Let's talk ACC tourney seeding

[CDu]

Well, we're down to the final 4 games of the ACC schedule for all but 2 teams (neither of whom are threats to get a bye). So I feel it's reasonable to take a look at seeding for the tournament.

#1: Miami (13-1) is a virtual lock for a #1 seed. To lose that #1 spot, they'd need to lose at Duke, lose two more games (they'd have any reasonable tiebreaker over us), and have us win out. Aside from the Duke game, their remaining games are all at home and all against weaker conference opponents who haven't done well on the road this year (GT, VT, Clemson). So I feel comfortable saying that they're going to be the #1 seed.

#2: Duke (11-3) leads by two games. We have by far the toughest schedule the rest of the way, though. @UVa, vs Miami, vs VT, and @UNC. Fortunately, we've built enough of a cushion that we should hang on to the #2 seed. But the game tomorrow is incredibly important. If we beat UVa, that eliminates both UVa and NC State from the #2 seed (as we'd then have the tiebreaker over both of them) and would hold the tiebreaker over UNC. If we win tomorrow and beat VT at home, then we lock up the #2 seed (as we'd then be assured of no worse than the same record as UNC). We'd still control our own destiny even with a loss to UVa, but then we'd almost certainly need to beat either Miami or (probably more importantly) UNC. So we can do ourselves a huge favor by "just" winning in Charlottesville.

#3: Right now, UVa (9-5) is the #3 seed, in a tie with UNC (one game ahead of NC State) but ahead in the tiebreaker by virtue of beating NC State in their only matchup. They have the tough game tomorrow and then a relatively light schedule the rest of the way (@BC, @FSU, Maryland). BC is tough at home and Maryland can be dangerous, but the 'Hoos should win those games. If they do that, they'll likely be the #3 seed. I say likely because UNC could conceivably win out, but that is not likely to occur (more on that in a bit).

#4: Right now, UNC (9-5) is the #4 seed, tied with UVa and one game ahead of NC State. If they win out, they have an outside shot at the #2 seed, but most likely would be the #3 seed (they'd need help from Duke to get to #2). But UNC's schedule is pretty tough. They play at Clemson (could be tough), vs FSU, @Maryland (should be tough), and vs Duke (obviously tough). They could easily go 2-2, which would almost certainly bump them to #5.

#5: Right now, NC State (8-6; ahead of Maryland by 1 game). They have, by far, the easiest remaining schedule of the top half of the conference, as they play no games against teams in the upper tier. They should go 4-0, but could always drop one of their road games @GT and @FSU. If they go 4-0, they'd likely wind up in 4th (unless UVa stumbles in one of their easier games).

#6: Maryland (7-7) is in 6th, 0.5 games up on FSU. They have what should be (for them) a tough schedule: @GT, @Wake, vs UNC, @UVa. They could very easily fall to 7th if one of the lower-tier teams steps up, but I'd lean towards them hanging on to the #6 spot.

#7: FSU (7-8) is in 7th, 1.5 games up on Clemson. They have (for them) a tough schedule as well: @UNC, vs UVa, vs NC State. Fortunately for them, though, they have a sufficient cushion that they'll likely hold off Clemson.

As we are the #2 seed and the #8-12 teams aren't very good, I'm not going to waste my time talking about them. I really was going to stop after Maryland, but FSU is just close enough that I felt it necessary to include them.

If I had my druthers, I'd want UVa to finish 3rd (with us 2nd). That way we'd avoid playing either Miami, UNC, or NC State until the finals if we get there. Winning tomorrow would go a LONG way toward securing that #2 seed.

[hurleyfor3]

I'm happy with us a 2 and unc on the 4/5 side. I'm not sure they have any kind of answer for Miami, and they might lose to someone else anyway. So would I be happy if we lost to UVa in order to make it harder for unc to be #3? Ugh.

Someone who cares more should fully analyze the uva/unc tiebreaker scenarios. I'm guessing if we beat uva and lose @unc, the tiebreaker almost certainly goes to unc.

[CDu]

I'm happy with us a 2 and unc on the 4/5 side. I'm not sure they have any kind of answer for Miami, and they might lose to someone else anyway. So would I be happy if we lost to UVa in order to make it harder for unc to be #3? Ugh.

Someone who cares more should fully analyze the uva/unc tiebreaker scenarios. I'm guessing if we beat uva and lose @unc, the tiebreaker almost certainly goes to unc.

Yes, if we beat UVa and UNC beats us (and UVa and UNC end up with the same record), UNC would have the tiebreaker regardless, as they'd have a better record against us (1-1) than would UVa (0-1).

