MBB: Duke 75, Wake Forest 70 Post-Game Thread

[Duvall]

I don't care how many 3s we take at home since we seem to shoot a high percentage at CIS but what do we shoot on the road? To be a good road team, we probably have to be more aggressive and try to get more points inside. I would bet that our younger guys, ie Sheed and Quinn, struggle more with 3-point shooting on the road. It would be great if they looked to penetrate more to get themselves going early in the game.

Duke has shot an ice-cold 21.1% from 3 in road games, which might be worrisome if they had not shot a blistering 43.4% on neutral courts.

I don't think it means anything, except maybe that Duke misses Kelly.

[pfrduke]

Duke has shot an ice-cold 21.1% from 3 in road games, which might be worrisome if they had not shot a blistering 43.4% on neutral courts.

I don't think it means anything, except maybe that Duke misses Kelly.

And that a 3-game sample size is not particularly illuminating.

[sporthenry]

I know the common narrative is that Duke lives and dies by the 3 but this isn't exclusive to many top teams. Before Kelly went down, Duke was obviously more versatile and didn't live or die by the 3 as much (I'll try to dig up some stats to back that up). But just looking at Kenpom, Duke is actually 213 in 3PA/FGA at 31.7% which means they aren't necessarily shooting too many 3's. But they are 7th in % of points which come from the 3 at 40.1%. What I take from this is that Duke doesn't take too many 3's, they just hit a lot of the 3's that they take.

To add a bit more onto this whole live by the 3, die by the 3 "myth." With Kelly in there Duke was averaging 17 3's a game versus the 20 they are now averaging. So as you would expect our offense has been limited a bit and thus forced us into outside shots. Now everyone recognizes any hope of a title relies on Kelly's healthy so with him in there, I'm not worried about the 3.

A few caveats to the numbers, the numbers without Kelly include the 2 losses which usually result in more 3's (23 against Miami and 20 against NC State) and with Kelly, Duke played a variety of opponents which ranged from VCU/OSU to FGCU and Delaware. Against FGCU, Duke shot 31 3's, take that game out, and Duke's 3PA per game drops to 16.2. Additionally, in some of Duke's toughest games, Duke wasn't very reliant on the 3. Versus Minnesota (8-10), Louisville (3-15), and OSU (5-12). Took 18 versus UK and 22 versus Temple but I think that shows that Duke will adapt against better opponents.

Finally, of other top 15 teams, Wichita State, Miami, Butler, Arizona, Florida, Indiana, and Michigan all have a higher % of 3PA/FGA (and OSU/Louisville are a few tenths behind). And as far as 3 point % (meaning of all your points, how many come from the 3), Duke is 7th mainly b/c they shoot it so well but Indiana and Michigan are also top 10 and Florida is 15th. So Duke is actually in good company.

[gumbomoop]

Anyone notice K went with a 4 guard lineup somewhere around the 8 minute mark or so? That lineup actually had some stops on defense... I think.

Yes, I did, in-game thread post #175. But it didn't last long, no more than a minute or so, a very few possessions, and I think Wake had no trouble scoring against it.

I think it's an interesting cat-and-mouse coaching decision, but my vague recollection - not yet having re-viewed the game - is its use in the Wake game didn't work so well. Maybe we'll see it again, but mostly as end-of-game FT-shooting team. And even then, K probably likely to use substitution for O [= ball-handling and FTs] and D [ = height and D-rebounds].