pointless debate over what our seed is

[brevity]

Spoke too soon about UK. Never saw a 17 point lead disappear so quickly. Ole Miss is in the midst of a 16-0 run.

I'm not going to fault the Wildcats too much here. Ashley Judd is available again. It's easy to get distracted.

[moonpie23]

i guess that old writing on the wall that says: "no matter how hot she is, some guy is sick of her BS" could POSSIBLY be in play here, but i certainly can't see it....

one of the most beautiful women ever......imho

[CDu]

Upon further review, you are correct about the East. I think the comment was Duke does better as a #1 seed. I guess this is sort of a self fulfilling prophecy especially in the East or South where Duke would be sent for being one of the better #1 seeds.

Of the final 4 runs, we were in the East 7 times, the South 3 times and the Midwest once (titles came twice from the East and once from Midwest and once from South).

Of the final 4 runs, we were #1 6 times, #2 4 times and # 3 once (titles came from the 2 seed once and 1 seed 3 times).

The West hasn't been terrible but is more of a small sample size. K has only been West 5 times. As a 3 seed, he is 3-2, as a 6 seed 0-1, as a 2 seed 1-1 and as a 1 seed 2-1.

On the whole, he is 45-9 from the 1 seed, 24-6 from the 2 seed, 10-5 from the 3 seed, 2-1 from the 5 seed, 0-1 from the 6 and 8 seed. So again, it behooves Duke to be a #1 seed.

Actually, by your own analysis I disagree a bit with the bolded part. 23-5 (#2 outside of west) looks better than (or at least a good as) 2-1 (#1 out west). At the very least, a #2 seed further east is a push with a #1 out west.

[El_Diablo]

http://xkcd.com/904/

[wk2109]

Kenpom currently gives Florida a 57.2% probability of going undefeated in SEC play. That's pretty astounding regardless of how bad that conference is.

[throatybeard]

Why is this a Watch, and not a Vigil. I'm not asserting one or the other, but inquiring minds want to know.

[-jk]

Why is this a Watch, and not a Vigil. I'm not asserting one or the other, but inquiring minds want to know.

If I had to guess, a vigil is a worrisome thing, a watch is more hopeful.

But you're the linguist! You tell us.

-jk

[bedeviled]

Why is this a Watch, and not a Vigil

I think I've got it.
A vigil (etymologically from 'alertness' or 'wakefulness') is (per reference.com):
1. wakefulness maintained for any reason during the normal hours for sleeping.
2. a watch or a period of watchful attention maintained at night or at other times.
3. a period of wakefulness from inability to sleep.
So, a vigil is a watch, but it is a watch carried out while everyone is expected to be sleeping...a watch in the midst of darkness...you know, darkness, like 'what exactly is the injury?' or 'how long until he returns?"
Contrary to the darkness of injury status, the information for the #1 seed is currently out in the daylight for all to see. Once the committee takes that information into the double-secret seeding meeting, I'm sure this thread will be retitled to being a vigil

[JasonEvans]

Agreed... I was really hoping to have Ryan back for our game at FSU.. If that doesn't happen then hopefully he can help us exact some revenge vs. ncsu

I think both of those are extremely unlikely. Extremely.

-Jason "at this point, I would be thrilled to get him back the end of February" Evans

[DukieinSoCal]

Florida and Kansas seem almost assured of ending up with #1 seeds considering they'll probably run away with their conference titles. Also, the big-10 winner will almost certainly be rewarded for winning a very tough conference. At least IU, MSU, and Michigan will beat up on each other, likely leaving 2 out of the 3 looking at lower seeds.

I never really considered Butler and Gonzaga as serious contenders for a top seed, even more so now after Butler got shellacked last night.

That leaves Syracuse and Arizona as potential threats to our pursuit of the last #1 seed. I would bet Arizona will lose at least 2 more games in a weak Pac-12. Syracuse will likely lose at least 1-2 more games as well but they may get a boost in their evaluation if Southerland comes back, much like us with Ryan.

Should be interesting to follow the rest of the way.

Kenpom currently gives Florida a 57.2% probability of going undefeated in SEC play. That's pretty astounding regardless of how bad that conference is.

[Kedsy]

Florida and Kansas seem almost assured of ending up with #1 seeds considering they'll probably run away with their conference titles.

