Phase V -- The ACC Tournament

[sagegrouse]

Wow! What a journey! From start of practice through Saturday’s thorough drubbing of UNC, the Blue Devils have had huge wins and a few disappointing losses. Let’s remember the early-season wins against Kentucky, Minnesota, VCU, Louisville, Ohio State and Temple that propelled Duke to a #1 AP ranking. And Duke had significant conference wins against Miami when Ryan returned, State, and twice against the Tar Heels. We won’t dwell on the disappointments.

Our expectations have changed over the season. Phase 0 and I spoke confidently of a three-forward starting lineup of Mason, Ryan and either Alex or Amile. Phase II talked of Marshall’s return and insertion in the rotation. Neither happened, but Duke has had a heckuva season anyway.

We have covered about 20 separate topics in the five prior Phase Reports. About ten or so have been put to rest:

• How valuable is our experience? (OMG!)
• Who will provide leadership? (Tyler and the seniors.)
• Can we shoot effectively from outside? (How’s 41.6 percent, third among 300+ Div. 1 teams?)
• Will Duke at times (Hah!) be forced to use a three-guard lineup? (How often have we had three forwards on the court? Less than two minutes per game?)
• Do we have an effective point guard? (Meet Mr. Cook.)
• Will there be a freshman star? (Meet Mr. Sulaimon.)
• Did Duke peak in November and December? (Apparently not.)
• Can we win on the road? (Road games have ended, thankfully and on a high note.)
• Will we get points off the bench? (Not likely.)
• Is free-throw shooting a weak link? (Overall percentage of 72.7 percent is second in the ACC. Mason has improved, and the other shooters are over 80 percent.)
• Will there be minutes for the bottom of the rotation? (Only when Ryan was out.)

But big questions remain, and in Phase V we will turn our attention to these:

1. Health. Ya’ gotta like the trend. Ryan’s back and as good as ever; Seth has seemingly gotten stronger and better through the season; Marshall is available now if needed. But the improving past is not necessarily prologue. The tough ACC Tournament can take a toll. We hope that the injury bug stays away for the rest of the season. Haven’t we had our full share?

2. Defensive Pressure. Our expectation for the season was that the availability of Alex and Amile and the introduction of a strong defender like Rasheed would add length and skill and cure the deficiencies from last year. Well,… the defense, while inconsistent, appears to be better overall and at times very good. It is occurring, it seems, because the individual players are better and more focused on defense rather than because we have different players.

This season, for example, Duke has shot, as noted, 41.6 percent from beyond the arc; the opponents, 28.8 percent. Duke has as assist-to-turnover ratio 1.37 – two times that of the opponents, who are at 0.64.

The defense has not been consistent through the course of a game, with Duke seeming to bring the defensive pressure in the second half. This could be unfortunate in games where the shots aren’t falling for the Devils. Saturday at Carolina showed what Duke can do on defense from the start of the game.

3. Rebounding. Good rebounding team or not-so-good rebounding team, the stats usually show the Devils trailing on the boards – year-in and year-out, so it seems. In any event, holding our own on the offensive and defensive boards is crucial and a key indicator.

4. Whither Rasheed? Our freshman star averaged 4.3 points per game the last four games but 18.3 the four games before that. We have seen an earlier slump and a roaring recovery. Will he return to the starting lineup if we play the large and powerful Terrapins, or will Tyler remain the starter? And will we see a return to Sulaimon’s powerful offensive game? This is important for the ACC Tournament and the NCAA’s to follow.

5. Rotation. With Ryan in the lineup, Josh’s minutes have held up (and he has played well), while Amile’s and Alex’s have plummeted. With a potential of three games in three days we will need quality minutes from Josh, Amile and Alex – will we get them?

6. Mason as a Preternatural Force. We liked the performance of Mason against UNC, taking advantage of a smaller team and being the focal point of the offense in the second half. Can he play at the same level this week?

