MBB: Duke/Creighton, NCAA R32 (Sun 2140 EDT, TBS) Pre/In-Game Thread

[OldPhiKap]

Duke is familiar with games at odd times, this is more a pain to the fans than the players.

[-bdbd]

More rest for Ryan and Seth.

Way to look at that half-FULL glass!!

Ryan matches up best on McDermott, but it is unlikely that he can guard him for more than 25 minutes. Physical conditioning and foul issues might preclude that. Since McDermott is a fairly strong player, we might want to use Josh to spell Ryan on defense. The question then would be who subs in for Mason? Alex's defense is not his strong suit and Amile might still not have the physical presence needed. I think we need Rasheed to guard on the perimeter. It will be interesting to see.

Yes, clearly the big D assignment is RK on McD. I expect Josh to be the primary relief on that assignment, as RK will wear down, plus fouls. It IS possible for us to play just a three-man rotation up front, as Josh can also spell MP2 up front as well, when HE has to come out. (Not like MP2 and RK HAVE to come out at the same time, plus Creighton's 2 bigs don't play 40 minutes apiece.) When they have Wragge and Dingman in off the bench it would be possible, at least, for Rasheed to draw those D assignments primarily, as they both seem to be primarily perimeter threats, though you could easily see Amile or Murphy in some against McD or the bench guys. Heck, don't rule out MP3 bodying up on Echinique to absorb some pounding and some fouls.

Breakdown of Creighton stats:

Sagarin: 17 -- KenPom: 17 -- Record: 28-7 (13-5 in MVC)

Good Wins: Wisconsin*, Cincinnati*, @ California, Akron (*-Neutral Site)
Bad Losses: @ Drake, @ Northern Iowa, @ Illinois State, @ Indiana State

Starting lineup:
C-Greg Echenique, SR (6'9, 260): 9.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 0.4 APG, 1.7 BPG, .658 FG%, .645 FT%
F-Doug McDermott, JR (6'8, 225): 23.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, .561 FG%, .497 3P%, .860 FT%
G-Grant Gibbs, SR (6'5, 210): 8.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.9 APG, 1.0 SPG, .532 FG%, .404 3P%, .757 FT%
G-Jahenns Manigat, JR (6'1, 175): 6.1 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.1 APG, .425 FG%, .380 3P%, .741 FT%
G-Austin Chatman, SO (6'0, 185): 7.4 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 4.3 APG, .401 FG%, .440 3P%, .804 FT%
Bench:
F-Ethan Wragge, JR (6'7, 225): 7.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 0.4 APG, .436 FG%, .435 3P%, .935 FT%
G-Avery Dingman, SO (6'6, 205): 3.9 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 0.6 APG, .411 FG%, .407 3P%, .750 FT%

Defense Efficiency: #77
Offensive Efficiency: #7
3-Point %: #2
3-Point% Defense: #55
Free Throw Rate: #238
Free Throw Rate D: #10
TO %: #111
TO % D: #326

[dukefan10]

I’m absolutely convinced that as a whole, Duke fans really believe that the NCAA is constantly trying to figure out ways to screw us up. Do you really believe that the 9:40 time slot is some maniacal plan by the NCAA’s evil geniuses? What are the chances that we just so happen to get this time slot? As for time to scout this next opponent, do you really believe that Duke’s coaching staff has absolutely no idea how they are going to play MSU/Memphis if indeed we do make it to the S16? And is Creighton seeded below their abilities? Probably, but so are a slew of other teams! Does the NCAA have it out for their opponents too? We’re going to have to win 6 games against 6 quality opponents to get out of here with the trophy, just like every other team in the tournament. And are we really that down on our team? Is Creighton a good 3pt shooting team? Yes. So is Duke. Is Creighton a good FT shooting team? Yes. So is Duke. Why does every strength that an opponent has cause us to cower in our boots? The fact is, we’re a very good team just like every other team in the tournament. We have our strengths and we have our weaknesses, but we are good! If this team plays with intensity and heart, there are not too many teams that can beat us. Go Duke!

[jipops]

Duke's last two opponents have shot a combined 48.5% from 3. If this statistic is not drastically different tomorrow night, then it will not have mattered when the start time was.

[Cameron]

Duke's last two opponents have shot a combined 48.5% from 3. If this statistic is not drastically different tomorrow night, then it will not have mattered when the start time was.

This. In that scenario, we will get run off the court. Statistically, Creighton is pretty much dead even with us in three-point field goal success rate. Where they have the edge is in the size of their three-point shooters. They are giants compared to us. Creighton's most proficient outside shooters stand 6-8, 6-7, 6-6 and 6-5. Outside of Ryan Kelly, we don't have one player over 6-4 that can shoot the triple -- or guard the triple, more importantly. Our wings are completely outmatched if this game turns into an outside shooting exhibition for Creighton.

