MBB: Duke v. Maryland ACCT Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[captmojo]

A lot of people seem to have forgotten that Maryland will still be in the ACC next year. They will not be joining the B1G until the 2014-15 academic year, so irrespective of this evening's outcome, the game will not be the twerps' ACC swan song. It will still be enjoyable to mop the court with them another time, but we'll have that opportunity at least once or twice more next season.

An excellent observation.

They're still on the gone list.

[davekay1971]

Tonight may be the exception to the rule. Plenty of anti MD sentiment in the building last night.

I have a feeling the Tarheel fans filling the building will find a way to cheer for the Terps. I know I'd find it in me to cheer for Md if they were playing against UNC. After all, one team is our rivals, the other team only wants to be.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I have a feeling the Tarheel fans filling the building will find a way to cheer for the Terps. I know I'd find it in me to cheer for Md if they were playing against UNC. After all, one team is our rivals, the other team only wants to be.

Or maybe they will stay focused on their wine and cheese baskets silently watching and hoping for another shot at us tomorrow...

[Bob Green]

Key questions for the Maryland game

These are some great questions so here is my two cents on each one:

1. How will Mason do vs. Alex Len? This is the million-dollar match-up.

A quick comparison of stats between the games at Duke and at Maryland tells the story. In Cameron, Mason outscores Len 19 to 8. In College Park, Len outscores Mason 19 to 4. Len went 7-8 from the free throw line and Mason fouled out of the game. The key to this match-up will take place on the defensive end of the court. Mason must defend Len without fouling and secure defensive rebounds to prevent Len from having second and third chances to score. I believe having Kelly in the line-up will help. Moreover, Duke needs to create turnovers and get out in transition to take advantage of Mason's superior athleticism. Alex Len does not run the court well.

2. Will Kelly play well against the beefy Terps? Padgett(6-8, 235) usually starts, but Charles Mitchell (6-8, 260) and Shaquille Cleare (6-9, 265) will see plenty of action guarding both Ryan and Mason.

This will be the first time Maryland has seen Kelly so I'll turn this question around and ask, "Will Maryland achieve success defending Kelly?" I'm not predicting or expecting a 36 point performance from Kelly, but I am predicting a solid game where Kelly does the things Kelly does and scores somewhere close to his season average of ~15 points per game. Kelly needs to keep those "beefy Terps" on the perimeter and out of the post to assist Mason in achieving some success with offensive rebounding and 2nd chance points.

3. Can the Duke shooters get and make open shots against the big guards for the Terps. This was a problem in College Park; not so much in Durham

.

Duke shot 50% on 3s in Cameron (11-22) but struggled mightily in College Park knocking down only six 3s. That's 15 less points from the bonusphere. Scoring points on 3s provides Duke two advantages. The first one is obvious - long range jumpers count 3 points instead of 2; however, the more important advantage is they stretch the opponent's defense providing Mason room to operate in the post. In the end, I truly believe the outcome of this game will be dependent upon Mason controlling the interior, but it is imperative his teammates provide him adequate support to accomplish his mission. A solid performance from Duke's shooters behind the 3 PT line would be huge for Mason in his efforts to neutralize Len.

3a. And will Rasheed be an effective offensive performer after four down games?

My response here is a little tricky. With Kelly back in the line-up, the team needs perimeter defense from Sulaimon more than they need offense. Now don't misinterpret my statement to mean points from Sulaimon are not important because points are always important. However, I am of the opinion that defense wins championships and Duke needs Sulaimon to bring his defensive "A" Game onto the court more than they need him to bring his offensive "A" Game. This will be especially true against the turnover prone Terps. Sulaimon has good size and can match-up against Maryland's bigger perimeter players so he needs to use his length and lateral quickness to disrupt Maryland's offensive flow.

The eye test suggests the best way for Sulaimon to have a strong defensive performance is to start off fast on offense. Therefore, it would be great to see his first couple of shots be successful tonight.

4. Can the fumbling Terps take care of the ball? TO's and easy run-outs will make Duke's task easier. No prediction here, but this will be a key performance indicator. (Do we use the acronym KPI in hoops?)

Turnovers are always key - - I think. As I stated above, Mason is much more athletic than Len so Duke in transition plays to Mason's strength and Len's weakness. Inside Cameron, Duke scored 18 points off of 14 Maryland turnovers, while only committing four TOs that resulted in five Maryland points. That's a 13 point advantage. At College Park, Maryland turned the ball over 26 times resulting in 27 Duke points, while the Terps only scored 12 points off of 12 Duke turnovers. That's a 15 point advantage but Maryland still won the game!

5. Who has the fire in the belly for this game? The Terps have the motivation, although they are sub-bubble at the moment. I expect Duke to be on a mission.

