Randomness (from Ryan Kelly Vigil Thread) On NBA PG/Ray Lewis/etc

[UrinalCake]

Moderator's Note: This thread was created by pulling posts from the Ryan Kelly thread. It's interesting, so it's pulled out into its own thread to keep Kelly's thread on topic. Enjoy.

But I think he takes this upcoming week to practice and work off the rust. My bet is that his first game will be the Senior night game in Cameron against VT. I don't see him missing his last game in Cameron

I would have to think that he will start in that game regardless. Even if he plays for one possession and then we call a timeout and get him off the floor, I think he's earned the start. If course, we all hope he'll be back in the rotation by then. If he does play as soon as the Miami game, I wouldn't expect more than 10-15 minutes of playing time off the bench at most. But man, what an emotional lift that would give the team, similar to Ray Lewis returning for the playoff stretch and everyone knowing it would be his last run. Worked out pretty well for him 8-)

[oldnavy]

I would have to think that he will start in that game regardless. Even if he plays for one possession and then we call a timeout and get him off the floor, I think he's earned the start. If course, we all hope he'll be back in the rotation by then. If he does play as soon as the Miami game, I wouldn't expect more than 10-15 minutes of playing time off the bench at most. But man, what an emotional lift that would give the team, similar to Ray Lewis returning for the playoff stretch and everyone knowing it would be his last run. Worked out pretty well for him 8-)

Hey, I love Ryan Kelly and cannot wait for him to come back, but I think it might be a bit of a stretch to equate his impact to that of Ray Lewis,

[wilson]

I would have to think that he will start in that game regardless. Even if he plays for one possession and then we call a timeout and get him off the floor, I think he's earned the start. If course, we all hope he'll be back in the rotation by then. If he does play as soon as the Miami game, I wouldn't expect more than 10-15 minutes of playing time off the bench at most. But man, what an emotional lift that would give the team, similar to Ray Lewis returning for the playoff stretch and everyone knowing it would be his last run. Worked out pretty well for him 8-)

Hey, I love Ryan Kelly and cannot wait for him to come back, but I think it might be a bit of a stretch to equate his impact to that of Ray Lewis,

Ray Lewis is disgusting.

[Starter]

Just a couple of points. Firstly, I don't think Kyrie's return to the lineup 2 years ago (why does everyone think it was last year?) was a problem because he was apprehensive in his play. He came back and played at pretty much the same level and without any fear as far as I could tell. Secondly, the problem (if we can call it that) when Kyrie returned was that the team had actually gelled nicely and was playing at a very, very high level with Nolan at point. Bringing Irving back just in time for the NCAA's clearly disrupted the cohesiveness of the team. It wasn't anyone's fault and even though things didn't go like we all would have wanted, I don't second guess Coach K at all for bringing back his best player for the tournament (yes, I think Kyrie, even in limited playing time, was the best player on that team - no offense to Nolan or Kyle). I do agree, however, that Ryan being a senior will help the situation in that when he returns it should be as smooth a transition as one can hope for. He knows the system and will do his part to blend back in.

I'm very pumped about the news we heard last night (and today from insiders). Sound extremely promising!

Go Duke!

Even with Nolan Smith looking lost, Duke still would have won it all, IMO, if Derrick Williams didn't go berserk in the first half of that game against Arizona. He single-handedly kept them in the game. I agree with you on Kelly: I don't think it's going to be tough to integrate him at all. The best part of Kelly's game was that he blended in intuitively, offering whatever the team needed at the time. If anything, I expect the team's on-court chemistry to improve considering his passing touch, solid defense and long-range marksmanship.