However, if we beat UVa and UNC, UVa would have the tiebreaker by beating State in their only matchup with State (unless Maryland passes State, which is unlikely). That's the scenario I want to see play out: Duke wins out, UVa goes 3-1. Duke gets the 2 seed, UVa gets the 3 seed, UNC and State get to deal with each other and then Miami.

[nocilla]

I think I would prefer having UNC as the 3 instead of UVA. I agree that having NCSU on Miami's side is good. I don't think UNC will move up to the #3 spot anyway, but I like the matchup better. UVA plays a unique style that can frustrate a team. I think Duke matches up very well with UNC's small lineup because it seems to fit Coach K's style. In our first meeting UNC caught us off guard, but once Coach K adjusted we pulled ahead. Coach K was able to put Thornton in for Hairston/Jefferson and we didn't have to worry about a size disadvantage. Coach K seems to like playing with a small lineup so it just seems to be Duke's advantage when another team plays our style. Of course Ryan Kelly changes things, but I think he would do okay matched up with Bullock or PJ. And he probably won't play big minutes anyway.

I also would enjoy the opportunity of beating UNC 3 times in one season.

Of course my opinion may change based on how our regular season games play out against UVA and UNC. If we beat UVA easily and struggle with UNC, then I will certainly reconsider.

[UrinalCake]

Thanks Cdu for the awesome breakdown. Is there any conceivable way it could end up as Miami-Duke-UVA-nc state as the 1-4? That's what I want. state has played Miami the closest of anyone (except Wake) and stands the best chance of beating them IMO. That scenario would give us our best chance of winning it all.

I suppose there is the line of reasoning that says we WANT to play the better team because a win would strengthen our resume and therefore our chance at a #1 seed, but Id rather have the easier path and thus greater likelihood of winning.

[CDu]

Thanks Cdu for the awesome breakdown. Is there any conceivable way it could end up as Miami-Duke-UVA-nc state as the 1-4? That's what I want. state has played Miami the closest of anyone (except Wake) and stands the best chance of beating them IMO. That scenario would give us our best chance of winning it all.

I suppose there is the line of reasoning that says we WANT to play the better team because a win would strengthen our resume and therefore our chance at a #1 seed, but Id rather have the easier path and thus greater likelihood of winning.

Yes, there is certainly a chance of a Miami/Duke/UVa/State ordering. It would happen if the following happens:
- we beat UVa and UNC (or we beat Miami and UNC and lose to UVa)
- State wins out
- UVa wins its remaining games
- UNC loses another game (not necessary if we lose to UVa)

There are other routes to the same outcome (basically involving all three of UVa, State, and UNC losing games), but these two are the least complicated and most likely scenarios.

[hurleyfor3]

What if we end up tied with uva and/or unc... because we lose to both of them?

If it's a tie with just uva, we lose the head-to-head.

If it's a three-way tie, you form a mini-conference of just those three teams: Uva 2-1, Unc 2-2, us 1-2. Crap.

If it's a tie with just unc it gets more complicated, and probably depends on results of other unplayed games.

So we probably end up fourth. We can do even worse than that, but if we finish 1-3 tournament seeding will be the least of our problems.

[CDu]

What if we end up tied with uva and/or unc... because we lose to both of them?

If it's a tie with just uva, we lose the head-to-head.

If it's a three-way tie, you form a mini-conference of just those three teams: Uva 2-1, Unc 2-2, us 1-2. Crap.

If it's a tie with just unc it gets more complicated, and probably depends on results of other unplayed games.

So we probably end up fourth. We can do even worse than that, but if we finish 1-3 tournament seeding will be the least of our problems.

If we lose to both UNC and UVa (and those two don't lose any other games), we will be fourth. We'd have the worst combined head-to-head record in that scenario.

If we tie with just UNC, then it comes down to whether or not we win against UVa/Miami. UNC would have the tiebreaker over us if we lose to UVa and Miami (they beat UVa once). If we beat Miami, we have any tiebreaker over UNC. If we beat UVa, we have virtually any tiebreaker over UNC (only if Maryland somehow sneaks ahead of UVa without beating UNC would UNC get the edge).

If we tie with just UVa, then the game tomorrow will be the tiebreaker.

[Olympic Fan]

Personally, I think the most likely scenario is:

No. 1 Miami (agree that they are almost a lock)

No. 2 Duke (not a lock, but likely)

No. 3 UNC (the way they are playing, I give them the edge over Virginia)

No. 4 Virginia

No. 5 NC State (while they have an easier schedule left, I'm betting they loe one or two on the road)

Between 4-5, it doesn't really matter for Duke ... although obviously it means a lot for the one that gets fourth (and the bye), rather than the one that gets fifth and probably has to open against Virginia Tech in the tournament on Thursday.

