MBB: Maryland 83, Duke 74 Post-Game Thread

[greybeard]

Duke likes to play an aggressive defense that tries to push the opponents as far away from the basket as possible.** I trust the coaches to judge that that's the most effective approach to D, and, of course, it can lead, even played correctly, to penetration by the ballhandlers. But it is clear that a pressing halfcourt defense, played with a degree of lassitude, has got more holes than Swiss cheese (or, for the UNC crowd, Emmenthaler). Duke was pretty passive last night, and Dez Wells had a field day.

When did Duke last not play a pressing halfcourt defense? How about 2010? We tended to pack it in but still challenge three-point shots. Why? Well, we had only two guards, Jon and Nolan, with spot help from Andre (mostly on offense). We had to conserve both our strength and our foul totals. Seemed to work out pretty well...

sagegrouse
** I still don't understand why our big men flash to the outside, but it has been a fixture at Duke forever

In the second half against Miami at Camaron, Duke packed three exterior defenders into what presented as the front of a 1-2-2 zone, but was mixed with man to man principles. The three were all inside the circle, the closest defender "took" the guy with the ball but did not close out; if the guy started to penetrate, the guy stayed with the dribbler and the other two were there to clog access to the lane.

Despite the stats put forth on another thread, I still think that K's strategy is based on the three-ball. He will deploy a defense to take it away, which will cause really athletic offensive players to go with what is their offense is geared to get in the first place--shots at the rim. In the meantime, duke presses forward with the three as what Duke is after as its preferred option. This year, coming in, K was committed to making getting the ball to Mason as a priority, but that strategy in my opinion still was part and parcel of a "three first" offensive approach. It has proven pretty darn successful, especially with a healthy and effective Ryan.

The principle weakness for Duke this season was thinness in the back line on defense. After showing real quickness, explosiveness (into the air) and an ability to pretty much control the paint through the time that Kelly went down, Mason has shown little, if any of that. Before Kelly went down, he had added a real muscle, aggressive side to his heady defensive play that undoubtedly took a load off of Mason. But, while he enhances the defensive inside enormously, Kelly really is not playing the tough guy defense he presented before he went down. What is absent, and costs, iare reinforcements to give Mason and now Kelly needed blows. Hairston pretty much fits the profile of a Lance Thomas (less quickness and explosiveness, but stronger and a bull dog), but there is no Miles or Brian, which would be much more valuable. That is where the vulnerability lies. This rest for Mason might well prove a blessing yet.

In the end,I think it is time to recognize that there is a new paridigm in the college game and I do not believe that it has anything to do with one-and-done. What I see are a great number of terrific athletes spread out among many Division one teams coached by some brilliant coaches. Seasons are ridiculously long. Programs, even the best of the best, rarely have two or three bench players that are real difference makers, given what a team needs. So even the best and most talented teams are vulnerable, even when there is a terrific player coming off the bench.

Duke is among the teams who you'd have to say have a meaningful shot on paper. A lot rests on the shoulders of Mason, who needs a meaningful contribution from Kelly each game for Mason and thus Duke to present at its best.

[mr. synellinden]

I thought early in the year, Quinn did an excellent job of getting to the rim. Against Kentucky and down in Atlantis he was really disruptive with his dribble off of high ball screens. Over the last month, he has stopped attacking the paint. When he comes off the ball screen now he wants to flatten out along the arc. He needs to come off the screen hard and get into the lane. As you point out, we need to make defenses get into help and recover mode. That is when we will see open shooters on the wing.

In my opinion this is the key to Duke's chances in the post-season. Quinn has to be a penetrator, set up easy shots or more open threes and get back to averaging 6-7 assists a game.

As a team, we HAVE to have the mentality of attacking the rim and looking to get fouled. We are an excellent FT shooting team and we have shown that our guards can break down a defense. We've lost some of that. It seems like we have been focusing on two options - going to Mason in the post, or trying to get a screen and open three. Our guards need to think first about coming off a screen and going to the basket. I hope to see that mentality and offensive game plane once the tournament starts.

I still think we have as good a chance as anyone to cut down the nets. We have 3 all conference caliber seniors, which is very rare.

[Mudge]

This game reminds me of the arizona game. They shot way above their normal and duke had nothing. Games like this happen i guess.

This about summarizes all that can (and should, really) be taken away from this game... this game does not portend a first round loss in the NCAA... Duke is still going to be a #1 seed, based on the entire season's results-- and the teams that Duke will face in a first round game will be significantly less talented, less motivated, and less starstruck/unafraid than Maryland was, facing Duke... Duke will likely win its first round game (I refuse to count the play-in games as a "round") going away (despite the Weauxf Gods), and face a team in its second round game that will ALSO be significantly less well-equipped than Maryland to challenge Duke in that game...

