Twilight: BD II
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Rise of the Guardians
The Hobbit: Pt 1
This is 40
Zero Dark Thirty
Other (post your pick)
Wreck-it-Ralph is showing very nice legs too, only dropping 44% in its third weekend to make $18.3 million. It stands at $121.4 million but is about to get some serious Thanksgiving competition from Rise of the Guardians as well as Life of Pi. Still, it looks like WIR is going to get to something north of $150 million and seems to have a strong shot at the Top 5, though it is going to be #4 or #5 if it makes it.
Flight has been eliminated from our competition. $61 mil through 3 weekends... no chance.
The other film from our contest that has already opened is Lincoln. It is so hard to tell what to make of this film's long-term boxoffice prospects. I have been telling everyone to go see it. Wonderful film. It opened to $21 million, a great number for a film that was only in 1500 theaters (Twilight was in 4000+). Still, Lincoln is going to have to have really, really, really long legs to get to $150 million if it starts at $21 million. It did get an "A" Cinemascore, so that means folks are likely telling their friends to go see it, but $150 million is a big number for a movie that is squarely aimed at the over-40 crowd. We'll see, but I am skeptical. I imagine everyone associated with this flick, including the studio, would be delighted if it made it to $100 million (it had a budget of $65 mil).
We will thin the herd a lot this week with the openings of Red Dawn (not gonna be a contender), Life of Pi (amazing, beautiful, wondrous film that is too spiritual and slow to get a huge mainstream audience), and Silver Linings Playbook (quirky adult drama with a crowd-pleasing ending but not a topic designed to make mega-bucks). Rise of the Guardians also opens and it could be a serious contender as a family film. I liked it and my kids did too. Dragged a bit but was a fresh take on some famous mythical characters.
-Jason "still wasaay too early to know how these Xmas movies are going to fare -- heck, even I haven't seen them yet" Evans
OK, We have 2 sure things....and a few sure outs.
If you picked Twilight and Skyfall....you are definitely still in. Both are absolute locks for the Top 5.
If you took Wreck it Ralph....you are looking pretty good. It did $18M more and now sits at $121M. It will certainly do at least $18M more this weekend (probably closer to $20M). When all is said and doen this will end up around $175M, which is likely good enough to make the top 5.
If you picked Lincoln.....well, 4 score and 20 years from now you'll still be kicking yourself. It did $22M. Even if it has HUGE legs, and somehow makes it to $125M, that won't be enough, and I think it's highly unlikely that it will break $100M. (By the way, I saw it, and really enjoyed it. So powerful, and just amazing to think that's how intelligent men used to think about slaves - and women, for that matter....but I wouldn't see it again, and it won't do well with the younger crowd at all).
So this week comes Life of Pi, Rise of the Guardians, Red Dawn and Silver Linings Playbook. JE summed up why Pi likely won't make it. Red Dawn will be like Total Recall (a remake they should have left alone). That leaves Guardians. It certainly has a chance to do well. Lots of kids will see it this weekend (including mine) and it has decent early buzz (75% on rotten, though with not too many people in). That leaves Silver Linings. It's getting huge Oscar buzz, and seems very funny. It's the romantic comedy sleeper. I think this movie is going to approach $100M when all is said and done, and could be the true sleeper for our pool (though probably not enough to beat Guardians or Django).
I'm guessing/hoping Ralph will do better this week than last because of Thanksgiving and the break from school.
I hope Silver Linings is a true sleeper. Of all the contender movies (outside of the locks) listed it was the one I thought looked most appealing. Plus it has a fairly early release date and plenty of time to stretch its legs, should it grow some. I made the mistake a few years ago of picking "Meet the Fockers" over "Megamind," and even though Fockers would eventually out gross "Megamind," it happened well after our contest had closed. For that reason, I don't take sleeper picks that are released after mid-December.
To me, the "Guardians" movie looks dumb, and "Wreck it Ralph" has been getting a ton of ad buys the past weeks. I know which one my elementary school kids want to see. Silver Linings is a long shot, but it's good to hear people saying it might have a shot...
"There can BE only one."
Little Fockers did pass Megamind, finishing with a boxoffice total of $148,438,600 to Megamind's $148,415,853. However, Little Fockers didn't pass Megamind until its very last few days of release, in mid-March. Keeping our "Top Movies of the Winter Holidays" contest open until Spring Break seemed a bit excessive.
Still, you make a good point about picking earlier movies. Not because the contest will end before their run is done, but because the earlier films have more time to capitalize on holiday moviegoing. The movies released before or over Thanksgiving will still probably be in theaters and in moviegoer's minds when schools are out in December. They get the benfit of the November as well as the December holidays. That is one reason I picked WIR for my top 5.
-Jason "I would not dismiss Guardians yet -- it is likely to be #1 over Thanksgiving and make something north of $60 mil from Wed -Sunday" Evans
I picked WIR for the same reason you did. Megamind had a similar early release and held on long enough to make the top 5. I learned my lesson.
"There can BE only one."
