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  1. #1

    Luke Winn's SI Preseason Rankings - Duke #8, State #3 (REALLY??), UNC #12


  2. #2
    I don't see it. Last year's team was worried about making the field; does the addition of a talented class of freshmen, not on the impact-making level of UK, make the Wolfpack that much of a title contender?

    I like the model created by Dave Glenn's site. Duke is the preseason favorite to win the league. State will be battling UNC for second. Not that Duke is going to be a world beater.

  3. #3
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    Those are not pre-season ranking from CNNSI. Those are Luke Winn's power rankings. His own opinion.

    My biggest issue with the rankings is the lack of actual basketball analysis and being more of a fluff piece. (Such as UNC's floor pattern and Duke's Army boots)

  4. #4
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    No one does college basketball analysis better than Winn, IMO. This particular post is obviously not indicative of that.

    I suspect the fluff is just for fun until the season starts, because he knows full well what guesswork college basketball preseason rankings are anyway.

  5. #5
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    This adds to the weight on those young players' shoulders, and adds to the expectations of State fans. Winn did them no favors.
    Man, if your Mom made you wear that color when you were a baby, and you're still wearing it, it's time to grow up!

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    I suspect the fluff is just for fun until the season starts, because he knows full well what guesswork college basketball preseason rankings are anyway.
    Individual pre-season rankings may be guesswork to some extent, but the biases of numerous voters in the AP poll tend to cancel each other out in the pre-season rankings and have historically been pretty good at predicting which teams would have post-season success. Weekly in-season rankings are a completely different story. Pomeroy has addressed this before. http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web..._poll_is_great
    "I don't like them when they are eating my azaleas or rhododendrons or pansies." - Coach K

  7. #7
    I like it! Give me high expectations over the no expectations of the past 20 years.

    State returns the best post player in CJL
    State returns the best PG in Brown
    State returns the best 3pt Shooter in Wood
    State returns the best fouler in Howell Oops...I mean one of the best rebounders.
    These four are all Juniors and Seniors.

    This frees up the freshmen to be freshmen and to learn. While they will be expected to play (a lot), but they won't be expected to produce at an all-ACC level, which they might if we didn't have the returning talent. I think the Purvis and Warren both have a shot at the All-Freshmen team. From what I've seen/heard they are both legit game changing threats.

    Toss in the fact that by all accounts, last season was the first time our upperclassmen were actually coached, practiced and conditioned to play college basketball. If anything, this is what has me most excited, they've had all summer knowing what Coach Gottfried is expecting with regards to S&C, skills development, and effort.

    I also think folks look at the way CJL played down the stretch. How Zo Brown began to take over games. How things just started "clicking" for the players and many of them seemed to shift into another drive.

    I definitely wouldn't want to write off Duke and Carolina, after all they are #8 and #12...besides, there always has to be at least one overrated team that makes a huge tumble.

    Perhaps it is getting ahead of ourselves...but Coach K is getting old, UNC-CH is burning...it's time for a new Sheriff

  8. #8
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    Seems to me like last year's runner ups are being handed high expectations. I just don't get how Kansas is a top-ten team with the loss of Thomas Robinson and Tyshon "point plankin'" Taylor. Sure, they have some talent remaining - and Withey has developed into a super shot blocker - but much of what they have remaining has yet to be determined. I'll admit, I'm usually quick to get snarky about KU, simply because while I like Bill Self, I usually don't like his players (ahem - Sherron Collins, ahem - Morris Twins - ahem, Tyshon -ahem, JR Giddeons) - BUT - in the vague, unproven nature of pre-season, I think KU has much more yet to prove than a number of other squads...

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukeWarhead View Post
    Seems to me like last year's runner ups are being handed high expectations. I just don't get how Kansas is a top-ten team with the loss of Thomas Robinson and Tyshon "point plankin'" Taylor. Sure, they have some talent remaining - and Withey has developed into a super shot blocker - but much of what they have remaining has yet to be determined. I'll admit, I'm usually quick to get snarky about KU, simply because while I like Bill Self, I usually don't like his players (ahem - Sherron Collins, ahem - Morris Twins - ahem, Tyshon -ahem, JR Giddeons) - BUT - in the vague, unproven nature of pre-season, I think KU has much more yet to prove than a number of other squads...
    Like Duke, Kansas has three returning senior starters, plus a decent (albeit not spectacular) recruiting class. Also, like Duke, I suspect dwelling on what they lost (as opposed to what they bring back) will result in underestimating them.

