Remember when we were in "great shape" for a number of bigs? No, the other time

[UrinalCake]

Around this time a year ago we were considered to be in great shape for several bigs in the class of 2012, a class that is loaded with big men. Yet Tony Parker, Mitch McGary, Alex Poythress, Perry Ellis, Nerlens Noel, etc. all ended up at other schools, (some by our choice, reportedly). Thankfully Mason chose to stay another year and we picked up Amile late in the game.

Around the boards there was some discussion that perhaps some of those misses were okay because we needed to save the scholarship for the class of 2013, where we were also in great shape for a number of even better bigs. Now Julius Randle, Austin Nichols, Beejay Anya, and probably others I've forgotten are off the board. We're now all in on Jabari Parker, but even with him our interior would be somewhat unproven and not very deep.

Coming into last season, I thought we were at a critical juncture and that we needed to showcase our big men in order to attract some of these recruits. We had the horses to do it - Mason, Ryan, and Miles (who was a first round NBA pick, for pete's sake!) - and Coach K even stated at the start of the season that our offense would focus on them. Yet as the season progressed, we once again resorted to hucking up threes. We couldn't get the ball to our bigs, for a variety of reasons that have been well discussed here on the boards, and from the standpoint of an elite high school prospect watching us play I honestly can't say I blame them for choosing other schools based on our style of play.

So... am I just fooling myself in holding out hope that we'll land an elite, back-to-the-basket big man? Or is it time for me to accept that Elton and Carlos were aberrations in our long history of guard-centric offense and perimeter-oriented big men? Don't get me wrong, I love watching our team play and I'll cheer like crazy for our guys no matter who we have, but I'm growing skeptical about our outlook for the next 2-3 years based on some of the recent recruiting misses.

[dcdevil2009]

Around this time a year ago we were considered to be in great shape for several bigs in the class of 2012, a class that is loaded with big men. Yet Tony Parker, Mitch McGary, Alex Poythress, Perry Ellis, Nerlens Noel, etc. all ended up at other schools, (some by our choice, reportedly). Thankfully Mason chose to stay another year and we picked up Amile late in the game.

Around the boards there was some discussion that perhaps some of those misses were okay because we needed to save the scholarship for the class of 2013, where we were also in great shape for a number of even better bigs. Now Julius Randle, Austin Nichols, Beejay Anya, and probably others I've forgotten are off the board. We're now all in on Jabari Parker, but even with him our interior would be somewhat unproven and not very deep.

Coming into last season, I thought we were at a critical juncture and that we needed to showcase our big men in order to attract some of these recruits. We had the horses to do it - Mason, Ryan, and Miles (who was a first round NBA pick, for pete's sake!) - and Coach K even stated at the start of the season that our offense would focus on them. Yet as the season progressed, we once again resorted to hucking up threes. We couldn't get the ball to our bigs, for a variety of reasons that have been well discussed here on the boards, and from the standpoint of an elite high school prospect watching us play I honestly can't say I blame them for choosing other schools based on our style of play.

So... am I just fooling myself in holding out hope that we'll land an elite, back-to-the-basket big man? Or is it time for me to accept that Elton and Carlos were aberrations in our long history of guard-centric offense and perimeter-oriented big men? Don't get me wrong, I love watching our team play and I'll cheer like crazy for our guys no matter who we have, but I'm growing skeptical about our outlook for the next 2-3 years based on some of the recent recruiting misses.

I'm of the opinion that a back to the basket big for the sake of having one isn't the best plan. Carlos and Brand (and Shelden) all had all-ACC caliber, traditional point guards to feed them the ball. Unless we've got someone to get the ball into the post, while also forcing the defense to respect the perimeter, then a back to the basket big is going to be one dimensional and easily defended. Look at what Mason did with Kyrie compared to Seth, a converted 2 running the point.

[Dukehky]

I'm of the opinion that a back to the basket big for the sake of having one isn't the best plan. Carlos and Brand (and Shelden) all had all-ACC caliber, traditional point guards to feed them the ball. Unless we've got someone to get the ball into the post, while also forcing the defense to respect the perimeter, then a back to the basket big is going to be one dimensional and easily defended. Look at what Mason did with Kyrie compared to Seth, a converted 2 running the point.