This comes under the heading of one of those things we will never know the answer to. I've always thought that Coach K(much to his credit) knew what a great talent Kyrie was more concerned with the long term approach of caring more for the young man's career and the possibility of harming it than of his team's immediate success was ultra careful in not allowing him to return when he(Kyrie) wanted to or that he was was even ready to play before he ultimately did. I was in Florida yesterday and had a basketball conversation with former Kentucky star Sam Bowie. Mr Bowie is really a wonderful gentleman and a very intelligeny person. It was his view that Kyrie is a "generational" kind of player. That is one of which comes along maybe once a generation. He said that he is the the entire package with no apparent faults. If he stays healthy people will be speaking of him in 15 years the way they speak of MJ and Kobe today.

I think the world of Kyrie, but I feel like Bowie's scenario is unlikely, mainly because of the position Kyrie plays. No matter how good a point guard gets, they don't usually seem to reach that perceived level of a truly transcendent player, which appears limited to wings and elite big men. The exception, of course, is Magic Johnson, but he was enormous and kind of defied being pigeonholed into a position like Oscar Robertson before him and LeBron James after him. Isiah Thomas flirted with that sort of status, I'd say, but you still wouldn't put him up there with peers like Jordan and Bird. The past decade, you've had Steve Nash win back-to-back MVP's -- whether you feel like he deserved them, it happened -- and Chris Paul become an unquestionably elite player. But though both are probably Hall of Fame ballplayers, neither of those guys are considered on a level with the KD-LeBron-Kobe pantheon of super-elite players. (Paul comes closer, but still, though he has a signature sneaker, he's hardly a household name like those other guys, and I think most consider him a slight notch below them.) I think health permitting, Kyrie is on the CP3 path -- he'll be a perennial All-Star, most likely the best point guard in the game after Paul slows a bit, and a candidate for MVP awards depending on how good his teams are. That would put him up there with Grant Hill as the best Duke-bred pros of all time. But if Paul can't quite reach the Jordan/Kobe level, and it doesn't seem like he can, I don't see how Kyrie gets there either.

[Des Esseintes]

I think the world of Kyrie, but I feel like Bowie's scenario is unlikely, mainly because of the position Kyrie plays. No matter how good a point guard gets, they don't usually seem to reach that perceived level of a truly transcendent player, which appears limited to wings and elite big men. The exception, of course, is Magic Johnson, but he was enormous and kind of defied being pigeonholed into a position like Oscar Robertson before him and LeBron James after him. Isiah Thomas flirted with that sort of status, I'd say, but you still wouldn't put him up there with peers like Jordan and Bird. The past decade, you've had Steve Nash win back-to-back MVP's -- whether you feel like he deserved them, it happened -- and Chris Paul become an unquestionably elite player. But though both are probably Hall of Fame ballplayers, neither of those guys are considered on a level with the KD-LeBron-Kobe pantheon of super-elite players. (Paul comes closer, but still, though he has a signature sneaker, he's hardly a household name like those other guys, and I think most consider him a slight notch below them.) I think health permitting, Kyrie is on the CP3 path -- he'll be a perennial All-Star, most likely the best point guard in the game after Paul slows a bit, and a candidate for MVP awards depending on how good his teams are. That would put him up there with Grant Hill as the best Duke-bred pros of all time. But if Paul can't quite reach the Jordan/Kobe level, and it doesn't seem like he can, I don't see how Kyrie gets there either.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, but a couple of points:

1) Paul's main problem has been health. His secondary problem has been surrounding talent. There shouldn't have been any debate in the past half decade over Best Point Guard Alive, but the debate happened because Paul was not whole for a couple of seasons there and because D. Rose was on a Bulls team that won 100,000 regular season games. As it is, Paul is a risk every season to go down for a little while. One underrated thing that unites Jordan, James, Durant (so far), and Kobe is that those guys seem to have been assembled from space-age plastics. They never get injured. If Paul had been as healthy for the past six years as James had been, OR if he'd won several championships with Shaq at the start of his career, I think we would be speaking of him on a significantly more elevated plane than we already do. And the plane on which we speak of him now is perennial MVP threat.