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by DukeWarhead View Post
    Seems to me like last year's runner ups are being handed high expectations. I just don't get how Kansas is a top-ten team with the loss of Thomas Robinson and Tyshon "point plankin'" Taylor. Sure, they have some talent remaining - and Withey has developed into a super shot blocker - but much of what they have remaining has yet to be determined. I'll admit, I'm usually quick to get snarky about KU, simply because while I like Bill Self, I usually don't like his players (ahem - Sherron Collins, ahem - Morris Twins - ahem, Tyshon -ahem, JR Giddeons) - BUT - in the vague, unproven nature of pre-season, I think KU has much more yet to prove than a number of other squads...
    Warning, another "in defense of KU" post here....

    Sherron Collins? What exactly has he done to draw your ire? Was it growing up in a tough Chicago neighborhood with a father in prison, staying away from drugs to become a top athlete at a blue blood basketball power? Or was it trying to support his family in Chicago while playing at KU, then going through the premature death of his child? Or are you talking about the lawsuit against him that was dropped after the woman realized she was going to lose the counterclaim?

    Also, I have no idea what JR Giddens is doing in your list when it comes to Bill Self. He was a Roy recruit, who Self kicked off the team when he got in trouble.

    Back on topic, KU has lost lottery picks every offseason since 2008, and continues to win. They *arguably* lost more in production when the Morris twins + Selby went pro before last season, and that turned out ok. They aren't better than last year, but they don't really have to be.

    Btw... Ben McLemore is getting a ton of "one-and-done" hype around the team, and Self is already recruiting as if he won't be in Lawrence next season.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Like Duke, Kansas has three returning senior starters, plus a decent (albeit not spectacular) recruiting class.
    It is frustrating though that KU is getting a lot of respect and hype for this but Duke is not and THAT does have a lot to do with KU being the national runner-up last year (and Duke losing in the 1st Round). Curry, Kelly, and Plumlee were just as effective and productive last year as Johnson, Releford, and Whithey but not many people outside of Duke fans would see it that way. Most people see Whithey as a potentially dominant player this year and lottery pick but view Mason as an alright player and possibly a first rounder when the reality is Mason better statistically across the board than Whithey except in FT% and BPG (a big reason Whithey gets so much hype, his ability to block shots). KU's seniors were better defensively (and they lost their best offensive players) but Duke's seniors were better offensively (and it's hard to argue Duke lost it's best defenders because frankly everybody was bad in that department last year) The reality is people let what happened in the previous year's NCAA tournament impact how they view the teams for the upcoming season.
    Last edited by mo.st.dukie; 10-15-2012 at 03:12 PM.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by FerryFor50 View Post
    Those are not pre-season ranking from CNNSI. Those are Luke Winn's power rankings. His own opinion.

    My biggest issue with the rankings is the lack of actual basketball analysis and being more of a fluff piece. (Such as UNC's floor pattern and Duke's Army boots)
    Luke Winn is one of the best college basketball writers out there, but this doesn't reflect that. I think he was saying on Twitter a week or two before this came out that he feels like these are a crap-shoot and it's so hard to predict. A lot of the CBB writers are feeling that way about this year in general. No need to overreact to these individual preseason power rankings - the AP Poll and Coaches' Poll are definitely more reasonable things to examine than these individual rankings.

  13. #13
    I also sort of feel like it's "boring" to predict Duke or Carolina winning the ACC, and even if they do, you don't get much credit for it. Predicting someone else, if it comes to pass, makes you look brilliant!

  14. #14
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    Paper vs White Board

    I think that, on paper, State is one of the best teams on the country. I don't want to repeat other posters, but what doesn't State have? They are loaded from top to bottom, have great players are key positions (PG, big men) and can shoot. What's not to like?

    The problem, IMO, will be dealing with those expectations. This is State. Right now, Raleigh is going wild. They are excited. They think they are the clear favorites in the ACC. But their coach is still unproven, he's new, and no one knows who this team will mesh together. The questions marks are a dime-a-dozen, and I'm not sure that Gottfried can control them. He isn't Coach K (the best in the business at team management) or Roy Will (been in the business a long time. Knows how to manage a lot of talent), so it's interesting to see how they'll deal with all the talent. Also, when put up against the best teams, how will State react? I have no idea, and it's interesting to see.

    Without knowing the answers to these questions, State at 3 makes a ton of sense. They are unknown commodity in an era where we should know what's going on. They clearly have the talent, but they will be an enigma for at least a few months.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  15. #15
    If it can't be Duke...I'll be happy with The Pack....

    ABC!!!!!

