View Poll Results: Which will be the Top 5 movies of the winter!

Voters
40. You may not vote on this poll
  • Flight

    4 10.00%
  • Wreck-it Ralph

    24 60.00%
  • Skyfall

    36 90.00%
  • Lincoln

    9 22.50%
  • Twilight: BD II

    35 87.50%
  • Silver Linings Playbook

    1 2.50%
  • Life of Pi

    4 10.00%
  • Rise of the Guardians

    10 25.00%
  • The Hobbit: Pt 1

    39 97.50%
  • Jack Reacher

    5 12.50%
  • This is 40

    0 0%
  • Zero Dark Thirty

    2 5.00%
  • Django Unchained

    8 20.00%
  • Les Miserables

    9 22.50%
  • Other (post your pick)

    1 2.50%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1
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    Top 5 Movies of Winter

    Time for our semi-annual "what will be the biggest boxoffice hits of summer/winter" contest. As always, you are not picking critical faves, this is judged on boxoffice receipts and nothing else. A film could stink, but make big money, and still be a winner in this contest.

    All you must do is vote in the above poll. We are looking for your picks for the 5 top boxoffice success stories of the season (more on that later). MAKE SURE YOU PICK FIVE MOVIES BEFORE YOU SUBMIT YOUR POLL RESULTS!!! Every year we have folks who only pick 2 or 3 or 4 movies. You will not win unless you pick all 5. Your goal is to go 5-for-5, which has never been done before in the summer but was done last winter, I think.

    Anyway, we will start with movies released the first weekend of November and our contest will end the weekend of Feb 1-3. That should be more than enough time to tell which the top 5 movies of the season will be.

    Here are your nominees, in order by release date.

    Flight
    Wreck-it Ralph
    Skyfall
    Lincoln
    Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt II
    Silver Linings Playbook
    Life of Pi
    Rise of the Guardians
    The Hobbit
    Jack Reacher
    This is 40
    Zero Dark Thirty
    Django Unchained
    Les Mis

    If you want to write in a candidate, go for it and just list in your post what your write-in vote is for. Among the strong write-in possibilities are: Red Dawn, Killing Them Softly, The Guilt Trip, Parental Guidance, Anna Karenina, Hitchcock, On The Road, The Gangster Squad, and The Last Stand.

    So, vote soon because I will close the poll on Nov 1!

    -Jason "please post comments about your predictions... and feel free to criticize other people's picks too " Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  2. #2
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    I've added release dates.

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Here are your nominees, in order by release date.

    Flight (11/2)
    Wreck-it Ralph (11/2)
    Skyfall (11/9)
    Lincoln (11/9)
    Twilight: Breaking Dawn Pt II (11/16)
    Silver Linings Playbook (11/21*)
    Life of Pi (11/21*)
    Rise of the Guardians (11/21*)
    The Hobbit (12/14)
    Jack Reacher (12/21)
    This is 40 (12/21)
    Zero Dark Thirty (12/21)
    Django Unchained (12/25*)
    Les Mis (12/25*)
    *11/21 is Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. 12/25 is a Tuesday.

    I see 3 obvious choices and a bunch of longshots. But this is more fun than summer, where you pretty much have to pick 5 sequels/spinoffs. Here you can go out on a limb, and it might pay off.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I've added release dates.



    *11/21 is Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. 12/25 is a Tuesday.

    I see 3 obvious choices and a bunch of longshots. But this is more fun than summer, where you pretty much have to pick 5 sequels/spinoffs. Here you can go out on a limb, and it might pay off.
    I assume your obvious picks are Skyfall, Twilight, and Hobbit?
    LET'S GO DUKE!

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by bjornolf View Post
    I assume your obvious picks are Skyfall, Twilight, and Hobbit?
    Shhhhh.... don't tell anyone

    Heck, to be more fun, we should simply ask if the opening weekend of Twilight will be among the top 5 movies of the winter.

    --Jason "worth noting, there have only been 3 Bond films to make more than $130 million at the boxoffice... and Peter Jackson has been boxoffice poison since LOTR ended" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  5. #5
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    I've heard almost nothing about "Cloud Atlas", which is opening Friday, October 26th. I assume that's a bit too early to make this poll. Tom Hanks, Halle Barry, Jim Broadbent, Hugo Weaving, Hugh Grant, and Susan Sarandon in the cast. A Wachowski brother among the directors. (I'm generally not a big fan of movies by directing teams, but this is a set of stories across time, so it might work.)

