The Ryan Kelly Lower Extremity Vigil

[OldSchool]

The big question is how long is Ryan likely to be out for? Only a few weeks, or the rest of the season?

If he is expected to be back by mid- to late-February, I would not try to change the playing style of the team much. The biggest opportunity is there for Alex, because he has a better 3-pt shot capability than Josh or Amile and is more of a natural stretch-4. He could go from bench-warmer to starter if he can show the coaches that he can hold down the fort at the stretch-4 position sufficiently not to disrupt the team’s playing style while waiting for Ryan to return. I would start Quinn, Seth, Rasheed, Alex and Mason if Ryan will return in a few weeks and see if that lineup will work for us. Amile will get significantly more minutes off the bench at the 4 in this scenario.

If Ryan is out for the season, I would make a more dramatic change and, if Marshall’s foot is 100% now, I would start Marshall at the 5 and Mason at the 4. Mason is experienced enough to make the shift, and played together with Miles enough in past years that he can easily move to the 4. I am a big fan of Josh but the inescapable fact is that he is undersized at the 5 position, and doesn’t give us the offense at the 4 position that Mason does. I would start Quinn, Seth, Rasheed, Mason and Marshall if Ryan will not return in a few weeks. What we would need from Marshall is not overly aggressive play, but just using his size and athleticism to play solid, fundamental basketball in defensive positioning, back screens, rebounding, garbage points and collecting the occasional lob. This would be a big change in our offensive style, but it will be very hard for teams to match up with us on the front line given our size and athleticism at the 4 and the 5.

Obviously, in either situation there will be some big bumps in the road and some losses but given that we have two months of playing time ahead, the goal is to be in the best position come March.

[jipops]

I think this could very well be a blessing in disguise. Sure we'll miss him Saturday but I actually don't think we win with him anyways. Obviously this gives Amile and Alex more opportunity for burn and possibly even Marshall. There will be some bumps of course and we'll drop some games as a result but if we get him back by 2/2 then I think we're in good shape and possibly better than we have been.

[Bluealum]

Are we going to see a double Plumlee?

I would be shocked if this ever happens. Now that Kelly is out, I suspect Marshall becomes the designated backup for Mason when he is out, which may only be a couple of minutes a game unless there is foul trouble. Even then he likely won't be in during close end of game situations, despite any foul trouble for Mason, as he does not appear to be a great foul shooter or a great passer at this point in his career.

Hairston, Jefferson, and Murphy will challenge for the starting role at the '4' with the other two putting in minutes at that spot, till one really emerges. Marshall should get a few more minutes, but that may only be because Hairston will now play the 4 rather than backing up Mason.

We have plenty of capable bodies, but no one like Ryan, we will be a different team with a different offensive and defensive dynamic. It should be interesting to watch how we change the way we play in the next few weeks.

PS - I completely agree with Oldschool that the potential length of Ryan's absence will affect who plays. If he is anticipated back soon it favors Alex. If not, I am not sure it favors Marshall though, as having another less mobile 'big' may negatively impact Mason. It may however favor a quick rebounder with a knack for the basket who occupies much less room, and happily we have Amile as a nice fit for that role.

[dukebballcamper90-91]

Gosh this type of stuff seems to bite us every year. I think we have some players on the bench ready to step up. I think Josh deserves a shot at a start at the same time starting Jefferson could keep rotation in tact. Jefferson's energy could help us on the road.

[mr. synellinden]

How many people just looked at the schedule to see for which game Kelly might return?

Is 2/7 against N.C. State in Durham too optimistic?

Remember - Hurley broke his foot in 1992, and that season turned out okay.

Boozer broke his foot in 2001, and that season turned out okay.

If I had to put my money on one player taking most advantage of this opportunity, it's Jefferson. The kid can really play, and I expect to see his game advance quite a bit with more playing time. I also think Sully will resume his role as a consistent scorer with Kelly out.

[Chris Randolph]

I won't speculate as to what the coaching staff will do, style-wise, to replace Ryan and put the best product on the floor. The "indefinitely" tag scares me. That said, as some of you have stated, I like the idea that it gives other guys a chance to step up and get better. And if Ryan makes a strong comeback, the bench will be that much better/experienced.

I just hate it for Ryan, what a great season he was having. Tremendous work from his freshman year to get here.

Stinking foot injuries have crushed us the last 3 years!!!! Geez

[cptnflash]

I think this could very well be a blessing in disguise. Sure we'll miss him Saturday but I actually don't think we win with him anyways. Obviously this gives Amile and Alex more opportunity for burn and possibly even Marshall. There will be some bumps of course and we'll drop some games as a result but if we get him back by 2/2 then I think we're in good shape and possibly better than we have been.

This is in no way a blessing in disguise. As Coach K himself has said many times, the continued development of our starters is much more important than the development of our bench. Ryan's development is now halted indefinitely, he will regress from a conditioning standpoint, and his absence will affect the development of our other starters because they'll have to make adjustments in the way we play due to his absence. We have no one available that even comes close to matching Ryan's skill set, experience, and leadership on offense and defense.

