View Poll Results: Which will be the Top 5 movies of the winter!

Voters
40. You may not vote on this poll
  • Flight

    4 10.00%
  • Wreck-it Ralph

    24 60.00%
  • Skyfall

    36 90.00%
  • Lincoln

    9 22.50%
  • Twilight: BD II

    35 87.50%
  • Silver Linings Playbook

    1 2.50%
  • Life of Pi

    4 10.00%
  • Rise of the Guardians

    10 25.00%
  • The Hobbit: Pt 1

    39 97.50%
  • Jack Reacher

    5 12.50%
  • This is 40

    0 0%
  • Zero Dark Thirty

    2 5.00%
  • Django Unchained

    8 20.00%
  • Les Miserables

    9 22.50%
  • Other (post your pick)

    1 2.50%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 41 to 60 of 150
  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Here is my challenge to the folks who voted for Lincoln.

    Can you cite any film that is similar to Lincoln that has made more than $120 million dollars? How about $150 million? It is going to take $150 mil to make the top 5. Explain to me any precedent for a film like Lincoln making that kind of money.

    Amistad, which is probably a pretty fair comparison, made $44 million. Is War Horse a sorta fair comparison? It made just under $80 million (though I think a movie that largely focuses on the action of war is not all that similar to a character study like Lincoln). What about J Edgar? It made $37 million.

    --Jason "now you know why I did not pick it" Evans
    I'll admit I took a flyer with Lincoln, but there are two reasons I think this film might be different than the usual historical epic. The first is the subject matter. I think there's a much higher built-in audience for a film about Lincoln than about most other historical biographies. J Edgar suffered from poor word of mouth, but even had audiences liked it, it's ceiling was much lower than the first feature film about one of our most popular presidents (yes, I'm not counting vampire hunter!). Second, this film feels more like Saving Private Ryan than War Horse - it's a movie about a pivotal moment in US history and it pairs Spielberg with an Oscar winning lead actor. I know that Lincoln has a much lower ceiling than SPR (release date, genre differences) but I hope that strong word of mouth and positive reviews can propel it to #5. Like CBB, I'm not brimming with confidence, but for better or worse, that was my reasoning.

    BTW, JFK made 70 million in 1991. I think Lincoln could do better.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Here is my challenge to the folks who voted for Lincoln.

    Can you cite any film that is similar to Lincoln that has made more than $120 million dollars? How about $150 million? It is going to take $150 mil to make the top 5. Explain to me any precedent for a film like Lincoln making that kind of money.

    Amistad, which is probably a pretty fair comparison, made $44 million. Is War Horse a sorta fair comparison? It made just under $80 million (though I think a movie that largely focuses on the action of war is not all that similar to a character study like Lincoln). What about J Edgar? It made $37 million.

    --Jason "now you know why I did not pick it" Evans
    "The Patriot" made 113 million in 2000. We won't see Lincoln charging into battle, but it does have some gruesome battle scenes and you know they will market those scenes up.
    In 2002, "Gangs of New York" gained 77 million. Not sure what that equates to now, but it might be close to where Lincoln would need to be. Way back in 1992, another Day-Lewis movie, "Last of the Mohicans" pulled in almost 78 million.
    Those are comparisons off the top of my head. Would any make the top 5 now? I don't know. Only Gangs was a winter movie, the other 2 were summer releases. As I said, I'm not thrilled about picking Lincoln, but I won't give up on it either.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  3. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    "The Patriot" made 113 million in 2000. We won't see Lincoln charging into battle, but it does have some gruesome battle scenes and you know they will market those scenes up.
    In 2002, "Gangs of New York" gained 77 million. Not sure what that equates to now, but it might be close to where Lincoln would need to be. Way back in 1992, another Day-Lewis movie, "Last of the Mohicans" pulled in almost 78 million.
    Those are comparisons off the top of my head. Would any make the top 5 now? I don't know. Only Gangs was a winter movie, the other 2 were summer releases. As I said, I'm not thrilled about picking Lincoln, but I won't give up on it either.
    Gangs of New York would inflation adjust to just under $110 mil. That is an at least somewhat decent comparison as it is a historical drama. I can buy that comparison.

