Bubble Rap 2013

[Kedsy]

But what about Iona?

Going into the Tournament last season, Iona had a #40 RPI and #57 Pomeroy rank. Based on those ratings, they had a much worse resume than MTSU this season (#29 RPI; #31 Pomeroy). Still, I'm not sure how much predictive power last year's Iona bid has. It really depends on the resumes of the other bubble teams.

[pfrduke]

ASU survives what could have been an elimination game for them - don't think they're anywhere close to safe yet.

Sad to see Stanford go down, although they had a furious rally to force overtime. They were my dark horse bet to win the Pac-12 tourney, as their scoring numbers looked a lot better than their win-loss record.

[Reilly]

MTSU #48 (2013)
Iona # 67 (2012)
VCU # 70 (2011)

Latter two numbers after season complete.

[Reilly]

Teams that ended up in the top 50 in the SRS at S-R that did not get an NCAA invite:

2012 (Stanford - 33, Ariz - 42, Wash - 43, Mia - 44, Minn - 45, UCLA - 46, SHall - 48, Oregon - 49)

2011 (MD - 24, VT - 32, St. M- 39, Wich St - 41, Wash St - 43, Minn - 46, NMex - 47, NU - 50)

2010 (ASU - 32, Dayton - 36, Miss St. - 40, UConn - 41, Memph - 48, VT - 49, Ill - 50)

17 of the 33 teams w/ a final SRS in the 40-50 range did not make the tourney ... 40s seems to be where it gets dicey ...

[pfrduke]

Is Minnesota a tournament team? They have great wins - Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan St. - and a few more decent ones - Memphis, Stanford, Illinois, Iowa - but they have 12 losses, including 7 of their last 10 games, and got beat by such impressive teams as Nebraska and Northwestern. Losing in the first round of the B1GT to Illinois (companion on the bubble) probably didn't help.

[JasonEvans]

Is Minnesota a tournament team? They have great wins - Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan St. - and a few more decent ones - Memphis, Stanford, Illinois, Iowa - but they have 12 losses, including 7 of their last 10 games, and got beat by such impressive teams as Nebraska and Northwestern. Losing in the first round of the B1GT to Illinois (companion on the bubble) probably didn't help.

I think the Golden Gophers are pretty safe. They are an up and down team, but they have been up enough to get a bid. Heck, I bet they get something like a #10 seed.

-Jason "their RPI is 24 and their SOS is #2. Pom has them #24 with the toughest schedule in the land. Plus, they have 3 wins over the RPI top 15... darn impressive" Evans

[CDu]

I think the Golden Gophers are pretty safe. They are an up and down team, but they have been up enough to get a bid. Heck, I bet they get something like a #10 seed.

-Jason "their RPI is 24 and their SOS is #2. Pom has them #24 with the toughest schedule in the land. Plus, they have 3 wins over the RPI top 15... darn impressive" Evans

Yeah, their RPI* is just so good that there would have to be a really good reason for the committee to leave them out. I don't think they're all that close to the bubble.

* As much as I hate RPI as a tool for rating teams, it still seems to be - by far - the tool most used by the committee each year.

[tommy]

After blowing a 12 point lead with 10 minutes to go and losing to first team All-Pac 12 players Larry Drew and Shabazz Muhammad and UCLA, Arizona State is unquestionably now out.

Iowa State and Tennessee, who I thought were in pretty-to-very good shape coming into their conference tournaments, only look stronger with today's wins. Southern Mississippi won too, but they're still on the very outside of the bubble IMO. A LOT needs to happen for them to have any real shot at this point.

[JasonEvans]

Iowa State and Tennessee, who I thought were in pretty-to-very good shape coming into their conference tournaments, only look stronger with today's wins. Southern Mississippi won too, but they're still on the very outside of the bubble IMO. A LOT needs to happen for them to have any real shot at this point.

Lets be clear -- Tennessee beat a woefully bad Miss St team. A loss would have been disastrous. I am not sure a win means all that much other than it probably continues to keep them just barely on the good side of the bubble, as opposed to dropping off it (which a loss would have done).

Same thing for Southern Miss. I am fairly sure they are on the outside for now. Beating a bad UAB team means little. They really need to beat a decent UTEP club and then at least play a close game with Memphis in the Conf USA championship to have any hope of being in the dance.

Iowa State's win over Oklahoma is far more impressive. Iowa St is certainly in at this point. I wonder a little bit if that puts Oklahoma a tiny bit on the bubble. The Sooners are going to make it to the dance, but they are likely looking at a 11 or 12 seed, I suspect.

As an aside, does anyone else think Virginia needs to beat NC State to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday?

-Jason "Baylor, not even on the bubble right now, really needs to beat Okie St tonight to even be in the bubble conversation" Evans

[tommy]

As an aside, does anyone else think Virginia needs to beat NC State to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday?

I do. They're right on the bubble. I've gone over their numbers previously. Some really nice wins but just a lot of bad looking losses too. They're praying for no bid stealing to occur or else they're in serious trouble.

[OldPhiKap]

I do. They're right on the bubble. I've gone over their numbers previously. Some really nice wins but just a lot of bad looking losses too. They're praying for no bid stealing to occur or else they're in serious trouble.

UVa is clearly a team that has its destiny in its own hands. Win, they probably move on. Lose, can't blame anyone but themselves.