    Has anybody heard anything about this film? Does the lack of pre-release publicity indicate a lack of studio faith in the project?
    JBDuke

    Andre Dawkins: “People ask me if I can still shoot, and I ask them if they can still breathe. That’s kind of the same thing.”

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBDuke View Post
    I've heard almost nothing about "Cloud Atlas", which is opening Friday, October 26th. I assume that's a bit too early to make this poll. Tom Hanks, Halle Barry, Jim Broadbent, Hugo Weaving, Hugh Grant, and Susan Sarandon in the cast. A Wachowski brother among the directors. (I'm generally not a big fan of movies by directing teams, but this is a set of stories across time, so it might work.)

    Has anybody heard anything about this film? Does the lack of pre-release publicity indicate a lack of studio faith in the project?
    I haven't heard much other than seeing the extended 6-minute preview, but I adore the book and am super excited to see the movie. I'm not totally sure it's going to work, but I'll be there anyway.

    Also, I've seen (well, fast-forwarded through) a lot of regular previews for the movie on prime-time TV, so they're giving it a healthy marketing campaign.
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  7. #7
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    OK, since no one else has thrown out their 5 picks, I'll put myself up as a pinata...feel free to whack away!

    I went first with the Twilight, in my reliance that people will continue to turn out in droves to see this mediocre derivative melodrama. My 9 dollars, of course, will not go to support this pick!

    Hobbit part 1 was my next choice. Jackson's never done much financially successful except Tolkein. So, yep, this should be a monster.

    Skyfall looks sensational in trailers. Bond may not historically make huge box office $$$, but Craig is popular in the role, and I'm relying on Mendes to make a Bond film that's critically well reviewed and receives good word-of-mouth from those having seen it.

    Wreck-it-Ralph was my next choice. I'm an animation fan and yet was uninspired by this movie's trailer. That being said, it looks like it hits all the right notes for box office success. It's got the fun, the bouncy music, the cute girl to draw the girls, the video game motif to draw the boys, the 80s references to get the parents in, etc. Paint-by-numbers studio animation it is, but that's all the more reason to vote for it in this poll.

    Last I went with Django. This is a tough fifth choice for me, with some other options being Flight (Denzel isn't sure-fire box office success, but he generally does well, and the movie trailers look very good); Jack Reacher (Tom Cruise securely in his wheelhouse); Rise of the Guardians (as an alternative kids movie). I think Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Les Mis could all make some noise, but all three are a little higher-brow fare that may require a big awards haul to get the kind of box office to compete in this poll. With Django, Tarantino has got an entertaining looking revenge movie with some popular actors (Foxx, DiCaprio, and Waltz all front and center in the trailers) that should appeal strongly to his fan base and may be able to reach outside enough to put the movie into the top 5.
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  8. #8
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    SKyfall, Twilight, Hobbit, Red Dawn.... I will wait to choose my 5th for now

  9. #9

    Mine. I'm ready to be mocked

    Twilight, Skyfall and the Hobbit.

    No need to comment on Twilight.

    I know that Bond has been a huge draw, but Skyfall's getting better pre-release buzz than the others, it seems to me.

    The Hobbit seems safe riding the admittedly dated coat tails of the Lord of the Rings.

    Those were the easy ones, I think.

    I went with Jack Reacher. I don't know what kind of a draw Cruise is anymore, but I think there's a strong audience for those books and enough of an audience for Tom that it's a good bet.

    Last one I went with Les Miserables. That might be wishful hope from a big fan as much as it is anything, but I do think the buzz is going to build well for it. After we saw Argo Friday night, a lot of people in the lobby were talking about it and the preview we saw for it prior to Argo. It's got a huge built in audience too. Seemed like as good a bet as any.

    Wreck-It-Ralph wouldn't surprise me if it sneaks in here. Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty both have the potential to be excellent movies, but I think they'll be smaller draws, comparatively.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chicago 1995 View Post
    Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty both have the potential to be excellent movies, but I think they'll be smaller draws, comparatively.
    Didn't mean to ignore Zero Dark Thirty. I agree with what Chicago wrote, and classify that movie along with Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Les Mis as potentially big movies, but movies that likely need good awards success to compete for top 5.
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  11. #11
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    Twilight (so happy this is the end), WIR (kids and holidays, shouldn't miss), Skyfall, Hobbit, Lincoln.
    After Twilight and the Hobbit I don't see any sure fire bets, but I also don't see James Bond missing out, especially with Craig back in action.
    Lincoln is my stab in the dark. I'm guessing it will have Oscar written all over it, but that doesn't always equate to box office success.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    ... I went first with the Twilight, in my reliance that people will continue to turn out in droves to see this mediocre derivative melodrama. My 9 dollars, of course, will not go to support this pick!

