Confidence Poll going into the NCAAT

[jipops]

I have no clue but posting here anyways. After the brackets are announced I'll still probably have very little clue. I think a lot depends on Kelly's conditioning. My dent in confidence is our off/on struggle on defense. Hopefully our shooters are hot for the next few weeks.

[Buckeye Devil]

The CBSsports site has us as the #2 in the East with Louisville as the #1 and Michigan as the #3....I would call that pretty much a "worse case scenario." In looking at their bracket, all of the other regions seem like a joke in comparison (as well they should). Here's hoping we face neither of those teams.

I think the best case for Duke is that the loss to Maryland ended the "they haven't lost with Kelly in the lineup talk" which knocked us down a peg or two and let us know that with him in the lineup we need to work just as hard. I hope the team goes back and looks at the tape of how we played back in November/December against VCU, Minnesota, Louisville and Ohio State (and Miami and UNC most recently). That's how hungry and desperate we need to be.

Getting in a bracket like that would absolutely be awful. UM and Louisville would not be favorable matchups. But it wouldn't be the first time that the committee put Duke in the absolute worst bracket possible. It seems to happen quite frequently.

[MarkD83]

Obviously we have make shots, but I think if we lose it will be about defense. One player from the other team goes off and we cannot stop him. That has happened before, and that is my concern. Of course that could happen at any time, but I will say the Sweet 16.

1. On defense, in Duke's recent losses:

Joe Harris has a career night
Dez Wells drops 30
The disaster in Miami: Kadji goes crazy from 3.

Duke needs to concentrate their defense so they don't get "Bootsied"

2. On offense, Duke's losses this year seem to be due to Opponent Familiarity with Duke. ACC opponents keep trying different ways to defend Mason as well as Ryan and our outside shooters. Someone who is not as fimilar with Duke may not have time to adjust their defense to cover all of these options. Of course, like all teams in the tournament one bad shooting night and your done. This is not a weakness for Duke but a weakness for everyone in the tournament.

[sporthenry]

Watching Louisville destroy Syracuse, can't really imagine us doing that to a ranked team. Would like to be optimistic and would love to be suprised, but leave out 2010 and our number of NCAAT wins since 2001 has been 2, 2, 4, 2, 0, 1, 2, 2, 0. We're in danger of becoming Oz The Great and Powerful. My heart says we can make a big run but my eyes and recent history say you would not be wise to bet on it. I'm guessing we lose in the Sweet 16 and hoping we win a national championship.

Well first, I fail to see how destroying a ranked team matters. Duke can beat a ranked team by 5 and still win it all. Duke isn't really built to blow out ranked teams, just beat them. Although if they get hot, they can certainly do that. But Wisconsin won't destroy a ranked team yet they just beat 2 top 10 teams in the BE tournament.

As far as Duke's run, I highly doubt many programs have a better track record than Duke does even with several disappointing runs. Only 4 teams can make the F4 and look at a team like UK who isn't even in the tourney this year. But lets look at the years you cited (and ignore the 2001 run) although it is ridiculous to rule out the 2010 run so I won't do that.

In the last 11 years, Duke has 21 wins. UNC has 27, UK has 24, MSU has 21, Indiana has 10, Syracuse 16, UCLA 17, Louisville 16, Kansas 32, Gonzaga 10, Xavier 15, Georgetown 8, Florida 20.

Forgive me if I forgot some teams but it appears KU is in a group by itself and Duke trails UNC by a half win a year or the 2001 run. And even without the 2001 title, they still have as many wins as MSU, the team who dominated the NCAAT recently or Florida who won 2 titles between then and now.

[sporthenry]

Overall, I say Duke is in as good of shape as any team heading into the tournament.

This is really all that matters and I'm not sure how many can disagree with it. No team is a real prohibitive favorite to make the F4 or win it all. Duke has maybe what a 10% chance to win it all. I'm not sure I'd put anyone way above that and from a fan of one team, sure it looks daunting but when you look at it from a universal perspective, Duke has as good a chance as any.