As I stated in the Phase IV Thread, if Mason Plumlee is the player we need him to be he is excited about this opportunity for a rematch against Alex Len. Mason Plumlee must be the man with "the fire in the belly" tonight! To steal a phrase someone else used somewhere, "Mason needs to show up in his Big Boy pants!"

So my three keys to the game are:

1. Mason Plumlee neutralizing Alex Len inside.
2. Solid performance by Duke's shooters behind the 3 PT line.
3. Pressure defense turning over the Terps and creating points in transition for the Blue Devils.

[OldPhiKap]

I don't think the Heel fans want to face us again unless they are forced to do so. I am sure they will pull for Maryland, regardless.

Of course, I won't be pulling for the Heels either. So it's all good.

[capitolhill]

I suspect that Mason has watched the replay of the travesty in College Park (starting with Len's two handed shove in the back at the beginning of the game) and is plenty motivated for this one....

It sounds like you're "terping", or making excuses for Len's dominance over Mason. In fact, after that loss, I read plenty of "terping" on this board.

Mason should bounce back against Len. Len's a more talented prospect, but he's younger, less experienced and not as strong as Mason.

[DukeAlumBS]

My friends,
I made the mistake about reading that foreign policy BS about Duke . I read your comments, concerns about the game. After reading that article I have changed my feelings about todays game. I disagree with Kelly getting 15. I think he is going to be around 25 today. Open the team up like the Miami game. Plumlee will have a field day against Maryland. All our guards will be on the money. And we will win by 20!
Should have put that article somewhere else!

Have a nice day and weekend,

Go Duke

Jimmy

[Bob Green]

Vegas line has Duke favored by 9 points with the over/under set at 143 so they are looking for a score in the neighborhood of 76-67.

[loran16]

Vegas line has Duke favored by 9 points with the over/under set at 143 so they are looking for a score in the neighborhood of 76-67.

Pomeroy has 76-65. Unsurprisingly the two are pretty damn close though I'm surprised Vegas has Duke LESS of a favorite.

[jcastranio]

Revenge factor: It belongs to Duke this time. Sorry, terps, that's the rule.

Mason response to getting a** handed to him last time out factor: That is going to Duke.

Maryland turnover factor: I'll give it to MD this time. They cannot possibly turn it over as much this time as last time.

Ryan Kelly factor: This has to swing Duke's way. Extra points from Ryan's shooting and opening things up for other shooters -- worth at least 12 points.

Seth Curry leg factor: six days off before the game - this goes to Duke.

Desperation factor: Big time to Maryland. They gotta have it.

Being a little tired because we were on the court 22 hours ago factor: This goes against Maryland. Sucks to play the first day. Biggest impact is second half.

Being a little more used to the arena because we were just on the court 22 hours ago factor: This goes for Maryland. Biggest possible impact is first ten minutes.

Chip on the shoulder because Duke gets all the calls and we get no respect and we are leaving the ACC and other stuff factor: Obviously for Maryland.

Our fans might be way over-confident, but we have the greatest coach in the history of the world and we are so thankful that he was not chosen by the Cardinals to be the Pope and thus miss the NCAA tournament and he will have us ready factor: I'm going to go with Duke on this one.

Add them all up --

Mason - 20 points, 13 rebounds

Seth - 16 points

Ryan - 14 points, 8 rebounds

Quinn - 12 points, 8 assists

Rasheed - 8 points, great defense

Duke will win 78-65.

[superdave]

4. Can the fumbling Terps take care of the ball? TO's and easy run-outs will make Duke's task easier. No prediction here, but this will be a key performance indicator. (Do we use the acronym KPI in hoops?).

Maryland had 26 turnovers vs. Duke when they beat us. Allen had 8 and Wells had 6.

If we do not force these guys to protect the ball, we deserve to lose. We need to attack this weakness. Tyler should be all over the passing lanes and Quinn has got to pressure the ball, with everyone else ready to rotate in case Seth Allen gets by Quinn.

[The Gordog]

It sounds like you're "terping", or making excuses for Len's dominance over Mason. In fact, after that loss, I read plenty of "terping" on this board.

Mason should bounce back against Len. Len's a more talented prospect, but he's younger, less experienced and not as strong as Mason.

No. Terping would be if he said that the reason we lost in College Park was because the refs failed to call a push on the play.

[oldnavy]

It sounds like you're "terping", or making excuses for Len's dominance over Mason. In fact, after that loss, I read plenty of "terping" on this board.

Mason should bounce back against Len. Len's a more talented prospect, but he's younger, less experienced and not as strong as Mason.

So everyone says. I know all the announcers are falling all over themselves to praise how wonderful Len is/could be, but I just don't see it.

He is tall... but he got out played by a pretty average Freshman last night.