No. 6 Maryland

No. 7 FSU


Under that scenario, Duke will probably open Friday against Maryland ... I would LOVE another shot at those guys on a neutral court and with us having the edge in rest.

As for the prospect of either Virginia-UNC-NC State in the semifinals ... I'd prefer seeing Virginia -- check their record -- they have been signifricasntly better at home than away from C'ville. If UNC happens to beat Duke in the finale, I wouldn't mind meeting the Heels in the semifinals -- it almost always seems like wheneber we split with them and they win the finale at home, we could back and beat them in the tournament (it happened in 1980, 1984, 2003, 2011) ...

[jimsumner]

As for the prospect of either Virginia-UNC-NC State in the semifinals ... I'd prefer seeing Virginia -- check their record -- they have been signifricasntly better at home than away from C'ville. If UNC happens to beat Duke in the finale, I wouldn't mind meeting the Heels in the semifinals -- it almost always seems like wheneber we split with them and they win the finale at home, we could back and beat them in the tournament (it happened in 1980, 1984, 2003, 2011) ...

Duke did not split with UNC in either 1980 or 1984. UNC won both regular-season games in both of those seasons. Duke beat UNC in the 1979-80 Big Four. But that's a different kettle of fish.

[CDu]

Maryland just did State (and to a lesser degree UNC and UVa) a favor by losing to Georgia Tech. They are now 2 games behind State and 3 losses behind UVa and UNC, virtually eliminating them from the top 5. In fact, they're now in 7th because they lost both games to FSU. With 3 tough games remaining (@Wake, vs UNC, and @UVa), they could very possibly stay in 7th (it'll be tough for Clemson to overtake them with games vs UNC and @Miami).

State won at home against BC, virtually locking up a top-5 spot. I won't be at all surprised if they wind up 4th in the conference.

[UrinalCake]

Here's a sort-of-relevant question: how much does the Selection committee consider the "revenge" factor when determining seeds? If we lose to a team but then come back and beat them later, do they put less weight on the loss? If so, then we definitely want to play (and of course beat) Maryland and NC State during the ACCT. we already get another shot at Miami this weekend.

Ryan coming back and us beating these opponents would go even further towards convincing them that our earlier losses can be safely disregarded 8-)

[Olympic Fan]

Here's a sort-of-relevant question: how much does the Selection committee consider the "revenge" factor when determining seeds? If we lose to a team but then come back and beat them later, do they put less weight on the loss? If so, then we definitely want to play (and of course beat) Maryland and NC State during the ACCT. we already get another shot at Miami this weekend.

Ryan coming back and us beating these opponents would go even further towards convincing them that our earlier losses can be safely disregarded 8-)

Well, the members of the committee are human and they can be influenced by a number of things, but there is no "revenge" criteria for the committee to consider.

However, there IS a criteria regarding injuries. A team is supposed to be rated according to its level entering the tournament. Lose a great player on the eve of the tournament and the committee is supposed to downgrade you. Get a great player back just before the tournament and the committee is suppoosed to downgrade to some degree the losses suffered when he was out.

But for that to happen, the injured player has to demonstrate thast he's back to full speed ... Kelly will have 1-2 regular season games and 1-3 ACC Tournament games to convince the committee that he's back ... and that Duke is once again the team that went 15-0 against the nation's toughest schedule.

[UrinalCake]

That's what I want - beat Miami, Kelly comes back healthy, we avenge all our losses and show the committee (and all our opponents) that Duke is back at full strength and ready to roll some heads!

Also I know we have very little chance of a #1 seed in the ACCT but it's not out of the realm if possibility that we could still share the mythical regular season championship. We'd have to win out and get an unexpected loss from Miami, but it would be pretty impressive for this team to do that given the Kelly injury.

[CDu]

So much for eliminating UVa and State from the race for the #2 seed last night. Now we have to win out to guarantee the #2 seed (because UVa has the tiebreaker over us).

One silver lining? Losing this game makes it very difficult for UNC to get the #2 or #3 seed. The Heels have a much tougher schedule the rest of the way than UVa, and UVa now definitely has the tiebreaker over UNC (by sweeping us and State).

But we probably need to win out to stay the #2 seed. And we'll probably need to beat UNC to stay in the top 3.

[gumbomoop]

But we probably need to win out to stay the #2 seed. And we'll probably need to beat UNC to stay in the top 3.

Ominous warnings, these.

