MBB: Duke @ UNC Pre-Game and In-Game thread

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

A formality I suppose, but let's dig into it.

Go Duke!

[dahntaysdawg]

A formality I suppose, but let's dig into it.

Go Duke!

I'm surprised it took this long to get this thread going. I have a lot of anxiety about this game, but with a good amount of time to prepare I feel pretty good. They dumped the 4 guard starting rotation on us last time, I can't imagine Roy having any more wrinkles to throw out there.

[davekay1971]

Actually, there's a lot to dissect about this game. Duke and UNC are very different teams than they were in the first meeting. UNC has played several games in their new faux-Duke lineup, while Duke has got RK back.

The first question for me: How does Roy defend RK being back. Duke is a bigger team with RK, but at the same time spreads the court more with him. Roy's lineup of Strickland, Paige, Hairston, Bullock, and McAdoo would probably have Bullock on RK, McAdoo on Mason. In the second half of the last game, Mason just pounded McAdoo in the paint and JMM had no answer when Mase got him on the low post. And that was with Duke being unable to spread the court as well. With RK back, McAdoo is even less likely to get help defending Mase. Is Roy going to go bigger, then, to try to defend Mase? Or will he stick with the small-ball and hope McAdoo does a better job holding his own? I suspect, given the success UNC has had with their smaller linup, we're going to see Roy stick with it to start the game, then get some bigs in there if Duke is able to take advantage of the mismatch.

The second question: With RK back, does Duke had as much advantage over UNC's top scoring threats as I think? Sulaimon is perfectly built to defend Hairston, and I suspect that will be his primary defensive assignment. Similarly, Kelly has 3 inches on Bullock and Bullock's not fast enough to just go around him to the hoop. Kelly should be able to really bother Bullock's shot. Finally, JMM is hopeless doing anything other than dunks/drives/putbacks. If Mase stays home on him, he should be able to contain him nicely...unless JMM's developed a mid-range jumper in the last 3 days. Paige is a streaky shooter (his overall percentages are unimpressive), so Cook needs to stay on him AND prevent penetration - a nice challenge for Quinn and something he needs to step up to.

UNC, to their credit, is a better rebounding team than Duke despite the size issues. RK seemed to take Duke's rebounding deficiencies personally, so hopefully we'll start to see both our bigs working to control the glass. If UNC isn't getting second chances, they may have trouble keeping up.

[UrinalCake]

Lots of matchup problems both ways, all over the court. Inside we've got the bigger Mason going against the smaller and quicker mcAdoo. How will they guard each other? Ryan and PJ Hairston are also totally different players and it will be interesting to see how they guard each other and whether one team can force the other to have to adjust to their style.

In the backcourt UNC is the team with the size advantage. Suliamon will probably be guarding Bullock with Seth guarding Strickland (does he start?). We've struggled against teams with bigger guards so this will be a challenge.

Overall I'm expecting a tight game with lots of momentum swings. In an ironic twist of fate, it may come down to how well UNC shoots threes (and how well we defend them). In the first game they were 5-18 and lost by 5. Hit a couple more, plus some free throws, and it's a different outcome.

[AGDukesky]

On paper Duke should win but two key stats seem to make the difference in UNC winning lately - 3-point shooting and turnovers. UNC has needed a significant edge in one (or both) to win. In the last Duke game, its last defeat, Duke had a slight edge in 3-point shooting but lost the turnover battle by four. Of course, Duke typically plays worse on the road and UNC better at home (I know, shocking revelation for all teams). If Duke protects the ball and shoots a reasonable 3-point % then I don't think there is much UNC can do to get an advantage other than hope our defensive rebounding is non-existent (not as far-fetched as I would hope). I'm never optimistic at Chapel Hill unless the disparity between the teams is fairly large. However, this feels like one that would be really disappointing to lose since my main hope for most of the conference season was to have Kelly back for this game and able to contribute...

[Matches]

We need Mason to play like he is capable. UNC's guards match up well with ours and Bullock even has the potential to disrupt Kelly somewhat, but UNC has no answer for Mason defensively. if he's on, they're in trouble.

