Twilight: BD II
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Rise of the Guardians
The Hobbit: Pt 1
This is 40
Zero Dark Thirty
Other (post your pick)
-Jason "I shoulda gone with another kid flick-- Guardians-- or maybe Django" Evans
So, next weekend it goes up against Twilight 4, which will similarly dominate all the movie headlines. But, I doubt there are many (perhaps not any) people who want to see Twilight who would also want to see Lincoln. How many 12-17 year old female history buffs do you know?
-Jason "Skyfall, which skews quite a bit older and more intellectual than Twilight, is the kind of film that would really hurt Lincoln's boxoffice, though I suspect Lincoln is a long-term boxoffice play, not a movie that ever scores a big opening weekend" Evans
So, the above mention of rottentomatoes.com made me go there, and there I saw the poster for the Twilight movie. The three leads are in the most halfhearted "running towards the camera" pose I've ever seen, in a truly bland, generic poster. I have to think that the poster-makers in the studio marketing division had a bet along the lines of, "how lame can we make this poster and see if the studio heads will even notice?" We all know, as does the studio, that the Twilight audience is locked in and the poster will not translate to one dime more or less in box office, no matter how bad it is. I guarantee someone's got a case-of-beer bet on that poster being so lame and the studio heads not caring at all.
Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."
I'd be relieved that Twilight ends -- it's okay, I guess, though I see them on DVD/cable and am always one film behind -- but Stephenie Meyer says she hasn't necessarily closed the door on the saga. I imagine she'll write one more, and the studio stretches it out into 3 movies. Peter Jackson directs.
Skyfall did $87+ mil its opening weekend. It got an "A" Cinemascore and word of mouth is very strong (the Saturday and Sunday numbers were bumped up by Sony due to strong word of mouth). It will make over $200 mil. It is a mortal lock for our top 5.
Wreck-it-Ralph had a nice hold in its second week, only dropping 32% from the opening weekend. It made $33 mil this weekend and sits just under $100 mil after 2 weekends. It certainly seems likely to make it to the coveted $150 mil mark, which should put it in the top 5. But, we need to see a could more weeks to know for sure. Unlike a summer animated film, it does not get big mid-week business as kids are in school, not on break.
Flight also held up well, dropping a little less than 40% for a weekend number of about $15 million. But, with a total gross of less than $50 mil through 2 weekends, it is probably going to end up making less than $100 million total at the boxoffice. It won't make our top 5.
One final word -- the film I loved but poo-pooed in terms of its chances to do huge boxoffice, Lincoln, opened to a massive $900,000 figure in the 11 theaters that were showing it. It basically sold out virtually every showing at those theaters. There seems to be a ton of buzz about this flick and the reviews are going to be excellent. I may have written it off too soon. We'll see next week when it expands into about 1500 more theaters. The Oscar buzz for this film is very strong too, so it should have long legs.
-Jason "all of ya'll jealous of the fact that I get to see movies early... think of me on Wednesday when I am forced to sit through Twilight 4... blech!" Evans
Okay, just saw a trailer for the Hobbit movie and I'm confused. I didn't see any reference to a dragon. Saw 12 dwarfs, one wizard, and one reluctant hobbit; trolls; riddle contest with Gollum; but no dragon.
Did they change to plot, or did I miss something?
(I will be very, very disappointed of they changed the story and there is no dragon, Dale, etc.)
I know we're still slugging it out to deterime what the top 5 movies of the winter are, but I'm going on record now that the top movie of the summer will be, "The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones." Looks like a cross between Constantine, Underworld, and Twilight. Good looking cast of young people so that demographic will flock to see it.
It comes out on August 23rd. That is not a good release date. It is after many school and college-aged kids will have gone back to classes, making it difficult for them to attend mid-week showings (which severely lessens boxoffice totals -- there is a reason Summer movies as well as ones released around XMas, when school is out, do the biggest boxoffice). History is not on your side here. The number of movies in the past decade to have an August release and make the crucial $200 mill boxoffice level is one -- The Bourne Ultimatum. It was released on August 3rd. In fact, all the August releases in history to have mode more than $150 mil were released in the first 10 days of August. There no precedent -- NONE -- for a film to be released in the final 2 weeks of August and make even $150 million.
And this movie faces a major uphill climb in terms of public awareness and buzz. It is not one of the hottest teen/young adult properties out there. The Mortal Instruments book series has sold around 5 million copies total... all the books in the series combined. City of Bones peaked at #8 on the NYTimes list of Bestselling Young Adult books. Hey, that is wonderful and I am sure there are tons of authors who only dream of a success like that, but we are not talking about a series with a huge built-in audience. This is no Hunger Games (40+ million copies sold) or Twilight (45 million copies sold) and certainly no Harry Potter (400 million copies... I am serious). Heck, this series isn't even I Am Number Four (7 weeks at #1 on the NYTimes list), Cirque du Freak:The Vampire's Assistant (15 million copies sold, though there are like a dozen books), or Eragon (30+ million copies sold of the Inheritance Series).
I don't think you need me to point out that I Am Number Four ($55 mil boxoffice), The Vampire's Assistant ($13 mil), and Eragon ($75 mil) all came up well short of expectations as movies.
Look, we need to know a lot, lot more about this movie -- get a sense of the scale of the marketing for it and hear a bit of the buzz from Hollywood about its quality -- before we pass any final judgements on it. But history tells me it is highly unlikely that this is going to be even a contender for the Top 5 of summer. Iron Man 3, Star Trek: Into Darkness, Hangover III, After Earth, Man of Steel (new Superman film), Monster's University, World War Z, Despicable Me 2, Lone Ranger, Pacific Rim, and The Wolverine all seem to be much more likely Top 5 of summer picks than this film. Heck, I doubt it would have made my list of contenders had you not brought it up.
-Jason "the trailer does look fairly good -- it seems to have some of the elements that usually attract the young adult audience" Evans
wow.Breaking Dawn: Part 2 took in a staggering $141.3 million for its debut, the eighth biggest opening weekend of all time.
I've watched the first three movies and they were ok, nothing I would have paid to see. She did say we would be going to see, "The Hobbit", obviously the coming attractions caught her eye. I wasn't going to tell her it was a done deal anyway, I'll let her think it was her idea.
So what are the early numbers sating for the top 5? I know like I said "early" but I was just curious.