Left out

[wilko]

They beat Duke twice, yet not even mentioned? What does that tell you about what "others" think of Duke?

Tells me a couple of things actually.
1) Terps cant play a good game against anyone not named Duke.. (Duquesne University would be sweating them, just on principle)
2) IF the Terps HAD made the tourney, they would have been in our bracket. Guaranteed
3) Of the ACC teams that beat us - Only Miami & State made the tourney (both splits). They are in other brackets all together. I like that!

[crimsonandblue]

I'll start out by saying I have paid very little attention to this debate in years past and so don't have much historical perspective on the matter.

But regarding the "who you played/who you beat" versus the "who you lost to" perspective (as Jay Bilas argued it), I think Jay (and thus Tommy above) are coming from the viewpoint that the committee didn't seem to go by the old meme "who you played/who you beat". That is the perceived criteria they supplanted. Because if they went by the "who you played/who you beat" criteria (think of it as "schedule hard and win") then a team like St. Mary's has little business being in the NCAAT.

So let's try it.

Q: St. Mary's, who'd you play and who'd you beat?
A: Team (RPI rank)

Utah State (108)
Eastern Washington (319)
Drexel (206)
Cal Poly (165)
Drake (146)
Jackson State (309)
Pacific (103)
Rhode Island (201)
Yale (200)
Harvard (94)
Loyola Marymount x2 (208)
San Francisco x2 (166)
BYU x2 (65)
Portland x2 (231)
San Diego x3 (160)
Pepperdine x3 (207)
Santa Clara x2 (97)
Creighton (25)

By that metric I can't possibly see how St. Mary's is in the tourney. They beat Creighton. Then what? They took two from a down BYU team? That's really it as far as I'm concerned.

So, I think Jay would argue (and maybe Tommy, although I'll leave that to him) that the who-you-played-and-beat criteria was supplanted this go around. Now if the question is really whether that was ever a real criteria in the selection process to begin with, well then that's a different topic. But by that criteria, I don't see St. Mary's getting in.

It's much clearer to me that they got in because they didn't lose to anyone other than Gonzaga x3, @ Northern Iowa (RPI #80), GA Tech (148), and Pacific (103, who they later beat), the last two of which were on a neutral court.

More succinctly, their 6 losses are tolerable. But their 27 wins are pretty weak.

- Chillin

I'm not entirely sure of your point. St. Mary's is barely in the tourney, but they do have good wins against BYU and Creighton. Teams like St. Mary's play the schedule they can, to a certain extent. Often, that means they won't get at-large bids for just the reasons you outline above; they can't get games they can win against good, but not great competition. But this year, while they didn't have great wins, they frickin' pounded the teams they were able to beat. Kind of a mini-Florida scenario.

My hope is that St. Mary's is in because of a growing trend to using better analytical tools (e.g., they're kenpom 22) and they pass something of the eye-test and have a good win or two and didn't lose any true stinkers.

[ChillinDuke]

I'm not entirely sure of your point. St. Mary's is barely in the tourney, but they do have good wins against BYU and Creighton. Teams like St. Mary's play the schedule they can, to a certain extent. Often, that means they won't get at-large bids for just the reasons you outline above; they can't get games they can win against good, but not great competition. But this year, while they didn't have great wins, they frickin' pounded the teams they were able to beat. Kind of a mini-Florida scenario.

My hope is that St. Mary's is in because of a growing trend to using better analytical tools (e.g., they're kenpom 22) and they pass something of the eye-test and have a good win or two and didn't lose any true stinkers.

What you say is true. And I completely agree with the analytical tools point.

My previous point is that the line of thinking that says schedule tough and win wasn't true in this case. Maybe it never was a relevant line of thinking? I don't know. But I had certainly thought it was going into Selection Sunday.

Who did St. Mary's schedule tough? And who did they beat? Creighton is a good win. Beyond that, if you start to stretch a bit, it's BYU (in conference). But BYU's not even a tourney team. Wasn't even in the discussion. Harvard (1 pt win at home)? Yale? Georgia Tech (they lost)? Hardly a gauntlet by any measuring stick.