Now we turn to the possible matchups in the ACC’s. The most likely quarterfinal opponent, going by the record, is Maryland, which should be favored over Wake Forest. The Terps are the most powerful team in the conference with Len, Cleare, and Mitchell. They are also inconsistent on offense and prone to turnovers. (“It’s what we do,” said Mark Turgeon at halftime of the recent Duke game.) Here are the questions:

7. Can our defensive pressure stymie the Terps, produce turnovers, and keep their point total at 60 or below?

8. Will Mason and Ryan be effective on offense against the tall and bulky Maryland team?

9. Will our shooters be effective against the tall Terrapin guards?

Positive answers will mean victory.

Wake, the other potential quarterfinal opponent, is a young but skilled team that doesn’t have the size and strength of Maryland.

10. Will Duke be effective in unleashing an offensive juggernaut, both inside and outside, against the smaller Deacons?

11. Can the defense control the talented Deacons, especially Travis McKie, C.J. Harris, and Devin Thomas?

The semifinals may bring yet another game against the Tar Heels.

12. Can Duke play at the same high level so soon after the blowout win on Saturday or will the quick turn-around favor the embarrassed Tar Heels?

13. Will the Tar Heels change their approach and go back to a larger lineup against the more powerful Blue Devils?

We don’t discount the possibility of an upset on Friday of a discouraged UNC team and the appearance of either Florida State or Clemson in the semifinals. Florida State brings tenacious defense, a limited offense, and an exceedingly crafty Michael Snaer.

14. Duke pounded FSU in Tallahassee. Will a hot-shooting Duke team do the same again or will this be a slog-it-out affair decided at the end?

Clemson is another tenacious defensive team with limited offense.

15. Will Clemson be the classic trap game, taking the Devils all the way to the wire?

It is tough at the beginning of the week to speculate on the finals opponent from the other bracket (not to mention the insult to the weauxf gods by even thinking two games ahead). So we will just look at the questions the Miami Hurricanes face.

16. Can BC or Georgia Tech spring an upset on a suddenly vulnerable Miami team? If Miami is flat, a hot-shooting Eagles team or a tenacious Yellow jacket squad could beat them.

17. Are State and Virginia up to the task of upsetting the Canes? Both teams have limped to the finish line, State losing to FSU and Virginia coming back from 17 points against the Terps and winning in overtime. Both teams have the talent to win but will be underdogs against the strong and experience Miami team. It could be an evenly matched semifinal.

That’s my take on the season so far and the ACC Tournament. Now we would like to hear from you –

sagegrouse

[Kedsy]

Nice writeup, Sage. And thanks for putting health first.

I think you've hit all the high points. Hopefully the more games (and practices) Ryan gets with the team, the better and more consistent our defense will become. D is key in the T (both ACCT and NCAAT). Defensive rebounding will continue to be an issue, but if Ryan, Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyler focus on it, we can probably manage our weakest area reasonably well. And as you say, we could use another "roaring recovery" from Rasheed.

The only issue I would amplify is that in both the ACCT and the NCAAT we'll be playing multiple games on short rest. So far this season on short rest, Seth has shot 3 for 9 against VCU, 3 for 11 against Louisville, 1 for 6 against Ohio State, 3 for 10 against Elon, and 2 for 8 against Miami. In our possible future, the ACCT semi-final and final, the 2nd round NCAAT, the Elite Eight (if we're fortunate enough to be playing in it), and the NCAA championship game (ditto) will all be played on short rest. Hopefully Seth's injury will be healed enough so that he'll be able to play to his usual standards in those games.

[BigWayne]

Nice writeup, Sage. And thanks for putting health first.

I think you've hit all the high points. Hopefully the more games (and practices) Ryan gets with the team, the better and more consistent our defense will become. D is key in the T (both ACCT and NCAAT). Defensive rebounding will continue to be an issue, but if Ryan, Quinn, Rasheed, and Tyler focus on it, we can probably manage our weakest area reasonably well. And as you say, we could use another "roaring recovery" from Rasheed.