2) I hear you on the positional disadvantages of point guard. But recall that before Jordan, the notion that the best player in history could play the two was significantly more far-fetched. Transcendent players do not follow rules. That's what makes them transcendent. If Kyrie ever PERs up around 30 (Paul's done it once and come close a couple of other times), he'll be among the best and most important players on the planet. If he hangs around there for several years running, he'll be the lord of all he surveys, position notwithstanding. Like you, of course, I'm dubious that will happen. It'd be awesome, though.

[rhcpflea99]

Even with Nolan Smith looking lost, Duke still would have won it all, IMO, if Derrick Williams didn't go berserk in the first half of that game against Arizona. He single-handedly kept them in the game. I agree with you on Kelly: I don't think it's going to be tough to integrate him at all. The best part of Kelly's game was that he blended in intuitively, offering whatever the team needed at the time. If anything, I expect the team's on-court chemistry to improve considering his passing touch, solid defense and long-range marksmanship.



I think the world of Kyrie, but I feel like Bowie's scenario is unlikely, mainly because of the position Kyrie plays. No matter how good a point guard gets, they don't usually seem to reach that perceived level of a truly transcendent player, which appears limited to wings and elite big men. The exception, of course, is Magic Johnson, but he was enormous and kind of defied being pigeonholed into a position like Oscar Robertson before him and LeBron James after him. Isiah Thomas flirted with that sort of status, I'd say, but you still wouldn't put him up there with peers like Jordan and Bird. The past decade, you've had Steve Nash win back-to-back MVP's -- whether you feel like he deserved them, it happened -- and Chris Paul become an unquestionably elite player. But though both are probably Hall of Fame ballplayers, neither of those guys are considered on a level with the KD-LeBron-Kobe pantheon of super-elite players. (Paul comes closer, but still, though he has a signature sneaker, he's hardly a household name like those other guys, and I think most consider him a slight notch below them.) I think health permitting, Kyrie is on the CP3 path -- he'll be a perennial All-Star, most likely the best point guard in the game after Paul slows a bit, and a candidate for MVP awards depending on how good his teams are. That would put him up there with Grant Hill as the best Duke-bred pros of all time. But if Paul can't quite reach the Jordan/Kobe level, and it doesn't seem like he can, I don't see how Kyrie gets there either.

Chris Paul is not even close to Isiah Thomas. Chris is an elite player but Isiah was another level more with Larry Birds and Magic Johnson.

[mr. synellinden]

I think the world of Kyrie, but I feel like Bowie's scenario is unlikely, mainly because of the position Kyrie plays. No matter how good a point guard gets, they don't usually seem to reach that perceived level of a truly transcendent player, which appears limited to wings and elite big men. The exception, of course, is Magic Johnson, but he was enormous and kind of defied being pigeonholed into a position like Oscar Robertson before him and LeBron James after him. Isiah Thomas flirted with that sort of status, I'd say, but you still wouldn't put him up there with peers like Jordan and Bird. The past decade, you've had Steve Nash win back-to-back MVP's -- whether you feel like he deserved them, it happened -- and Chris Paul become an unquestionably elite player. But though both are probably Hall of Fame ballplayers, neither of those guys are considered on a level with the KD-LeBron-Kobe pantheon of super-elite players. (Paul comes closer, but still, though he has a signature sneaker, he's hardly a household name like those other guys, and I think most consider him a slight notch below them.) I think health permitting, Kyrie is on the CP3 path -- he'll be a perennial All-Star, most likely the best point guard in the game after Paul slows a bit, and a candidate for MVP awards depending on how good his teams are. That would put him up there with Grant Hill as the best Duke-bred pros of all time. But if Paul can't quite reach the Jordan/Kobe level, and it doesn't seem like he can, I don't see how Kyrie gets there either.