    Last of the Mohicans is also a decent comparison. I did not know that it made as much as $78 million. The inflation adjustment from back then would almost double its boxoffice, making it a $150 mil hit. Props for coming up with that one!

    Then again, both of those films were really marketed on the action elements in them and I have not seen Lincoln being marketed the same way. If anything, Lincoln feels a bit more like Amistad because so much of the focus seems to be on the discussion about the evils of slavery.

    We'll see. You know why I am pessimistic.

    --Jason "I would mention that HSX expects Lincoln to only make about $45 mil its first 3 weeks of release, but HSX only expects Life of Pi to make about $68 mil so I ain't trusting that market!" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  4. #44
    "Dances with Wolves" had a November release and made over $184 million domestically. And that was in 1990.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    "Dances with Wolves" had a November release and made over $184 million domestically. And that was in 1990.
    Do you think that movie has any similarity to Lincoln?!?!

    I read Variety's review of Lincoln. It is all about the battle to get Congress to pass the amendment outlawing slavery. It has a couple civil war battle scenes, but not many and none of them involve the main characters in the story. It really feels like a "talkie" to me. That said, Variety praised the acting and said the congressional debates were as exciting as many an action movie.

    But, it ain't a Western with Cowboys and Indians.

    -Jason "maybe if they added a few aliens, Lincoln vs. Alien invaders... then it could be a $200 mil blockbuster!" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    That said, Variety praised the acting and said the congressional debates were as exciting as many an action movie.
    Tongue in cheek, or put down of many an action movie?

    At any rate, I don't see much correlation between Lincoln and some of the actions movies mentioned above that happened to be set in historical periods. Not only do the movies seem fundamentally different, the movie viewing experience has changed considerably. At this point, I won't shell out the big bucks to go see something in the theater (and burn precious baby-sitting hours with the in-laws) unless it is the type of movie that doesn't translate well at home. Lincoln sounds like it will do just fine on the family room TV.

    Also, I have to admit I am not a huge fan of dramatization of historical events like this. I would rather read a good history book, or watch a good documentary. But my preference for history over period dramas has no bearing on the overall box office prospects of a movie like Lincoln.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Do you think that movie has any similarity to Lincoln?!?!

    I read Variety's review of Lincoln. It is all about the battle to get Congress to pass the amendment outlawing slavery. It has a couple civil war battle scenes, but not many and none of them involve the main characters in the story. It really feels like a "talkie" to me. That said, Variety praised the acting and said the congressional debates were as exciting as many an action movie.

    But, it ain't a Western with Cowboys and Indians.

    -Jason "maybe if they added a few aliens, Lincoln vs. Alien invaders... then it could be a $200 mil blockbuster!" Evans
    I'm curious how you think Lincoln compares to JFK. JFK had a December release and made what amounts to ~ $140 million in today's market. If Lincoln gets the same sort of Oscar buzz, could it do a little better?

    On the other hand, if Lincoln + Twilight couldn't make money, plain old Lincoln probably doesn't stand a chance.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by mph View Post
    I'm curious how you think Lincoln compares to JFK. JFK had a December release and made what amounts to ~ $140 million in today's market. If Lincoln gets the same sort of Oscar buzz, could it do a little better?

    On the other hand, if Lincoln + Twilight couldn't make money, plain old Lincoln probably doesn't stand a chance.
    I don't really see them as comparable. Other than being movies with Presidents in the title, they are totally different. One is essentially a conspiracy/crime drama with ties to a historical even that many Americans vividly remember and that still confounds us to this day. It is a mystery story.

    The other is a political discussion story set around an event that no American remembers or can relate to. There is no crime at its center (though there will be some war footage) and we all know how everything in this story ends. Yes, it is about an important moment in American history, but there is little intrigue surrounding it nor are there theories or mysteries crying out to be discovered and discussed.

    As I said, I just don't see it as at all similar to JFK. It is maybe, at this point, worth noting that the Lincoln-based movie that may be the best comparison to JFK is The Conspirator, which was directed by Robert Redford and had some decent stars in it James McAvoy, Robin Wright, Kevin Klein. It made $11 million at the domestic boxoffice. It got decent, but not great reviews.

    Reviews have begun coming in for Lincoln, and they are quite good. But, listen to how they describe the film and then tell me if they are describing something that mainstream America will flock to the theaters to see.