The only issue I would amplify is that in both the ACCT and the NCAAT we'll be playing multiple games on short rest. So far this season on short rest, Seth has shot 3 for 9 against VCU, 3 for 11 against Louisville, 1 for 6 against Ohio State, 3 for 10 against Elon, and 2 for 8 against Miami. In our possible future, the ACCT semi-final and final, the 2nd round NCAAT, the Elite Eight (if we're fortunate enough to be playing in it), and the NCAA championship game (ditto) will all be played on short rest. Hopefully Seth's injury will be healed enough so that he'll be able to play to his usual standards in those games.

You can easily go through the stats for this year and find examples of games where Seth had poor shooting on ample rest (1st Miami game for example) and good shooting on short rest games also. ACC tourney is tough on the whole team with hopefully 3 games in 3 days, but the other team has the same problem or worse. NCAAT is only two games a week like most of the conference season. Yes the 2nd game each week is only two days later, but you don't have to travel for it and you don't have to go to class. I'm sure Seth and the Duke staff will be able to handle it.

[Troublemaker]

About "Whither Rasheed", it's a concern of mine.

Austin hit the wall pretty much the exact same time last season, never having another good game past 2/25. Rasheed's last good game was 2/24 (and actually was probably his best game of the season).

Austin: http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelo.../austin-rivers

Rasheed: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...sheed-sulaimon

Do I think Sheed recovers when Austin did not?

Yes, yes I do. Things just have a way of working themselves out for this team this year. We could've lost Seth for the season but we didn't. We could've had problems re-integrating Ryan (or his injury could've been slightly worse and rendered him out for the season), but that didn't happen.

Sometimes the karma's with you. Sometimes it's not.

[weezie]

No! No whither Rasheed stuff! He's showing some great flashes out on the court. The game is so fast when he's out there. Stay positive Rasheed!
We've had so many more guys involved in the games all season, up and down. It's all got to be good.

[camion]

I think point number 1, health, really is the number 1 question. Can Seth and Ryan handle three games in three days. That's gonna be tough for a player that can't really even practice and another just getting in game shape from injury.

[Ichabod Drain]

I think point number 1, health, really is the number 1 question. Can Seth and Ryan handle three games in three days. That's gonna be tough for a player that can't really even practice and another just getting in game shape from injury.

If we do make it to the finals of the ACC tournament it would actually be three games in less than two days if I'm not mistaken. Thats a lot of game time for those two.

[loran16]

No Phase IV recap? Ah well.

I'd add a 7th: Can the D Return to how good it was with Kelly?

One of the more underrated stories was how bad our D got when Kelly was injured. Duke's D had improved drastically from last year into a top 10 unit in Pomeroy, which is why until Kelly's injury Duke was basically statistically equivalent to the #1 and #2 Pomeroy teams. Up through Clemson only 3 teams had put up Offensive Efficiencies over 100 (Average), Kentucky, OSU, and Santa Clara (Yes, Santa Clara). Only 3 other teams had O Efficiencies over 90 (Temple, louisville, and Minnesota), and a 90 OEfficiency is BAD (That's .9 points per possession which would put you 316th out of 347 D1 teams if you did that all year). That's elite - 9 games holding opponents under 90 Offensive efficiency.

Without Kelly, the D declined - Only one opponent was held under 90 O Efficiency (GTech), and 6 scored over 100, including 3 over 110 (Amazingly we won one of those games, the home game vs NC State). That's not so good. And our D declined in Pomeroy to barely top 25, and would've been worse except Pomeroy was still including the earlier games.

With Kelly, the D Efficiency of opponents has been as follows:
Against Miami: 110.6 (Bad)
Against VaTech: 96 (Worse than without Kelly at VT somehow)
Against Carolina: 87 (Elite, their 4th lowest production rate this season)

That game on Saturday was the first sign that the old D was back. The question is whether it can return fully. Kelly's impact on the O is obvious and it's clear that his re-insertion to the lineup has bolstered the O instantly. His impact on the D may take more time to be felt - and hopefully not too much more.