I desperately wanted Cincy. They are an erratic team that hoists All-Star game type shots and plays very unsound fundamentally, and inside the Bearcats have no players that are anywhere near as strong as Echenique. Instead, we have been assigned a team that starts five Dale Ellises. ----.

[simmias]

Duke opened as a 4 points favorite with the over/under set at 141 so Vegas is looking for a score in the neighborhood of 72-69. The early money is on Duke and the over as the consensus spread is now 5 points and the over/under has moved up to 144: 74-70.

Thanks for posting this. I was just looking at the 5-point spread and 90% of public on Duke and it gave me a heart attack. Good to know the line moved - doesn't scream "Vegas trap" as much as I thought.

[roywhite]

Yeah, I'm not worried about the players...I'm more concerned for me! That's not the most enjoyable drive in the world down ol'95 at 1:00am...so I'm counting on being happy...and making my husband drive.

weezie, you're on the scene in Philadelphia?
Good to hear...way to represent!

Not a bad city to wander around in the off time...lots to see and some great places to eat...from sandwiches to fancy dining.

[dukelifer]

This. In that scenario, we will get run off the court. Statistically, Creighton is pretty much dead even with us in three-point field goal success rate. Where they have the edge is in the size of their three-point shooters. They are giants compared to us. Creighton's most proficient outside shooters stand 6-8, 6-7, 6-6 and 6-5. Outside of Ryan Kelly, we don't have one player over 6-4 that can shoot the triple -- or guard the triple, more importantly. Our wings are completely outmatched if this game turns into an outside shooting exhibition for Creighton.

I desperately wanted Cincy. They are an erratic team that hoists All-Star game type shots and plays very unsound fundamentally, and inside the Bearcats have no players that are anywhere near as strong as Echenique. Instead, we have been assigned a team that starts five Dale Ellises. ----.

Duke will need to turn them over. Creighton is vulnerable to a good athletic team that crashes the boards. Duke is not that team and will need to take them out of their comfort zone somehow. If Duke does not crumble - they should be there at the end. Then it is all about execution and Cook using his quickness

[BigZ]

Duke has not lost a game yet when both Mason and Seth play well. As long as that duo has a good game the Devils should be fine.

[NashvilleDevil]

I’m absolutely convinced that as a whole, Duke fans really believe that the NCAA is constantly trying to figure out ways to screw us up. Do you really believe that the 9:40 time slot is some maniacal plan by the NCAA’s evil geniuses? What are the chances that we just so happen to get this time slot? As for time to scout this next opponent, do you really believe that Duke’s coaching staff has absolutely no idea how they are going to play MSU/Memphis if indeed we do make it to the S16? And is Creighton seeded below their abilities? Probably, but so are a slew of other teams! Does the NCAA have it out for their opponents too? We’re going to have to win 6 games against 6 quality opponents to get out of here with the trophy, just like every other team in the tournament. And are we really that down on our team? Is Creighton a good 3pt shooting team? Yes. So is Duke. Is Creighton a good FT shooting team? Yes. So is Duke. Why does every strength that an opponent has cause us to cower in our boots? The fact is, we’re a very good team just like every other team in the tournament. We have our strengths and we have our weaknesses, but we are good! If this team plays with intensity and heart, there are not too many teams that can beat us. Go Duke!

I think many people here are gunshy about predicting Duke tourney wins because of the early exits since 2000 and I also think the 1999 title game plays a part in this worrying about every opponent. It is like the Red Sox fans before 2004, they were always worried about the other show dropping. There is absolutely nothing we can do as fans that will determine the outcome of the game. This team will be ready tomorrow night and I think you see a Duke performance to is reminiscent of what they did earlier this year.

[Dukeblue91]

This should be a good game for our guards especially Rasheed as he should be able to slice and dice against their defense.
This will also help Curry as they are not very big on the wing and at the guard spots, if he keeps shooting great we should be okay.
But my worry is for Curry to have another bad shooting night and for Kelly not picking up the slack.
Cook needs to keep doing what he has been doing of late and early on in the season and be a distributing PG and not looking to score first.
If Duke fires from all cylinders they are hard to beat but this doesn't happen all that often lately.
This should be a great game and it is a great matchup for us and also them.
Go Duke.

[Reilly]

... could easily see Amile ... in some against McD ...

I'd like to see this some. "Amile, you are in your home town, it's prime time in the NCAA tourney, this is the only game on, the whole country is watching, go out and hound the guy some say is the player of the year ..."

[NSDukeFan]

This. In that scenario, we will get run off the court. Statistically, Creighton is pretty much dead even with us in three-point field goal success rate. Where they have the edge is in the size of their three-point shooters. They are giants compared to us. Creighton's most proficient outside shooters stand 6-8, 6-7, 6-6 and 6-5. Outside of Ryan Kelly, we don't have one player over 6-4 that can shoot the triple -- or guard the triple, more importantly. Our wings are completely outmatched if this game turns into an outside shooting exhibition for Creighton.