[freshmanjs]

Interesting that home court advantage does not seem to mean much in this series, where it means SO much in the rest of ACC play. In the last 20 matchups, the home team is 10-10. I really can't see why that would be the case unless travel is actually a bigger part of the reason for road difficulties than I thought.

[MCFinARL]

Interesting that home court advantage does not seem to mean much in this series, where it means SO much in the rest of ACC play. In the last 20 matchups, the home team is 10-10. I really can't see why that would be the case unless travel is actually a bigger part of the reason for road difficulties than I thought.

Well, it does have to be a lot easier to have a "road" game that is literally up the road, so you don't have long travel time, etc. And it may also be that the intense nature of this particular rivalry puts a lot of pressure on the home team that offsets some of the typical home court advantage.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I like UNC in this one, but they will need to do a few things...

1)Continue to take care of the ball, they've been much better in the small line up.
2) look to attack the basket, especially McAdoo and Paige. That puts pressure on Mason defensively, and the likelihood of foul trouble for Mason rises.
3)make the open looks, they will get them.
4)never ease up guarding Curry. He will likely be the difference maker if Duke wins, not Kelly.
5) do not double Mason, I want the ball in his hands, play fundamental D and live with his game, look to draw offensive fouls, he makes a lot of mistakes with the ball.
6) deny/challenge the ball and face up set shot by Kelly, hello team, he can make 'em, Bullock takes him.

[timmy c]

UNC has won it's last six games since going small. The few times I've seen them, they have considerably improved. They are quicker on the break, getting better shot selection and getting more minutes for their best offensive players, Bullock and Hairston.

Duke is going to have to have great games from several key players to walk away the victor.

[Troublemaker]

Last time UNC had the extra day to prepare. This time Duke does.
Last time UNC sprung their smallball on us (and the world) for the very first time. This time there will be no surprise.
Last time the player we are undefeated with did not suit up. This time he plays.

Pressure psychology will be very different as well.
A team that has "no chance" to win can play more freely and easily. That was UNC at Cameron. This time, UNC and their fans expect to win. There's equal to more pressure on them now.
This is perhaps paradoxical to my last point, but prior to the last matchup, UNC's previous memory of playing Duke was their demolition of us at Cameron last season. They had the best of both worlds -- no pressure to win AND the confidence that they could; Bullock and Hairston played with the "we killed you last time" verve (to use a favorite Coach K word). This time they know they were outplayed in the last meeting after we adjusted to their smallball.
This time, they are playing not to get swept in front of their fans. Whole different ball of wax.

At least there will be no Senior Night pressure because no one gives a crap about Dexter Strickland.

[Bob Green]

I like UNC in this one...

Shocking! I'm glad I was sitting down when I read your revelation.

The keys to the game will be:

1. Guarding the 3 PT line. Both teams have the ability to light it up from downtown.
2. Taking care of the basketball. Carolina has excelled converting turnovers into points with their small line-up.
3. Foul trouble. Neither team can afford to have their starters riding the pine.

Oh, and by the way, I like Duke in this one...

[DukeAlumBS]

My frriends,
I love your points especially the psychology approach to this game. I am gonna make this very easy on all of you. The weatherman predicted 1 inch of snow. I have 1-2 feet of it! Stay out of upstate NY.
I see Duke clicking in this game with Kelly in. There is a nice article in another forum about Kelly, and how he affects teams done by a sports writer who is in the know. I am sure you saw it here. I think we will win this one nicely in UNC/CH. And will continue their wins this year. I am going all out on this team.

Have nice day, stay out of NY and Boston !

Jimmy

[ikiru36]

At least there will be no Senior Night pressure because no one gives a crap about Dexter Strickland.

While the above is pretty hilariously true, there is a history of some fairly unsung Seniors (on both sides) stepping up in these games so beware taunting on that issue too much beforehand. Just sayin. :0)

Go Duke!!! Go Devils!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[timmy c]

Last time UNC had the extra day to prepare. This time Duke does.
Last time UNC sprung their smallball on us (and the world) for the very first time. This time there will be no surprise.
Last time the player we are undefeated with did not suit up. This time he plays.

