MBB: Duke vs Miami Pre-Game & In-Game Thread

[CDu]

OK, I think we're arguing semantics here, but is Swoope at 6'6 really an option at center against Mason? Frankly, if he's in and we need to give Mason a rest, we could just go with Josh at center, and we'd still have a size advantage at the position. And if Kadji is playing center Miami is giving up their biggest advantage (because he's not playing PF against Amile or Josh or Alex). So basically, Miami has two guys to play center plus a third guy to play a few minutes and use a few fouls. If Ryan plays (and I'm assuming he won't, but if we meet Miami again in the ACCT, I assume he will), we have pretty much the same thing.

If Swoope is in, Kadji is probably at C. My point is that Miami can constantly have a 6'9+, veteran, productive player on the floor at all times. And they have the depth to have a second 6'9"+, veteran, productive player on the court for most of the game. And they have the depth behind that to make sure their first three are fresh, whereas we don't have any kind of depth to rest him.

[-bdbd]

Here are my questions for Saturday's game:
[*]Which Miami team will show up? The one that sluaghtered us last time or the one that got blown out by Wake?

Miami has certainly been inconsistent in the last few weeks. Remember that there was more than just the Wake game where they could have lost. I would agree with licc85 that it should fall in the middle, but point out that there is some potential here for them to get discouraged quickly if things don't flow their way early.
[*]

[*]Which Duke team will show up? The team that won seven ACC home games by an average of 17 points or the team that struggled against Maryland, Virginia, Miami and State on the road?

Who ever really knows with these things? But all of the indicators are for a very focused, determined, (angry?) Duke team to be in attendance Sat. night in CIS. The way the UVA game flowed - lots of frustration there - and then the taunting/floor-slapping blow-out in Miami in January, plus the now-importance of this game in the ACC standings for us (less so for Miami obviously)... I just can't imagine them not being fired up for Miami. Perhaps the only real danger is the team being a little over-amped...
[*]

[*]Will Rasheed rebound from a poor outing against UVa?

That will be interesting to see. I think he will get a lot of coaching attention between now and then though, so I'd learn towards something positive. Would be a really good time to see some Senior leadership put in an appearance.
[*]

[*]Will Ryan (a) play and (b) be a factor?

I don't think it matters. As lcc85 said, he won't play a lot, even if he does play (less than ten minutes max), as the big prize is still coming in late-March.
[*]

[*]Will it be raining threes for Duke?

No doubt that we will be shooting the three a lot. It'll be interesting to see the level of D/effort Miami plays throughout, however, especially if they get down. This has not been a consistent-effort team lately, and their "mature" players will clearly be aware that this game doesn't really matter for them anymore.


I'm looking for an intense game, very possibly a preview of the ACC Championship game in Greensboro a couple weeks later. Get psyched Duke!
Crazies, better bring that A-game to this one!!

[throatybeard]

Being 2nd or 5th does not matter too much for the ACC tourney as everyone in that group is pretty even on a neutral floor.

Um, no. Second, third, fourth, perhaps not a lot of difference.

Fifth means you don't get a bye, have to play on Thursday, and have to win four games.

I don't particularly like the 3-seed, either, as it means you don't get finished on Friday until around Midnight East.

[CDu]

Um, no. Second, third, fourth, perhaps not a lot of difference.

Fifth means you don't get a bye, have to play on Thursday, and have to win four games.

I don't particularly like the 3-seed, either, as it means you don't get finished on Friday until around Midnight East.

I'd argue that #2 and #3 are somewhat similar. #4 is worse in that you'd have to face Miami in the semis, and you'll be stuck playing one of the other 5 good teams (there's a dropoff after 5) on Friday. #5 is even worse, as you'd have to play Thursday, and THEN play the same tough route as the #4 seed.

#4 is certainly closer in difficulty to #3 than #5, but I'd say there's a big drop in preference after #3.

[Bob Green]

Duke opens in Vegas as a 5.5 points favorite. The over/under has not yet been posted.

[dukelifer]

Um, no. Second, third, fourth, perhaps not a lot of difference.

Fifth means you don't get a bye, have to play on Thursday, and have to win four games.

I don't particularly like the 3-seed, either, as it means you don't get finished on Friday until around Midnight East.

Yes- the 5th seed would not be good unless you are a UConn and ride the momentum of 4 games to an NCAA championship.

[Kedsy]

Yes- the 5th seed would not be good unless you are a UConn and ride the momentum of 4 games to an NCAA championship.

Of course UConn was actually the 9th seed in the 2011 Big East tournament, and had to win five BET games before getting to the NCAAT, but I understand your point.