I desperately wanted Cincy. They are an erratic team that hoists All-Star game type shots and plays very unsound fundamentally, and inside the Bearcats have no players that are anywhere near as strong as Echenique. Instead, we have been assigned a team that starts five Dale Ellises. ----.

I bet you that is the first time that Echenique has been compared to Dale Ellis. I also think it requires a fair bit of imagination to skip 6'11 Ryan Kelly to say that all of Duke's shooters are small. I would consider Ryan fairly significant when looking at the team's 3-point threats.
I think Creighton is a team to worry about as they all are in a one and done tournament. This sounds like a team that could certainly get hot, but hopefully Duke defends well enough to prevent Creighton from getting hot.

[CajunDevil]

Seriously, guys... this board has become a bunch of whining, crying chicken littles. We have a great shot to go to Sweet 16 tomorrow, in fact, it would be a HUGE upset for us not to make it. We match up incredibly well - no great penetrating point guard, no athletic wings, a plodding 6'9" big man and a slow-footed 4 (great shooter and highly skilled - but slow). This is a GREAT matchup for us, especially considering we could have faced Cincy which would've been troublesome - given their athleticism.

Regardless, please enjoy this team and stop worrying...

[roywhite]

Seriously, guys... this board has become a bunch of whining, crying chicken littles. We have a great shot to go to Sweet 16 tomorrow, in fact, it would be a HUGE upset for us not to make it. We match up incredibly well - no great penetrating point guard, no athletic wings, a plodding 6'9" big man and a slow-footed 4 (great shooter and highly skilled - but slow). This is a GREAT matchup for us, especially considering we could have faced Cincy which would've been troublesome - given their athleticism.

Regardless, please enjoy this team and stop worrying...

One prediction here...should Duke win, even before the end of the game, we'll see a post to the effect of "we'll never beat Michigan State playing like this".

[dukelifer]

Seriously, guys... this board has become a bunch of whining, crying chicken littles. We have a great shot to go to Sweet 16 tomorrow, in fact, it would be a HUGE upset for us not to make it. We match up incredibly well - no great penetrating point guard, no athletic wings, a plodding 6'9" big man and a slow-footed 4 (great shooter and highly skilled - but slow). This is a GREAT matchup for us, especially considering we could have faced Cincy which would've been troublesome - given their athleticism.

Regardless, please enjoy this team and stop worrying...

Makes you wonder how Creighton has won any games this year. No athletes and a slow footed, plodding 4. Somehow I think they understand how to make the sum better than the parts. Duke has to disrupt them. If Duke's D was more consistent and disruptive - I would feel much better. Duke's D has lacked something since Kelly went down - and they need to bring it tomorrow.

[NashvilleDevil]

One prediction here...should Duke win, even before the end of the game, we'll see a post to the effect of "we'll never beat Michigan State playing like this".

We will see a post like that before the first TV timeout.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My turn to whine about NCAA scheduling in general... how is it possible that it is 2:20pm on Saturday of the first weekend of the tournament, and there are NO live games at the moment? And yet, Duke is playing tomorrow at almost 10pm?

This disappoints me.

To clarify, I'm just annoyed because I'd prefer not to stay up that late to watch, not because I think it will have any unfair or biased effect on Duke.

Go Duke!

[arnie]

Seriously, guys... this board has become a bunch of whining, crying chicken littles. We have a great shot to go to Sweet 16 tomorrow, in fact, it would be a HUGE upset for us not to make it. We match up incredibly well - no great penetrating point guard, no athletic wings, a plodding 6'9" big man and a slow-footed 4 (great shooter and highly skilled - but slow). This is a GREAT matchup for us, especially considering we could have faced Cincy which would've been troublesome - given their athleticism.

Regardless, please enjoy this team and stop worrying...

Completely disagree with the above, but certainly hope I'm wrong. If I had to bet the game, I'd bet on Creighton - see it as a tossup with very slight advantage their way. We are not a very good defensive team now and aren't fast breaking well at all. We have to play better 3-point defense. Call it chicken little; but that's how I see it.

[Dukeface88]

Makes you wonder how Creighton has won any games this year. No athletes and a slow footed, plodding 4. Somehow I think they understand how to make the sum better than the parts. Duke has to disrupt them. If Duke's D was more consistent and disruptive - I would feel much better.

Hmm, let's try something:

Makes you wonder how Duke has won any games this year. No athletes and a slow footed, plodding 4. Somehow I think they understand how to make the sum better than the parts. Creighton has to disrupt them. If Creighton's D was more consistent and disruptive - I would feel much better.

Yep, still works.