[MCFinARL]

No! No whither Rasheed stuff! He's showing some great flashes out on the court. The game is so fast when he's out there. Stay positive Rasheed!
We've had so many more guys involved in the games all season, up and down. It's all got to be good.

Agreed. On Saturday, Rasheed played fewer minutes with Tyler starting, which according to K had to do with defensive matchups--and Tyler, for sure, did a great job on Bullock. Though Rasheed scored only one point in his 15 minutes, he only took two shots--and given the way the rest of the offense was clicking, that may have been all he needed to take. Meantime he grabbed 3 rebounds and had two beautiful assists. With Kelly back, and more offensive production expected from the 4, there may be some adjustments for Sulaimon to make in figuring out when to shoot and when to pass. But I don't think there is any reason to worry that he won't be able to play well going forward. (Any more than there is reason to worry about any of the things we worry about on this board.)

[CDu]

I'm in the camp that believes we've already secured a #1 seed in the tournament, and that our #1 seed will either be in the East or South. So from that perspective, there isn't much that concerns me regarding the results this weekend (except of course that it is awesome to win championships!). My main concerns are:

- staying healthy (most notably Cook and the senior 3)
- getting Sulaimon back on track

As long as we stay healthy, I like our chances. But it'd be really nice to see Sulaimon bounce back to being an impact player again as we enter the tournaments. With the quick turnaround between games, it could be tougher on Curry. So getting an additional perimeter shooting threat would be a nice icing on what is already a pretty tasty cake.

[MCFinARL]

I'm in the camp that believes we've already secured a #1 seed in the tournament, and that our #1 seed will either be in the East or South. So from that perspective, there isn't much that concerns me regarding the results this weekend (except of course that it is awesome to win championships!). My main concerns are:

- staying healthy (most notably Cook and the senior 3)
- getting Sulaimon back on track

As long as we stay healthy, I like our chances. But it'd be really nice to see Sulaimon bounce back to being an impact player again as we enter the tournaments. With the quick turnaround between games, it could be tougher on Curry. So getting an additional perimeter shooting threat would be a nice icing on what is already a pretty tasty cake.

I wonder if the need to rest Curry more might mean that we see more minutes with Cook, Sulaimon, and Thornton on the court and if that might also allow some slightly easier defensive assignments for Sulaimon, giving him potentially more energy to focus on offense. Just a thought.

[sagegrouse]

No Phase IV recap? Ah well.

.

I gave Phase IV short shrift while looking at the entire regular season. Here's my take on the Phase IV questions:

1. Weathering the Road? Well, not exactly, with losses at Maryland and Virginia. But a win in Chapel Hill overcomes a lot of negatives elsewhere.
2. Health for the Healthy (not RK)? So far so good. No additional injuries and Seth continues to get stronger.
3. Reintegration (of Ryan Kelly)? A total blessing IMHO. There were no significant hitches, except that, as you pointed out, our defense against Miami was subpar.
4. Power Forward (pre RK's return)? This was a good news situation. Josh, Amile and Alex became very productive players in this phase of the season. It's great to have Ryan back, however, but it's good to have capable rotation players when Ryan or Mason sit.
5. Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Cook? I.e., can Cook play with consistency? No problem in shooting; his worst game of the past seven was 6-16/ 2-6 ay Maryland. He has 24 assists and 15 turnovers over the period, with subpar games against Maryland. (Of course, you don't get an assist if your teammate misses an open shot.) I think Quinn Cook has played extremely well, and the recent games bear me out. Go, Quinn!
6. Mason Plumlee, NPOY? Can he play at the highest level for the remainder of the ACC season? It seems to me that MP2 has played well with Ryan in the lineup, although he didn't put up big numbers against Miami. His UNC performance was a revelation. Generally, the trend is positive for Mason, but he has struggled on both ends of the court in some games.
7. Read and React? Hard to say without reviewing the games in more detail, but one thing is certain. Every future opponent will be preparing schemes to press Duke in end-game situations. We were awful against Miami and unimpressive against UNC. Of course, Duke will be working on this as well. I can't remember the game, but there was clearly a problem earlier with Mason taking the ball out when Ryan was not available.
8. Hitting the Defensive Glass? Duke continues to be below par here. I think there are compensating advantages in on-the-ball defense that produces fewer and worse shots, but the rebouond numbers don't lie. Opponents in Phase IV got one-third or more of the available offensive rebounds in four of the seven games. Only Maryland wa a loss, however, as Duke did poorly in a win against Miami and against UNC. What is also interesting is that the correlation with losses is for total rebounds not defensive rebound percentage. We got schooled by Maryland on the boards, 40 to 20, and by Virginia, 36 to 25. Miami was also poor rebounding but, thanks to our man Ryan, more than offset by fabulous shooting. This is a work in process.