Generally, I would agree with you. Looking at the last 20 years - other than Magic, the point guards who may have been viewed at one point or another as the best at their position - John Stockton; Jason Kidd; Allen Iverson; Chris Paul; Steve Nash - are not typically included in best of all time (top 15 or top 20) discussions, while guys like Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, Shaquille O'Neal, LeBron James, Karl Malone, Hakeem Olajuwon do make it into those conversations.
But I really think Irving is a cut above all those point guards I mentioned. Health permitting, I think he will become one of the all-time greats, a transcendent player who could go down as one of the top 2 or 3 point guards of all time - ahead of everyone listed above. I think he is that good - not just Chris Paul good, but Magic Johnson good. If he ever gets on a team with an All-Star caliber big man and/or wing player, he is going to win a few MVPs. He does things I've never seen any player do on a basketball court - and he's a month shy of his 21st birthday. That means he is SEVEN YEARS AWAY FROM HIS ATHLETIC PRIME. LeBron James is 28 this year - this is the year of his athletic prime, and look at how he has taken his game to an even higher level. Kyrie has 7 years of improvement before he gets to that point. I hope he just stays healthy. Because if he does, it's going to be amazing to watch his talent develop.

[mr. synellinden]

Here are the stats for Isiah's Age 20 season:

1981-82 20 DET NBA PG 72 72 (min.) 33.8 (fgm) 6.3 (fga) 14.8 (fg%).424 (3pfg%) .288 (reb.) 2.9 (asst.) 7.8 (stl.) 2.1 (to) 4.2 (ppg) 17.0
WIN SHARES: 2.3
PER: 14.5

Kyrie Age 20:

2012-13 20 CLE NBA PG 43 43 (min.) 35.3 (fgm) 8.7 (fga) 18.6 (fg%).470 (3pfg%).424 (reb.) 3.7 (asst.) 5.6 (stl.) (to)3.3 (ppg) 23.7
WIN SHARES: 4.7
PER: 22.7 (Isiah's was never this high)

[tommy]

Why are we discussing this in the Ryan Kelly foot thread? Great topic, but in this thread? Really. I'm sure there's a lot of folks who want to talk about Ryan, with the newfound optimism that seems to be out there. Can we in any way keep this thread for Kelly talk?

[Indoor66]

Why are we discussing this in the Ryan Kelly foot thread? Great topic, but in this thread? Really. I'm sure there's a lot of folks who want to talk about Ryan, with the newfound optimism that seems to be out there. Can we in any way keep this thread for Kelly talk?

ADD is a requirement to post on the board.

[Starter]

Why are we discussing this in the Ryan Kelly foot thread? Great topic, but in this thread? Really. I'm sure there's a lot of folks who want to talk about Ryan, with the newfound optimism that seems to be out there. Can we in any way keep this thread for Kelly talk?

Because it was mentioned in a post here and was fun to bandy about. And with 20 pages of breathless Ryan Kelly speculation about his aquatic activities and such, I feel like a little sidebar wasn't the worst thing in the world. But I'm fine dropping it, maybe we'll pick it up sometime else.

He's a poor man's version of (Steve) Novak.

Gottlieb said a few weird things in that interview you referenced, but this jumped out at me. If anything, Novak seems a reasonable aspiration for Kelly, given that Kelly is shooting 52 percent (!) from three this year. That's literally all Novak does is shoot threes, and they're the same height. In addition, Kelly offers some other things, such as that he has matured into a very good shot blocker. (Novak blocked nine shots in four years at Marquette.) And there's at least a chance Kelly's solid defense would carry over to the next level, as opposed to Novak, whom we know is a liability in that area. My sense is that if you're a deadeye shooter, especially if you're tall enough to get your shot off more easily, there's at least a decent chance you're going to find a home in the NBA. And if Kelly does get there, I think he likely has a chance to offer enough besides his jump shot -- which is a strength anyway -- to be somewhat more than a "poor man's Novak."

[OldPhiKap]

ADD is a requirement to post on the board.

I take deep and strident offense at your suggestion that oh wait a squirrel!

[Starter]

Hopefully, everyone around here can relax a bit now that the sanctity of the Ryan Kelly foot thread has been restored.

