MBB: Duke @ UNC Pre-Game and In-Game thread

[dukelifer]

Its the third ranked team in the country versus an unranked team. Game over.

Clearly you have never watched a Duke-UNC game.

[slower]

Its the third ranked team in the country versus an unranked team. Game over.

smh

Before EVERY game. You guys come out every time, and apparently never learn from the past.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

But RK makes all the difference, at both ends. We're not unbeatable with Ryan, but we're a lot harder to beat. There's plenty of analysis on the benefits he brings on offense and defense, so I won't rehash it all now, but suffice it so say that we are much, much harder to guard with Ryan in the lineup, and our help defense is much better with Ryan. If he also brings improved rebounding, which I think he will, Duke is a vastly superior team in all phases of the game with Ryan than we were without him.

I don't follow betting lines or performance against the spread all that closely, but it's been my feeling that Vegas has underestimated the Ryan impact. IIRC, Duke rarely covered the Vegas spread without Ryan in the lineup. We may see the opposite effect now, with Vegas not giving enough credit to the impact of Ryan being back. Hopefully that's the case, because I don't want to spend the next week hearing all the UNC fans around here boasting about how UNC tied Duke for 2nd in the ACC. Those people have gotten a little strut back, and that needs to be beaten from them quickly and brutally.

I've watched Kelly for 4 years and I'd describe him as "steady", "solid". He's a quality college player that won't make too many mistakes. As a defender I'd say he is average, but he is experienced and smart, which covers up his athletic weaknesses well. He struggles against big, strong guys, and gets beaten off the dribble by smaller players. Nutshell...he often plays like a "tweener" even at 6'11.

He's gonna have trouble defending PJ, McAdoo or Bullock...whoever he matches up with.

I doubt he's gonna suddenly become a post threat in this one, although I like his inside offensive moves at the basket better than Mason's. His real threat is as a catch and shoot, face up shooter and putback rebounder if he's not blocked out.

Offensively, Kelly can be taken out of games by quicker defenders that put a body on him and beat him to spots on the floor. Kelly plays tough, but not strong. I happen to think PJ is the perfect defender for him. PJ is strong and tough, too quick for Kelly. PJ needs to stay home on him and remember to deny the catch and shoot. Force Kelly to shoot a contested shot over him or put it on the floor.

BTW, I won't be able to post after the game until tomorrow, so don't come after me and think I have run and hid if Duke wins

[LadyBlueDevil]

wmkHrdT.jpg

Was no one watching the chapel??

Now we're going to have to buy new song books to replace the desecrated ones and we'll have to pay to have the chapel fumigated. *sigh*

[roywhite]

I've watched Kelly for 4 years and I'd describe him as "steady", "solid". He's a quality college player that won't make too many mistakes. As a defender I'd say he is average, but he is experienced and smart, which covers up his athletic weaknesses well. He struggles against big, strong guys, and gets beaten off the dribble by smaller players. Nutshell...he often plays like a "tweener" even at 6'11.

He's gonna have trouble defending PJ, McAdoo or Bullock...whoever he matches up with.

I doubt he's gonna suddenly become a post threat in this one, although I like his inside offensive moves at the basket better than Mason's. His real threat is as a catch and shoot, face up shooter and putback rebounder if he's not blocked out.

Offensively, Kelly can be taken out of games by quicker defenders that put a body on him and beat him to spots on the floor. Kelly plays tough, but not strong. I happen to think PJ is the perfect defender for him. PJ is strong and tough, too quick for Kelly. PJ needs to stay home on him and remember to deny the catch and shoot. Force Kelly to shoot a contested shot over him or put it on the floor.

BTW, I won't be able to post after the game until tomorrow, so don't come after me and think I have run and hid if Duke wins

Come on, Wheat. Methinks you damn him with faint praise.

Steady and solid doesn't describe the guy who had 36 against Miami. Or shoots better than 50% from 3-pt for the season. Or was playing like Kelly was prior to his injury. He's a very good college player, very valuable on both ends, and a major weapon.

[Wander]

I've watched Kelly for 4 years

Really? Because I'm pretty sure I remember you posting earlier that you've only seen a few Duke games this year, all of them while Kelly was injured.

[Kedsy]

Clearly you have never watched a Duke-UNC game.

In that guy's defense, he's right that unranked teams don't beat top five teams very often in this rivalry. As I posted earlier, in Coach K's time we have had 14 Duke/UNC games when one team was top five and the other unranked. The top five team won 13 out of 14 (the one being a 1990 UNC win over #5 Duke in Chapel Hill). So, it can happen but the odds are stacked against it.

As a defender I'd say he is average, but he is experienced and smart, which covers up his athletic weaknesses well. He struggles against big, strong guys, and gets beaten off the dribble by smaller players. Nutshell...he often plays like a "tweener" even at 6'11.

He's gonna have trouble defending PJ, McAdoo or Bullock...whoever he matches up with.

I can tell you haven't watched much of Ryan Kelly this season. For example, he held Deshaun Thomas well below his averages in both points and rebounds, and Thomas is a much better player than either Bullock or Hairston, and probably McAdoo too. Ryan is not a "tweener" in college. He's a plus defender at this level, against both big, strong guys and smaller, quicker ones.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Come on, Wheat. Methinks you damn him with faint praise.

