Twilight: BD II
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Rise of the Guardians
The Hobbit: Pt 1
This is 40
Zero Dark Thirty
Other (post your pick)
Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.
You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner
You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke
--Jason "I also think it is possible that typical, geriatric CSI viewers could confuse that 'loud and crazy' Stones music with 'loud and crazy' Who music" Evans
It's The Who. I remember when they played the Super Bowl halftime a few years back that it was a giant blown marketing opportunity for all the versions of CSI.
Note: I don't watch them either, but I know it's The Who's music as their theme songs.
I got to see a screening of Wreck-it Ralph over the weekend. In the interest of fairness, I wanted to tell all of you what I thought.
It is a decent movie -- really clever set up for the first third of the film that has tons of gags on 80s and 90s arcade classics. I was howling with laughter at times. It then settles into the main story that exists in only one of the machines and is kinda dull. The middle third was a snooze-fest for the most part. The ending really surprised me at times. It wasn't brilliant or great, but had just enough twists that I did not see coming to make it interesting. I'd give the first third an 8, the middle third a 3, and the ending third a 6. I will say that the 11 year old boy I saw it with really liked it, even though a lot of the classic arcade jokes were totally lost on him.
For the most part, my viewing of the movie did nothing to change my views on how it will do at the boxoffice. It almost exactly lived up (or down, I ain't revealing how I feel about it) to my expectations based on my viewing of the trailer.
-Jason "this movie is a contender, perhaps a strong one, for our Top 5" Evans
Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."
I went with Wreck It Ralph, Skyfall, Lincoln, Twilight, and The Hobbit.
I feel pretty confident about every pick except Lincoln which I agree may be too highbrow to crack the top 5.
I thought WIR was a fairly easy choice. I started with the assumption that an animated movie will make the top 5. I went with WIR over Rise of the Guardians because it's first to market and it seems to have a clever hook that will appeal to parents who grew up in the 80s.
I also worried about picking 4 movies so close to each other in release date. Had I not gone with Lincoln, I would have had a tough time deciding between Django and Les Mis.
Skyfall is a "duh!" entry on all our ballots, but just in case anyone was feeling a twinge of doubt....
Everyone outside of America spent all their money on it last weekend.
I am sorta unsure if I should do this... if I should tell you all how I voted seeing as I am certain I am going to be the winner
Well, I'll do it anyway.
First of all, there are 3 mortal locks. We all know them -- Twilight, Bond/Skyfall, and Hobbit. Each of these movies could suck (Twilight does suck) and they would still make well over the $150 mil needed to be in the Top 5 of Winter running. The built-in audience for each of them is just too huge. They are locks and if you did not pick them, you lose. Period, end of story.
The next 2 picks are really hard. I tried process of elimination to help me out.
First, the ones that I felt pretty sure would not make it.
- Historical biographies typically do not fare well, even if they are Oscar caliber. So, Lincoln is out.
- A sorta romantic drama about mental illness is not likely to find really wide acceptance and boxoffice. Silver Linings Playbook is out.
- Quentin Tarantino is fabulous, but plenty of mainstream folks just don't like his violent style. Inglorious Basterd, which was about the more appealing topic of Nazi/WWII drama as opposed to a film about slavery, only made $120 million. Hard to see Django Unchained doing that much better than the Basterds.
- Musicals translated to the screen have a very spotty boxoffice history. The only ones to exceed $150 mil were Grease and Chicago. I think Les Mis will be good, but it simply won't appeal to enough folks to make big boxoffice.
So, that left me with the following, listed in reverse order of how I think they will do at the boxoffice--
- Jack Reacher has underwhelmed me with the trailers so far and I don't sense a lot of excitement or pent-up demand for the film. Aside from success in his Mission Impossible franchise (which was boosted by an amazing director in Brad Bird), Tom Cruise has been boxoffice poison in recent years. Jack Reacher doesn't have the built in audience of MI4.
- Flight looks like a quality film, but is coming out in just a few days and I just don't sense a lot of excitement about it. Heck, Denzel's last out-of-control-motorized-vehicle flick, Unstoppable, was a pretty good movie (86% on Rotten Tom) but it only made $88 mil. So, I didn't pick Flight.
- Zero Dark Thirty is really tempting. I could see the nation really getting excited about watching the drama behind the hunt for Osama, especially with Kathryn Bigelow delivering in the director's chair. I won't be totally shocked if this is a runaway hit, but I just could not pull the trigger on it.
- This is 40 could be really good, but raunchy comedies that are gold in the summer don't typically do all that well in winter. Aside from the Fockers franchise, winter time is generally not an adult-comedy showcase. I worry that there are not many comedies coming out this winter and there could be some pent-up demand. Again, I would not be shocked if this ended up one of the Top 5.
