Toughest region

[hurleyfor3]

Semantics is a big deal for the NCAA. Just think, because of semantics, Duke actually has a first round bye!

And we're not playing until Friday. So we're guaranteed to be in the Final 48!

[throatybeard]

Oops! That's what I get for posting after watching the UNC-Miami game, sleeping three hours, and then getting back up for Selection Sunday! (I'm in Asia.)

A scrambled brain...

It's easy when you're big in Japan.

Yes, Hurley, the Cal thing is ridiculous.

[uh_no]

I was serious about the "committee violates two of their guidelines" part -- this year they cleverly pulled this off with a single matchup! Unlv vs. California. Not only does it repeat a matchup from earlier in the year, it gives 12-seed Cal a virtual home game.

exactly which rules were violated?

cal is perfectly allowed to play in san jose as much as any other team, as it is not considered a home arena (in years where pods are in philly, villanova will often play fewer games there to ensure they are able to play there in the tournament)...

further, is there a rule that first round games cannot be repeats of earlier played games? or is that just a guideline which is flexible....i'm guessing it's the latter

[sporthenry]

exactly which rules were violated?

cal is perfectly allowed to play in san jose as much as any other team, as it is not considered a home arena (in years where pods are in philly, villanova will often play fewer games there to ensure they are able to play there in the tournament)...

further, is there a rule that first round games cannot be repeats of earlier played games? or is that just a guideline which is flexible....i'm guessing it's the latter

Darn semantics again. But when a guideline could easily be avoided, it might as well be a rule.

[hurleyfor3]

Kidding aside, the committee has guidelines which are not iron-clad.

The "no more than three home games" is a rule. But one guideline is to avoid giving low-seeded teams games that are in their immediate home area. Another is to avoid repeating matchups from the regular season in the R64.

A third is to avoid repeating matchups from recent (last two or three) ncaa tournaments before the Sweet 16. This is potentially violated with kansas/unc.

[throatybeard]

Kidding aside, the committee has guidelines which are not iron-clad.

The "no more than three home games" is a rule. But one guideline is to avoid giving low-seeded teams games that are in their immediate home area. Another is to avoid repeating matchups from the regular season in the R64.

A third is to avoid repeating matchups from recent (last two or three) ncaa tournaments before the Sweet 16. This is potentially violated with kansas/unc.

And also the rule about conference foes not meeting before the Region Final.

Except when eleven teams from the Big Defunct make the field. Fortunately, most flamed out in the first two rounds.

[Lid]

But one guideline is to avoid giving low-seeded teams games that are in their immediate home area.

As opposed to the women's tournament, where they seem to try to do this as often as possible. I understand why it happens, but sheesh.

[nmduke2001]

Since we were 6 in the final 68 behind Miami, would we have been in the same predicament had we made it to the ACC Tourney final and lost to Miami?

It's all speculation, of course, but I believe our ignominious exit from the ACC Tournament dropped us down a few pegs from where we would have been had we beaten Maryland and UNC this weekend. So no, I think we would have been a clear #1 seed had we advanced to the ACC finals.

It would have been really interesting. If we lost to Miami again and still jumped to the 1 line would Miami have stayed on the 2 line? Think of the uproar from the Duke haters.

I guess we don't have to worry about it now.

[Udaman]

I hate doing this by bracket...just going with the overall picture.

1) I think for the first time that I can remember the committee made decisions that just seem absolutely insane. UNC as an 8 seed? Really? They are 17 in the RPI. They are 28 in Kenpom. There is simply no way they should be an 8 seed. Oregon as a 12 and UCLA as a 6? Given the injuries on UCLA and Oregon won the Pac-10 tournament? I honestly think they just wrote the wrong teams down. 47th in the RPI and a 12 seed. Nuts. NC State got an 8 seed as well. I just don't get it.

2) To me our bracket is by far the hardest. Mainly because of the top 2 seeds. A week ago we were projected by everyone to be the top overall seed. Louisville now has that. We are #2 in the RPI. Louisville is #3. I actually think Michigan State is overrated...but St. Louis is absolutely legit and Creighton is easily the best 7 seed from any of the brackets. The true dark horse is Memphis. They will make the Sweet 16. They finished the season going 24-1. Preseason they were ranked in the top 20. This is a classic underachieving, under the radar kind of team. My upsets: Michigan State losing to either Valpo or Memphis. I'll be nervous as heck if we play Creighton as well. Yeesh.

