Twilight: BD II
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Rise of the Guardians
The Hobbit: Pt 1
This is 40
Zero Dark Thirty
Other (post your pick)
Well, my 5th movie selection was Rise of the the Guardians. It was a tough call for me....I went with a 2nd kids movie. That will be the reason I lost. I WISH I had gone with my first gut choice for #5, which was Les Miserables. Every preview I see of that is amazing. The fan base for that musical is huge. People are going to go see it several times. It's going to be #5. I think there's a good chance that Zero Dark Thirty will be #6.
But, I think you are right that it has a real chance to be #5 in our contest. I think Zero Dark Thirty is a bit of a longer shot.
As an aside, I am starting to think film #5 may only need to make $120 mil or so, far less than the $150 we usually project. I think it is very possible that Lincoln, Django, and Les Miz all end up between $110 mil and $125 mil giving us a real dog fight for spot #5.
-Jason "I am hearing that This is 40 is going to be more Funny People ($50 mil) than Knocked Up ($150 mil)" Evans
Uh-oh... the early Les Miz reviews are not all that good. Currently at 63% on RT with 12 fresh and 7 rotten reviews. That is not good.
The Hobbit, which I saw and will post a review in a day or two, is at 72% -- 21 fresh, 8 rotten.
-Jason "reviews for Django should start coming in over the weekend as it was screened to a lot of critics today" Evans
Early reviews of Django are in and, well, they're absolutely spectacular. Will this mean box office gold? Not sure. The film's long, as Jason has noted. And one of the consistent raves in the reviews is that it's Tarantino violence at it's most violent, which isn't for everybody.
But the reviews do indicated that this is a crowd-pleaser film, giving the audience the same kind of payoff that Inglourious Basterds delivered. I suspect people who don't like Tarantino's films because of the violence will stay away, those that like his films because of the dialogue and violence will love it. Whether or not glowing reviews and word of mouth will attract enough non-Tarantino fans or enough repeat business to overcome the long running time and outperform what Tarantino has historically done is probably the biggest question.
Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."
Django has a shot to be a big hit and make our Top 5.
-Jason "I think Zero Dark Thirty is out as a contender... it now looks like it won't move outside the NY/LA market until the 2nd week of January" Evans
So it looks like the standings (of the films that have a chance) is as follows.
Numbers are from RT.
Twilight - $276.8M (released 5 weeks)
Skyfall - $271.9M (released 6 weeks)
(A note of curiosity, Brave..one of our summer winners, falls into this slot with $237.2M, so it was outperformed by 2 winter movies.)
Wreck It Ralph - $168.7M (released 7 weeks)
Lincoln - $107.7M (released 5 weeks)
The Hobbit - $84.6M (released 1 week)
Anybody else that has not been released doesn't have a chance. It will be interesting to see if Django or one of the others has enough time to make a play at Lincoln. IF I had to choose one, Django would be it, I don't think the others will have enough broad appeal to make it happen.
The Hobbit did $36 million to win the weekend fairly easily. It was a fairly stiff 56% drop from its opening weekend, but who cares? This film is at almost $150 million after 2 weekends and will easily be in our Top 5.
New films Jack Reacher ($15.6 mil) and This is 40 ($12 mil) came in 2nd and 3rd this weekend but neither of them are even remote contenders in our contest. It is hard to see either of them making even $100 million in domestic boxoffice.
At this point, we are waiting to see what the Christmas movies bring, especially Django and Les Mis. Right now, the Top 5 are:
- Breaking Dawn II - $281.6 mil
- Skyfall - $279.9 mil
- Wreck-it Ralph - $179.9 mil
- Hobbit - $159.6 mil
- Lincoln - $116.7 mil
- Flight - $90.9 mil
- Rise of Guardians - $79.6 mil
- Life of Pi - $76.1 mil
The top 4 are locks. We await film #5 between Django, Les Mis, and Lincoln.
-Jason "so, who has a shot at going 5-for-5 at this point?" Evans
Awww man, so if Les Mis gets to 5th I have to share my victory with murpho and ncexnyc? Boo!
Here I was willing to go see it 25,000,000 times just to guarantee a nice 5-for-5 finish, but that hardly seems worth it anymore...
Looks like you may not need to buy all those tickets. I am hearing buzz that Les Mis is going to have a very big opening. Lots of people who never go see movies are eager to see this film. There is talks this is going to be the biggest Christmas Day film ever, passing Sherlock Holmes which made $24.6 mil in 2009.
-Jason "I am somewhat skeptical, but the buzz is getting loud!" Evans
I was curious to see how much the last musical that I liked did at the box office. "Chicago" opened on the 27th of 2002 and took in $170mil. Not much to compare between the two other than they are both musicals opening at Christmas, but the precedent is there for a musical to do well.
As I had alluded to earlier, Les Mis had a record-breaking opening day on Christmas. The numbers are not final yet, but early estimates are that Les Mis did $18 mil, a new Christmas Day record. It got an "A" Cinemascore, ensuring that audiences will be saying good things about it and perhaps indicating potential for repeat business.
Django Unchained appears to have done $15.5 mil, which is a HUGE number on Christmas Day for an R-Rated film that clearly cannot bring in a family audience. It got an "A-" Cinemascore, which is very high for a film with lots of violence and "N-words."
Both Les Mis and Django far outperformed what Hollywood had expected just a week or so ago.
The Hobbit did $10.8 mil and the new Billy Crystal/Bette Midler comedy Parental Guidance did $7 mil (saw this movie about a week ago... it wasn't that bad -- really predictable, but I did laugh several times).
--Jason "now we need to see how these new flicks do over the weekend" Evans
The Hobbit still rules Hollywood, but Django got better than expected numbers and women are the reason why. Interesting facts here...
http://movies.msn.com/movies/article.aspx?news=782457"Django" is doing better than expected in part because it is connecting with female moviegoers. Women made up 46 percent of the weekend audiences, a surprisingly high number given the film's violent subject matter and the fact that it's up against "Les Miz,' which skews very much female and played to audiences that were 67 percent women this weekend.
"Quentin Tarantino brings a broad audience," David Glasser, the Weinstein Company's chief operating officer, told TheWrap on Sunday, "but we've made a concerted effort to reach out to women with some of our TV spots and it worked."