Anyway, I respect everyone's opinions on Kyrie, and with his scoring ability, he does some things that even Chris Paul doesn't do. (And vice versa.) I mean, even I'm amazed that he's scoring 23 points a game. But we've seen a whole lot of players for whom the sky seemed the limit, and then it doesn't really work out that way. At one point, I was pretty convinced Penny Hardaway would be in the Hall of Fame. Plus, LeBron's ability to improve every single year is unique; the debate, here, is whether Kyrie has that same ability. Maybe he does, I'm just skeptical since you can count on one hand guys in the past decade who've been able to do that.

Also, I respect the growing proliferation of advanced statistics a great deal, but PER is fairly irrelevant to this discussion. I mean, Amar'e Stoudemire currently ranks 27th all time. Manu Ginobili is 32nd. These aren't all-timers, and most mainstream fans don't follow PER anyway. That's how you break through to the Kobe/LeBron/Jordan level we're talking about: becoming a household name.

All that said, Kyrie is without question a special talent. I've seen a lot of high school ball, and he's the third-best player I've seen on that level behind LeBron and J.R. Smith. (Seriously! He's a wack job, but he was amazing.) Kyrie was a tremendous college player in the few games we saw him in. And it's rare a player can take the league by storm as quickly as he has. I'm just saying that as good as he is, we're talking about reaching Jordan and Magic levels of performance and reputation here. Guys as good as Iverson, McGrady and Nowitzki, I wouldn't say that they reached that level. So I'll believe it when I see it, is all.

[wsb3]

I take deep and strident offense at your suggestion that oh wait a squirrel!

thanks for the chuckle..

[Des Esseintes]

Hopefully, everyone around here can relax a bit now that the sanctity of the Ryan Kelly foot thread has been restored.

Word.

Also, I respect the growing proliferation of advanced statistics a great deal, but PER is fairly irrelevant to this discussion. I mean, Amar'e Stoudemire currently ranks 27th all time. Manu Ginobili is 32nd. These aren't all-timers, and most mainstream fans don't follow PER anyway. That's how you break through to the Kobe/LeBron/Jordan level we're talking about: becoming a household name.

I think you make a lot of great points, but in this paragraph you're a little muddled. It's true that PER qua PER is irrelevant, but since it's more or less a box score by itself it gives us a general sense of a player's offensive contributions. More to the point, I don't think the Stoudemire and Ginobli examples prove what you think they prove. Both of those guys will have a strong shot at making the Hall. If Kyrie "merely" hits their level, he too will be a likely Hall of Famer. At this point, if injuries don't blow him off course, he looks like he has an excellent chance to have a career that strong. But Jordan and LeBron are not in the high 20s in PER. They are #1 and #2, respectively. If Kyrie slides in at #3 behind them, I promise you that will mean he has reached "household name" status. I share your skepticism that he'll hit that level, but that's not because it's impossible for point guards to be that influential. It's because Jordans and LeBrons are crazy-rare.

Or, he could just win a bunch of championships. Kobe is nowhere near as good at basketball as either Jordan or LeBron, but those five titles, plus working in Los Angeles, have burnished his legend a little out of proportion to its just deserts. If Kyrie wins five titles, he will be a household name.

[Starter]

Word.



I think you make a lot of great points, but in this paragraph you're a little muddled. It's true that PER qua PER is irrelevant, but since it's more or less a box score by itself it gives us a general sense of a player's offensive contributions. More to the point, I don't think the Stoudemire and Ginobli examples prove what you think they prove. Both of those guys will have a strong shot at making the Hall. If Kyrie "merely" hits their level, he too will be a likely Hall of Famer. At this point, if injuries don't blow him off course, he looks like he has an excellent chance to have a career that strong. But Jordan and LeBron are not in the high 20s in PER. They are #1 and #2, respectively. If Kyrie slides in at #3 behind them, I promise you that will mean he has reached "household name" status. I share your skepticism that he'll hit that level, but that's not because it's impossible for point guards to be that influential. It's because Jordans and LeBrons are crazy-rare.