    Hobbit part 1 was my next choice. Jackson's never done much financially successful except Tolkein. So, yep, this should be a monster.

    Skyfall looks sensational in trailers. Bond may not historically make huge box office $$$, but Craig is popular in the role, and I'm relying on Mendes to make a Bond film that's critically well reviewed and receives good word-of-mouth from those having seen it.

    Wreck-it-Ralph was my next choice. I'm an animation fan and yet was uninspired by this movie's trailer. That being said, it looks like it hits all the right notes for box office success. It's got the fun, the bouncy music, the cute girl to draw the girls, the video game motif to draw the boys, the 80s references to get the parents in, etc. Paint-by-numbers studio animation it is, but that's all the more reason to vote for it in this poll.

    Last I went with Django. This is a tough fifth choice for me, with some other options being Flight (Denzel isn't sure-fire box office success, but he generally does well, and the movie trailers look very good); Jack Reacher (Tom Cruise securely in his wheelhouse); Rise of the Guardians (as an alternative kids movie). I think Lincoln, Life of Pi, and Les Mis could all make some noise, but all three are a little higher-brow fare that may require a big awards haul to get the kind of box office to compete in this poll. With Django, Tarantino has got an entertaining looking revenge movie with some popular actors (Foxx, DiCaprio, and Waltz all front and center in the trailers) that should appeal strongly to his fan base and may be able to reach outside enough to put the movie into the top 5.
    Completely concur with the analysis. I had the same first 4, but went with Rise of the Guardians as #5. It opens three weeks after WIR - so it will be the fresh kids flick at Thanksgiving and there isn't much new for the next three weeks. It will get kids for the entire holiday break. Maybe cheaper tickets, but the theaters will be busy all day long.

    Django is my #6, but I couldn't choose Tarantino violence opening on Christmas. It will probably last well into the new year - so the contest may not be decided for a long while.

    I don't think Reacher will equal Mission Impossible numbers, so top five would be a stretch. I can't see Reacher being as action-packed as the MI flicks, and Cruise's drawing power is not growing.

    I see Les Mis making the top five, and I know its only in my mind.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBDuke View Post
    I've heard almost nothing about "Cloud Atlas", which is opening Friday, October 26th. I assume that's a bit too early to make this poll. Tom Hanks, Halle Barry, Jim Broadbent, Hugo Weaving, Hugh Grant, and Susan Sarandon in the cast. A Wachowski brother among the directors. (I'm generally not a big fan of movies by directing teams, but this is a set of stories across time, so it might work.)

    Has anybody heard anything about this film? Does the lack of pre-release publicity indicate a lack of studio faith in the project?
    Cloud Atlas opens a week too soon to be included in this contest.

    A couple notes on it. First of all, one of the "Wachowski brothers" is among the directors but so is the other brother. The only thing is, the other brother (Larry) had a sex change operation a year or so ago and is now named Lana. So, these are the same directors who brought us the Matrix films. The third director on the project is Tom Tykwer, who has done some interesting but not huge boxoffice films. He is best known for the wonderful Run Lola Run.

    There is a lot of excitement about this film though not from the standpoint of it being a big boxoffice success. Most folks interested in it want to see how some of the storytelling techniques work. They are telling 5 or 6 different stories, each set in a different time period of history. The same actors will appears across multiple stories, though they will be playing different characters -- I think the characters who have the same "soul" or something like that. I am not completely clear on it, but it is supposed to ooze EPIC!

    The film is more than 2 and a half hours long, which makes its boxoffice prospects quite uncertain. Personally, I hope it is a big success as it is the most ambitious independently financed film of all time. Warner Bros. put some money into the project, but the vast majority of its $100 mill budget comes from non-studio financing. It is generally hard to get more than maybe $5 mil for an independent film so this one is truly an industry outlier.