Avery and Jay Will were great, great scorers and above average passers, but neither was Stockton or anything out there. Paulus with Shelden, or if you're talking about Duhon are nowhere near in the same class as them.

That being said, we get guards, we don't get back to the basket bigs. Lance, and all of the Plumlees, and Ryan were all recruited as stretch four types. Miles and Mason were both said to have good handle, vision, and decent outside shots. They were not recruited as back to the basket players. Yeah Mason looked great with Kyrie, but what does that have to do with recruiting big name back to the basket players? I know they're not necessary, but they're sure nice to have.

I could not agree more with the OP's position. I just don't see them coming, and I'm not sure why, and my optimism about that situation is decreasing.

[Kedsy]

Avery and Jay Will were great, great scorers and above average passers, but neither was Stockton or anything out there. Paulus with Shelden, or if you're talking about Duhon are nowhere near in the same class as them.

That being said, we get guards, we don't get back to the basket bigs. Lance, and all of the Plumlees, and Ryan were all recruited as stretch four types. Miles and Mason were both said to have good handle, vision, and decent outside shots. They were not recruited as back to the basket players. Yeah Mason looked great with Kyrie, but what does that have to do with recruiting big name back to the basket players? I know they're not necessary, but they're sure nice to have.

I could not agree more with the OP's position. I just don't see them coming, and I'm not sure why, and my optimism about that situation is decreasing.

How many "elite back-to-the-basket big men" do you think are out there each year who don't come to Duke? Not many. Frankly, most of the guys mentioned in the OP's post aren't back-to-the-basket types (far as I know, none of McGary, Poythress, Ellis, Randle, Nichols, or Jabari Parker get much of their offense with their back to the basket). However, one guy who does play that way is Marshall Plumlee, who did come to Duke. He was never considered a stretch four type by anybody.

Guys like Tony Parker (#24 RSCI) and Beejay Anya (#40 RSCI) might play with their back to the baskets, but they wouldn't be ready to contribute in their freshman or probably even sophomore years. Remember Tyler Adams, and all the consternation on the board when he decommitted from Duke to go to Georgetown? Well, Tyler only managed to earn 24 total minutes the entire season with Georgetown last year. He wouldn't have helped at Duke.

So, personally, I think this whole issue is a big brouhaha over nothing.

[uh_no]

How many "elite back-to-the-basket big men" do you think are out there each year who don't come to Duke? Not many. Frankly, most of the guys mentioned in the OP's post aren't back-to-the-basket types (far as I know, none of McGary, Poythress, Ellis, Randle, Nichols, or Jabari Parker get much of their offense with their back to the basket). However, one guy who does play that way is Marshall Plumlee, who did come to Duke. He was never considered a stretch four type by anybody.

Guys like Tony Parker (#24 RSCI) and Beejay Anya (#40 RSCI) might play with their back to the baskets, but they wouldn't be ready to contribute in their freshman or probably even sophomore years. Remember Tyler Adams, and all the consternation on the board when he decommitted from Duke to go to Georgetown? Well, Tyler only managed to earn 24 total minutes the entire season with Georgetown last year. He wouldn't have helped at Duke.

So, personally, I think this whole issue is a big brouhaha over nothing.

It's been 2 years since a final 4....people are getting antsy!

[tommy]

How many "elite back-to-the-basket big men" do you think are out there each year who don't come to Duke? Not many. Frankly, most of the guys mentioned in the OP's post aren't back-to-the-basket types (far as I know, none of McGary, Poythress, Ellis, Randle, Nichols, or Jabari Parker get much of their offense with their back to the basket). However, one guy who does play that way is Marshall Plumlee, who did come to Duke. He was never considered a stretch four type by anybody.