I don't know how it will play out, but if I had to bet, I'd bet that 7-8 days from now, most people on this board who are sounding the clarion of doom will look (and hopefully feel) pretty foolish for their ridiculous, alarmist statements about this game and Duke's immediate future, as Duke readies itself for its Round of 16 game... this Duke team has had exactly one bad game, with its full lineup intact-- this last one...if anything, with Kelly in the lineup, this team has been a model of consistency this year. Every team is prone to have one or more games where it does not play up to its usual level.. Under Coach K, Duke has far fewer of these than most of other teams (akin to UNC under Dean Smith), and this team has now gotten its bad juju out of the way-- speaking as a non-curMudgeon (for once).

This team is NOT the team that went into the Lehigh game as damaged goods, after losing Kelly. This team is not the team that stumbled all the way through the 2007 ACC season, with sub-par talent, before losing to VCU. This team is not the undersized, marginally-talented 1996 team that was in no way a heavy favorite (either seed-wise or in reality) against Eastern Michigan in 1996. Get a grip-- this season still has plenty of promise, if the right lessons are learned from this game. I think I am happier to think that (maybe) Sulaimon has got his game back in order, and his head screwed on straight, than I would have been to win this game-- having a highly productive Sulaimon back in the starting lineup is much more crucial for Duke's ultimate success ceiling in the NCAA tournament than even winning the ACC tournament would have been (let alone winning this one game). Those of you complaining about Thornton can expect to see Sulaimon back in the starting lineup, next Thursday or Friday.

[gofurman]

The only time in the K era that we lost before Saturday of the ACCT and then made it past the first weekend of the NCAAT was 1987, when we advanced to the Sweet 16 before losing.
Some point to the idea of "rest" being a good thing. We had five days off before the Maryland game. The last time this season we had that much rest was before the Miami game in Coral Gables. One could argue that given the fact that we have several players on limited practice schedules, we actually lose our edge when we go long stretches without game action.

Kelly's situation isn't all that mystifying. We've seen it before, actually - when Dunleavy returned from his mono near the end of the 2000 season. Sometimes a player can come back and play lights out on adrenaline for a few games, but then their legs and the lack of conditioning catch up with them. We're seeing it with Ryan now - his shot is flat and he's a step slow on D. He'll get it back, he just needs time - but a week may not be enough. He needs to play, not rest. Conditioning isn't built through rest.

None of that is to say the ship can't be righted - but historically we have not done well in the NCAAT when we've played poorly in the ACCT. Maybe this year will be the exception.

Well that's not a good statistic. And while people say stats are meaningless - they are not. They are hard facts as long as you use the right ones. Now, Ill say that 87 was a long time ago so that one doesnt worry me too much.

What does worry me a lil' is that in most of our other losses it was "Lack or rest - 3 games in 6 days, Mason is a lil' tired".. SO what the heck is up with this one (the Maryland one)? All week to prep for MD or Wake and for everyone to rest and focus and we look the LEAST FOCUSED we have looked all year. Case in point: didn't K call a timeout after a few possesions sensing the team was just sleepwalking. WTH? A week to get ready, no exams, no reason to be tired, etc and you come out and just lay down ???

Let's see - we now have a week to rest, no exams, etc so we can be rested and focused for the NCAA? Lets not repeat that effort. It wasnt the loss to MD that bothered me - it was the Way we lost: no effort on Defense. smacked of the Miami game.. no one getting back on D. even the casual observer could see Maryland looked more energized. I actually saw some Duke guys hang their heads a few times middle of the second half. Have pride! Get after it! Remeber Lehigh and stomp on the opponents throat early and often ! NO excuse - leave it all on the floor . Its win or go home time !

[Bojangles4Eva]

Team + kelly's first response to a loss in a long time, will be interesting to see how they respond. On paper it's unlikely we would shoot that poorly in the first weekend, but that all depends on the mental state of the team. Focused starts should be a point of emphasis next weekend. The teams we will play as a 1/2 seed will come at us just as hard as MD. Containing high scoring guards and physical big men will be key if we get those matchups.

[-bdbd]

Team + kelly's first response to a loss in a long time, will be interesting to see how they respond. On paper it's unlikely we would shoot that poorly in the first weekend, but that all depends on the mental state of the team. Focused starts should be a point of emphasis next weekend. The teams we will play as a 1/2 seed will come at us just as hard as MD. Containing high scoring guards and physical big men will be key if we get those matchups.

Just back home in DC from Greensboro, where I stayed to see the Sat. games...but just couldn't stand to watch NC amd Miami in the finals. (BTW, I think Miami wins by 6-12.)

