This Week in the ACC - 1/28-2/3

[pfrduke]

The Miami Hurricanes had one heck of a week. In two games in Coral Gables, they outscored their opponents 161-110, holding Duke and Florida State to a combined 31-for-86 from 2 (36%) and 7-for-40 from 3 (17.5%). While forcing all those misses, the Canes picked up 73 of the 94 available defensive rebounds (77.7%), meaning not only did their opponents miss a lot of shots, they were held to one shot per trip. On the other end of the court, Miami scored 1.11 points per possession, a clip far better than any team has managed in conference play so far this season. At the end of the day, Miami now sits 2 games up in the loss column a third of the way through conference play. The Canes hit the road for a couple of games this week and while they've handled away games unbeaten so far, they're now doing it as the top dog in the conference, which can be a very different story.

Monday was dark

Tuesday has front-loaded action with half the conference hitting the court. Tobacco Road hits the road this week with Duke, State, and UNC playing away games. State gets it going first with a trip to the JPJ. This is a rough challenge for the Pack - a disciplined team that will slow the pace down, eliminate transition opportunities, and (worst of all) force State to defend for the full 35 seconds. A win would be an important step on the way toward making a run at the top of the conference (and a loss would put them 3 games behind Miami in the loss column). Next on tap is Georgia Tech at Clemson, which may provide some order among the (many) teams under .500. Closing out the night, UNC travels to Boston College. The Eagles have, in a way, outperformed their record. Not until last weekend's trip to Charlottesville did BC lose a conference game by more than 10 points, and Chestnut Hill the Eagles took both NC State and Miami right down to the wire. For Carolina, this is the first in what could turn into a three-game winning streak before a trip down to Coral Gables (following the trip to BC, UNC hosts Virginia Tech and Wake).

[32]Virginia hosts [38]NC State
[70]Clemson hosts [82]Georgia Tech
[119]Boston College hosts [46]North Carolina

Wednesday gets the rest of the conference in play. Duke leads things off with a short road trip to Winston-Salem. Wake's undefeated at home in conference play, including wins over 2 of the conference's (only) 4 winning teams. Also at 8, Maryland heads down to Florida State - this is a game both teams need. Finally, mid-week action closes out with Miami traveling the Virginia Tech. The Hokies have absolutely nothing other than Erick Green - that probably won't be enough against the Canes.

[145]Wake Forest hosts [5]Duke
[94]Florida State hosts [59]Maryland
[164]Virginia Tech hosts [13]Miami

Thursday and Friday are dark.

Saturday again has front-loaded action, with 5 of the 6 weekend games. It's entirely possible that three of the first four games will feature entirely teams with losing conference records (if Carolina loses mid-week, it guarantees that these games won't feature a team with a winning record), which says a lot about the strength of the conference this season. The fourth puts Duke in hostile Florida territory again, this time a little further north. But it's the fifth game on Saturday that will get all the press. It's the only matchup between State and Miami this season and it takes place in Raleigh. That building has been hopping for big matchups this seasons and this weekend shouldn't be anything different.

[119]Boston College hosts [70]Clemson
[46]North Carolina hosts [164]Virginia Tech
[94]Florida State hosts [5]Duke
[59]Maryland hosts [145]Wake Forest
[38]NC State hosts [13]Miami

Sunday has pre-Super Bowl action in Atlanta. Virginia has struggled on the road against all but what is probably the worst team in the ACC (hi Hokies). Georgia Tech plays fierce defense. Pomeroy predicts a low-pace, low-scoring game - 52-51 for Virginia in a 59 possession game; that's both teams scoring well under 0.90 points per possession. Yikes.

[82]Georgia Tech hosts [32]Virginia

ACC Non-Conference Record: 115-37
ACC vs. BCS Opponents: 19-18
(note - now that non-conference play is done the detailed record by conference won't be re-posted until we hit tournament play).

[Bob Green]

How many folks are expecting State to drop the ball against Virginia tonight? I am. State plays best in an uptempo game while Virginia likes to play at a snail's pace. With the game being in Charlottesville and State coming off a win over Carolina, I'll take the Wahoos in a close low scoring ugly game. I hope I am wrong as I desire to see State win.

[pfrduke]

How many folks are expecting State to drop the ball against Virginia tonight? I am. State plays best in an uptempo game while Virginia likes to play at a snail's pace. With the game being in Charlottesville and State coming off a win over Carolina, I'll take the Wahoos in a close low scoring ugly game. I hope I am wrong as I desire to see State win.