Guys like Tony Parker (#24 RSCI) and Beejay Anya (#40 RSCI) might play with their back to the baskets, but they wouldn't be ready to contribute in their freshman or probably even sophomore years. Remember Tyler Adams, and all the consternation on the board when he decommitted from Duke to go to Georgetown? Well, Tyler only managed to earn 24 total minutes the entire season with Georgetown last year. He wouldn't have helped at Duke.

So, personally, I think this whole issue is a big brouhaha over nothing.

But what about having bigs to defend inside players? That ain't nothing.

[brevity]

So... am I just fooling myself in holding out hope that we'll land an elite, back-to-the-basket big man? Or is it time for me to accept that Elton and Carlos were aberrations in our long history of guard-centric offense and perimeter-oriented big men?

Many will disagree with me, but I think you should accept the latter. While Coach K is certainly capable of landing the elite big man of armchair recruiting dreams -- I don't want to diminish his ability -- it doesn't seem like a make-or-break priority. Under his watch, in general, Duke basketball isn't really about that. I would go so far as to say that fans who are consistently frustrated about losing big men recruits are perhaps unknowingly (and naively) trying to shape Duke into another school. Maybe a school very close by.

One of things I like about college basketball is seeing players in other uniforms who would have been great at Duke. It tells me that recruiting gems are to be found everywhere, and the parity of the sport is very real. Winning championships would be a lot less invigorating if it felt predetermined. Fortunately, titles are not won by comparing rosters.

[NSDukeFan]

But what about having bigs to defend inside players? That ain't nothing.

But what about giving the staff the benefit of the doubt? We have had pretty good success with these Plumlees and we have one on the roster with four years of eligibility left. Despite the misses with McGary and Parker, the staff ended up with Amile, who appears to have the potential to be an outstanding defensive player and should be able to defend inside once Mason and Ryan are gone.
I guess there are always clouds on the horizon, but you have to look awfully hard for them when the team has been in the top 10 for 94 weeks and is set up so well for the future. It would be nice to have another big, Duke will likely be fine with the stable of tall wings on the roster.

[tele]

But what about having bigs to defend inside players? That ain't nothing.

not to mention having a second big to go against in practice. So would there be a two year gap now between Marshall and another center recruit? This would become a concern at some point one would think.

[davekay1971]

But what about having bigs to defend inside players? That ain't nothing.

Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubeck.

Lance was undersized but a very good interior defender. Zoubeck, once that light went on and he was able to avoid fouling, was a very, very good interior defender.

The bottom line is that, the way Duke plays, and has played for the majority of K's time here, Duke doesn't depend on a classic back-to-the-basket scorer to succeed. K knows what to do with such a guy when he has one (see Brand, Elton), but he also knows how to run a successful offense (see 2010) without one.

Most of the consternation I see on the boards seems to revolve around the perceived need for a back-to-the-basket big for offensive balance and, to some degree, worry about missing out on these recruits because, well, someone else is getting them when we recruited them. The back-to-the-basket big seems to have become something of a great white buffalo on this board...that highly desired catch that becomes more desired simply because we can't catch it.

Duke has had, by my count, two really elite back-to-the-basket offensive players in K's time here. Those would be Brand and Boozer. Laettner was good back-to-the-basket, but he was lethal pulling centers out onto the perimeter. The Landlord was a great defensive center and a good offensive one by the last 2 years at Duke. Lord knows he didn't arrive at Duke as a back-to-the-basket offensive monster. So we won one natty with a great back-to-the-basket guy in the offense...and, of course, Boozer was our 3rd or 4th offensive option after JWill, Battier, and, sometimes, Dunleavy...and Boozer was injured for the stretch run in 2001, save for the last 2 games of the NCAAT.

I agree, however, that having a very good interior defender is crucial given our style of aggressive overplay on the perimeter defense. Laettner was not a great interior defender, but he was good. So were Zoubek, Brand, Boozer, Williams (was great). Other guys who made the interior great defensively in some of our more successful years were Lance Thomas, G Hill, Tony Lang and Battier (who were, of course, anything but great back-to-the-basket offensive players). Well, ok, Grant was great at everything. I'm sure I'm missing other guys as well. But you get my drift.

