Fast Breaks...this year versus last year

[bedeviled]

As soon as I considered it, I knew my last post was going to be laborious. So, before I posted, I did a little homework to thank everyone for putting up with my junk. This post is my apology gift.

TruBlu relayed the impression that “we seem to be getting better shots, earlier in the shot clock. Last year it seemed that we had many more "hurried" shots taken at or near the end of the shot clock.” To get more of a sense of our transition game, I went through the play-by-play of the first 8 games of 2011 and 2012 to determine the shot-clock use during transition play.

• I did not count plays where the defense could get set prior to the offense initiation - fouls, OOB (except for made baskets), subs.
• I did not include the last 5 minutes of the game where subs & stall tactics cloud the picture.
• I did not include offense after an offensive rebound.

Caveats:

• The data was hand gathered and calculated…I’d be shocked if it was error-free.
• The data does not include fouls/free throws…it doesn’t say anything about FGs missed due to a foul or additional point from FTs.
• The data does not give a full picture of transition efficiency as possessions/turnovers/OR are not included. Unfortunately, it involved too much interpretation (and work!) of the raw play-by-play to include lots of variables.

Hopefully these flaws cancel each other out when comparing values. Anyway, take it for what it is worth….a crude way to look at when we shot in transition and if they were quality shots.

Year	Time off clock	FG	FGA	3P	3PA
2011	0-7 sec	13	24	2	7
2011	8-14 sec	38	70	11	22
2011	15-21 sec	43	87	14	31
2011	22-28 sec	15	36	4	11
2011	29-35 sec	13	22	4	7
2011	total	122	239	35	78
2012	0-7 sec	27	50	5	16
2012	8-14 sec	34	75	13	31
2012	15-21 sec	31	74	7	22
2012	22-28 sec	20	43	6	12
2012	29-35 sec	4	12	2	7
2012	total	116	254	33	88

FGs.JPG3Ps.JPGeFG.JPG

[dragoneye776]

Wow this is great data. Thanks for putting all of this together. So the evidence does support that we are taking shots earlier in the shot clock this year. However, i find it an odd anomaly that in 2011, would field goal percentage late in the shot clock was so much higher than it was this year. Could you specify on what that was from? Perhaps, when our plays were well defended and we just had to chuck up a 3, Austin and Andre were better at that than our shooters from this year?

[toooskies]

Small sample size.

[bedeviled]

... field goal percentage late in the shot clock was so much higher than it was this year. Could you specify on what that was from?

Short answer: No.
1. The play-by-play is schematic enough, but this is worsened because I was trying to plow through the numbers and didn’t record “extra” info. All I have left is scattered numbers and spinning eyes.
2. toooskies is right - poor sample size.

Late shot-clock eFG% due to skilled 3P specialists?
If you look at the table, there is only a small sample size for the last part of the shot clock. Our 3P shots in 2011 and 2012 were 4/7 and 2/7, respectively. I don’t think too much can be deduced from those numbers…especially because one of the 4/7 was Thornton’s Kansas prayer. With the equal, low sample size, I don’t think this subset of data makes any statement about which year had better marksmen.

Late shot-clock eFG% due to clutch 3P specialists?
Well, perhaps our 2011 snipers were just cool under pressure due to their comfort level with the dwindling shot clock. The low number of shots in this stage suggests that this may not be the case (Also, the distribution of attempts across the seconds of the final stage was not significantly different between years). Actually, one of the surprising things to me is that, in 2011, our shots are still weighted toward the earlier end of the shot clock. We apparently were not holding the ball forever; we just weren’t pushing the early transition.

Late shot-clock eFG% simply a trend of better eFG% overall?
Another surprising thing to me is the eFG% throughout the possession last year. It suggests that we are not getting better looks than last year…or at least not finishing them as well.
Good throughout the possession and low number of late possessions aside, though, you are right - we shot exceptionally well at the end of the shot clock last year…including 2Ps which has a greater sample size. I don’t know what to tell you; I don’t think the answer is in this data.

End of Shot-Clock FG%
Year	2P%	3P%
2011	0.6	0.571429
2012	0.4	0.285714

So, you can’t tell me anything?
Hmmmm. Well, maybe there’s something of interest to you. Late in the possession in 2011, we got more points from 2Ps than from 3Ps as we took more than double the number of 2Ps than 3Ps. In fact, this was a pretty consistent across our possession last year.

Shot selection
Time off clock	3P/FG%
0-7 sec	0.291667
8-14 sec	0.314286
15-21 sec	0.356322
22-28 sec	0.305556
29-35 sec	0.318182
average	0.32636
0-7 sec	0.32
8-14 sec	0.413333
15-21 sec	0.297297
22-28 sec	0.27907
29-35 sec	0.583333
average	0.346457

It appears that our basic shot selection was stable throughout the possession in 2011. Perhaps our offense continued as usual in the late seconds, allowing those late shots to come within our normal rhythm (whatever that may have been, lol)? IDK.

Maybe it would be interesting to see what in the 2012 transition offense leads to our taking a considerably greater percentage of 3s in the 8-14 second range. And, yes, maybe we are just chunking up desperation junk at the end of the shot clock this year.