I am not drinking the kool-aide on how wonderful Alex Len "is going to be". There have been a lot of "potentially" great players.

[Kedsy]

Another thing to consider is in the first Duke/Maryland game this seasons, Seth Allen was suspended for the first half and played just 10 minutes for the game. In College Park, Allen played 29 minutes and scored 16 points (also had 8 turnovers).

In their win over Duke, Maryland shot 60% (78% on 2-pointers). They only shot 41% in Durham and they shoot 46% for the season. I think that's a key this game -- if Maryland gets lots of easy inside looks and shoots a high percentage, it'll probably be a close game. If we can hold them closer to their season averages, Duke should win comfortably.

Ryan Kelly will be an interesting variable. I'm not sure the beef brothers (Cleare and Mitchell) can effectively chase Ryan around the perimeter. That would leave the assignment to either Padgett or (less likely) Layman, and Ryan should be able to win either of those matchups. Also, if Maryland is forced to expend defensive attention on Ryan, as others have pointed out that would leave Mason one-on-one with Len, and that should be to our advantage.

On the perimeter, Seth scored 25 in the 2nd Maryland game; Rasheed scored 25 in the first Maryland game. Quinn did pretty well in both. Based on that limited evidence, it would seem Maryland can effectively defend only one of our three perimeter guys at a time. On defense, whatever we've been doing against Dez Wells has been reasonably effective, though he killed us on the boards both games (7 & 8 rebounds).

Overall, I'd guess our offense should be pretty effective in this game. Maryland should continue to turn the ball over. If we can keep them close to their season shooting averages, we should be OK.

[Billy Dat]

Ryan Kelly will be an interesting variable. I'm not sure the beef brothers (Cleare and Mitchell) can effectively chase Ryan around the perimeter. That would leave the assignment to either Padgett or (less likely) Layman, and Ryan should be able to win either of those matchups. Also, if Maryland is forced to expend defensive attention on Ryan, as others have pointed out that would leave Mason one-on-one with Len, and that should be to our advantage.

Do we think Ryan is better off initially trying to catch and drive on the beef brothers or catch and shoot? He'll do what the defense gives him, I guess, but I'd like to see us put some pressure on that front line by making Len come over to help when Ryan drives leaving some dump off opportunities for Mason, assuming Ryan can drive on them which I think he can, especially if he sets them up with shot fakes. However they defend, I hope Ryan can learn from the early stretches of the Carolina game and pull up rather than allow Maryland to draw charges.

[Kedsy]

Do we think Ryan is better off initially trying to catch and drive on the beef brothers or catch and shoot? He'll do what the defense gives him, I guess, but I'd like to see us put some pressure on that front line by making Len come over to help when Ryan drives leaving some dump off opportunities for Mason, assuming Ryan can drive on them which I think he can, especially if he sets them up with shot fakes. However they defend, I hope Ryan can learn from the early stretches of the Carolina game and pull up rather than allow Maryland to draw charges.

If Maryland defends Ryan the way most teams do, he'll get a couple clean looks early and will shoot them. Hopefully one or more go in. Once the hefty heifers attempt to come out to stop the three, Ryan can drive. My guess is they foul him way before he's in danger of committing the offensive foul. Soon after that, Cleare and Mitchell will likely take a seat on the bench for most of the rest of the game.

[BD80]

This year's BIG tournament will be held in Chicago.

Next year it gets interesting, with the addition of Rutgers and Md. I hear GoogleMaps and Mapquest are vying for the sponsorship rights. Considering Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, I hear Toronto is the leading candidate ...

... 1. How will Mason do vs. Alex Len? This is the million-dollar match-up. ...

sagegrouse
'Go Duke!'

Literally. This could move either or both up or down a few slots in the draft.

One factor often overlooked is that we haven't played in 5 days, whereas Md played on these rims last night. This often leads to the underdog taking a lead early in the game.

We CANNOT compound the problem with a lethargic start. We really need to come out hard on defense.

[gwlaw99]

Len says they are going with a small line up with 6'5 Dez Wells guarding Kelly.
http://www.heraldsun.com/sports/x145...ace-Duke-today

[cato]

Also, if Maryland is forced to expend defensive attention on Ryan, as others have pointed out that would leave Mason one-on-one with Len, and that should be to our advantage.

Am I totally misremembering the game in College Park? I thought Len mostly defended Mason one-on-one. That said, I was quite frustrated that whole game, so my recollection is suspect.

[Kedsy]

Am I totally misremembering the game in College Park? I thought Len mostly defended Mason one-on-one. That said, I was quite frustrated that whole game, so my recollection is suspect.

Well, my recollection could be just as faulty, or faultier, but I recall a lot of double teams and packing of the lane.