View Poll Results: Which will be the Top 5 movies of the winter!

Voters
40. You may not vote on this poll
  • Flight

    4 10.00%
  • Wreck-it Ralph

    24 60.00%
  • Skyfall

    36 90.00%
  • Lincoln

    9 22.50%
  • Twilight: BD II

    35 87.50%
  • Silver Linings Playbook

    1 2.50%
  • Life of Pi

    4 10.00%
  • Rise of the Guardians

    10 25.00%
  • The Hobbit: Pt 1

    39 97.50%
  • Jack Reacher

    5 12.50%
  • This is 40

    0 0%
  • Zero Dark Thirty

    2 5.00%
  • Django Unchained

    8 20.00%
  • Les Miserables

    9 22.50%
  • Other (post your pick)

    1 2.50%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 61 to 80 of 150
  1. #61
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I thought Life of Pi was a bold box office pick, and I wanted you to succeed with it, but I couldn't shake the idea that it had a built-in comparison: Hugo.
    Argh!!! I should have thought of Hugo!! You are right that the comparison is quite apt. I had expected Life of Pi to have more action and I thought the animals would make it more bankable. I could be wrong, but I suspect you are right. Hugo made about $75 mil last winter and I suspect PI will do a similar number. Hugo also got nominated for 11 Academy Awards, winning 5 of them (all technical awards). I don't know if Pi will quite reach that level, but I would expect at least 4 or 5 technical award nominations and perhaps a best director nod for Ang Lee.

    -Jason "I shoulda gone with another kid flick-- Guardians-- or maybe Django" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  2. #62
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    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    That's the "Featured on RT" list from Rotten Tomatoes. And that's why "Lincoln" is doomed.
    Skyfall is going to obliterate anything else in the box office this weekend. In fact, Lincoln is mentioned only one other time on any of RT's headlines...and it opens this weekend.
    When your one headline is "Seven Facts Worth Knowing About Lincoln ", that's not exactly the thrilling hype you want.
    Lincoln does not open wide until next weekend. It is only in some very select cities and theaters this weekend. I believe the theater count for Lincoln this weekend is... 11.

    So, next weekend it goes up against Twilight 4, which will similarly dominate all the movie headlines. But, I doubt there are many (perhaps not any) people who want to see Twilight who would also want to see Lincoln. How many 12-17 year old female history buffs do you know?

    -Jason "Skyfall, which skews quite a bit older and more intellectual than Twilight, is the kind of film that would really hurt Lincoln's boxoffice, though I suspect Lincoln is a long-term boxoffice play, not a movie that ever scores a big opening weekend" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  3. #63
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    Feb 2008
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    Charlotte, North Carolina
    So, the above mention of rottentomatoes.com made me go there, and there I saw the poster for the Twilight movie. The three leads are in the most halfhearted "running towards the camera" pose I've ever seen, in a truly bland, generic poster. I have to think that the poster-makers in the studio marketing division had a bet along the lines of, "how lame can we make this poster and see if the studio heads will even notice?" We all know, as does the studio, that the Twilight audience is locked in and the poster will not translate to one dime more or less in box office, no matter how bad it is. I guarantee someone's got a case-of-beer bet on that poster being so lame and the studio heads not caring at all.
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  4. #64
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    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    So, the above mention of rottentomatoes.com made me go there, and there I saw the poster for the Twilight movie. The three leads are in the most halfhearted "running towards the camera" pose I've ever seen, in a truly bland, generic poster. I have to think that the poster-makers in the studio marketing division had a bet along the lines of, "how lame can we make this poster and see if the studio heads will even notice?" We all know, as does the studio, that the Twilight audience is locked in and the poster will not translate to one dime more or less in box office, no matter how bad it is. I guarantee someone's got a case-of-beer bet on that poster being so lame and the studio heads not caring at all.
    You are talking about this one, right?


    They also made this one, which is equally lame


    But it really does not matter.

    -Jason "the folks who love these movies would see them if the poster contained stick figures" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  5. #65
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    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "the folks who love these movies would see them if the poster contained stick figures" Evans
    Well, stick figures with Edward's and Jacob's heads on them. And maybe one of Jacob's arms for good measure.

    I'd be relieved that Twilight ends -- it's okay, I guess, though I see them on DVD/cable and am always one film behind -- but Stephenie Meyer says she hasn't necessarily closed the door on the saga. I imagine she'll write one more, and the studio stretches it out into 3 movies. Peter Jackson directs.