My take -- others weigh in, please.

sagegrouse

[Kedsy]

You can easily go through the stats for this year and find examples of games where Seth had poor shooting on ample rest (1st Miami game for example) and good shooting on short rest games also.

Yes, Seth had a few poor shooting games that weren't on short rest (Davidson, Miami, first UNC game), but I didn't see any good shooting by Seth in any game fewer than 3 days after the previous game. Which such games do you mean?

[loran16]

Agreed. On Saturday, Rasheed played fewer minutes with Tyler starting, which according to K had to do with defensive matchups--and Tyler, for sure, did a great job on Bullock. Though Rasheed scored only one point in his 15 minutes, he only took two shots--and given the way the rest of the offense was clicking, that may have been all he needed to take. Meantime he grabbed 3 rebounds and had two beautiful assists. With Kelly back, and more offensive production expected from the 4, there may be some adjustments for Sulaimon to make in figuring out when to shoot and when to pass. But I don't think there is any reason to worry that he won't be able to play well going forward. (Any more than there is reason to worry about any of the things we worry about on this board.)

I love Sheed and I want him starting. That said, despite my dislike of TT's play, he did a MARVELOUS job staying on Bullock all game. He deserves another start, especially if we're playing UNC again.

EDIT:

What is also interesting is that the correlation with losses is for total rebounds not defensive rebound percentage. We got schooled by Maryland on the boards, 40 to 20, and by Virginia, 36 to 25. Miami was also poor rebounding but, thanks to our man Ryan, more than offset by fabulous shooting. This is a work in process.

There's a reason for this. The games where you're outrebounded by large numbers are generally the ones where you MISS A LOT OF SHOTS and thus give opponents more chances for easy (Defensive boards).

Duke wasn't a good rebounding team WITH Kelly. It's going to be our flaw going forward this year. The rest of the D needs to be better to compensate. They can be.

[CDu]

Yes, Seth had a few poor shooting games that weren't on short rest (Davidson, Miami, first UNC game), but I didn't see any good shooting by Seth in any game fewer than 3 days after the previous game. Which such games do you mean?

That's kind of a tough bar to set. We haven't had many games with less than 3 days rest this year (note: by less than 3 days, I assume you mean that a game is either 1 or 2 calendar days from the previous game - it may well be that some of the 3-day-rest games are actually closer to 2 days worth of rest). The only one we've had this calendar year was the Miami game. And as we saw in Coral Gables on full rest, Curry struggles with Miami's bigger guards.

Furthermore, two of the other games on short rest (vs VCU, vs Louisville) came against physical, defensive-minded teams. So I don't know that it's fair to blame those performances on the leg (at the very least not entirely).

So, basically, there's one game (vs Elon) in which Curry was on short rest against a team that doesn't play very good defense. I think it's just as reasonable to say that he simply had an off-night rather than that the leg prevented him from playing well.

It's certainly possible that the leg was the reason Curry has struggled on short rest. It's also possible that it was just unfortunate timing that 3 of the 4 short-rest matchups were against good-to-very good defensive teams.