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by mo.st.dukie View Post
    It is frustrating though that KU is getting a lot of respect and hype for this but Duke is not and THAT does have a lot to do with KU being the national runner-up last year (and Duke losing in the 1st Round). Curry, Kelly, and Plumlee were just as effective and productive last year as Johnson, Releford, and Whithey but not many people outside of Duke fans would see it that way. Most people see Whithey as a potentially dominant player this year and lottery pick but view Mason as an alright player and possibly a first rounder when the reality is Mason better statistically across the board than Whithey except in FT% and BPG (a big reason Whithey gets so much hype, his ability to block shots). KU's seniors were better defensively (and they lost their best offensive players) but Duke's seniors were better offensively (and it's hard to argue Duke lost it's best defenders because frankly everybody was bad in that department last year) The reality is people let what happened in the previous year's NCAA tournament impact how they view the teams for the upcoming season.
    I agree with just about all of this post, but couldn't agree more with the last sentence. I would add that some people let what happened in the NCAA tournament overrule the results from the rest of that season.
    “Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”

  17. #17
    I don't really understand the disbelief over State's ranking. I think Winn is really good and for the most part agree with his assessment of teams. While 3 may be a little high, they're top 5 in my opinion. While I think Painter's absence will be missed at the beginning of the season, State is really really good on paper, which is all they have to go on right now. Purvis is a stud, Lo-Bro is an absolute boss, and when Calvin puts it together, he's the best player in the ACC.

    Note: I think think that Tyler Lewis will never be the player that some people think he will be and he should almost be discounted for this year. He's not particularly quick, he's tiny, and he's a terrible defender from what I've seen from Oak Hill last year.

    This team will go as far as Lorenzo Brown takes them. He is that talented and is that good (somebody's gotta get Leslie the rock). Moving him to PG, and seeing how good he could be at that spot has been the best move Gottfried has made, and that includes the stud recruiting class he just brought in.


    Duke is kind of an anomaly to everyone. This season kind of hinges on what year Mason does. We know what we're going to get from Ryan, we might even get a little more. We know what we're going to get from Thornton, I think he's pretty much reached his ceiling, he could become a better 3 point threat, but he's not gonna turn into Daniel Ewing out there. Seth is a great player, but he just has to be better. Unlike moving Brown to the PG at state, I think that that has proven to be a weakness to Seth, he's a scorer, plain and simple, hence the importance of Quinn Cook's development (taken into account my previous statement on Thornton). I think Rasheed is going to be a really good contributor to this team, especially on defense, but he is a really streaky shooter, which unfortunately, is something we have a surplus of. I'm excited to see what Murphy brings to the table, and hope that Marshall is healthy enough to have an impact for 10 minutes a game at the least. Amile I don't think is going to be ready to really come in and contribute this season, but that's tough because he's going to have to, I just don't think Hairston is the answer to any of our questions.

    I think that 8 is actually a little high for this Duke team right now with all the unanswered, lingering questions. I do think that unlike last season, we will see marked improvement over the course of the season, even if that means taking a couple of tough losses in the beginning. People on the board like to make comparisons to past teams based on the fact that we have a lot of experience (3 senior starters), but Mason, Ryan, and Seth are not Scheyer, Z, and Lance in that department, they're just not. Hopefully over the course of the season they get better and better there, but it's going to take their going into an area where they don't seem very comfortable. I think Ryan is the most natural of the leaders on the team, but he sure as shooting isn't the reincarnation of Laettner or anything like that.

    UNC is super athletic on the wings, really talented at a lot of positions, but as most people have stated, their season kind of hinges on how well Marcus Paige plays. K can kind of make a team run around their best player, Roy HAS to have a point guard. Carolina can beat anybody in the country, if they decide they want to D-up on the wings, they are stout to say the least, but that's not exactly their forte outside of Strickland (I wish we had him, I really like the way he plays). That being said, Carolina can also lose to really anybody if they're missing their shots, and they could lose badly to good people. This is a very 'Duke' style of Carolina team. 3 point or bust. McAdoo looks great on the other side of Zeller and Henson, arguably the best front-line in the country last year. McRoberts looked really good across from Sheldon Williams, and when he was expected to carry the team the next year, he did an okay job, but it didn't work out great for the team.

    This is going to be a fun season in the ACC, mostly because the NC teams have the potential to all be really good, Maryland is getting better, I think Alex Lin is going to really be a stud, and Florida State has shown that they are ready to stay near the top of the league. This isn't the most exciting team that Duke has assembled in recent memory, but I am excited to see how they grow as a squad without a proven star (Austin was that last year). We'll see how things develop, I expect a strong season (without the record of the regular season of last year) with a significantly better finish, Elite 8 for State and Duke at least and a 2nd round out for Carolina.