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Well, stick figures with Edward's and Jacob's heads on them. And maybe one of Jacob's arms for good measure.

    I'd be relieved that Twilight ends -- it's okay, I guess, though I see them on DVD/cable and am always one film behind -- but Stephenie Meyer says she hasn't necessarily closed the door on the saga. I imagine she'll write one more, and the studio stretches it out into 3 movies. Peter Jackson directs.
    I'm waiting for a sequel to The Host. I think it was a far better book than the twilight ones.
    LET'S GO DUKE!

  7. #67
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    Feb 2007
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    We got one sure-thing

    Skyfall did $87+ mil its opening weekend. It got an "A" Cinemascore and word of mouth is very strong (the Saturday and Sunday numbers were bumped up by Sony due to strong word of mouth). It will make over $200 mil. It is a mortal lock for our top 5.

    Wreck-it-Ralph had a nice hold in its second week, only dropping 32% from the opening weekend. It made $33 mil this weekend and sits just under $100 mil after 2 weekends. It certainly seems likely to make it to the coveted $150 mil mark, which should put it in the top 5. But, we need to see a could more weeks to know for sure. Unlike a summer animated film, it does not get big mid-week business as kids are in school, not on break.

    Flight also held up well, dropping a little less than 40% for a weekend number of about $15 million. But, with a total gross of less than $50 mil through 2 weekends, it is probably going to end up making less than $100 million total at the boxoffice. It won't make our top 5.

    One final word -- the film I loved but poo-pooed in terms of its chances to do huge boxoffice, Lincoln, opened to a massive $900,000 figure in the 11 theaters that were showing it. It basically sold out virtually every showing at those theaters. There seems to be a ton of buzz about this flick and the reviews are going to be excellent. I may have written it off too soon. We'll see next week when it expands into about 1500 more theaters. The Oscar buzz for this film is very strong too, so it should have long legs.

    -Jason "all of ya'll jealous of the fact that I get to see movies early... think of me on Wednesday when I am forced to sit through Twilight 4... blech!" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  8. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    ...

    -Jason "all of ya'll jealous of the fact that I get to see movies early... think of me on Wednesday when I am forced to sit through Twilight 4... blech!" Evans
    Do you have to stay awake?

    Need you be sober?

  9. #69
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    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by BD80 View Post
    Need you be sober?
    If I lived in Colorado or Washington, this movie might actually be fun!

    -Jason
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    If I lived in Colorado or Washington, this movie might actually be fun!

    -Jason
    Only if there were enough smoke to obscure the screen

  11. #71
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    Feb 2008
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    Washington/Baltimore

    Confused about Hobbit...

    Okay, just saw a trailer for the Hobbit movie and I'm confused. I didn't see any reference to a dragon. Saw 12 dwarfs, one wizard, and one reluctant hobbit; trolls; riddle contest with Gollum; but no dragon.

    Did they change to plot, or did I miss something?

    (I will be very, very disappointed of they changed the story and there is no dragon, Dale, etc.)

  12. #72
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    Seoul, Korea
    Quote Originally Posted by brumby041 View Post
    Okay, just saw a trailer for the Hobbit movie and I'm confused. I didn't see any reference to a dragon. Saw 12 dwarfs, one wizard, and one reluctant hobbit; trolls; riddle contest with Gollum; but no dragon.

    Did they change to plot, or did I miss something?

    (I will be very, very disappointed of they changed the story and there is no dragon, Dale, etc.)
    Welcome to the Hobbit... part 1 of 3... so yes, Smaug and Laketown and all will appear later.

  13. #73
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    Washington/Baltimore
    Quote Originally Posted by Deslok View Post
    Welcome to the Hobbit... part 1 of 3... so yes, Smaug and Laketown and all will appear later.
    Wow! Just did further research on the interwebs and confirmed a Hobbit trilogy. Not feeling good about this...

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    You are talking about this one, right?


    ...
    -Jason "the folks who love these movies would see them if the poster contained stick figures" Evans
    Quote Originally Posted by brumby041 View Post
    Wow! Just did further research on the interwebs and confirmed a Hobbit trilogy. Not feeling good about this...
    Maybe we just photoshop Bilbo's, Gandalf's, and Smaug's faces into the poster above and we've covered the promotion for the entire Hobbit trilogy ...