Although of course Duke's goal has been to win the ACC regular season, that has been for at least 2 weeks a very big uphill climb. For example, even had Duke won last eve and wins Sat, Duke still would need both to win at CH and have Miami lose at home to either GT or Clemson.

So the real issue for a couple of weeks now has been - given Duke's tough end-of-ACC-schedule - whether Duke could win at UVa or UNC, and keep #2. Duke could still lose in CH but "back in" to #2:

• Duke - beats Miami and VT, loses to UNC - 13-5
• UNC beats FSU and Duke in CH, but loses at Md - 12-6
• UVa loses at either BC or FSU - 12-6
• NCSt can finish no better than 12-6

CDu's "probably's" are not quite the same as "probables." Wouldn't be so good to fall to #4 and in the bracket with NCSt and Miami. Assuming Duke beats VT, is it even possible Duke slides to #5?

Devils might still be in driver's seat for #2, but best to fasten seat belts for a bumpy finish.

[CDu]

CDu's "probably's" are not quite the same as "probables." Wouldn't be so good to fall to #4 and in the bracket with NCSt and Miami. Assuming Duke beats VT, is it even possible Duke slides to #5?

Devils might still be in driver's seat for #2, but best to fasten seat belts for a bumpy finish.

We would win the tiebreaker with NC State by virtue of our split with Maryland. Maybe there's a multi-team tiebreaker that could work against us, but that's pretty unlikely I think. So we'd basically have to lose out to end up 5th.

If we beat UNC, we would finish no worse than 3rd. That's true even if we lose both of the games against Miami and at VT. It's always a good goal to beat UNC, but at this point in the season that's especially true. And honestly, the difference between the #2 seed and the #3 seed in the ACC tournament probably isn't substantive. The difference between a #3 and a #4 is.

[Olympic Fan]

Frankly, there's little difference between 2 and 3 ...

Big difference after that.

The No. 4 seed puts you in the bracket with Miami, plus you have to play either UNC, Virginia or NC State in the quarterfinals on Friday ... then one of the others in the semifinals. THAT is a tough road.

The 5 seed is worse. It means a Thursday game with Virginia Tech (probably), a Friday game with one of UNC, UVa, N.C.State, then a Saturday game with Miami. By Sunday, if we get that far, Seth Curry's fragile leg would be hanging by a thread.

This team needs to lock up a 2 or 3 seed. I think winning the last two home games would do it -- I know there are probably mathematical permilations that could land us in 4th or 5th at 13-5, but I very doubt that happens in the real world. Now 12-6 (assuming only a home win over VPI) certainly opens that door.

[CDu]

This team needs to lock up a 2 or 3 seed. I think winning the last two home games would do it -- I know there are probably mathematical permilations that could land us in 4th or 5th at 13-5, but I very doubt that happens in the real world. Now 12-6 (assuming only a home win over VPI) certainly opens that door.

Actually, this is not quite right. If we beat Miami and VT and lose to UNC, we'll be 13-5. If UNC and UVa win out, they'll be 13-5. In a 3-way tie with UNC and UVa, we finish 3rd. So in that scenario, we'd be 4th. We cannot end up 5th with only 5 losses (State has 6 losses already in 5th).

The only sure-fire guarantee of finishing in the top 3 is to beat UNC (see below). If we do that, we're assured of at least the #3 seed, even if we lose to both Miami and VT at home. I don't think there's much chance we will lose to both Miami and VT, but the point is that those games are made meaningless by "simply" beating UNC.

Possible scenarios if we lose to Miami and VT but beat UNC:
- 2-way tie for 3rd with UNC: We'd have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
- 3-way tie for 2nd with UNC and UVa: we'd have the tiebreaker over UNC by going 2-1 head-to-head.
- 4-way tie for 2nd with UNC, UVa, and State: we'd have the tiebreaker over both UNC and State on head-to-head (we'd be 3-2, State 2-3, UNC 2-4, UVa 3-1).

Now, we could still finish 2 or 3 with a loss to UNC, but that requires UNC or UVa losing again. Better to just go ahead and beat UNC.

[cptnflash]

This is where the Terps become our friends. Their last two regular season games are at home against UNC, and on the road at Virginia. Assuming they don't lose tomorrow at Wake Forest (a dubious assumption, but let's go with it for now), the Terps will still have a sliver of a glimpse of a chance of a hope for an at-large bid going into the final week of the regular season. They should be desperate, and hopefully will play like it against the Tar Heels and the Hoos. Maybe they can give us a bit of breathing room. Of course we can make it all moot by winning our next 3 games, but with that being less than a 50% probability, I wouldn't mind a little help.