Steady and solid doesn't describe the guy who had 36 against Miami. Or shoots better than 50% from 3-pt for the season. Or was playing like Kelly was prior to his injury. He's a very good college player, very valuable on both ends, and a major weapon.

He's a high quality shooter, for sure. His shot has to be respected and I think I've made that clear. I'll also add one great shooting night does not make him an all american.

He is a good player, and can be very good on a given day, but there are a lot of good players around.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Really? Because I'm pretty sure I remember you posting earlier that you've only seen a few Duke games this year, all of them while Kelly was injured.

I have missed more games than usual for me this year, but I've seen enough to stand by my opinions.

[dukelifer]

In that guy's defense, he's right that unranked teams don't beat top five teams very often in this rivalry. As I posted earlier, in Coach K's time we have had 14 Duke/UNC games when one team was top five and the other unranked. The top five team won 13 out of 14 (the one being a 1990 UNC win over #5 Duke in Chapel Hill). So, it can happen but the odds are stacked against it.



I can tell you haven't watched much of Ryan Kelly this season. For example, he held Deshaun Thomas well below his averages in both points and rebounds, and Thomas is a much better player than either Bullock or Hairston, and probably McAdoo too. Ryan is not a "tweener" in college. He's a plus defender at this level, against both big, strong guys and smaller, quicker ones.

How many of those games have been close?

[AGDukesky]

He's a high quality shooter, for sure. His shot has to be respected and I think I've made that clear. I'll also add one great shooting night does not make him an all american.

He is a good player, and can be very good on a given day, but there are a lot of good players around.

Sure, as long as you acknowledge UNC doesn't have anyone who has looked better this year

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Wheat may underestimate RK but I guarantee Ol Roy and the rest of the ninnies are sweating a little harder knowing that RK is on the court tonight. Or maybe Wheat is just baiting you guys...

[El_Diablo]

I don't think Wheat's far off in his description. I do, however, think Ryan is a better defender this year than in the past (and has played "stronger" this year than in the past) but can understand if an outsider hasn't really noticed the improvement.

[Saratoga2]

Its the third ranked team in the country versus an unranked team. Game over.

Don't count on rankings. We should win but the argument doesn't necessarily follow.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Wheat may underestimate RK but I guarantee Ol Roy and the rest of the ninnies are sweating a little harder knowing that RK is on the court tonight. Or maybe Wheat is just baiting you guys...

Underestimate? I don't think I'm doing that. RK can beat you, if you underestimate him. The kid can flat out shoot.

I'm just saying he can be defended, and he's going to have trouble defending.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Sure, as long as you acknowledge UNC doesn't have anyone who has looked better this year

UNC does not have a 3pt shooter that has shot it better from deep.

[Bluedog]

In that guy's defense, he's right that unranked teams don't beat top five teams very often in this rivalry. As I posted earlier, in Coach K's time we have had 14 Duke/UNC games when one team was top five and the other unranked. The top five team won 13 out of 14 (the one being a 1990 UNC win over #5 Duke in Chapel Hill). So, it can happen but the odds are stacked against it.



I can tell you haven't watched much of Ryan Kelly this season. For example, he held Deshaun Thomas well below his averages in both points and rebounds, and Thomas is a much better player than either Bullock or Hairston, and probably McAdoo too. Ryan is not a "tweener" in college. He's a plus defender at this level, against both big, strong guys and smaller, quicker ones.

How many of those games have been close?

Forget about what games ended up being close...how many of those matchups had the top 5 team as the UNDERDOG according to Vegas? Carolina is currently favored by 2 points. They have been playing really well as of late and we better be ready for a barn burner or else we'll get run out of the gym. This game will NOT be easy. Need to play well and play hard to earn the win in Chapel Hill tonight. Go to Hell Carolina!!! Let's do this!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Underestimate? I don't think I'm doing that. RK can beat you, if you underestimate him. The kid can flat out shoot.

I'm just saying he can be defended, and he's going to have trouble defending.

You're missing the point about Ryan entirely. He is a good individual defender. But he makes our TEAM defense MUCH better. And you guys didn't see that the first time around.

You've also painted him as an avg offensive player who can have good night nights but can be defended. Almost anyone can be defended if you focus enough on them. But again it's what Ryan does to improve our overall TEAM offensive effort.

Like I said, I guarantee Roy et al are worried as hell about Duke with RK on the floor. You can guard against "athletic" but you can't guard against "smart" and that's the unseen element with RK.

[Duvall]

There are few things on this board funnier than Wheat's total contempt for any Duke player taller than 6'8".

[DoubleDuke Dad]

Underestimate? I don't think I'm doing that. RK can beat you, if you underestimate him. The kid can flat out shoot.

I'm just saying he can be defended, and he's going to have trouble defending.

Wheat, you act as if this game is a slam dunk for UNC. If I were you I wouldn't light up my cigar just yet.

It appears that most (all?) UNC fans are manic-depressive. Either they think that UNC is going to be slaughtered or that they can't lose.