3) I think the South is mixed. Kansas is obviously good....but the #2 and #3 seeds are paper tigers big time. Georgetown has some really bad losses, and has underachieved all year. Florida is even worse in this (they had awful losses at the end of the season to Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas and Ole Miss - none of which are tournament teams). I think both Florida and Georgetown could lose in the first round (and certainly the second). I would say that Florida and Arizona are the most overrated teams in the country, and have been all year. I predict neither Florida or Georgetown make the Sweet 16. Of course UNC is incredibly underseeded as an 8 seed. Unfair to both them and Kansas....and then they get the 9 seed in Villanova who beat Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette and Georgetown this year (though all of them at home). Michigan is scary good...so long as they don't zone out in the first round. Regardless, whoever comes out of that top bracket (from Kansas, UNC, Michigan or VCU) is going to the Final Four. Even if they play either Florida or Georgetown.

4) The joke conference is the West. It's not just that Gonzaga got a #1 (when they didn't deserve it over either Miami, or Duke for that matter....Miami is the first team in the history of the ACC to win the regular season and tournament and not get a #1 seed: ridiculous), it's that they then also got the 8th seed on the S curve. So their bracket has the easiest 1 and the easiest 2. That should never occur. Miami should have been in the West (they didn't put them there because they would have had to travel). They also have massively overrated 4 and 5 seeds in Kansas State and Wisconsin. Those are nothings. New Mexico is certainly a dangerous 3 seed, but they have some bad losses. The also get to play out West, which will help them a great deal. I like them in the regional finals. Gonzaga gets lucky with their matchups. It's going to be Gonzaga v. New Mexico to go to the Final Four. Not sure who I'm picking yet...probably New Mexico.

5) My 2nd toughest bracket is the East. Indiana was ranked #1 most of the year, and Miami is great. They get another vastly underseeded team in NC State as their 8. Their not as tough as ours because their 3, 4, 5, and 6 are all pretty blah (Marquette, Syracuse, UNLV and Butler. They also have the weakest 7-10 matchup by far. This is my only bracket where I think it's near 100% that the top 2 seeds advance to the regional finals (with the ONLY chance of that not happening is if Indiana loses to NC State, who might not even beat Temple, though they should).

[uh_no]

Kidding aside, the committee has guidelines which are not iron-clad.

The "no more than three home games" is a rule. But one guideline is to avoid giving low-seeded teams games that are in their immediate home area. Another is to avoid repeating matchups from the regular season in the R64.

A third is to avoid repeating matchups from recent (last two or three) ncaa tournaments before the Sweet 16. This is potentially violated with kansas/unc.

Thanks for the clarification.

It seems as if these are "best effort" type things.

We would have had to play sdsu in anaheim 2 years ago, which is 90 minutes from campus...san jose is 50 minutes from cal's campus...it's a fuzzy line, and I'm not sure it's a great fault that it gets broken sometimes, as there are a bazillion other rules which are in fact iron clad.

the other two are are much more easily seen...and if you asked the committee, they'd probably say they knew/thought about it and it was necessary to make the bracket work without violating any of the other actual rules

[uh_no]

UNC as an 8 seed? Really? They are 17 in the RPI. They are 28 in Kenpom.