Pressure psychology will be very different as well.
A team that has "no chance" to win can play more freely and easily. That was UNC at Cameron. This time, UNC and their fans expect to win. There's equal to more pressure on them now.
This is perhaps paradoxical to my last point, but prior to the last matchup, UNC's previous memory of playing Duke was their demolition of us at Cameron last season. They had the best of both worlds -- no pressure to win AND the confidence that they could; Bullock and Hairston played with the "we killed you last time" verve (to use a favorite Coach K word). This time they know they were outplayed in the last meeting after we adjusted to their smallball.
This time, they are playing not to get swept in front of their fans. Whole different ball of wax.

At least there will be no Senior Night pressure because no one gives a crap about Dexter Strickland.

Interesting analysis. You've identified several psychology barriers for success but you haven't mentioned the psychological boost a young team gets from playing at home. UNC is 8-1 at home with the only loss coming to Miami, by 6. In addition, UNC's best non-conference win came at home against UNLV.

[Wander]

Play physical. Post up Kelly and Mason and make UNC pay for their small lineup. Carolina sucks at getting opponents into foul trouble.

[Dev11]

While the above is pretty hilariously true, there is a history of some fairly unsung Seniors (on both sides) stepping up in these games so beware taunting on that issue too much beforehand. Just sayin. :0)

Go Duke!!! Go Devils!!!!!! GTHCGTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So we're looking at Todd's first double-double?

[Bob Green]

If Mase stays home on him, he should be able to contain him nicely...unless JMM's developed a mid-range jumper in the last 3 days.

Excellent analysis overall, but I disagree slightly re JMM and his jumpshot. I've watched a lot of Carolina basketball this season and I've observed JMM make the turn around/face up jumper. His range is probably only 8-10 feet where he needs to be able to make that shot out to 12-15 feet to be truly effecticve, but JMM can knockdown a jumpshot.

With Kelly playing, we know Duke will effectively spread the court so I am hopeful we will pound the ball inside to Mason and force JMM to play low post defense. In that scenario, I believe it is a matter of "how soon" JMM is in foul trouble rather than "if" he is in foul trouble. With Kelly's excellent passing skills, I believe an effective high-low game will benefit Duke tremendously.

As an addendum to my earlier posted keys, add foul shooting. It isn't good enough to get to the line, it is necessary to make the bonus shots.

[Lar77]

My frriends,
I love your points especially the psychology approach to this game. I am gonna make this very easy on all of you. The weatherman predicted 1 inch of snow. I have 1-2 feet of it! Stay out of upstate NY.
I see Duke clicking in this game with Kelly in. There is a nice article in another forum about Kelly, and how he affects teams done by a sports writer who is in the know. I am sure you saw it here. I think we will win this one nicely in UNC/CH. And will continue their wins this year. I am going all out on this team.

Have nice day, stay out of NY and Boston !

Jimmy

I got out of Boston just in time yesterday. That was all before the snow accumulated and the winds picked up

On the coming storm tomorrow night, I see it as a typical UNC-Duke game. On paper (and eyeball), they cannot match up well. Plumlee is clearly superior to McaWho and with Kelly in (assuming Hairston is on him) they can't double Mason or put Hairston on Seth. Quinn is better than Paige, who is not too quick. And then there is Rasheed. Defensively, we can guard the 3s. Our only risk is their aggressiveness on passes leading to breaks (which they do well).

However, paper doesn't beat scissors or win games. We need a major effort from our starters and our three main bench players. Will Ryan continue his otherworldly play (averaging 27 in last 2 and 26 in the last 3, including Clemson)? Will Seth continue his outstanding play? Can we close out better than we did against Miami? Will we be as off as we were at the start of Vatech?

We know who they are. It's time to rip their hearts out so it will be easier to get tickets to the ACC.

[Billy Dat]

Watzone has a nice string of tweets covering K's pre-game presser over on Twitter

@BlueDevilNation