Was really shocked at our performance Fri. It seemed like the perfect storm of a very loosely reffed game (not complaining about specific calls, but saying that allowing a more physical game helped MD), Dixon on fire (where was that fire on Sat.???) and Duke not being able to hit the broad side of a barn. But even then, with aboiut 7 minutes to go we got within one, and had some opportunities to go on top. But key shots just missed. It happens. It just seemed like we had a few unlucky rim-outs in the game's first 5 minutes, and then lost confidence, often playing in a semi-panic. Of course, especially in the second half, the crowd (especially about 12,000 light-blue-clad Terp fans) more and more rooted loudly (and very frequently vulgarly) against Duke. Sigh, just a sign of the times.But not a reason to panic. This is still an excellent team.

Remember 2010 -- a loss in the ACCT doesn't have to spell doom, and in fact can light a fire... We'll see how the Seniors lead this group in reacting...

BTW, the Miami crowd was small, so expect G'boro on Sun. to be like a UNC home game environment. But I think Miami is too mature to fall.

[Bojangles4Eva]

Well that's not a good statistic. And while people say stats are meaningless - they are not.

True, as long as you look at the right statistics. Yes we do share that stat with some not-so far advancing teams of the past, but we are also pretty comporable (based on stats with Kelly in the lineup) to teams that have gone far in the tourney. Anything can happen in the tourney with matchups, and I think that is the most important thing to focus on rather than one stat (though a telling stat, historically).

[tommy]

This about summarizes all that can (and should, really) be taken away from this game... this game does not portend a first round loss in the NCAA... Duke is still going to be a #1 seed, based on the entire season's results-- and the teams that Duke will face in a first round game will be significantly less talented, less motivated, and less starstruck/unafraid than Maryland was, facing Duke... Duke will likely win its first round game (I refuse to count the play-in games as a "round") going away (despite the Weauxf Gods), and face a team in its second round game that will ALSO be significantly less well-equipped than Maryland to challenge Duke in that game...

I don't know how it will play out, but if I had to bet, I'd bet that 7-8 days from now, most people on this board who are sounding the clarion of doom will look (and hopefully feel) pretty foolish for their ridiculous, alarmist statements about this game and Duke's immediate future, as Duke readies itself for its Round of 16 game... this Duke team has had exactly one bad game, with its full lineup intact-- this last one...if anything, with Kelly in the lineup, this team has been a model of consistency this year. Every team is prone to have one or more games where it does not play up to its usual level.. Under Coach K, Duke has far fewer of these than most of other teams (akin to UNC under Dean Smith), and this team has now gotten its bad juju out of the way-- speaking as a non-curMudgeon (for once).

This team is NOT the team that went into the Lehigh game as damaged goods, after losing Kelly. This team is not the team that stumbled all the way through the 2007 ACC season, with sub-par talent, before losing to VCU. This team is not the undersized, marginally-talented 1996 team that was in no way a heavy favorite (either seed-wise or in reality) against Eastern Michigan in 1996. Get a grip-- this season still has plenty of promise, if the right lessons are learned from this game. I think I am happier to think that (maybe) Sulaimon has got his game back in order, and his head screwed on straight, than I would have been to win this game-- having a highly productive Sulaimon back in the starting lineup is much more crucial for Duke's ultimate success ceiling in the NCAA tournament than even winning the ACC tournament would have been (let alone winning this one game). Those of you complaining about Thornton can expect to see Sulaimon back in the starting lineup, next Thursday or Friday.

Ah, perspective. Great post.

[dukeofcalabash]

Here's a major part of the problem ----- Duke's guards.
1. Curry looks like a little boy out there against bigger, faster players who are playing their guts out.
2. Cook has practically refused to penetrate and get those assists he "used" to get.
3. No bench (I still refuse to count Thornton as a starter, Rasheed is the starter).
4. No heart, no GUTS, no win. Simple as that boys, step up or go home!

[Duvall]

4. No heart, no GUTS, no win. Simple as that boys, step up or go home!

Sure two of our starters are only playing because of injuries that culs have easily cost them the season, but do they have HEART?

Fans are the worst.

[captmojo]

...is the response and responsibilty of the tall, underneath guys to be where (and when) they should be to provide help. The timely and correct placement of help defenders has been what has established Duke teams of the past, to be leaders among those known for drawing offensive charge calls. This requires a lot of vision, anticipation and communication. All three appeared to be lacking from this team, last Friday. Much of the blame lays with the Maryland bunch. They were that day's worst group to experiment against. Intense, energetic and with athletic aggression, they saw and conquered. Had our Devils been better on target at the offensive end, the outcome could have been different. For this season, it was an anomoly. Next play.

I'd have to say that after their performance, in an entertaining though losing effort against the holes yesterday, the turtles may very well have played their way into the national tournament. We'll see.

[Kedsy]

Remember 2010 -- a loss in the ACCT doesn't have to spell doom, and in fact can light a fire... We'll see how the Seniors lead this group in reacting...

I assume by "Dixon" you meant "Wells," and while I agree an ACCT loss doesn't have to spell doom, the above comment confuses me. Because in 2010, we won the ACCT.