I like Bennett, and with Maryland leaving that leaves UVa as the big DC/Tidewater school. Hope they get whomever we don't get. Screw the Twerps.

But I digress.

[Nugget]

Lets be clear -- Tennessee beat a woefully bad Miss St team. A loss would have been disastrous. I am not sure a win means all that much other than it probably continues to keep them just barely on the good side of the bubble, as opposed to dropping off it (which a loss would have done).

Same thing for Southern Miss. I am fairly sure they are on the outside for now. Beating a bad UAB team means little. They really need to beat a decent UTEP club and then at least play a close game with Memphis in the Conf USA championship to have any hope of being in the dance.

Iowa State's win over Oklahoma is far more impressive. Iowa St is certainly in at this point. I wonder a little bit if that puts Oklahoma a tiny bit on the bubble. The Sooners are going to make it to the dance, but they are likely looking at a 11 or 12 seed, I suspect.

As an aside, does anyone else think Virginia needs to beat NC State to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday?

-Jason "Baylor, not even on the bubble right now, really needs to beat Okie St tonight to even be in the bubble conversation" Evans

Agree -- Tennessee's win just means they aren't disqualified - I'd think they were right about the cut line. They might not have to win tomorrow, but they'd be advised to do so.

Southern Miss has to at least get to the CUSA finals to even be in the discussion.

I think Oklahoma's numbers are too strong for them not to make it.

I think Virginia is on the outside looking in. I suspect they have to beat State to even stay in the discussion and probably that alone won't be enough. I think their 7 losses to teams outside the top 100 (no one else under consideration from the bubble has more than 3) and their cover-your-eyes awful non-conference SOS of #299 are just too obvious defects in their record for certain members of the Committee, even though they will have a few more top 50 wins than the teams they are being compared against. They really shot themselves in the foot by losing to BC and Florida St.

[wilson]

I think Virginia is on the outside looking in. I suspect they have to beat State to even stay in the discussion and probably that alone won't be enough. I think their 7 losses to teams outside the top 100 (no one else under consideration from the bubble has more than 3) and their cover-your-eyes awful non-conference SOS of #299 are just too obvious defects in their record for certain members of the Committee, even though they will have a few more top 50 wins than the teams they are being compared against. They really shot themselves in the foot by losing to BC and Florida St.

Agreed here. Virginia's resume this year (perhaps ironically) looks an awful lot to me like some of VA Tech's resumes in recent years, which featured some impressive wins that were outweighed by bad losses, aggregating in a poor overall schedule with not enough bright spots.

[wallyman]

Too bad awful Vandy team beat uneven Arkansas one for right to play Kentucky. An Arkansas win might have knocked Ky out of the NCAAT. Very unlikely Vandy can win, but would be a really bad UK loss if it happened.

[JasonEvans]

Question-- no way do La Tech or Denver get consideration for an at-large bid after losing in the WAC tourney, right? Denver is in the top 40 in Pomeroy's rankings but that is not going to be good enough, is it? Denver has one bad loss but all their other losses are to top 100 RPI teams... but they only have 3 Top 100 RPI wins and none over the top 50.

-Jason "naaah, neither one of them are making it" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Question-- no way do La Tech or Denver get consideration for an at-large bid after losing in the WAC tourney, right? Denver is in the top 40 in Pomeroy's rankings but that is not going to be good enough, is it? Denver has one bad loss but all their other losses are to top 100 RPI teams... but they only have 3 Top 100 RPI wins and none over the top 50.

-Jason "naaah, neither one of them are making it" Evans

By the way, Jerry Palm, in his daily bubble discussion, pointed out the following:

And the WAC got wacky with both top seeds Louisiana Tech and Denver losing. LT is almost certainly not an at-large team, but they have more good wins than Middle Tennessee State.

-Jason "I am telling ya, Middle Tenn ain't making it" Evans

[loran16]

Question-- no way do La Tech or Denver get consideration for an at-large bid after losing in the WAC tourney, right? Denver is in the top 40 in Pomeroy's rankings but that is not going to be good enough, is it? Denver has one bad loss but all their other losses are to top 100 RPI teams... but they only have 3 Top 100 RPI wins and none over the top 50.

-Jason "naaah, neither one of them are making it" Evans

No they're both out. Neither have any good wins really for the committee to consider. Denver is as good as a few at large teams will be - that's what Pomeroy shows - but their resume is lousy.

[wallyman]

In tonight's good news, UK's pathetic loss to Vanderbilt should keep them out of the tournament if there's any justice in the world.

[HaveFunExpectToWin]

In tonight's good news, UK's pathetic loss to Vanderbilt should keep them out of the tournament if there's any justice in the world.

I prefer to think of it as a fantastic win by my Dores (won 8 of the last 11 iirc). Thats 2 years in a row that Vandy has bounced UK from the tourney. I now have slight hope that Vandy can win 2 more and make the NCAAs, but it's doubtful. At the very least, I hope UK's hopes were just dashed.

[OldSchool]

In tonight's good news, UK's pathetic loss to Vanderbilt should keep them out of the tournament if there's any justice in the world.

If Kentucky misses the Dance, it will be interesting to see if that has any effect on their recruiting ability. For one-and-dones the one thing they want to do most during their one year is compete for the NCAA championship.