In mid-January 2010, I remember people here saying Texas was pretty much a lock for a #1 seed. They ended up with a #8. I expect both Florida and Kansas have a better shot of continuing their strong play than that (then) top-ranked Texas team did, but my point is nothing is "almost assured" at this point in the season.

[sporthenry]

Pitt currently taking it to Cuse. I'd say the top 6 teams have sort of separated themselves but Cuse is in danger of falling out. Ultimately, I think it'll be the top 5 fighting for the 4 spots. I agree that KU and Florida have the inside track with their schedules. Then add one of IU/Michigan if either team sweeps or whoever wins the regular season title. Then it will come down to Duke versus the other if the other is able to win the conference tourney.

Now teams like Zona, Cuse or even a Miami can win its way into the discussion but this is probably most probable at this point and Duke sort of lucks out if the committee takes into account Kelly's injury.

[sporthenry]

So of course KU loses today. Biggest part of the loss was that it was at home but I don't think it will kill them assuming they right the ship but Duke is in a good position assuming they finish the year strong.

[Bob Green]

So of course KU loses today. Biggest part of the loss was that it was at home but I don't think it will kill them assuming they right the ship but Duke is in a good position assuming they finish the year strong.

Number 2 Kansas loses and either #3 Indiana or #1 Michigan will lose later tonight. Duke is in good shape as long as we continue to win, which is easier said than done.

[sagegrouse]

So of course KU loses today. Biggest part of the loss was that it was at home but I don't think it will kill them assuming they right the ship but Duke is in a good position assuming they finish the year strong.

#5 Duke "should be" #3 in the polls next week, moving up at least two places. #2 Kansas loses, and #1 Michigan plays #3 Indiana. #4 Florida should beat Ole Miss at home.

Moreover, Duke's impressive win was in a difficult environment in Tallahassee.

sagegrouse

[matt1]

#5 Duke "should be" #3 in the polls next week, moving up at least two places. #2 Kansas loses, and #1 Michigan plays #3 Indiana. #4 Florida should beat Ole Miss at home.

Moreover, Duke's impressive win was in a difficult environment in Tallahassee.

sagegrouse

If Ole Miss somehow pulls an upset, do you think Duke will be #2 on Monday?

[sporthenry]

If Ole Miss somehow pulls an upset, do you think Duke will be #2 on Monday?

Yes, unless Michigan wins in a tight game and they keep both teams ahead of Duke. But Ole Miss is already down 8. And rankings are relatively useless. This thread has the eye on the real prize, the #1 seed.

[cptnflash]

Florida already up 18 on Old Miss 13 minutes in. At this rate, they'll win by 50. I still don't get why the media keeps repeating the "no great teams this year" meme. Florida is clearly great. They'll get some #1 votes in the polls on Monday, but probably not enough to overtake whoever wins tonight's IU/MI game.

[sporthenry]

Florida already up 18 on Old Miss 13 minutes in. At this rate, they'll win by 50. I still don't get why the media keeps repeating the "no great teams this year" meme. Florida is clearly great. They'll get some #1 votes in the polls on Monday, but probably not enough to overtake whoever wins tonight's IU/MI game.

Well it is tough to be the great team when you aren't even #1. Ole Miss just lost to UK and Florida doesn't really have nearly the resume that Duke does in terms of high quality wins. Heck, Duke has better wins and their 2 losses were to top 20 teams just like Florida. Florida seems inconsistent and even more reliant on the 3 than Duke. They are a very good team and probably playing the best ball but that doesn't make them dominant in my eyes.

[cptnflash]

Well it is tough to be the great team when you aren't even #1. Ole Miss just lost to UK and Florida doesn't really have nearly the resume that Duke does in terms of high quality wins. Heck, Duke has better wins and their 2 losses were to top 20 teams just like Florida. Florida seems inconsistent and even more reliant on the 3 than Duke. They are a very good team and probably playing the best ball but that doesn't make them dominant in my eyes.

Florida will be #2 on Monday, and will be #1 the following week after Indiana loses at least one of their road games at Illinois and Ohio State (assuming Indiana manages to win tonight, which is looking less and less certain every minute). After that, I expect Florida will remain #1 through the NCAA tournament, where they'll almost certainly be the #1 overall seed.

Florida's average margin of victory in conference games so far this year is 26.5 points. That's not a typo. If that's not dominant, I don't know what is.