Same could be said of them losing in the 2nd round. Second round will feature some giant beaters and very good mid-majors. Duke has already lost to NC State and teams like Iowa State, Illinois, and Minnesota have already proven they can beat anyone on a given night. Sure Duke could lose but they'll probably be in the 65-75% favorite area according to Kenpom. So they could lose 1 in 4 times, but that is just how close these teams seem to be.

[Bob Green]

Duke needs to concentrate their defense so they don't get "Bootsied"

One fact, which is often overlooked/forgotten is Duke won the Bootsie game. I can deal with six straight "Bootsie" games in the tournament.

[TNDukeFan]

1. On defense, in Duke's recent losses:

Joe Harris has a career night
Dez Wells drops 30
The disaster in Miami: Kadji goes crazy from 3.

Derrick Williams and Arizona. Different year, but still germane...

[Kedsy]

Only the Pope is infallable, but my understanding of the tournament is that only good defensive teams survive and advance.

At this moment, Duke's defense is ranked 26th in Pomeroy. At this point in 2009 (just before the NCAAT), UNC's defense ranked 35th in Pomeroy and Villanova's ranked 25th. At this point in 2010, West Virginia's defense ranked 24th in Pomeroy and Michigan State's ranked 27th. At this point in 2011, Connecticut's D ranked 31st in Pomeroy, Kentucky's ranked 22nd, Butler's ranked 77th, and VCU's ranked 59th.

So that's eight teams in the last four years that made the Final Four (including two champions) with defenses either comparable to or worse than Duke's D this year.

There are many great analytical basketball minds on this thread, and I don't claim to be one of them, however
our destination and time is simple. We shoot 40% or better from 3 range in our games we go far. Possibly winning
it all. We have our dreaded oops game (below 40%) we are done at that time. That is just who we are. Just one
man's opinion.

While it's true that Duke shot below 40% from three in all five of our losses, it's also true that we won the other nine games this year in which we shot below 40% from long distance, including victories over NCAA tournament teams Florida Gulf Coast, Louisville, VCU, and UNC (twice). So I don't think it's nearly as simple as you make it out to be.

My concerns are the ball pressure defense that gets us beat off the dribble and lack of rebounding (2 things 2010 didn't allow).

Well, first of all, this year's team's defensive rebounding is almost exactly the same as we had in 2010. This year we rebound 67.1% of our opponents' misses and in 2010 we rebounded 67.5% of our opponents' misses. Second, while its true the 2010 team didn't apply the same kind of ball pressure, that team got beat off the dribble plenty. That team still had a great defense because our bigs were excellent at rotating over to help. In the first two months of this season, before Ryan got hurt, we also had a top ten defense, in large part for the same reason. Obviously we won't know until it happens (or doesn't), but I'm hopeful our D can get back to that level with another week of practices with Ryan.

[TruBlu]

In 2010 I was a 10 going into the tournament (crushed UNC, played well in ACCT and had the right chemistry/pieces). In 2011 I was a 8 (played great in ACCT but knew working back Kyrie would have a negative impact on Nolan). In 2012 I was a -5 (no Ryan, no chemistry, Rivers over-hyped).

This season I am a 6. We have great pieces to this team and have shown great moments recently. My concerns are the ball pressure defense that gets us beat off the dribble and lack of rebounding (2 things 2010 didn't allow) The pitiful performance on Friday is disheartening because it makes you question how a team could be so flat and lack focus going into tournament season/playing for championships, especially when you have 3 seniors who should not allow that.

Wow! Your looks really vary from year to year. Once upon a time I thought I might be around a 7, but that number has steadily and rapidly decreased over the years. But what does that have to do with basketball?

[Chris Randolph]

Wow! Your looks really vary from year to year. Once upon a time I thought I might be around a 7, but that number has steadily and rapidly decreased over the years. But what does that have to do with basketball?

Lol. I'm just going off of what I see and watch all season long. I was once a 9.5 but have been downgraded to a 9.2