There is no way to spin this as anything other than a collosal setback for Ryan and the team. I feel so bad for Ryan especially. As Coach said, he was playing the best basketball of his career. I hope he gets better and can make it back this year, but "indefinitely" sounds pretty ominous to me, particularly given that this is a reinjury situation.

[Cameron]

Again, that number is 1-800-237-TALK. According to their website, they are supposedly very good at negotiating suicides.

This is a nightmare.

[loran16]

Sucks, but we're built to withstand it at this position. At least one of Jefferson/Murphy will likely turn out to be capable enough to hold down the fort.

Huh? Built to withstand it? Yes one of those guys, if not both will eventually be able to hold down the fort.

But they're freshmen who have barely played (Yes Murphy redshirted last year - still a frosh), whereas Ryan was a senior whose role was clear. In addition, neither plays like Ryan at all for good reason, meaning that the team's general strategy on O will have to change. And Fast.

We are not built to withstand Kelly's injury. We just hope that the guys can step up fast - but it's mostly a hope.

[jipops]

This is in no way a blessing in disguise. As Coach K himself has said many times, the continued development of our starters is much more important than the development of our bench. Ryan's development is now halted indefinitely, he will regress from a conditioning standpoint, and his absence will affect the development of our other starters because they'll have to make adjustments in the way we play due to his absence. We have no one available that even comes close to matching Ryan's skill set, experience, and leadership on offense and defense.

There is no way to spin this as anything other than a collosal setback for Ryan and the team. I feel so bad for Ryan especially. As Coach said, he was playing the best basketball of his career. I hope he gets better and can make it back this year, but "indefinitely" sounds pretty ominous to me, particularly given that this is a reinjury situation.

You obviously don't remember 2001.

[cptnflash]

You obviously don't remember 2001.

I would say you obviously underestimate Ryan's value.

[jipops]

I would say you obviously underestimate Ryan's value.

I would say you did not read my post.

K will make the best of the situation. Amile and Alex may very well garner valuable game experience. I think Hairston will mostly be a back up to Mason. If we get Kelly back by early Feb, the kid we ALL value heavily, we could ultimately end up being a better team than we have been.

It's ok to try to be positive.

[dukelifer]

I think this could very well be a blessing in disguise. Sure we'll miss him Saturday but I actually don't think we win with him anyways. Obviously this gives Amile and Alex more opportunity for burn and possibly even Marshall. There will be some bumps of course and we'll drop some games as a result but if we get him back by 2/2 then I think we're in good shape and possibly better than we have been.

This State game is going to be a tough one. Road games in ACC are always difficult. Duke could rally together and play great or it could be ugly. It is asking a lot for Freshman to step up in their first real road game. Murphy may be improving but this could be difficult game to get confidence. I am hoping Duke can make a game of it and play good D throughout. This will be a big test for the team. But as you say- the team has time to adjust and I agree they should get better with time and important bench players will be called on to do more. Will be interesting to see the maturation process.

[ChicagoCrazy84]

Does anyone think there is a chance he could be back in for the Maryland game Jan 26?

I always construe the word "indefinitely" as worse than anything besides "for the season" but Goodman tweeted a few weeks maybe! Ahhhh I'm going crazy!! Why Ryan why??

[ncexnyc]

I would say you obviously underestimate Ryan's value.

Ryan is a key member of the team, there is no doubt about it, however the key word is TEAM. If the potential loss of one player derails our season, then maybe we weren't that good of a team to begin with.

Alex, Amile, and Marshall were asked to come to Duke for a reason. It's because they are talented young men who can play. The team is lead by the winningest coach in the history of the game, I have faith that Coach K and his staff will be able to put together a more than capable gameplan if indeed Ryan is out for any length of time.

[gwlaw99]

Is there a reason that they won't say what the injury is?

[subzero02]

This is terrible... He really was starting to reach another level in his play

[cptnflash]

I would say you did not read my post.

K will make the best of the situation. Amile and Alex may very well garner valuable game experience. I think Hairston will mostly be a back up to Mason. If we get Kelly back by early Feb, the kid we ALL value heavily, we could ultimately end up being a better team than we have been.

It's ok to try to be positive.

If we get Ryan back by early February, I'll be ecstatic. Thinking positively right now means hoping that Ryan's injury isn't too severe and that he's able to recover quickly and return to the team at full strength and effectiveness. In that sense, I'm totally being positive. But thinking that his absence will somehow make us a better team in the long run is being unrealistic. If that were the case, Coach would have been playing him fewer minutes to begin with.

[-jk]

Is there a reason that they won't say what the injury is?

K rarely does. Cone of Silence.

-jk

[atomicdukie]

I just saw this report saying Ryan will be out for 2-4 weeks...still fingers crossed but would be GREAT news if this report is accurate

http://www.sbnation.com/college-bask...e-devils-ankle