[Saratoga2]

When you watch teams like Michigan and IU battle it out, you see as many as 12 players from Michigan and a lot from IU get into the game as it was fast paced and hard fought. Duke has not played a lot of guys and will be up against it with Seth dealing with multiple games and Ryan also not totally in playing shape.

Will we try to play just a 7 man rotation or will we use additional subs?
1. Will Rasheed start or sub?
2. Will Tyler avoid foul trouble or be limited due to it?
3. Josh is clearly our first big man sub, but can he match up well against big and quick forwards?
4. Are Amile and Alex thought to be viable subs? (I think so, especially Amile, but what do the coaches think?)
5. Can Marshall give any effective minutes?

I am in favor of using a 9 player rotation in the tourney.

[CDu]

When you watch teams like Michigan and IU battle it out, you see as many as 12 players from Michigan and a lot from IU get into the game as it was fast paced and hard fought. Duke has not played a lot of guys and will be up against it with Seth dealing with multiple games and Ryan also not totally in playing shape.

Will we try to play just a 7 man rotation or will we use additional subs?
1. Will Rasheed start or sub?
2. Will Tyler avoid foul trouble or be limited due to it?
3. Josh is clearly our first big man sub, but can he match up well against big and quick forwards?
4. Are Amile and Alex thought to be viable subs? (I think so, especially Amile, but what do the coaches think?)
5. Can Marshall give any effective minutes?

I am in favor of using a 9 player rotation in the tourney.

Don't hold your breath on that happening. This has been discussed a LOT on this board over the years, and all evidence has pointed to Coach K shortening the rotation rather than lengthening it.

[loran16]

Don't hold your breath on that happening. This has been discussed a LOT on this board over the years, and all evidence has pointed to Coach K shortening the rotation rather than lengthening it.

Yep. The rotation is right now:

ALWAYS STARTING
Mason
Ryan
Curry
Cook

POSSIBLE STARTERS
Sheed
TT

FIRST OFF BENCH:
Josh

OTHER BENCH:
Amile.

8 Men. I'd bet Amile is limited in minutes as we go further on. It's what K does.

[davekay1971]

Don't hold your breath on that happening. This has been discussed a LOT on this board over the years, and all evidence has pointed to Coach K shortening the rotation rather than lengthening it.

I always think that depth is less of a problem in the tourney. Although the 2nd game of any weekend is only 2 days after the first, there is a 5 day rest between end of conference tournament and round 1, then usually a 5 day rest between round 2 and round 3. The guys get a lot of rest and recovery time prior to the first and third rounds of the tournament (oh, fine, yes the NCAA would call it then 2nd and 4th round, but that's because they're evil and won't admit that the Dayton games are play-in games).

K has historically shortened his bench during the tournament, probably on the notion that fatigue isn't enough of a factor to warrant not having his best options on the court as much as possible in a win-or-go-home format. I think he's right. Games where fatigue really is a huge factor either in that game or in the next game (Arkansas 1990, for example) are kind of few and far between.

[Kedsy]

It's certainly possible that the leg was the reason Curry has struggled on short rest. It's also possible that it was just unfortunate timing that 3 of the 4 short-rest matchups were against good-to-very good defensive teams.

Absolutely it's possible it's just a fluke owing to specific opponents and a small sample size. Seth also seems to shoot poorly when he gets overly amped up possibly due to wanting to prove something to people in the crowd (e.g., Davidson, first UNC game, previous years @Va Tech), and whatever plays into that may have had at least a little influence in the big games against VCU, Louisville, Ohio State, and Miami. Or it could be certain defenders (e.g., Durand Scott, Aaron Craft) give him trouble -- I don't remember who defended him for VCU, Louisville, or Elon.

So I hope you're right. He's been so marvelous playing as well as he has with the injury and I'd hate for the remaining schedule to ruin the last leg (so to speak) of his college career.