28 in kenpom would put them as the weakest 7 seed...by that metric, 8 seed seems absolutely reasonable. Also consider that they have effectively no really good wins...losing 6 of 6 to top teams (3xmiami, 2xduke, 1xindiana)...they have a couple mediocre wins over state and UNLV...but not much else in terms of good wins

2) To me our bracket is by far the hardest. Mainly because of the top 2 seeds. A week ago we were projected by everyone to be the top overall seed. Louisville now has that. We are #2 in the RPI. Louisville is #3. I actually think Michigan State is overrated...but St. Louis is absolutely legit and Creighton is easily the best 7 seed from any of the brackets. The true dark horse is Memphis. They will make the Sweet 16. They finished the season going 24-1. Preseason they were ranked in the top 20. This is a classic underachieving, under the radar kind of team. My upsets: Michigan State losing to either Valpo or Memphis. I'll be nervous as heck if we play Creighton as well. Yeesh.

well, we also have the weakest 15, you acknowledge that MSU is overrated, and we can't play both of STL and UL, so why worry that they are both in our bracket? seems UL has much more to worry about than we do

Miami is the first team in the history of the ACC to win the regular season and tournament and not get a #1 seed: ridiculous), it's that they then also got the 8th seed on the S curve. So their bracket has the easiest 1 and the easiest 2. That should never occur. Miami should have been in the West (they didn't put them there because they would have had to travel).

miami was the #5 overall seed...and the overall ranking has no effect on placement of the top two teams in each region, it's 100% geography as you go down the line...so it absolutely can and does occur...it's then balanced by the 3 and 4 seeds

[hurleyfor3]

Ruminations? "Ruminate" is usually what I do to the paper my bracket is printed on after the first weekend.

[Udaman]

By the way...one really interesting dark horse (I think) is Illinois.

They are the team from the Big Ten that nobody is talking about (rightfully so). They are a 7 seed.

But....this year they won at Gonzaga by 11. They beat Butler by 17. Yes...17. They beat Ohio State, Minnesota, and Indiana. They play 4 guards and fire away from three point range. Unfortunately they got a tough, tough matchup with Miami in the 2nd round. But if they get hot from outside, and Miami overlooks them....

[SoCalDukeFan]

is not making Miami the 4th number 1 seed in the West.

Then Gonzaga is the number 2 in the West and you have 4,5 on the S curve.

Ohio State would be the 2 in the Midwest, 1,8 on the S.

Duke, Georgetown East or South.

SoCal

[DukeAlumBS]

I agree with your comment about Miami. I have them winning against Indiana. Miami is very strong, on a mission. I have Duke beating them in the final. I did this because of the ESPN types that makes these comments.
We will see,

Have nice day
Jimmy

[Ichabod Drain]

Not sure if this has been stated before but if you include the teams heading to the ACC then we have the following seeds in the tourney.

#1 Louisville (Overall)
#2 Duke
#2 Miami
#4 Syracuse
#7 Notre Dame
#8 UNC
#8 NC State
#8 Pitt

Not too shabby. Acc future is looking bright if we can hold it together.

[Norman Pfyster]

I hate doing this by bracket...just going with the overall picture.

4) The joke conference is the West. It's not just that Gonzaga got a #1 (when they didn't deserve it over either Miami, or Duke for that matter....Miami is the first team in the history of the ACC to win the regular season and tournament and not get a #1 seed: ridiculous), it's that they then also got the 8th seed on the S curve. So their bracket has the easiest 1 and the easiest 2. That should never occur. Miami should have been in the West (they didn't put them there because they would have had to travel). They also have massively overrated 4 and 5 seeds in Kansas State and Wisconsin. Those are nothings.

Wisconsin is a "nothing"? Not that Pomeroy is everything, but they are #9 and the highest ranked 5 seed (next is OSU at #20, with VCU right behind at #21). Can they lose to bad teams? Sure. So can Duke.

[ArtVandelay]

Just wondering why the Mods moved this thread into the "toughest bracket" thread? Can we not have a separate thread on people's overall tournament thoughts, predictions, upset picks, etc.?

[tele]

Yeah actually agree with that. I just can't see UNC generating enough points vs. Kansas' elite defense. They couldn't penetrate at all against Miami, and if not for some hot shooting would have lost by much more.

My real point though is that the higher the probability that a high seed can be upset, the easier the bracket is overall.

I've always been amused when people take the average rating of a region as evidence of it's strength. I think a better metric is the probability that the top four seeds advance to the second weekend; the higher, the more difficult.

If you want to compare across regions average rating is one way, if you want to rate a single regions internal strength your way may work, but only in terms of the lower seeds.

[nmduke2001]

Nate Silver makes his picks...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ding-favorite/