State's got a rough stretch of games - a trip to Charlottesville, hosting Miami, and then a trip to Durham. Three straight games, two on the road, against the only other teams with winning records in conference. Pomeroy won't favor State in any of them (although he ranks them pretty low due to defensive struggles - State will probably be a slight Vegas favorite over the Canes), and I think that anything better than 0-3 is actually a pretty good performance. Once they get past this stretch, though, the only really tough game left on their schedule is the return trip to UNC. Their last 8 games are against Clemson, FSU twice, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, BC, Wake, and at UNC. They should be able to build up some schedule-based momentum as they head into the conference tournament (not that I'm looking way ahead, or anything).

[vick]

How many folks are expecting State to drop the ball against Virginia tonight? I am. State plays best in an uptempo game while Virginia likes to play at a snail's pace. With the game being in Charlottesville and State coming off a win over Carolina, I'll take the Wahoos in a close low scoring ugly game. I hope I am wrong as I desire to see State win.

I like UVa in this one too (though I am a secondary UVa fan, having grown up in Virginia, so I also hope they win). They're 14-5, but four of their losses are by 4, 6, 2, and 3 points, plus they have won at Wisconsin, which is never easy. Sure a couple of the losses are to marginal non-conference teams, but you could say the same thing about Miami. Accepting that they haven't exactly faced a particularly hard ACC schedule so far, I believe they're second in efficiency margin for conference-only games. All told, they're a pretty good team--personally I would bet on them over Maryland to be the ACC's fifth tournament team, even though they aren't yet close according to Lunardi. I think they're favored by about 4 by Vegas as well, so I wouldn't even really call it dropping the ball if State loses this one.

[Olympic Fan]

NC State at Virginia is indeed the game to watch tonight.

It will be interesting to see if State can break its post Duke/UNC jinx -- as noted when they beat Duke and lost to Maryland, State is 3-11 over the last 20 years in the first game after beaing Duke or UNC in the regular season. Will they make it 3-12 tonight?

UNC-BC has its interesting aspects. But I think the ongoing physical problems of BC sophomore Dennis Clifford really hurts the Eagles chances. The 7-footer, who is probably their second-best player, has chronic knee issues. He's not able to practice and he's only been able to play 5-10 ineffective minutes a game.

Without Clifford, the Eagles are painfully small -- 6-9 Ryan Anderson starts along with four other guards. I was actually hoping to see a matchup of the relatively overlooked Anderson vs. the relatively overhyped McAdoo. McAdoo gets all the pub, but Anderson is averaging more points (16.4 to 14.6), more rebounds (9.1 to 8.4), shooting a better percentage from the floor (49.1 to 45.6), a better percentage from the FT line (64.0 to 59.0), has more assists per game (1.4 to 1.2) and a lot less turnovers (30 to 53). Neither player blocks a lot of shots, but Anderson blocks more than twice as many (13 to 6).

Simply put, Anderson is a clearly superior player, even if he's had to play out of position at center (he's a classic power forward). Unfortunarely, with Clifford so limited, I suspect he'll be matched up more with James and Hubert than McAdoo.

I have a trivia question for you guys that relates to tonight's games. Which current ACC coach has the best homecourt winning percentage in ACC play?

Hint: It's not Mike Krzyzewski (79.3) and it's not Roy Williams (78.7).

The answer is: Brad Brownell of Clemson. In two and a third seasons, his Tigers are 16-4 against ACC opponents in Littlejohn -- that's 80.0 percent!

Maybe it's a good thing Duke doesn't have to play down there this year. But it's a concern for UNC on Feb. 28. And it's a BIG concern for Georgia Tech tonight.

[Bob Green]

Virginia is a 4.5 points favorite with the over/under set at 126, so Vegas is looking for a score in the neighborhood of 65-61. Seeing as Virginia likes to play slow, I believe the winning combination will be either Virginia with the under or State with the over. If more than 126 total points are scored, I have a hard time believing Virginia will be victorious.

Seeing as Virginia is the Vegas favorite, I will grudgingly back off my earlier "drop the ball against Virginia" question (it was really a statement not so cleverly disguised as a question). I remain convinced this is a game an experienced, talented State team should win. They were the preseason favorite to win the ACC.

I'm looking forward to watching the game as it will provide more data for my never ending quest to figure out how this season will unfold. The Miami at State game later this week is another important match-up.

[sporthenry]

Virginia is a 4.5 points favorite with the over/under set at 126, so Vegas is looking for a score in the neighborhood of 65-61. Seeing as Virginia likes to play slow, I believe the winning combination will be either Virginia with the under or State with the over. If more than 126 total points are scored, I have a hard time believing Virginia will be victorious.

