Fantasy Football decision

[elvis14]

Any fantasy football players around here? I have a decision to make in the next 24 hours. In my league we keep 2 players. I have 3 players worth keeping: Frank Gore, Marvin Harrison, Tom Brady. Here the high lights of the scoring system:

QB - 1 pt per completion, 1 pt every 25 yards, 1 pt ever 10 yards rushing, -3 pt for an interception, 6 pts for any TD (rush/pass/rec)
RB/WR - 1 pt for every 10 yards rushing. 1 pt for every 1 yards receiving, 1 point for every reception, 6 points for any TD

With this system, you'll see a good day for a QB net 50+ pts. A good day for a RB/WR is usually 25-35 pts. Generally good RB's are worth more than good WR's because they often catch a few balls themselves.

Player thoughts:
Frank Gore - this was my first year owning Gore. He kicked booty. He's ranked top 5 overall by most sites. He is expected to have a huge year. I'm pretty sure I should keep him.

Tom Brady - a top rated QB. Picks up loads of points some weeks because at times the Pats use short passes instead of a running game. Also the addition of Randy Moss should help (even if Randy doesn't go off, it makes things easier for his other receivers). From a personal level, I've had Brady in 2 of the last 3 seasons and he scores well

Marvin Harrison - Top 3 WR every year, this year shouldn't be any different. He's been one of my keepers for at least 5 years. From a personal level, I love this guy.

So I have the least amount of personal feelings and crap towards Gore but I'd be a fool to let him go. So that means I have to choose between Brady and Harrison. It's a 12 team league. I pick 12th and 13th (yes, I finally won last year). Here are my predictions on what the other teams will keep (note that you can only keep one of each position):

1) Joseph Addai, Mark Bulger (or A. Bolquin)
2) S. Alexander, P. Rivers
3) Farve, Colston
4) Marionn Barber, Tony Romo
5) L. Tomlinson, Terrell Owens
6) Eli Manning, Rudi Johnson
7) Carson Palmer, Willie Parker
8) Hasselbeck, Larry Johnson
9) McNabb, Marony
10) Peyton, Jamal Lewis
11) Stephen Jackson, Torry Holt

Thoughts?

[Channing]

Any fantasy football players around here? I have a decision to make in the next 24 hours. In my league we keep 2 players. I have 3 players worth keeping: Frank Gore, Marvin Harrison, Tom Brady. Here the high lights of the scoring system:

QB - 1 pt per completion, 1 pt every 25 yards, 1 pt ever 10 yards rushing, -3 pt for an interception, 6 pts for any TD (rush/pass/rec)
RB/WR - 1 pt for every 10 yards rushing. 1 pt for every 1 yards receiving, 1 point for every reception, 6 points for any TD

With this system, you'll see a good day for a QB net 50+ pts. A good day for a RB/WR is usually 25-35 pts. Generally good RB's are worth more than good WR's because they often catch a few balls themselves.

Player thoughts:
Frank Gore - this was my first year owning Gore. He kicked booty. He's ranked top 5 overall by most sites. He is expected to have a huge year. I'm pretty sure I should keep him.

Tom Brady - a top rated QB. Picks up loads of points some weeks because at times the Pats use short passes instead of a running game. Also the addition of Randy Moss should help (even if Randy doesn't go off, it makes things easier for his other receivers). From a personal level, I've had Brady in 2 of the last 3 seasons and he scores well

Marvin Harrison - Top 3 WR every year, this year shouldn't be any different. He's been one of my keepers for at least 5 years. From a personal level, I love this guy.

So I have the least amount of personal feelings and crap towards Gore but I'd be a fool to let him go. So that means I have to choose between Brady and Harrison. It's a 12 team league. I pick 12th and 13th (yes, I finally won last year). Here are my predictions on what the other teams will keep (note that you can only keep one of each position):

1) Joseph Addai, Mark Bulger (or A. Bolquin)
2) S. Alexander, P. Rivers
3) Farve, Colston
4) Marionn Barber, Tony Romo
5) L. Tomlinson, Terrell Owens
6) Eli Manning, Rudi Johnson
7) Carson Palmer, Willie Parker
8) Hasselbeck, Larry Johnson
9) McNabb, Marony
10) Peyton, Jamal Lewis
11) Stephen Jackson, Torry Holt

Thoughts?

I cant believe I am saying this, but I would drop Tom Brady. There are only 2, possibly three other teams in that league that would drop a QB. While Brady would be a stud, there are some other QBs that it looks like could be solid in that format - Leinart, Brees, Kitna, Losman and of Course Brady. With any luck you will get Brees, Leinart or Brady.

Just my .02.

[elvis14]

I cant believe I am saying this, but I would drop Tom Brady. There are only 2, possibly three other teams in that league that would drop a QB. While Brady would be a stud, there are some other QBs that it looks like could be solid in that format - Leinart, Brees, Kitna, Losman and of Course Brady. With any luck you will get Brees, Leinart or Brady.