[Starter]

Contrary to this thread, I don't think people necessarily are pining for a "back-to-the-basket" Tractor Traylor style big man. (If they are, they shouldn't be.) I think people are hungry for merely a super-elite talent with size. No offense to the Plumlees, because they've been solid players for Duke, but that's not really what I mean. I mean someone like Cousins, Davis, Randle, Griffin, Zeller (either one) -- even some guys we've missed on, like Monroe and Patterson, would have fit that bill for Duke. Boozer, Brand and Shelden Williams qualified: They had post-up games, and they all anchored the team down low to a degree; though none of them were midgets, they weren't classic centers either at under 6-foot-10. All I'm talking about is a guy who can hold his own in the post and that you have to gameplan around defensively. Mason's the closest thing we've had to that, given his high school pedigree and talent level, but it's not like he's Blake Griffin out there in terms of impact or level of threat. Past that, I think McRoberts actually came close size- and talent-wise, he just lacked the killer instinct and supporting cast to put it all together. Zoubek and Thomas rounded into solid role players on a championship team -- I still contend Zoubek played at an elite level for a month and a half -- but weren't elite talents. Duke has scored some super-elite instant impact talents the past few years -- Kyrie, Rivers and possibly Sulaimon, and Cook might have been before his medical setbacks -- but they've all been guards.

That's why I think some people would have preferred Randle to even a player as good as Jabari Parker, even with the great backstory and superb game that Parker has. Randle had skills, size and the ability to balance Duke's lineup. Parker, as good as he is, would be out of position at the 4, though he'd be the jewel of a loaded set of wing players. Don't get me wrong, I want him.

Note that there's no need to get desperate to fill some mythical size quotient. Tyler Adams doesn't look like much. Having seen Tony Parker in person, though he has the tools to be a solid college player, he's far from the second coming of Elton Brand and needs a lot of work. The best thing would still be to get the most elite talent, and beat teams on your own terms. Krzyzewski's always loved that Battier-Carrawell-Deng prototype anyway, a multi-talented player with length who can play and guard a variety of positions. It's just, we'd all love to see that one Randle-type talent down low to bring it all together.

I think 2014 is going to bring a UK-style class and the answer to a lot of our questions at a variety of positions. Perhaps that's wishful thinking, but K seems on the cusp of something big for that class. Until then, we'll just have to watch some really good teams.

[JasonEvans]

You all should know by now that defense at Duke is not a one-on-one thing. We defend opposing big men a variety of ways, not just by putting another big man on them. As someone mentioned, Laettner was not the greatest defender, yet Duke did a number of Shaq back in the day by making it nearly impossible for the LSU guards to get the ball to him in good position.

I think the notion that the Duke D needs an elite big bodied dude is not entirely true and we already know that the offense does just fine without being anchored by a traditional center. Frankly, I think Amile, Marshall, and others currently on the roster can do a fine job (assuming we get no one else) for the next few years.

-Jason "then again, I am always an optimist about Duke and 25+ years of being a fan has taught me that trusting K to figure it out tends to work out pretty nicely" Evans

[Starter]

You all should know by now that defense at Duke is not a one-on-one thing. We defend opposing big men a variety of ways, not just by putting another big man on them. As someone mentioned, Laettner was not the greatest defender, yet Duke did a number of Shaq back in the day by making it nearly impossible for the LSU guards to get the ball to him in good position.

I think the notion that the Duke D needs an elite big bodied dude is not entirely true and we already know that the offense does just fine without being anchored by a traditional center. Frankly, I think Amile, Marshall, and others currently on the roster can do a fine job (assuming we get no one else) for the next few years.

-Jason "then again, I am always an optimist about Duke and 25+ years of being a fan has taught me that trusting K to figure it out tends to work out pretty nicely" Evans

Good point, in terms of defense. Our issues last season in that regard stemmed from the backcourt.

[Kedsy]

But what about having bigs to defend inside players? That ain't nothing.

Agreed. And I admit our current roster for next season is a bit thin on bigs, but with Marshall, Alex, Amile, and Josh, I think we'll have enough size to defend adequately.