So I do wonder if the take on a team like St. Mary's was more that they just didn't lose many games they shouldn't have. Perhaps it was a function of this year and some of the weirdness we've been seeing all over. But team's like UVA, Alabama, etc beat way more good teams. UVA, as has been spoken about many times at this point, beat Duke, UNC, NC State, Wisconsin, and near tourney teams MD x2 and Tennessee. That is a lot more than Creighton and BYU x2. Seems to me that it was the lack of losses that spoke loudest in St. Mary's case.

I understand that St. Mary's barely made it in, but there were instances of this elsewhere. Really look no further than the #1 line with Gonzaga to see a similar parallel. Other examples could be drawn as well.

The point is - should you schedule hard hoping to beat some big boys and the losses can be overlooked if limited in number? Or should you schedule easier and just not lose? Which is it?

- Chillin

[bedeviled]

Who did St. Mary's schedule tough? And who did they beat? Creighton is a good win.

Moreover, I believe that Creighton wasn't even scheduled by St.Mary's. I think that was a "Bracket Buster" game thrust upon them by their conference and ESPN.

[tommy]

What criteria do you think they supplanted? They still seem to clearly use RPI as a grouping tool and then use some bastardized form of eye test/how you're playing lately/nitty gritty evaluation of your resume. I'm not going to ever pretend that the NCAA, in any regard, has a cohesive approach, but this year's method doesn't seem too ridiculous.

Method? I wish I knew how to upload video clips from movies and put em right in the post, but I don't. So this link to it will have to suffice.

[throatybeard]

I have a huge impulse to rename this thread Left Below in honor of The Simpsons' parody of Left Behind. But self-control is the watchword.

Kentucky was...


I'm still mad at Breen for quitting the board...

[crimsonandblue]

Method? I wish I knew how to upload video clips from movies and put em right in the post, but I don't. So this link to it will have to suffice.

Yes, yes. The horror. The horror.

I thought it was Mark Emmert with the heart of darkness.

I kid. It's not like anyone truly wants to defend the NCAA.

[Mal]

2) IF the Terps HAD made the tourney, they would have been in our bracket. Guaranteed
3) Of the ACC teams that beat us - Only Miami & State made the tourney (both splits). They are in other brackets all together. I like that!

I'd be fine with this, actually, as playing any ACC team that had previously beaten us would mean we've reached the final 8. I'll take our chances with revenge on the line to reach the Final Four against any conference opponent any time, over an unknown, probably better seeded, non-ACC opponent.

Wilko's post brings up the issue that will dominate the bracket-setting starting in a couple years: with so many gigantic conferences, you're going to have multiple conferences with 6, 7, 8 or even more teams in the field. So setting the brackets is going to be primarily a process of moving around the 5-12 seeds to avoid intraconference matchups for as deep into the tournament as possible.

[toooskies]

St. Mary's has a phenomenal statistical profile, though. #30 RPI, #22 KenPom, #37 BPI. Average ranking: 29.67. That's a team you absolutely have to include in the tournament, by all "objective" statistical measures.

Middle Tennessee #28/#32/#45. Avg: 35.00. Also need them in.

La Salle #40/#57/#54. Avg: 50.33.
Boise St. #44/#49/#44. Avg: 45.67.

As opposed to Virginia's #74/#27/#48. Avg: 49.67. At best, close with La Salle and Boise St. If you throw out KenPom (and if you're on the selection committee, you're probably only comfortable with ESPN-approved advanced metrics), UVA looks a lot worse than those bubble teams. And they lost to a 5-25 Old Dominion team!

But the other way to look at UVA is obviously important. They were 4-8 in games decided by six points or less. If they go 6-6 (as expected), they're in. If they don't schedule ODU, they're probably in (just playing them probably hurt UVA's RPI, let alone losing to them). Although there was no reason not to schedule ODU -- they were a top 100 team last year according to KenPom and top 50 in 2010 and 2011, and generally competitive each year for the past decade.

