Quote Originally Posted by JNort View Post
So what are the early numbers sating for the top 5? I know like I said "early" but I was just curious.
Skyfall and Twilight are locks, but we already knew that. They would be locks if they were summer movies as they each seem poised to make well over $200 million, probably more like $240-$280 mil each. Skyfall is at $161 mil and held up well in its 2nd weekend, which means word of mouth is strong and it should have good legs. Twilight made $141 mil its opening weekend. It could drop off a cliff and it would still be a $200 mil movie. Done.

Wreck-it-Ralph is showing very nice legs too, only dropping 44% in its third weekend to make $18.3 million. It stands at $121.4 million but is about to get some serious Thanksgiving competition from Rise of the Guardians as well as Life of Pi. Still, it looks like WIR is going to get to something north of $150 million and seems to have a strong shot at the Top 5, though it is going to be #4 or #5 if it makes it.

Flight has been eliminated from our competition. $61 mil through 3 weekends... no chance.

The other film from our contest that has already opened is Lincoln. It is so hard to tell what to make of this film's long-term boxoffice prospects. I have been telling everyone to go see it. Wonderful film. It opened to $21 million, a great number for a film that was only in 1500 theaters (Twilight was in 4000+). Still, Lincoln is going to have to have really, really, really long legs to get to $150 million if it starts at $21 million. It did get an "A" Cinemascore, so that means folks are likely telling their friends to go see it, but $150 million is a big number for a movie that is squarely aimed at the over-40 crowd. We'll see, but I am skeptical. I imagine everyone associated with this flick, including the studio, would be delighted if it made it to $100 million (it had a budget of $65 mil).

We will thin the herd a lot this week with the openings of Red Dawn (not gonna be a contender), Life of Pi (amazing, beautiful, wondrous film that is too spiritual and slow to get a huge mainstream audience), and Silver Linings Playbook (quirky adult drama with a crowd-pleasing ending but not a topic designed to make mega-bucks). Rise of the Guardians also opens and it could be a serious contender as a family film. I liked it and my kids did too. Dragged a bit but was a fresh take on some famous mythical characters.

-Jason "still wasaay too early to know how these Xmas movies are going to fare -- heck, even I haven't seen them yet" Evans