    An absorbing, densely packed, sometimes funny telling of the 16th president's masterful effort in manipulating the passage of the 13th amendment. - Hollywood Reporter
    "Hey honey, lets go see that movie tonight about the passage of the 13th amendment! I hear it is densely packed!!"

    Lincoln looks amazing, sounds amazing, and has enough talent to make it an exhilarating learning experience. - Hollywood.com
    "Hey honey, tonight when we go to the movies, I really want to see something that is an exhilarating learning experience."

    A stirring portrait of Abraham Lincoln but, perhaps more importantly, a quietly compelling look into the nitty-gritty process of democratic government. - Screen International
    "Hey honey, after dinner tonight lets go see something about the nitty-gritty process of democracy!"

    Heavily and delectably dialogue-driven, the film is a behind-the-curtain look at 19th-century politics, which is shown to have been just as filled with cunning and opportunism as it was with goodwill and grand ideas. - Slant Magazine
    "You know what I am in the mood for tonight, honey? Something heavily and delectably dialogue-driven. I really want to avoid action and thrills if we can. If it can be dialogue about the 19th century, well that would really be great!"

    At two hours and 30 minutes, "Lincoln" contains only a single battle scene in its opening seconds. The rest is pure talk, a keen dramatization of Doris Kearns Goodwin's tome "Team of Rivals," that delivers an overview of Lincoln's crowning achievement in chunks of strategy talk. Ostensibly a well-acted history lesson, it captures the turmoil of the period by observing Lincoln at work. - Indiewire
    "Honey, you up for two and a half hours of pure strategy talk? If we are really lucky, we'll get a history lesson too!"

    -Jason "I am largely kidding and picking lines to prove my point... but it was kinda fun. Sue me!" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Do you think that movie has any similarity to Lincoln?!?!
    Haha...not really, other than in a very, very general sense. "Dances" was a historical/period drama that racked up some Oscar nominations, but I think it was a lot closer to "Gangs of New York" or "Last of the Mohicans" (two movies cited as possible comps to "Lincoln") than to "Lincoln" itself. But I don't really think any of those movies seem similar to "Lincoln."

    It looks/feels a lot more like "Amistad" or "J. Edgar" to me. Which is why I didn't pick it.

  10. #50
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    Well, the first two big names in the contest have lifted off, and, for contest purposes, Wreck-it Ralph has taken flight while Flight may already be wrecked.

    (See how I did that? Think I can change careers from doc to movie reporter? No? Darn...)

    Anyway, Flight took in 25 million, which will take extra fuel tanks and some good gliding to reach an altitude high enough to be in the top 5 (sorry, I can't stop).

    Meanwhile, Wreck-it made just shy of $50 million, which means it will have to really crash and burn (still going) to not be in the top 5. With the A Cinemascore it got from audiences, it's a lock to make 150 or more.

    Note: despite my fun with the flight terms, Flight made it's 25 mill at under 1900 screens and earned a A- Cinemascore...so it's not nearly out of contention yet...
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  11. #51
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    Saw a trailer for "Life of Pi" last night. Next time I vote in one of these things I'm gonna go watch the trailers first. I'm thinking Jason is right and it will be in the top 5 now; even if the plot sucks there is so much eye-candy going on. Looks like a classic pop-corn movie. Transformers movies are like that, especially the first one. Stupid story but fun to look at.
    And I'm guessing Pi is a much more interesting movie than Transformers. (RT has a 94% Fresh rating..another good sign for a good story and movie.)
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Other than being movies with Presidents in the title, they are totally different. One is essentially a conspiracy/crime drama with ties to a historical even that many Americans vividly remember and that still confounds us to this day. It is a mystery story.

    The other is a political discussion story set around an event that no American remembers or can relate to. There is no crime at its center (though there will be some war footage) and we all know how everything in this story ends. Yes, it is about an important moment in American history, but there is little intrigue surrounding it nor are there theories or mysteries crying out to be discovered and discussed.
    So we basically agree that they're the same movie.

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post

    Reviews have begun coming in for Lincoln, and they are quite good. But, listen to how they describe the film and then tell me if they are describing something that mainstream America will flock to the theaters to see.

