe Melchionni or Dockery? McClure? Granted, there is a red shirt year in there but it just feels like his window is shrinking quickly.

Melchionni for sure. He played just 2.2 and 3.9 mpg his first two years and then 21.7 and 19.9 mpg his final two years. He might be a pretty fair comp for Alex, at least as far as his place in the rotation.

[CDu]

I'm with you, I don't think Murphy's incapable, but at some point you become whatever K thinks you are and then that opinion kind of freezes. Look at Marty Pocious - the kid is a STUD on the Lithuania national team and a really solid Euroleague player. Had K unleashed Marty, maybe we would have seen some of that flair. Maybe not. He seems like a good comp for Murphy at this point.

Pocius is a very interesting name. Like Murphy, Pocius had terrific athleticism. Like Murphy, Pocius had questionable defensive instincts and wasn't a good shooter. Heck, their freshman year stats are almost mirror images as well, with both averaging ~6 mpg and 1.5-2 ppg, shooting just under 50% from the field but struggling from the line and from the perimeter. I wouldn't be surprised if Murphy's career trajectory at Duke looks similar.

Melchionni for sure. He played just 2.2 and 3.9 mpg his first two years and then 21.7 and 19.9 mpg his final two years. He might be a pretty fair comp for Alex, at least as far as his place in the rotation.

It's certainly possible. But I can't help but think that we'll see the same minutes logjam facing Murphy every year. Jefferson is likely to remain ahead of Murphy at PF for their entire time at Duke. Hood is probably ahead this year at SF, and we have a chance to land Winslow next year. And there's always Ojeleye, whose size and athleticism could present a real threat to Murphy's PT as well.

[sagegrouse]

Aside from Zoubek's unlikely emergence in the stretch run of his senior year, how many examples are there of guys buried on K's bench in their first few years who became meaningful pieces of the machine? Maybe Melchionni or Dockery? McClure? Granted, there is a red shirt year in there but it just feels like his window is shrinking quickly.

OK, here's the scoop. I did approximately 4:30 of research (that's minutes and seconds) and came up with the following list of freshman no-shows who made (or did not make) later contributions.

Yes to Melchionni and McClure. No to Dockery: Sean averaged ten MPG as a freshman in 2003.

Yes to Nate James: he played only 41 minutes as a freshman in 1998 and helped lead us to a national championship as a senior.

Yes to Casey Sanders: played only 144 minutes as a freshman. As a senior in 2003, he was 18 MPG, 4.6 PPG and 5.2 RPG.

No to Nick Horvath. He averaged 8.4 MPG as a freshman, incuding a 3-pointer that beat DePaul in OT. He never got much above that for the rest of his career, averaging only 6.4 MPG as a fifth-year senior. (He got a medical redshirt for his sophomore year.)

sagegrouse

[CDu]

Yes to Nate James: he played only 41 minutes as a freshman in 1998 and helped lead us to a national championship as a senior.

Actually, that's not quite correct. James was actually a sophomore in the 1997-1998 season. He played only 6 games during that season before taking a medical redshirt. As a true freshman, he averaged 8.5 mpg in 17 games, with those limited game numbers a result of injury (he didn't start playing until mid-January as a freshman).

As a redshirt sophomore, and finally healthy again, James was stuck behind a redshirt senior Langdon, a junior Carrawell, and a lottery pick freshman Maggette, yet still logged 14.7 mpg. He was then a starter for both his redshirt junior and redshirt senior seasons.

Regardless, I'd say that James is perhaps the high-end of hope while Pocius may be toward the lower end of hope.

[Saratoga2]

I really expect the pace of the game this years team will be significantly higher than that played in the last few years. With that, I exxpect Tyler to be doing a lot of subbing at PG as the guys will be running a lot more. That will also apply to all the players, so I expect we will see more of Murphy and others than would have been expected with a slower paced team that we have gotten used to.

[Kedsy]

It's certainly possible. But I can't help but think that we'll see the same minutes logjam facing Murphy every year. Jefferson is likely to remain ahead of Murphy at PF for their entire time at Duke. Hood is probably ahead this year at SF, and we have a chance to land Winslow next year. And there's always Ojeleye, whose size and athleticism could present a real threat to Murphy's PT as well.

You could be right. With a low-ish rated recruit like Alex (49th in the RSCI after he re-classified), I think playing time at Duke is largely based on who's ahead of you. That said, by the time he's a senior, and possibly junior as well, I suspect Alex has a decent chance of breaking into the rotation. Even Pocius, if he'd stayed for his senior year, would have had a decent chance of breaking into the rotation in 2009-10.

[OldPhiKap]

Aside from Zoubek's unlikely emergence in the stretch run of his senior year, how many examples are there of guys buried on K's bench in their first few years who became meaningful pieces of the machine? Maybe Melchionni or Dockery? McClure? Granted, there is a red shirt year in there but it just feels like his window is shrinking quickly.

If by "meaningful pieces of the machine" you mean part of the 7-8 man prime rotation by the time they were seniors, I think the list is even larger than the names above. I would define "meaningful" even broader than that, personally.

I hope to see more minutes for Alex, too, but he was behind Ryan and Mason down low last year. Jiggy then came in because he led the team in charges. That left minutes to split between Amile and Alex, and the coaches obviously thought that Amile was ahead of Alex.

I am not ready to relegate Alex to some second tier contributor because he had an All-ACC player (Mason) and our most valuable, versatile player (Ryan) as seniors ahead of him. Plus a junior big body who is not afraid to mix it up inside.

As is evident from the other threads on next year's team, everyone can score. What group plays the best defense? That is the key question. Alex's path to playing time is neither complicated nor secret -- become a leader on the defensive end. If he does that, he gets plenty of minutes.

[CDu]

If by "meaningful pieces of the machine" you mean part of the 7-8 man prime rotation by the time they were seniors, I think the list is even larger than the names above. I would define "meaningful" even broader than that, personally.

I hope to see more minutes for Alex, too, but he was behind Ryan and Mason down low last year. Jiggy then came in because he led the team in charges. That left minutes to split between Amile and Alex, and the coaches obviously thought that Amile was ahead of Alex.

I am not ready to relegate Alex to some second tier contributor because he had an All-ACC player (Mason) and our most valuable, versatile player (Ryan) as seniors ahead of him. Plus a junior big body who is not afraid to mix it up inside.

As is evident from the other threads on next year's team, everyone can score. What group plays the best defense? That is the key question. Alex's path to playing time is neither complicated nor secret -- become a leader on the defensive end. If he does that, he gets plenty of minutes.

I don't think it is accurate to say that Murphy was behind Mason or Kelly last year. Based on everything I've read about the kid, he's been viewed as a SF. He was discussed as a possible starter at SF as a freshman before redshirting. He was referenced early and often as a major minutes guy at SF last year. And when he did play, it was usually at SF (aside from some rare instances when he played PF while Kelly was hurt).

Now, it may be that Murphy's best opportunity for PT in the coming years will be at PF or even C. But his game is currently a SF's game, and he's been competing for minutes at SF over the past two years.