  15. #75
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    Apr 2008
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    Fayetteville, NC
    I know we're still slugging it out to deterime what the top 5 movies of the winter are, but I'm going on record now that the top movie of the summer will be, "The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones." Looks like a cross between Constantine, Underworld, and Twilight. Good looking cast of young people so that demographic will flock to see it.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    I know we're still slugging it out to deterime what the top 5 movies of the winter are, but I'm going on record now that the top movie of the summer will be, "The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones." Looks like a cross between Constantine, Underworld, and Twilight. Good looking cast of young people so that demographic will flock to see it.
    My wife really liked those books and is looking forward to the movie.
    LET'S GO DUKE!

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by ncexnyc View Post
    I know we're still slugging it out to deterime what the top 5 movies of the winter are, but I'm going on record now that the top movie of the summer will be, "The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones." Looks like a cross between Constantine, Underworld, and Twilight. Good looking cast of young people so that demographic will flock to see it.
    Just so we are clear, you are committed to voting for this movie in the poll next summer, am I right about that? Should be an easy pick for you given that you think it will be the #1 movie of the summer.

    It comes out on August 23rd. That is not a good release date. It is after many school and college-aged kids will have gone back to classes, making it difficult for them to attend mid-week showings (which severely lessens boxoffice totals -- there is a reason Summer movies as well as ones released around XMas, when school is out, do the biggest boxoffice). History is not on your side here. The number of movies in the past decade to have an August release and make the crucial $200 mill boxoffice level is one -- The Bourne Ultimatum. It was released on August 3rd. In fact, all the August releases in history to have mode more than $150 mil were released in the first 10 days of August. There no precedent -- NONE -- for a film to be released in the final 2 weeks of August and make even $150 million.

    And this movie faces a major uphill climb in terms of public awareness and buzz. It is not one of the hottest teen/young adult properties out there. The Mortal Instruments book series has sold around 5 million copies total... all the books in the series combined. City of Bones peaked at #8 on the NYTimes list of Bestselling Young Adult books. Hey, that is wonderful and I am sure there are tons of authors who only dream of a success like that, but we are not talking about a series with a huge built-in audience. This is no Hunger Games (40+ million copies sold) or Twilight (45 million copies sold) and certainly no Harry Potter (400 million copies... I am serious). Heck, this series isn't even I Am Number Four (7 weeks at #1 on the NYTimes list), Cirque du Freak:The Vampire's Assistant (15 million copies sold, though there are like a dozen books), or Eragon (30+ million copies sold of the Inheritance Series).

    I don't think you need me to point out that I Am Number Four ($55 mil boxoffice), The Vampire's Assistant ($13 mil), and Eragon ($75 mil) all came up well short of expectations as movies.

    Look, we need to know a lot, lot more about this movie -- get a sense of the scale of the marketing for it and hear a bit of the buzz from Hollywood about its quality -- before we pass any final judgements on it. But history tells me it is highly unlikely that this is going to be even a contender for the Top 5 of summer. Iron Man 3, Star Trek: Into Darkness, Hangover III, After Earth, Man of Steel (new Superman film), Monster's University, World War Z, Despicable Me 2, Lone Ranger, Pacific Rim, and The Wolverine all seem to be much more likely Top 5 of summer picks than this film. Heck, I doubt it would have made my list of contenders had you not brought it up.

    -Jason "the trailer does look fairly good -- it seems to have some of the elements that usually attract the young adult audience" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  18. #78
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    Feb 2008
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    Breaking Dawn: Part 2 took in a staggering $141.3 million for its debut, the eighth biggest opening weekend of all time.
    wow.
    http://movies.msn.com/movies/article...3&affid=100055
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  19. #79
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    Apr 2008
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    Fayetteville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    You can count my wife, son, her girlfriend, and her daughter as part of that total. The wife said she thought it dragged at the start, but she enjoyed the battle at the end. She also said that the crowd was laughing when it turned out it was only a look into what could be.

    I've watched the first three movies and they were ok, nothing I would have paid to see. She did say we would be going to see, "The Hobbit", obviously the coming attractions caught her eye. I wasn't going to tell her it was a done deal anyway, I'll let her think it was her idea.

  20. #80
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    Dec 2011
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    Albemarle, North Carolina
    So what are the early numbers sating for the top 5? I know like I said "early" but I was just curious.

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