    "Hey honey, lets go see that movie tonight about the passage of the 13th amendment! I hear it is densely packed!!"

    "Hey honey, tonight when we go to the movies, I really want to see something that is an exhilarating learning experience."

    "Hey honey, after dinner tonight lets go see something about the nitty-gritty process of democracy!"

    "You know what I am in the mood for tonight, honey? Something heavily and delectably dialogue-driven. I really want to avoid action and thrills if we can. If it can be dialogue about the 19th century, well that would really be great!"

    "Honey, you up for two and a half hours of pure strategy talk? If we are really lucky, we'll get a history lesson too!"

    -Jason "I am largely kidding and picking lines to prove my point... but it was kinda fun. Sue me!" Evans
    I laughed until I realized that all of those reviews made Lincoln sound more interesting to me and that my wife and I have probably said crazier things than your hypothetical couple. Thanks for forcing me to confront just how big a dork I have become.

  13. #53
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    I lose... sigh.

    At least I am going to lose in a truly beautiful and wondrous way, but I am going to lose.

    -Jason
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I lose... sigh.

    At least I am going to lose in a truly beautiful and wondrous way, but I am going to lose.

    -Jason
    Sorry, why are you losing?
    LET'S GO DUKE!

  15. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjornolf View Post
    Sorry, why are you losing?
    I'm going to assume it has something to do with Life of 3.14159...which looks beautiful and wondrous and unlikely to find a box office bonanza.
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    I'm going to assume it has something to do with Life of 3.14159...which looks beautiful and wondrous and unlikely to find a box office bonanza.
    If that's true I will be happy since I didn't pick it, but also surprised after seeing the trailer and reading the reviews (which I posted about somewhere else in here). Also, if that's true, I bet it's one of those movies that still enjoys a long shelf life once it hits the DVD racks. (But of course then you lose all the cool 3D effects.)
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    I'm going to assume it has something to do with Life of 3.14159...which looks beautiful and wondrous and unlikely to find a box office bonanza.
    Bingo.

    One of the finest crafted movies I have ever seen. The CGI and 3D are easily among the best you will ever see on film. All the animals are CGI, which almost seems impossible to me given how realistic they looked. This is Ang Lee's triumph, a wondrously beautiful movie.

    But, the story is so spiritual and pensive -- not a ton of action -- that I just can't see it being embraced by a large audience. It is slow at times, often at the wrong times. My 13-year old son enjoyed it and liked it, but it was not like he wanted to see it again nor did he plan to go to school and tell all his friends to see it.

    --Jason "I'll have a more complete review later..." Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    It is slow at times, often at the wrong times. My 13-year old son enjoyed it and liked it, but it was not like he wanted to see it again nor did he plan to go to school and tell all his friends to see it.
    Ahh, it's all in the marketing. After I saw the trailer I'm thinking another Avatar extravaganza. This is why Lincoln needs to show only congressional fights and all three minutes of the battle scene in its trailer.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Bingo.

    One of the finest crafted movies I have ever seen. The CGI and 3D are easily among the best you will ever see on film. All the animals are CGI, which almost seems impossible to me given how realistic they looked. This is Ang Lee's triumph, a wondrously beautiful movie.

    But, the story is so spiritual and pensive -- not a ton of action -- that I just can't see it being embraced by a large audience. It is slow at times, often at the wrong times. My 13-year old son enjoyed it and liked it, but it was not like he wanted to see it again nor did he plan to go to school and tell all his friends to see it.

    --Jason "I'll have a more complete review later..." Evans
    When you made that earlier, defeated post, I was wondering if the studio moved the film to next summer or something. But it's still coming out around Thanksgiving. You've got a chance, right? Right? Okay, no.

    I thought Life of Pi was a bold box office pick, and I wanted you to succeed with it, but I couldn't shake the idea that it had a built-in comparison: Hugo.

  20. #60
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    That's the "Featured on RT" list from Rotten Tomatoes. And that's why "Lincoln" is doomed.
    Skyfall is going to obliterate anything else in the box office this weekend. In fact, Lincoln is mentioned only one other time on any of RT's headlines...and it opens this weekend.
    When your one headline is "Seven Facts Worth Knowing About Lincoln ", that's not exactly the thrilling hype you want.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

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