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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Frobisher View Post
    Ha.
    Seriously, though, doesn't it seem like there have been many teams in the past who have had that scare game the first weekend, get it out of their system, and then start winning handily for a few rounds? I'd say that's more likely here than Gonzaga losing on Saturday.
    I thought DBR had some stat where it was the other way around. A close first game usually signaled an early exit.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Victory Margins in Rounds of 64 and 32? We Have Data!

    Quote Originally Posted by sporthenry View Post
    I thought DBR had some stat where it was the other way around. A close first game usually signaled an early exit.
    In the 12 Sweet Sixteens games since 1998, Duke has five wins and seven losses.

    For the wins the average winning margin in the rounds of 64 and 32 was 28.7 points (36.8, 20.6).

    For the losses the average winning margin was 11.3 points less: 17.4 points (25.3, 9.4).

    Based on suggestive, although maybe not statistically significant, data, victory margin is linked to success.

    I'll now look at correlation. The correlation coefficient between the victory margin in the Sweet Sixteen (positive or negative) with the sum of the victory margins in the rounds of 64 and 32 is a very healthy +0.71.

    sagegrouse

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Frobisher View Post
    Ha.
    Seriously, though, doesn't it seem like there have been many teams in the past who have had that scare game the first weekend, get it out of their system, and then start winning handily for a few rounds? I'd say that's more likely here than Gonzaga losing on Saturday.

    Hated that Davidson loss. Prayer threes and one bad turnover erased 38 minutes of winning ball. The Marquette players even tried to grab a foul before the pass, but whiffed on it...had the foul been called, more than likely that's game over.
    In 06, UConn was down 10 to Albany with 10 to play. Made Elite 8.

    Not worried about the Zags.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by sporthenry View Post
    I thought DBR had some stat where it was the other way around. A close first game usually signaled an early exit.
    Anecdotally this has happened on occasion. Florida hit a last second shot to win back in 2001 in the first game and then went all he way through to the final before losing to msu. The winning shot came vs ? Some team named Butler

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    In 06, UConn was down 10 to Albany with 10 to play. Made Elite 8.

    Not worried about the Zags.
    Just looking back. In the last 10 or so years, the only other 1 seed to win single digits was last year's Syracuse team who went to the E8. But 2 seeds like Villnova against RMU or Duke against Belmont who had similar single digit wins ended up losing in the next round.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    Anecdotally this has happened on occasion. Florida hit a last second shot to win back in 2001 in the first game and then went all he way through to the final before losing to msu. The winning shot came vs ? Some team named Butler
    They were a 5 seed though and playing a 12 seed which I would argue is much different than a 15/16 seed.

  7. #27

    Amaker v. Alford

    26 years, 1 day ago:

    http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketba...ameid=19870320

    Tonight's game pretty close, too.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    In 06, UConn was down 10 to Albany with 10 to play. Made Elite 8.

    Not worried about the Zags.
    True, but something like 20 of the last 24 champs have won their 1st 2 games by at least double digits. I looked it up last year but too tired to do so now at the moment.

    Stats like this don't really mean anything as far as predictive value, but interesting nonetheless.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
    Florida hit a last second shot to win back in 2001 in the first game and then went all he way through to the final before losing to msu.
    Wait.

    What?

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    SoCal

    VCU

    Is Akron that bad or are they that good? Dear gods above, that looked like a 1 beating up a 16!

    Enjoying the Harvard/NM game. When NM went up (just now), I get the feeling that Harvard NEEDS to keep the lead. Not sure why.

    Go Devils! Have to work through the game, but as someone mentioned, I have PTSD from last year, so I'll be a lot less stressed after tomorrow.

    Side note: Wife bought me a 39" Sharp Aquos for the man-cave -- AWESOME!

  11. Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    Rather than having all of these inside each thread...thought we could talk about all the games going on today across all the regions.

    Some thoughts:

    Michigan State is...Michigan State. Big guys down low and guards that can give them the ball. It's amazing how all of their teams just seem the same with different people. Valpo got abused on the boards, but boy did they miss a ton of wide open shots. In one stretch they were down 14, and got intentionally fouled with just over 6 minutes left. The guy missed both free throws then they threw up a brick, then Michigan State missed, then Valpo threw up another brick. That was the game right there. Was also surprised that Valpo just seemed content to let the clock run out at the end - say the last 4 minutes instead of fouling and putting Michigan State on the line...and yet they were still playing like they were trying to win on offense. Very odd.

    St. Louis looks great. This is just confirming that our bracket is by far the hardest (in my opinion).

    The Big East is not having a good start with Pittsburgh getting embarrased. I think I might have taken the bait and actually picked them to beat Gonzaga in one of my brackets. Boy was that a dumb pick.

    Go Davidson!!!! (yeah, I know, it's early)


    Point of process...

    If we're going to have an aggregate thread, then what's the individual region discussion threads for? Doesn't it further fragment the conversation?

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    Wait.

    What?
    He meant in 2000, when Florida knocked Duke out in the S16, they had a 1 point win over Butler.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by sporthenry View Post
    He meant in 2000, when Florida knocked Duke out in the S16, they had a 1 point win over Butler.
    Ah, yes. Forgot about that Florida team. Now I wish I hadn't asked.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by chaosmage View Post
    Is Akron that bad or are they that good? Dear gods above, that looked like a 1 beating up a 16!
    Akron was missing two starters due to the flu, and one reserve from a back injury incurred in warmups. Throw that on top of their all-conference PG who was suspended for allegedly dealing drugs a couple weeks ago. A #16 seed would have beaten them pretty badly tonight.

  15. #35
    Those Harvard dorks just ruined my bracket.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    Point of process...

    If we're going to have an aggregate thread, then what's the individual region discussion threads for? Doesn't it further fragment the conversation?
    Not a moderator, but the aggregate thread for Thursday worked because anyone who wants to comment on Akron/VCU shouldn't be bothered to figure out what region that is.

    I imagine that the region threads continue to be useful in evaluating matchups for the next known round, and the West thread will be primed for Selection Committee conspiracy theories as the results lack predictable form. (My way of suggesting that Ohio State, Kansas State, and Wisconsin might all be gone by this weekend.)

  17. Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Not a moderator, but the aggregate thread for Thursday worked because anyone who wants to comment on Akron/VCU shouldn't be bothered to figure out what region that is.

    I imagine that the region threads continue to be useful in evaluating matchups for the next known round, and the West thread will be primed for Selection Committee conspiracy theories as the results lack predictable form. (My way of suggesting that Ohio State, Kansas State, and Wisconsin might all be gone by this weekend.)

    I hear what you're saying, but the other conclusion is that those regional threads are obsolete with this one around. Now I'm not sure where to post my thoughts on the Arizona-Belmont game...here or in the West regional thread?

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    In 06, UConn was down 10 to Albany with 10 to play. Made Elite 8.

    Not worried about the Zags.
    I'm worried about the Zags (and by worried I mean picking against them) not because of their margin of victory yesterday (although that can't be good for the confidence of Gonzaga fans) but because they really haven't beaten all that many good teams this year. As Jay Bilas would say, what they have shown is the ability to lose to good teams -- beat by Butler and soundly beaten by Illinois. I'm not buying the Gonzaga hype. Could be proven wrong due to the weak bracket...

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