- Rise of the Guardians just seems cheesy to me. I don't like the look of the animation in the trailers and I think cobbling together a bunch of supposed "fantasy heroes" feels forced. I think it will do well, there is not much kids fare out there this season and Thanksgiving is a great time to launch a kids movie, but I think it comes up short of the Top 5.
And that leaves me with my last two picks. The first of them is a film a lot of you have selected, Wreck-It-Ralph. Kids movies do well during the holidays and the video game hook will help this film to bring in adults too. I think the marketing campaign has been strong and there seems to be good buzz. I expect it to have a nice, long, successful run.
My other film may surprise a lot of you. Life of Pi is not an obvious choice here. Heck, the folks at Hollywood Stock Exchange expect it to only make about $60 million its first 3 weeks in theaters, which would make it a very poor choice for Top 5 of the season. But, for months I have been hearing that this film features the finest 3D and CGI ever seen on film. I am telling you, everyone says this thing supposedly makes Avatar look like one of those red-green glasses 3D films. I know the story from the book and it is a tremendously uplifting and compelling one. I think the reviews will be off the charts and there will be a lot of Oscar talk for the film and especially for director Ang Lee. I am expecting Life of Pi to be one of those movies that people see and then tell everyone they know to go see. Plus, 7 million copies of the book have been sold, which is a nice starting base for a successful movie (though it did not help Dragon Tattoo to make much more than $100 million).
There you have it... the correct list... I hope
--Jason "Pi is the biggest longshot I have ever picked in these contests... but I have a feeling" Evans
Good luck pi boy. I think it's going to come down to the 5th movie for a few of us. Unless WIR either tanks or one of the others just surprises for that 4th spot, the contest is going to come down to what movie comes in that last spot...and it might not even be the last spot it's filling.
I feel a lot like JE did.....Hobbit, Skyfall and Twilight Finally Over are locks. Period.
I was torn on the last two as well. I think Lincoln looks great. So does Les Mis. But ultimately, I just couldn't pick them because I think they will be too heavy for the masses to go to. Could certainly be wrong.
So, you have to have a kids flick. One of them is always in the Top 5. I went with Wreck it Ralph as well. It comes out first. It's in 3D. My kids want to go see it done.
So the last. Life of Pi is a gutsy pick for sure....I thought about it (though I think I would put Les Mis above it). I also think "This is 40," and "Jack Reacher" could do great....but they all come out at the same time, and get massive competition with Les Mis, Django Unchained, and Promised Land, which will hurt their takes, I think.
So for me, the last choice was The Guardians. It's another kid flick. It comes out right before Thanksgiving (and 2 1/2 weeks after Wreck it Ralph), and then has no other true kid competition at all (because I'm not counting Monsters Inc getting re-released). There are many, many periods when two kid movies steal spots in the Top 5. That's what drove me for this pick. I'll probably be wrong....but if so it will likely be because something else knocks out Skyfall.
--Jason "Hollywood Stock Exchange expects it to make $180 million in its first 3 weeks of release. That would make it easily a $200+ mil movie" Evans
I believe you about Skyfall.....but if that's true, then there are 3 absolute locks for the top, because Hobbitt is going to be gigantic, and Twilight will be....well, Twilight.
So that leaves just 2 spots. One will definitely be a kids movie, so either Wreck it or Guardians....That leaves one more. LOTS of us are going to get 4 right.....
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0443272/ However, it's a historical drama based around a story that isn't the most cheerful of subjects. Plus an early scanning of the web is revealing mixed reviews, which doesn't help. For a film like this to make the top 5, the critics reception will have to make it appear to the masses to be a must see film.
-Jason "I am actually seeing Rise of the Guardians tonight. Will let you all know how it was" Evans
Really though, why have a great cast just to cover them with zombie make-up?
My point is that Lincoln Vampire Killer might have left a bad taste in the mouths of movie goers - even if just subliminal suggestion.
Here is my challenge to the folks who voted for Lincoln.
Can you cite any film that is similar to Lincoln that has made more than $120 million dollars? How about $150 million? It is going to take $150 mil to make the top 5. Explain to me any precedent for a film like Lincoln making that kind of money.
Amistad, which is probably a pretty fair comparison, made $44 million. Is War Horse a sorta fair comparison? It made just under $80 million (though I think a movie that largely focuses on the action of war is not all that similar to a character study like Lincoln). What about J Edgar? It made $37 million.
--Jason "now you know why I did not pick it" Evans