    I have not seen it yet, but will let folks know when I do. Some critics I know have seen it at film festivals and they all say some of the stories work great and some feel over-wrought and, on a whole, it is a work of art but not necessarily great entertainment.

    Anyway, for folks who follow the film industry, Cloud Atlas is almost certainly the most compelling movie story of the year -- 3 directors, independent financing, huge scope, shooting multiple stories at the same time with the same actors -- though I sorta doubt that translates into mega-boxoffice.

    -Jason "I really hope it makes back its budget as I want independent films with ambition and scope to succeed!" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  14. #14
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    11 voters so far and the trio that we all know will make it are each at 100%.

    By the way, my little note about only 3 Bond films making over $130 mil is tricky. That is because we are not adjusting for inflation. The three that made more than $130 are the three most recent Bond films and they each made over $160 mil.

    The threshold to be in the Top 5 in the Winter movie contest is generally around $145 - $150 million. In summer, the threshold is around $200 mil. So, if it is $150 this winter and the most recent Bond movies all made over $160 and we add in a bit of ticket inflation since the last Bond movie was made 4 years ago, the odds seem excellent that Skyfall will surpass that $150 mil mark... probably quite comfortably.

    --Jason "with the strong, strong buzz it is getting, I won't be shocked if Skyfall passes $200 mil" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by JNort
    SKyfall, Twilight, Hobbit, Red Dawn.... I will wait to choose my 5th for now
    Unfortunately since you only chose 3, I don't think you can edit it - maybe a moderator can change once you decide?

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by snowdenscold View Post
    Unfortunately since you only chose 3, I don't think you can edit it - maybe a moderator can change once you decide?
    If he posts in this thread with his 5 choices prior to the poll closing, we can accept that a legal "vote."

    -JE
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  17. #17
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    When in doubt, I usually go with an animated film, but I see Wreck-It Ralph (Disney) and Rise of the Guardians (DreamWorks) as second-tier studio efforts. The animated film that may end up doing the best is the 3D re-release of Monsters, Inc. (December 19).

    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    Last I went with Django. This is a tough fifth choice for me, with some other options being Flight (Denzel isn't sure-fire box office success, but he generally does well, and the movie trailers look very good)
    I see Django Unchained as a solid 4th place finisher. I think this film is an easier sell than Inglourious Basterds -- more stars, not based in Europe, multiracial appeal -- and that film opened at $38 million and made $120 million. I think you may see a bunch of films clustered in the $75-100 million range this season. This one could stand out. I think Les Miserables is a better fit for a Christmas release, but I don't see it having legs.

    To 5th place I went with Flight. The trailer announces the film as a major Hollywood product, and I think it will be received that way. It has the heroism angle, the fine drama angle, and maybe a conspiracy or two thrown in. And again, multiracial appeal. If it even made half as much as Cast Away, that would put it around $115 million. My only reservation is that Skyfall opens the very next week to suck up the adult audience, and Twilight the following week to suck up all the movie screens.

    So, in the words of Wesley Snipes in Passenger 57, "Always bet on black." And we all know how well things turned out for him.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by JNort View Post
    SKyfall, Twilight, Hobbit, Red Dawn.... I will wait to choose my 5th for now
    Ok my fifth is going to be... Rise of The Guardians.

    Not really sold on it but I just don't see a solid 4th or 5th choice.

    So I got Twilight, Hobbit, Skyfall, Red Dawn, ROTG

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    To 5th place I went with Flight. The trailer announces the film as a major Hollywood product, and I think it will be received that way. It has the heroism angle, the fine drama angle, and maybe a conspiracy or two thrown in. And again, multiracial appeal. If it even made half as much as Cast Away, that would put it around $115 million.
    I saw a new trailer for Flight at the movie theater, and for some reason it used "Gimme Shelter" for its tension-building music. So I'm going to add another $5 million to my estimate to account for the people that go see it because they watched this trailer and assumed that it's a Martin Scorsese film.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I saw a new trailer for Flight at the movie theater, and for some reason it used "Gimme Shelter" for its tension-building music. So I'm going to add another $5 million to my estimate to account for the people that go see it because they watched this trailer and assumed that it's a Martin Scorsese film.
    I thought the use of a Rolling Stones song indicates one of the 17 editions of CSI. If so, I think you should add $15 mil to your estimate for all the really old people who will show up expecting to see a crime solved using those amazing new scientific techniques, like fingerprinting.

    -Jason
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

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