    Go Duke, Beat Carolina, throw the ball to Vernon.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    People on the board like to make comparisons to past teams based on the fact that we have a lot of experience (3 senior starters), but Mason, Ryan, and Seth are not Scheyer, Z, and Lance in that department, they're just not.
    I don't understand this statement. What had Z or Lance shown as leaders prior to their senior season? Z had never averaged as much as 12 mpg before 2009-10, so he certainly hadn't been leading on the court. And I don't think Jon Scheyer was really the leader of the 2008 or 2009 teams, either. Certainly as players, the current trio is more accomplished in the aggregate than the 2010 trio.

    Putting all that aside, experience doesn't only mean outspoken leadership. It means understanding what the coach wants and being able to execute it. It means the game has slowed down for you. It means not getting flustered because you've been there before. It could even mean leading by quiet example.

    Finally, I wonder if Purdue or Baylor had beaten us in 2010 whether you'd be making statements like, "they're just not." I suspect not, although if we'd lost in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, our seniors' experience or leadership abilities wouldn't have been any less. I have no idea if this applies to you, but it seems in many fans' eyes winning the title made these players larger than life, elevated them to exalted status. But the championship didn't make them experienced. Their experience made them champions.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I don't understand this statement. What had Z or Lance shown as leaders prior to their senior season? Z had never averaged as much as 12 mpg before 2009-10, so he certainly hadn't been leading on the court. And I don't think Jon Scheyer was really the leader of the 2008 or 2009 teams, either. Certainly as players, the current trio is more accomplished in the aggregate than the 2010 trio.
    Agree 100%.

    Actually, the revisionist history is kind of funny. At the beginning of that season, no sane person was saying, "We got Senior Lance, Zoub, and Scheyer -- National Champs, Baby!" (Well, maybe Ozzie was.)
    "Just like you man. I got the shotgun, you got the briefcase." Omar Little

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I don't understand this statement. What had Z or Lance shown as leaders prior to their senior season? Z had never averaged as much as 12 mpg before 2009-10, so he certainly hadn't been leading on the court. And I don't think Jon Scheyer was really the leader of the 2008 or 2009 teams, either. Certainly as players, the current trio is more accomplished in the aggregate than the 2010 trio.

    Putting all that aside, experience doesn't only mean outspoken leadership. It means understanding what the coach wants and being able to execute it. It means the game has slowed down for you. It means not getting flustered because you've been there before. It could even mean leading by quiet example.

    Finally, I wonder if Purdue or Baylor had beaten us in 2010 whether you'd be making statements like, "they're just not." I suspect not, although if we'd lost in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8, our seniors' experience or leadership abilities wouldn't have been any less. I have no idea if this applies to you, but it seems in many fans' eyes winning the title made these players larger than life, elevated them to exalted status. But the championship didn't make them experienced. Their experience made them champions.
    I certainly agree with your post, but would go even further with the bolded part and would say that it isn't even close as to which trio was more accomplished to the end of the junior years of their careers.

    Code:
    Player	        MPG	PPG	RPG	APG	Player	       MPG	PPG   RPG	APG
    Jon Scheyer	32.8	14.9	3.6	2.8	Seth Curry	30.2	 13.2	2.6	2.4
    Brian Zoubek	11.1	4.1	3.7	0.4	Ryan Kelly	25.9    11.8	5.4	1.1
    Lance Thomas	18.6	5.3	3.6	0.5	Ma Plumlee      28.4     11.1	9.2	1.6
    Totals	        62.5	24.3	10.9	3.7	Totals	        84.5	 36.1	17.2	5.1
    Mind you, you could make some arguments for Scheyer, Thomas and Zoubek to make it closer. Scheyer had just played point for the last 8? games of his junior season and showed that he could be successful in that role and would have been close to being an all-ACC performer that year. Zoubek and Thomas were under-rated by many throughout their careers and Zoubek had not been very healthy for much of his career and Thomas' contributions do not always show up on the stat sheet. However, I don't believe that going into the championship season, anyone would make the argument that Scheyer, Zoubek and Thomas were superior to 2 all-ACC performers and a player who had averaged 11.8 points per game, 5.4 rebounds and whose absence was a key factor in the early elimination of the team from the tournaments last year.

    This is certainly not to say that this year's seniors are guaranteed or expected to have the same end of year success as the 2010 squad, though it would be nice. I do expect these seniors to have a great senior year and a similar amount of regular season success as the 2010 squad.

    I think Duke is ranked reasonably in most pre-season rankings list. I wonder if NC State will have trouble meeting these high expectations as they look to be improved from last year, but that was a team that was 22-13 going into an NCAA tournament in which they won two games. Are those two games more relevant than the 35 games before? We will soon find out.

    I would like to see Duke ranked in the top 10 to start the year, as I believe Duke has a very significant and impressive streak of weeks in the top 10 of the AP that I would like to see the team get a chance to continue.
    “Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”

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