[dukelifer]

Of course UConn was actually the 9th seed in the 2011 Big East tournament, and had to win five BET games before getting to the NCAAT, but I understand your point.

Duke usually rides an ACC championship to a sweet 16 or better, but with the gimpy Curry and Kelly- not sure it is worth playing more than two games, whatever the seed. Strange strange year.

[cptnflash]

Duke usually rides an ACC championship to a sweet 16 or better, but with the gimpy Curry and Kelly- not sure it is worth playing more than two games, whatever the seed. Strange strange year.

Winning is always worth the effort. Always.

[Troublemaker]

Duke opens in Vegas as a 5.5 points favorite. The over/under has not yet been posted.

Up to 6.5 now. This smells like an easy win coming.

[cptnflash]

Up to 6.5 now. This smells like an easy win coming.

We'll win tomorrow. Book it.

But also, no matter how good we look tomorrow, forget about it immediately, whether Ryan plays or not. Tomorrow's game is special, and has no bearing on what we're capable of / will or will not achieve / where our ceiling or floor is come the postseason. OK? Please everyone, do not overreact and start making reservations for Atlanta when we tear Miami a new one tomorrow evening.

[jipops]

We'll win tomorrow. Book it.

But also, no matter how good we look tomorrow, forget about it immediately, whether Ryan plays or not. Tomorrow's game is special, and has no bearing on what we're capable of / will or will not achieve / where our ceiling or floor is come the postseason. OK? Please everyone, do not overreact and start making reservations for Atlanta when we tear Miami a new one tomorrow evening.

I totally agree. We already have an idea of what we are without Ryan and what we may/may not be capable of. What we don't know now is what kind of team we'll be with Ryan back. And I'm not banking on us knowing much about that tomorrow, whether he plays or not. It's going to be a process.

We could go nuts and just start nailing 3's and Miami lays an egg. We could come out mentally drained and Miami beats us up.

[Troublemaker]

Before yesterday I was bummed that Duke would not finish 2nd but now I am resigned that they are likely to finish 3 or 4th as the teams ahead have more favorable schedules.

FYI, Pomeroy still has Duke projected to finish 2nd with a 13-5 record. I think that is still the most likely scenario (in fact, I think we finish 14-4). 3rd and 4th (and some say 5th) are still possibilities, but 2nd is still most likely, imo.

[dukelifer]

FYI, Pomeroy still has Duke projected to finish 2nd with a 13-5 record. I think that is still the most likely scenario (in fact, I think we finish 14-4). 3rd and 4th (and some say 5th) are still possibilities, but 2nd is still most likely, imo.

Hope you are right. I will be in Cameron tomorrow.

[NashvilleDevil]

Tweet from Jeff Goodman:

"Not 100 percent, but hearing that Duke's Ryan Kelly is leaning towards returning tomorrow against Miami - source told CBSSports."

[cptnflash]

Tweet from Jeff Goodman:

"Not 100 percent, but hearing that Duke's Ryan Kelly is leaning towards returning tomorrow against Miami - source told CBSSports."

Isn't this the same guy that originated the "2 to 4 weeks" prognosis when Ryan first got injured? At work we would call this guy noise, rather than signal.

[NashvilleDevil]

Isn't this the same guy that originated the "2 to 4 weeks" prognosis when Ryan first got injured? At work we would call this guy noise, rather than signal.

And if he plays tomorrow what is he then?

[Troublemaker]

Have to think Ryan will at least check-in to the game at some point for a Willis-Reed style 2-minute stint.

Hopefully he can play more than that. Hopefully it'll be 10-15 minutes, but even if it's just 2 minutes, seeing him at the scorer's table will energize the building and the team.

We're playing on shorter rest than Miami, but a well-timed Ryan-at-the-scorer's-table energy boost will erase that advantage. Every other intangible belongs to Duke (e.g. Why does Miami even care about this game?). Ryan for two minutes, and Duke wins easily.

[devildeac]

Tweet from Jeff Goodman:

"Not 100 percent, but hearing that Duke's Ryan Kelly is leaning towards returning tomorrow against Miami - source told CBSSports."

shh, don't tell Larranaga...

[cptnflash]

And if he plays tomorrow what is he then?

In that case, Goodman would most definitely be confirming his status as noise, not signal. If Ryan doesn't play tomorrow, we may be able to begin thinking about Goodman as a contrary indicator, which is marginally more useful. But it would take a significantly larger sample size before I'd be ready to pile into the "fade Goodman" trade in any size.