OK, We have 2 sure things....and a few sure outs.
If you picked Twilight and Skyfall....you are definitely still in. Both are absolute locks for the Top 5.
If you took Wreck it Ralph....you are looking pretty good. It did $18M more and now sits at $121M. It will certainly do at least $18M more this weekend (probably closer to $20M). When all is said and doen this will end up around $175M, which is likely good enough to make the top 5.
If you picked Lincoln.....well, 4 score and 20 years from now you'll still be kicking yourself. It did $22M. Even if it has HUGE legs, and somehow makes it to $125M, that won't be enough, and I think it's highly unlikely that it will break $100M. (By the way, I saw it, and really enjoyed it. So powerful, and just amazing to think that's how intelligent men used to think about slaves - and women, for that matter....but I wouldn't see it again, and it won't do well with the younger crowd at all).
So this week comes Life of Pi, Rise of the Guardians, Red Dawn and Silver Linings Playbook. JE summed up why Pi likely won't make it. Red Dawn will be like Total Recall (a remake they should have left alone). That leaves Guardians. It certainly has a chance to do well. Lots of kids will see it this weekend (including mine) and it has decent early buzz (75% on rotten, though with not too many people in). That leaves Silver Linings. It's getting huge Oscar buzz, and seems very funny. It's the romantic comedy sleeper. I think this movie is going to approach $100M when all is said and done, and could be the true sleeper for our pool (though probably not enough to beat Guardians or Django).