Just my .02.

That's the way I've been leaning "today". I'd love to get Brees or Brady. Last season I had Losman to back up Brady and he had some really good weeks. What I've done in the past when I don't get an obvious stud QB early is to draft a few of them in the mid to late rounds and wait to see if one of them gets hot.

Thanks for the input.

[knights68]

ok, I am in the minority here I am sure, but what is it about Fantasy Football? I do not get it! How does this work exactly? And more importantly,
What is the appeal? Sorry, I just don't get it.
Help me out here!

[Moose]

1 pt for every 1 yards receiving,

Really? I sure hope this is a misprint! Otherwise, this is the craziest league I've ever heard of!


Assuming the rest of the pts in your post are the same and it's 1pt for 10yds receiving, here's the projected stats for the three from ESPN:

Gore: 331.8pts
Brady: 880.2pts (holy crap!)
Harrison: 302.0pts

For comparison, since Steven brought them up -

Brees: 921pts
Leinart: 685.8pts
Kitna: 838.8pts
Losman: 688.8pts

By your calculations, at least 2 teams will need a QB (3, if you drop brady). If that happens, and you are last to pick, you'd be dropping 50 points between Brady and Kitna. There would be noooooo way you'd pick up Brees or Brady again.

If you dropped Harrison instead, you'd just have to pick up another WR that is less than 50 pts worse than Harrison is now. Well, who would that be?

(Fantasy Football Nerd Alert!) Let's calculate!

Now lets look at those 50 pts in terms of RBs or WRs

50pts = 500 yds (rush or receive) = 50 catches = 8-9 TDs (or some combination of the above).

For simplicity sake, lets reduce all of Harrison's stats by 1/3 of the 50 pts needed. If you reduce Harrison's stats by 170yds, 16 catches, and 3 TDs (i.e. 1/3 * 500yds; 1/3 * 50 catches; 1/3 * 9TD) you get this guy:

Yards: 1120; Catches: 79; TDs: 10

You know how many WRs fit this bill??? Tons! Of the one's available in your league: Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy Williams.

Plus, you'd be much more likely to pick up Harrison again with your #12/#13 picks. Both Gore and Brady would be snapped up early in Rd 1.

I'd say keep Brady - he's gone if you don't. Drop Harrison and get a comparable WR in return.


- Moose


PS - I just got paid to do that! I love when the boss is away!

[elvis14]

Moose, that was way too funny! Yes that's a typo, it should be 10 not 1 but thanks for the extra numbers to consider. The problem with dropping Marvin is that year in year out, there aren't comparable receivers. At the same time if I can't get a hot QB it'll be hard to win.

Knights68, here's my take on fantasy football...I'm a Redskins fan and always have been. I really care about what happens to my Redskins. When I play fantasy football, I get a bunch more players that I get to root for and care about. Since I don't get every game on my TV, I get to watch games with teams I normally don't care much about and get to give a darn :-). For me, it just adds more fun to the football season. Of course you won't see me draft a Dallas Cowgirl or NY Giant on my team....it's supposed to be fun, not stupid!

[knights68]

Elvis,
Thanks for the brief explanation. Sounds interesting enough I suppose.
Can a person draft players from years and years ago or do you have to stay within the current season only? interesting, thanks again

[elvis14]

Elvis,
Thanks for the brief explanation. Sounds interesting enough I suppose.
Can a person draft players from years and years ago or do you have to stay within the current season only? interesting, thanks again

You have a draft of current players. In my league we keep 2 guys from the previous season. Most leagues you start from scratch and who gets to pick first is random. Usually the first player taken is the best RB (L. Tomlinson). You draft a team of say 15 players at different positions. Each week you have to pick players to "start". In most leagues you start 2 RB's 2WR's 1 TE, 1QB, 1 Defense. So each week you pick the 7 guys (matching positions) that you think will get you the most points based on what they do (see the first post for an example of how the scoring goes).

[Moose]

Thanks for actually reading those numbers. I run a league with ESPN and the people in my league glaze over when I try and do that...even though I'm trying to help them out.

Now, back to my response. For some reason, I think you missed my point.

The problem with dropping Marvin is that year in year out, there aren't comparable receivers.

I know, that Marvin is one of the best WRs out there. But if you drop Brady, you will be losing at least 50 points of productivity. If you can drop Marvin, and get a WR which will have less than a 50 point drop from Marvin's productivity, you are better off dropping Marvin than dropping Brady.

At the same time if I can't get a hot QB it'll be hard to win.