Clearly we need to have several big players on the roster to remain competitive defensively. However, that's not what this thread seems to be about. In the six years since our last great back-to-the-basket center, we have successfully recruited six top 25 (according to RSCI) players 6'8 or taller who were capable of defending inside, plus four other 6'8 or taller guys outside the top 25 who were capable of doing so (including a guy who was top 15 before he reclassified and a guy who ended up as a first round NBA draft pick). That seems like plenty of big defenders to me.

As Starter said, what people are really pining for are "super-elite talent with size" type players. But what I think these people are missing is those types are few and far between. According to RSCI, here are the number of top 25 players who were 6'10 or taller as high school seniors since 2006 (Shelden Williams's senior year at Duke):

2012: 5
2011: 2
2010: 1
2009: 3
2008: 3
2007: 4
2006: 5

So, 23 such players in 7 years. And in that time, Duke successfully recruited two of the 23 players (Mason Plumlee (#18) and Brian Zoubek (#25), plus Ryan Kelly, who was #14, but only 6'9 as a senior in high school, according to RSCI). In that same time period, Kentucky recruited three such players (although granted all three were top 5 guys, not just top 25). UNC recruited two. It's hard for me to look at this and see a systemic recruiting failure at Duke.

[Bob Green]

I think people are hungry for merely a super-elite talent with size.

I agree with you. It would be nice to sign a Top 20 center or power forward. We keep missing.

-- I still contend Zoubek played at an elite level for a month and a half --

Zoubek was overwhelmed by injuries. Without the health issues we would have seen Zoubek play at an elite level for two full seasons. I truly believe that.

I think 2014 is going to bring a UK-style class and the answer to a lot of our questions at a variety of positions.

What big men are out there? I know about Jahlil Okafor but who else? Talented big men don't grow on trees.

[azzefkram]

Remember Tyler Adams, and all the consternation on the board when he decommitted from Duke to go to Georgetown? Well, Tyler only managed to earn 24 total minutes the entire season with Georgetown last year. He wouldn't have helped at Duke.

I actually agree with much of what you say but Tyler Adams is a poor comp. He only managed to earn 24 minutes due to a medical issue not a skill issue.

[jimsumner]

There a small number of prep big men in each class capable of handling Duke's academics and contributing on the court.

But there are some.

And they are all confronted with an incredible amount of negative recruiting regarding Duke's alleged propensity to bury its big men as screeners and rebounders, while those entitled guys on the perimeter jack up 3s with impunity.

We all know this isn't true but we aren't teenagers getting this from every school out there recruiting against Duke.

That said, Okafor has publicly mocked this narrative. So, maybe he's smarter than the average bear.

Of course, Okafor is class of 2014, which doesn't help Duke get through next season.

I think the angst for next season is related to two questions.

The first is simple. How good is Marshall Plumlee?

And it's a good question. We haven't actually seen him in over a year and we'll have to wait a tad longer. But by all accounts, he's bigger, stronger and more skilled than he was the last time he appeared on stage. His coaches and teammates have praised him and expect him to be really good next season.

Of course, he's not going to start this season and despite all the things he can and will learn in practice, a big part of the learning curve can only be learned in real games. So, he'll be a redshirt sophomore next season, starting for the first time.

Of course, part 2, he'll still be more experienced than a Marcus Lee or an Austin Nichols will be at the same point.

But even if he's an impact player next season, he's going to be an impact player for 30 minutes per game. Somebody has to play center for those other 10.

That's the second question.

Josh Hairston is 240 but only 6-7. I would like for Josh to embrace more of his inner DeJuan Blair and less of his inner Trajan Langdon. But Hairston has worked hard on his game and his body and I suspect he'll be in the mix at the 5.

Then there's Amile Jefferson, who has delighted the Duke fan base thus far with his energy, length, athleticism and personality. He's a keeper.

