A few years ago someone posted some interesting historical facts about Duke's record over their last 10 regular season games and the ACC tournament. The numbers were not surprising in any way. Nonetheless, they helped shed some light in terms of determining how well the team might perform in the NCAAs.
Does anyone remember this? Or have the breakdown?
I do not have the metrics you are looking for, but have a comment on last 10 games.
It hurts ACC teams who last 10 games are almost all against strong competition and helps mid majors who only have 1 or 2 tough games in their last 10. Also rewards teams like Syracuse who play nobody until league play and built up a lot of cupcake wins.
It;s OK to use record last 10 games as long as you also factor in SOS the last 10 games.