There has not been a large marketing campaign behind this film, nor is there very much buzz. Most expectations are that it will open to less than $15 million this weekend and probably only make about $40 mil total for its boxoffice run. There is simply not anything driving viewers to see this remake.
JE - how does it compare to the original (not the storyline....but just the movie overall)? I have to admit, the first one is sort of a guilty pleasure of mine.....
Incidentally, I wrote to JE about a separate matter, and told him that it's a holiday tradition of mine to take my kids to a movie on Thanksgiving Day (before we stuff ourselves at night). I've done it every year since my oldest daugther was 2, and she's now 14. Twice I've had to do it on days other than Thanksgiving, because we were at the beach at a place that had no theater. Here's what we've seen:
2000 - 102 Dalmations. My daughter was terrified. Her first trip to the movies. We left about half way through it.
2001 - Monsters, Inc. Probably my favorite. My daughter cried at the end when the door was crushed and cried out, "Oh no. Boo! I wanna see Boo!" the whole theater went "Awwwwww."
2002 - Santa Claus 2. A guilty pleasure of mine. Took my middle child as well (for first time). Remember being in back row and feeding her one Reeses Pieces piece at a time....mom was not happy.
2003 - Cat in the Hat. Without a doubt the worst of all the movies. So brutal to sit through, though my 5 year old and 3 year old liked it just fine.
2004 - Polar Express. Seen weekend after Thanksgiving. Loved it.
2005 - Lion, Witch and the Wardrobe. Seen 2 weeks after Thanksgiving. First I took my son to. Movie is way, way too long for a 2 year old to sit through, by the way.
2006 - Happy Feet. Actually saw it in Boston, even though we didn't live here at the time.
2007 - Bee Movie. 2nd worst movie, but tons better than Cat in the Hat
2008 - Madagascar 2. First while living in Boston
2009 - Fantastic Mr. Fox. One of my favorites, but none of my 3 kids liked it all that much.
2010 - Tangled. Moment I walked out I knew I had lost the DBR pickem pool, because I didn't have this in my top 5. All three of us loved it.
2011 - Muppet Movie. Actually really enjoyed this one too.
2012 - Going to see Rise of the Guardians. I would guess this might be the last year we go see a "kids" movie, as next year my youngest will be 10. Even this year my oldest is going "Can't we go see Skyfall?" Thankfully she wants NOTHING to do with Twilight.
a) a real sense of peril and a feeling that "wow, this kinda could happen."
b) a connection to the characters
This movie has neither of those qualities.
The invading force is the North Koreans. Sorry, but there ain't no way I can buy that. The logic behind the invasion is never there. The original really explained things in a simple way that appealed to the audience. This movie's plot seems pretty darn scattershot by comparison.
More importantly, I did not connect with any of the characters on screen. There are more "Wolverines" in this movie than in the original. They are much more faceless and personality-less than in the first one. Look back at that cast: Charlie Sheen, Patrick Swayze, C Thomas Howell, Jennifer Gray, Lea Thompson... every one of them went on to really significant careers and had performances (either before or after) that made them iconic. The guy who plays the Charlie Sheen character in this movie is Josh Peck, who apparently did a pre-teen comedy on Nickelodeon. One of the significant Wolverines this time around is Connor Cruise, Tom and Nicole Kidman's adopted son. He's pretty terrible.
I could say more, but one need only look at Rotten Tomatoes... 19%. It is just a bad movie.
--Jason "the director also had to save money to keep it within budget, so much of the action is blurry, handheld, shaky camera stuff that does not require lots of time or effort to shoot... it makes it impossible at times to even tell who is fighting who" Evans
Well this depresses me. I will still be seeing it in theaters however as the first Red Dawn is one of my all time favorite movies. I know you said there hasn't been a large marketing campaign but gee-whiz it sure seems like it. I cant turn on the tv without seeing it on every commercial break and my friends and I have been talking about it for the past year now. Idk maybe its just where I live.
LET'S GO DUKE!
Ummm, wow, the 5-day holiday period is not going at all as I had thought.
Rise of the Guardians is really underperforming. It looks like it is going to make about $30 million, maybe a little more than that, from the Wed-Sun holiday. That is a good number, but not nearly what is generally expected from a big studio animated project with a holiday opening. With a start like that, the movie is going to struggle to get to more than maybe $100 million.
Life of Pi is far outperforming the studio's modest expectations. It looks like it is going to come in around $22 mil for the weekend and just a shade under $30 million for the 5-day opening. There are indications that word of mouth is HUGE including an A Cinemascore rating. I am surprised because, even though I loved the film and found it beautiful, I thought it was too slow and spiritual to be a crowd-pleaser. With lots of award nominations likely to boost awareness throught December and January, I may have been too quick to write this film off in our contest. I still think $100 mil may be a real stretch, but it is dooing much better than anyone thought.