Jefferson is likely to play lots of 3 this season. But with the arrival of Hood, Jones, Ojelye, maybe Parker, maybe the return of Dawkins, it seems to me that Jefferson will be playing more inside next season. He seems awfully thin for extended time at the 5 but he says he's put on 15 pounds since arriving at Duke and we're not looking for extended time at the 5, just a few minutes here and there. If he gets to 225 or so, no reason he can't fill in at the 5.

It should be noted that Jefferson, Nichols and Lee are almost exactly the same size. If Nichols or Lee was the answer to the question, why couldn't Jefferson be the answer?

Murphy? Maybe. He's as big as McLeod, Battier or Thomas and all of them played some 5 at Duke.

Todd Zafirovski should be back as a fifth-year senior next season. He's likely just a practice player but he's big enough to help in that role. Patrick Johnson got some place-holder minutes a few years back and Zafirovski is at least as good as Johnson.

As I've stated elsewhere, I think Duke will look for a one-year grad student should one become available. Depth for next season but wouldn't tie up a scholarship for more than one season. A Justin Knox analog. But no guarantee one will pop up on the radar screen.

But I would not expect Duke to go after a juco or a lower-rated project, just to have another 5 on the roster. Duke would have loved Randle, would have liked Nichols or Lee. But I think Duke will be fine with a Plumlee/Hairston/Jefferson/?? rotation at the 5 for next season, while waiting on Okafor.

[Kedsy]

I actually agree with much of what you say but Tyler Adams is a poor comp. He only managed to earn 24 minutes due to a medical issue not a skill issue.

You may be right. But in the 6 games he played, he only played 4 minutes a game. I still don't think he would have contributed at Duke last season (or this season, for that matter).

[tommy]

But what about giving the staff the benefit of the doubt? We have had pretty good success with these Plumlees and we have one on the roster with four years of eligibility left. Despite the misses with McGary and Parker, the staff ended up with Amile, who appears to have the potential to be an outstanding defensive player and should be able to defend inside once Mason and Ryan are gone.
I guess there are always clouds on the horizon, but you have to look awfully hard for them when the team has been in the top 10 for 94 weeks and is set up so well for the future. It would be nice to have another big, Duke will likely be fine with the stable of tall wings on the roster.

Amile looks like he's going to be a fine defender at the 4 and maybe the 3, but he's listed at 195 pounds. He's skinny. I'm not saying that Tony Parker is the next coming of anybody worth mentioning, but he weighs 275 pounds. Mitch McGary weighs 250. Julius Randle weighs what, 240-245? Not in the same league in terms of ability to bang with big guys underneath and not get pushed around. Sure, Marshall Plumlee weighs 235, but he is completely unproven, and even that weight does not ensure strength down low. Ryan weighs 235 as well, after all, and he has had some trouble in this area.

I think what most folks are feeling we need is someone who, even if he is not bulky per se, like a Parker or Randle or Boozer or Brand (I hate even putting Parker in the same sentence as the others) at least has a combination of height and thickness and, preferably, athleticism (like Miles and Mason, and hopefully Marshall) that they can hang with strong, physical inside players, because inevitably we're going to have to deal with those types of opponents.

[jimsumner]

Amile looks like he's going to be a fine defender at the 4 and maybe the 3, but he's listed at 195 pounds. He's skinny. I'm not saying that Tony Parker is the next coming of anybody worth mentioning, but he weighs 275 pounds. Mitch McGary weighs 250. Julius Randle weighs what, 240-245? Not in the same league in terms of ability to bang with big guys underneath and not get pushed around. Sure, Marshall Plumlee weighs 235, but he is completely unproven, and even that weight does not ensure strength down low. Ryan weighs 235 as well, after all, and he has had some trouble in this area.

I think what most folks are feeling we need is someone who, even if he is not bulky per se, like a Parker or Randle or Boozer or Brand (I hate even putting Parker in the same sentence as the others) at least has a combination of height and thickness and, preferably, athleticism (like Miles and Mason, and hopefully Marshall) that they can hang with strong, physical inside players, because inevitably we're going to have to deal with those types of opponents.

Jefferson told us that he was 192 when he came to Duke and is now up to 208. He expects to continue that trend.