[OldSchool]

Okay, I'm flipping around on ESPN and come across what I guess is a high school game, judging by the size of the gym. Maybe 4A. I suppose it must be a playoff game given the time of year and because the small gym is absolutely packed.

Anyway, a school called R. Morris is beating a team with "Kentucky" on their uniforms. Is there a Kentucky high school somewhere?

Also, I flipped around some more and see Maryland playing Niagara in the Comcast center. But there are practically no spectators there - when they pan out, the seats are nearly empty. I can only assume someone told the students the wrong date for the game?

[roywhite]

Okay, I'm flipping around on ESPN and come across what I guess is a high school game, judging by the size of the gym. Maybe 4A. I suppose it must be a playoff game given the time of year and because the small gym is absolutely packed.

Anyway, a school called R. Morris is beating a team with "Kentucky" on their uniforms. Is there a Kentucky high school somewhere?

Haven't watched the telecast, but I see the game is being played in Moon Township, PA (small town a bit west of Pittsuburgh, near the airport).

Perhaps the announcers have already mentioned it, but Moon Township is known for producing at least one famous person -- John Calipari.

[OldSchool]

Haven't watched the telecast, but I see the game is being played in Moon Township, PA (small town a bit west of Pittsuburgh, near the airport).

Perhaps the announcers have already mentioned it, but Moon Township is known for producing at least one famous person -- John Calipari.

So far the best player for the "Kentucky" team is a short white kid, #5. I hope he gets a scholarship to play college ball somewhere, because he has a lot of grit.

[-bdbd]

Anybody know why KY was left out of the tournament??
We now know the answer.

At least according to this KY Fan call-in show we now know that it was the fault of LIBERAL SOCIALISM/OBAMA/DEMOCRATS.

Silly me - I guess I really hadn't thought about it enough...
I was thinking - obviously erroneously - that it might have had something to do with Nerlens Noel's injury. D'oh! Silly me!




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5BE4Pd941Y

http://www.buzzfeed.com/ktlincoln/ke...issing-the-tou

[uh_no]

Anybody know why KY was left out of the tournament??
We now know the answer.

At least according to this KY Fan call-in show we now know that it was the fault of LIBERAL SOCIALISM/OBAMA/DEMOCRATS.

Silly me - I guess I really hadn't thought about it enough...
I was thinking - obviously erroneously - that it might have had something to do with Nerlens Noel's injury. D'oh! Silly me!




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5BE4Pd941Y

http://www.buzzfeed.com/ktlincoln/ke...issing-the-tou

Well they really proved the doubters wrong tonight!

[FerryFor50]

Well they really proved the doubters wrong tonight!

Everyone knows Robert Morris is a secret Muslim.

[devildeac]

Okay, I'm flipping around on ESPN and come across what I guess is a high school game, judging by the size of the gym. Maybe 4A. I suppose it must be a playoff game given the time of year and because the small gym is absolutely packed.

Anyway, a school called R. Morris is beating a team with "Kentucky" on their uniforms. Is there a Kentucky high school somewhere?

Also, I flipped around some more and see Maryland playing Niagara in the Comcast center. But there are practically no spectators there - when they pan out, the seats are nearly empty. I can only assume someone told the students the wrong date for the game?

And I'll wager that the limited number of students attending did NOT have f*#k Niagara on their t-shirts.

[throatybeard]

I've seen a real dearth of Kentucky-directed Schadenfreude on FaceBook tonight. I don't know whether to be disappointed, or pleased at our maturity.

[dukeofcalabash]

Tells me a couple of things actually.
1) Terps cant play a good game against anyone not named Duke.. (Duquesne University would be sweating them, just on principle)
2) IF the Terps HAD made the tourney, they would have been in our bracket. Guaranteed
3) Of the ACC teams that beat us - Only Miami & State made the tourney (both splits). They are in other brackets all together. I like that!

Good points ... about Maryland, but nothing about what the committee thinks about Duke. I hope the team realizes more about how they are seen away from our Duke glasses and gets a chip on their shoulder.