Silver Linings Playbook is sorta DOA at the boxoffice. It is looking at something less than $4 mil for the weekend and less than $6 mil for the 5-day holiday. Not going to be a contender in our contest. Red Dawn is going to do mid-teens for the weekend and about $20 mil from the 5-day holiday. It is getting an ok, but not great, B-cinemascore. Again, it is not going to be a contender.
Twilight and Skyfall are both steaming past the $200 mil mark this weekend, probably up into the $220 mil range. They are the #1 and #2 movies at theaters this weekend.
And Lincoln also seems to be holding up really well. Looking like it is going to do something in the range of $25 mil for the weekend and $35 mil over the 5-day holiday. That will put its take at about $60 mil with signs it will be a significant boxoffice player for many more weeks. I certainly wrote it off as a contender too soon.
--Jason "full numbers after the weekend is over" Evans
Last edited by JasonEvans; 11-23-2012 at 10:01 AM.
The final weekend numbers are in. The big stories appear to be:
Life of Pi making more than $22 mil for the weekend and $30.5 mil for the 5-day holiday. This is much better than many in Hollywood had predicted. This is a film that is supposed to get lots of awards consideration and should have long legs, so this is a good start for it. Still, it is a major longshot to make the $150+ mil needed to be in the Top 5.
Lincoln made $25 mil over the weekend, which was actually more than it made in its opening weekend last week. Clearly, word of mouth is through the roof and, despite my assertion that it would have trouble finding a mainstream audience, this film could be a real contender in our contest.
Rise of the Guardians is a disaster... from the standpoint of an animated kid flick. It made $23.7 mil over the weekend and just $32 mil over the 5-day holiday. Even by Dreamworks somewhat lower animation standards (compared to Disney), this was the worst opening for a Dreamworks animated film since Sinbad in 2003. That's bad! I had worried about the marketing on this flick as the trailers were confusing (to me) and not all that compelling. I think the trailers and ads did a poor job of conveying what kind of animated film it would be (action versus comedy). Anyway, with Wreck-it-Ralph still a player at the boxoffice (it made almost $17 mil this weekend), Guardians is in trouble. I'll be mildly surprised if it ends up making $100 million at this point.
Here are the standings through TGiving Sunday:
1. T:BD pt 2 - $227.3 mil
2. Skyfall - $221.4 mil
3. Wreck-it - $149.2 mil
4. Flight - $74.7 mil
5. Lincoln - $62.8 mil
--Jason "folks who follow me on Twitter already know this, but the word is that Django is going to be almost 3 hours long... which could be boxoffice poison" Evans
Well, the first weekend after Thanksgiving is always a very weak time for movies. There are rarely any significant releases. But, we are starting to see some trends among the films already open and in theaters.
Twilight and Skyfall were #1 and #2 again this weekend. No surprise there. They both made right around $17 million for the weekend and are now at about $250 mil each in boxoffice. Nuf said.
Lincoln was third this weekend and made another $13 million for a total of $83+ million. It is holding up very well and still has a decent shot to be our #5 film this season. More on that in a moment.
Rise of the Guardians, which a lot of people picked for the Top 5, is toast. It made $13 million this weekend and is at just under $49 million in total boxoffice. It will not even make it to $100 million. The film is a boxoffice disaster for a heavily promoted animated film. Dreamworks stock lost a few points because of disappointment over it. I am a bit surprised as I thought the movie was decent.
Life of Pi made about $12 million and stands at about $47 million. It too looks like it has little hope of reaching our Top 5, though it is still getting a good deal of Oscar buzz that could give it a boost as Awards Season really heats up in the next month or so.
As a side not, no one voted for it but Brad Pitt's Killing Them Softly was murdered at the boxoffice. It made less than $7 million in its opening weekend and reportedly got a rarely seen "F" Cinemascore, which is quite surprising considering the reviews for the film have been fairly good. I have not seen it -- it was not screened for critics in Atlanta -- so I cannot say why the public is reacting so viscerally to this film.
Once we get the final weekend numbers, I will post the "standings."
Of course, all that matters is which film will make it into the Top 5. We can say with some strong degree of certainty that Skyfall, Twilight, Wreck-it-Ralph, and Hobbit are going to be there. The quest for #5 is the question.
The buzz is that Quentin Tarantino, who has final cut approval on all his films, is refusing to cut down DJango Unchained very much and that it may carry a running time of close to 3 hours. That will hurt its boxoffice potential.
There is strong early buzz on This is 40. The first reviews are very good and the "Meet The Focker" movies have shown there is a Christmas market for raunchy comedies.
There is also some strong buzz on Zero Dark Thirty. It appears to be a very strong Oscar contender. I am unsure whether this film will spark some kind of patriotic nerve in the country or not, but I think it has potential.
And then there is Les Mis. There is a good bit of Oscar buzz around this film as well. Musicals do not have a great history at the boxoffice, but the marketing department at Universal is working overtime and I think they think they have a hit on their hands.
--Jason "we probably won't know for a month, but I think this could come down to Lincoln vs Les Mis vs This is 40" Evans
-Jason "good find, Nashville" Evans