Or, he could just win a bunch of championships. Kobe is nowhere near as good at basketball as either Jordan or LeBron, but those five titles, plus working in Los Angeles, have burnished his legend a little out of proportion to its just deserts. If Kyrie wins five titles, he will be a household name.

I think you're on the money with just about everything you said, except for that I don't think Amar'e Stoudemire will make the Hall of Fame. I touched on the rarity of having a player as good as Jordan and LeBron come along, but you pounded the point home far more effectively. I agree that if Kyrie wins five titles, he'll be a household name, especially because of his aesthetically pleasing style and ebullient personality. Tim Duncan, while a great, great player, falls short of household name status because he's basic like breakfast.

If LeBron returns to the Cavs, by the way, which has emerged as a loudly whispered longshot, then Kyrie will probably gain in greatness points by association. Scottie Pippen was a great player in his own right, but he definitely gained visibility and credibility for his time spent next to Jordan.

[Des Esseintes]

I think you're on the money with just about everything you said, except for that I don't think Amar'e Stoudemire will make the Hall of Fame. I touched on the rarity of having a player as good as Jordan and LeBron come along, but you pounded the point home far more effectively. I agree that if Kyrie wins five titles, he'll be a household name, especially because of his aesthetically pleasing style and ebullient personality. Tim Duncan, while a great, great player, falls short of household name status because he's basic like breakfast.

If LeBron returns to the Cavs, by the way, which has emerged as a loudly whispered longshot, then Kyrie will probably gain in greatness points by association. Scottie Pippen was a great player in his own right, but he definitely gained visibility and credibility for his time spent next to Jordan.

Sadly--because I love that guy-- you're likely right about STAT. Too many injuries. Watch yourself, Blake Griffin. Early comparisons to Shawn Kemp haven't worked out for anyone, most especially Shawn Kemp.

[darthur]

Chris Paul is not even close to Isiah Thomas. Chris is an elite player but Isiah was another level more with Larry Birds and Magic Johnson.

Comparing the first 6 years of Chris Paul's career vs the first 6 years of Isaiah Thomas's career:

http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/nba/...maspergame.png
http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/nba/...asadvanced.png

I would say Paul's numbers are better, and it's not even that close.

Isaiah has two championships, but basketball is a team sport, and they played on very different teams. The Hornets were 18-64 the year before Paul joined, 21-45 the year after Paul left, and averaged 44-38 while he was there, even with all his injuries. Meanwhile, he is leading the LA Clippers to their best season in franchise history. (Second place would be his previous season with the Clippers.)

Edit: Back on topic, I think Kyrie has probably already surpassed both of those two as a scorer, but as a passer, he has quite a ways to go to catch up.

[Starter]

Not sure where this goes -- this seems like the perfect place -- but Chad Ford weighed in on Kelly's pro prospects today in his chat. (The whole thing is worth a read, as always.) Basically, he's even more bullish than those of us who are pretty optimistic that Kelly will indeed get drafted and have a decent shot to succeed in the pros.

He obviously had one of the greatest games in Duke history against Miami. NBA scouts do love mobile fours who can stretch the defense and there's no question how much Kelly has meant to Duke. They are a different (and better) team with him on the floor. There are a handful of GMs who see him as a potential late first round pick. Most everyone else has him somewhere in the second round. I really like him and even last year, when I was out in Maui scouting Duke, a number of scouts and GMs thought he would be a NBA player. I think he'll be drafted, the question is where. Offensively he has what it takes. Just not sure who he defends at the NBA level.

[Dev11]

Not sure where this goes -- this seems like the perfect place -- but Chad Ford weighed in on Kelly's pro prospects today in his chat. (The whole thing is worth a read, as always.) Basically, he's even more bullish than those of us who are pretty optimistic that Kelly will indeed get drafted and have a decent shot to succeed in the pros.

As a late first-rounder, Ryan would be a cool addition to OKC as a scorer off the bench. I didn't realize that he even had a prayer as a first-round pick, but this certainly is optimistic on that front.