Seeing as Virginia is the Vegas favorite, I will grudgingly back off my earlier "drop the ball against Virginia" question (it was really a statement not so cleverly disguised as a question). I remain convinced this is a game an experienced, talented State team should win. They were the preseason favorite to win the ACC.

I'm looking forward to watching the game as it will provide more data for my never ending quest to figure out how this season will unfold. The Miami at State game later this week is another important match-up.

Another thing to mention with the UVA/NC State game WRT Vegas is that there was some talks about CJ Leslie being sick. Apparently he is sick but will suit up so that is probably good for a few points.

[pfrduke]

Virginia is a 4.5 points favorite with the over/under set at 126, so Vegas is looking for a score in the neighborhood of 65-61. Seeing as Virginia likes to play slow, I believe the winning combination will be either Virginia with the under or State with the over. If more than 126 total points are scored, I have a hard time believing Virginia will be victorious.

Seeing as Virginia is the Vegas favorite, I will grudgingly back off my earlier "drop the ball against Virginia" question (it was really a statement not so cleverly disguised as a question). I remain convinced this is a game an experienced, talented State team should win. They were the preseason favorite to win the ACC.

I'm looking forward to watching the game as it will provide more data for my never ending quest to figure out how this season will unfold. The Miami at State game later this week is another important match-up.

Interestingly enough, the Pomeroy forecast for the game is 65-61 Virginia.

[CDu]

CJ Leslie will not start tonight, with flu-like symptoms. Uncertain how much (or how well) he'll play. Without him, State is VERY limited.

[Newton_14]

CJ Leslie will not start tonight, with flu-like symptoms. Uncertain how much (or how well) he'll play. Without him, State is VERY limited.

That is a big loss. It puts State with basically a 5 man rotation which means to rest anyone, Tyler Lewis has to come in or the big 7 Footer. No flexibility at all. Defending UVA for 33 seconds every trip is going to wear the starters out...

[CDu]

That is a big loss. It puts State with basically a 5 man rotation which means to rest anyone, Tyler Lewis has to come in or the big 7 Footer. No flexibility at all. Defending UVA for 33 seconds every trip is going to wear the starters out...

To clarify, they didn't say he won't play. Just that they don't know how much he will play.

So far, UVa is conceding all rebounds on their offensive end, focusing on defending the fast break. That's smart. They've held State to only 7 points in 5 minutes. Unfortunately, it puts a LOT of pressure on their half court offense (and they've only scored twice as a result).

It will be interesting, if UVa starts making shots, to see whether State presses offensively.

[CDu]

Leslie came in after about 6 minutes. He's done nothing noteworthy yet. But Brown just hurt his ankle on a drive, and is now on the bench.

In spite of that, State is up 17-7.

[NSDukeFan]

Leslie came in after about 6 minutes. He's done nothing noteworthy yet. But Brown just hurt his ankle on a drive, and is now on the bench.

In spite of that, State is up 17-7.

Isn't 10 points in a UVa game basically an insurmountable lead? I guess it's still a bit early.

[Newton_14]

Isn't 10 points in a UVa game basically an insurmountable lead? I guess it's still a bit early.

To Channel Billy... "It's ovah!"

I keed I keed

[CDu]

Isn't 10 points in a UVa game basically an insurmountable lead? I guess it's still a bit early.

The score is now 17-16. Brown has gone back to the locker room. This game is far from over.

[Wander]

Isn't 10 points in a UVa game basically an insurmountable lead? I guess it's still a bit early.

No lead is insurmountable with NC State.

[Newton_14]

The score is now 17-16. Brown has gone back to the locker room. This game is far from over.

So over/under on what time this evening some poor unattentive soul throws up a thread titled "UVA upsetting State" with the opening line being, "Anyone else watching this? Uva is ...."

Sorry, been on the couch for 3 days with that Flu Bug Leslie has and I am going stir crazy.. No shirts left to sweat through either.. sigh..

[CDu]

State is fighting admirably on the road without a healthy Leslie and now without Brown for the last 7 minutes (and probably the rest of the half, at least). They're up 4 with a chance to extend the lead. Neither team is looking at all good offensively. That should probably be expected as UVa isn't very good and State isn't very good without Brown and the fast break.

[CDu]

So over/under on what time this evening some poor unattentive soul throws up a thread titled "UVA upsetting State" with the opening line being, "Anyone else watching this? Uva is ...."

Sorry, been on the couch for 3 days with that Flu Bug Leslie has and I am going stir crazy.. No shirts left to sweat through either.. sigh..

Haha, good question. Sorry to hear you're ill. Hope you feel better.

[Newton_14]

Haha, good question. Sorry to hear you're ill. Hope you feel better.

Thanks. It has not been fun..