Again, I think this helps make my point. If you drop Brady, there will be 3 teams looking for QBs in round 1. There are only 2 good QBs left (if your keeper guesses are correct). Therefore you will have to play Kitna or Leinart. Plus, all my "50 point" numbers from the above post come from last year's numbers. Brady had an off year. His WRs are MUCH better this year and I'm not sure how well Maroney will preform as a premier RB. Brady is definitely on his way up. Kitna is old. Leinart is young with no O-line and a renewed focus on the run. Brees is out of your draft range. So is Brady (if you drop him, that is).

Eh, when's your draft anyway. Injuries always play a huge role and could force your hand - making this discussion moot. Or as Joey would say, moo.

- Moose

PS - Yes, I made a Friends reference in a Fantasy Football Discussion. You may pummel me at will.

[acdevil]

I agree with Moose. Drop Harrison.

[Shammrog]

nope - drop the qb. you can always get a good qb (for fantasy purposes) in round 3 or later.

[Moose]

you can always get a good qb (for fantasy purposes) in round 3 or later.

I'd normally agree. In fact, in my league, I waited (some may say too long) until the 5th round and got Romo. ESPN projects him as a top 10 QB and I'm in a 14 team league.

But for the way Elvis's league is set up, QBs are waaaaaay more valuable than either RBs or WRs. They will all go in round 1, unless they've already been kept. Is that how it's been, Elvis?

On retrospect, Kitna may not be that bad. Look at last year's numbers
Completions: 372 (led NFL), Yards: 4208 (4th NFL), TDs: 21 (9th NFL)

Crazy Elvis League Points: 918, not bad!

I'm not sure what he'll do this year, but ESPN has him dropping a bit. Calvin Johnson and Mike Furrey might be great again. Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell might be horrid again. Who knows...


- Moose



PS - Romo better step it up this year! Stop the fumbles! At least he's not as bad as Grossman - did anyone see Mr. Fumble-Fingers play last night? Geez...

[Channing]

I think Leinart's projection is lower than where he will be. With a year under his belt he should be a lot better the entire year this year. He had some monster games, and as a starter the full year with the experience he has he could be really good.

[elvis14]

Thanks for all the feedback, guys. Sorry I have not responded back, I went on vacation without my laptop (the ONLY way to go on vacation!). I decided to keep Harrison (for personal as much as competitive reasons). Even though QB's score a ton of points in my league, one thing to remember is that you want to keep guys that not just score the most points but score the most points compared to the other guys at their positions. To me it was a tough decision because I think I'd be fine with either player. Moose, to answer one of your questions, I am often surprised that guys in my league don't value the QB as much as I do (and as much as I think you would...given the scoring system). Since I draft 12th and 13th, I'm hoping I can pick up a QB with my first pick. My second pick will be the "best player available". As I mentioned, others don't tend to value the QB as much as I and that showed when I got a look at everyone's keepers. I was wrong about quite a few, especially about some QB's. I'll post the keeper list below. To summarize, here is what got kept:

RBs: 11
WRs: 9
TEs: 1 (Gates)
QBs: 3 (Peyton, Rivers, McNabb) the last 2 didn't have any non-QB's worth keeping.

That means of the 11 guys picking before me, 3 have QB's already. That leaves 8 guys drafting with no QB's plus with players such as R. Wayne, R. Bush, B. Westbrook, T. Henry available and QB's such as Brady, Brees, Palmer, Hasselbeck, Bulger, Favre (and Eli and Romo who I won't draft but others might). So I might not be getting Brady back (I'd love to) but I'm betting that I'll get a pretty good starting QB. Knowing what the keepers look like, I'm pretty sure now that I made the right decision. I'm not sure why others in the league don't value the QB as much as I do because I have won lots of games over the years because I've had Brady, Bulger, Warner back in the day, and other hot QB's.

Anyway, here are the list of keepers from my league. The draft is Thursday night. If anyone's intereseted, I'll post the results. Wish me luck, I need to do lots of homework so I can make good decisions in the later rounds!

2007 KEEPERS LIST (in order of draft position)

Fighting Falcons
RB – Laurence Maroney
QB – Donovan McNabb

JetHeads
QB – Peyton Manning
WR – Lee Evans, Roy Williams, or Lavernues Coles

BeachBoys
WR - Marques Colston
RB - Julius Jones

Roswell Invaders
RB - Willis McGahee
WR - Kevin Curtis

Dawg Pound
RB – Joseph Addai
WR – TJ Houshmandzadeh

Frozen Tundra
RB – Larry Johnson
WR – Steve Smith

Capt. I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.slap
RB – Rudi Johnson
TE – Antonio Gates

TBD (formerly 2006 Champs)
RB – Shaun Alexander
QB – Philip Rivers

Gang Green
RB – Willie Parker
WR – Chad Johnson

America’s Team
RB – LaDainian Tomlinson
WR – Terrell Owens

Upper Deckers (formerly Angry Dragons)
RB - Steven Jackson
WR - Torry Holt

Flying Elvises
RB – Frank Gore
WR – Marvin Harrison