Season tips off one month from today/Your expectations for 2012-2013

[jimsumner]

I remember that, too, but with Coach K I think there's a difference between him saying what position someone's going to play and him saying someone's one of our best players and is going to play a lot. He has always seemed a lot more flexible and willing to re-think positions, but less so about the top of the rotation.

Duke began last season with the idea that its optimal lineup included all of Curry, Rivers and Dawkins. All natural college 2s.

The best way to get that trio on the floor at the same time was to play Curry at the point and Dawkins at the 3. Essentially, a freshman and two guys playing out of position.

This season Curry goes back to his natural position, while Duke fills the small forward spot with an actual small forward. No one playing out of position.

Should be a cause for some confidence.

[wk2109]

Nice article on Quinn, Marshall, and Alex re: their summer overseas experiences http://www.goduke.com//ViewArticle.d...CLID=205709844

I think the success of Quinn and Alex depends a lot on their confidence. If they can confidently step into the 1 and 3 spots, Duke will be very good this year. I also hope that Marshall will be able to bang around inside for 10 mpg.

[sagegrouse]

I don't like to make this problem too hard. Here's a table that supports my guess about the distribution:

	Ave.	2012	Guess
Bigs			
Kelly	 20.0 	 25.9 	 27.5 
MP2	 20.0 	 28.4 	 27.5 
MP3	 20.0 	 NA 	 15.0 
Wings, Tweeners			
Josh	 20.0 	 7.3 	 15.0 
Alex	 20.0 	 NA 	 20.0 
Amile	 20.0 	 NA 	 15.0 
Guards			
Curry	 20.0 	 30.2 	 25.0 
Tyler	 20.0 	 21.1 	 15.0 
Cook	 20.0 	 11.4 	 25.0 
Sulaimon	 20.0 	 NA 	 15.0 
	 200.0 	 124.3 	 200.0

Ten players -- 20 minutes each?? Probably not, but I think all of the guys will get minutes.

Column two is last year (with some adjustments).

I see Kelly, MP2, Curry and Cook as the four stars of the team -- getting 25-27.5 minutes each. Alex should start and get about half the minutes available. The others get lots of burn time.

Does it work? Well, the "bigs" get 70 minutes a game, meaning that for ten minutes, only one of the three is on the court. The four guards get 80 minutes, which means there is little use of a three-guard lineup. (Hmmmm....) The wing players or "tweeners" get 50 minutes.

How about the "all-floor team," which is tall but able to run: MP2, Alex, Amile or Josh, and Sulaimon with Quinn at the point to distribute the ball.

Anyway, an idea or two here, perhaps.

sagegrouse

[Jderf]

I have absolutely no qualms in stating that any time Seth Curry is on the floor we are playing with four defenders and a pair of arms (which are there to launch threes and pick up the occasional backcourt theft). He is an alarming liability when asked to pony up and play D against elite guards. That really cannot be debated, at least too successfully, IMO.

I'm surprised at the turn this thread seems to have taken lately. Since when did Seth become the source of all our defensive woes last season? Didn't we have a thorough, season-long analysis of last year's defense which consistently showed that Seth was actually a perfectly capable defender?

I mean, I understand if you found something to nitpick in the methods/results given by the various data-mongers on the board (although I found it to be pretty solid), but I don't get how such a position could suddenly become so taken for granted that it "cannot be debated." Especially when the whole argument seems to be "he's 6'2 and 180 lbs, therefore he can't defend."

[licc85]

I'm surprised at the turn this thread seems to have taken lately. Since when did Seth become the source of all our defensive woes last season? Didn't we have a thorough, season-long analysis of last year's defense which consistently showed that Seth was actually a perfectly capable defender?

I mean, I understand if you found something to nitpick in the methods/results given by the various data-mongers on the board (although I found it to be pretty solid), but I don't get how such a position could suddenly become so taken for granted that it "cannot be debated." Especially when the whole argument seems to be "he's 6'2 and 180 lbs, therefore he can't defend."

Well, I'm fine with Seth, he's probably our most talented player on offense and I think he should play 30+ mins a game, but if you watch the kid play, he just doesn't pass the eye test as a defender. He's got quick hands, which lets him get a good number of steals, but unfortunately . . . he's just slow. I don't know if it's because he has short legs or he's just not athletic, but he's just not good at keeping his man in front of him. In college, it's okay to have a guy like Seth if you have someone else on the perimeter who CAN defend, like Nolan Smith in 2011.

Last year, Seth played most of his minutes with Austin Rivers, Tyler Thornton, or Quinn Cook as the other guard. All 3 of those guys, quite frankly, are sub-par defenders. Even Thornton, who is constantly praised by commentators as a good defender, in my opinion is annoying as a defender, but he's no Nolan Smith, not even close. Furthermore,Seth is not 6'2", he's 6'1" with shoes on, meaning he is a very undersized 2-guard, which is why Coach K tried so hard to convert him into a point guard last year. You can't take on most of the 2-guards in the ACC giving up 3-4 inches and 20 pounds without some help on defense. This is why some of us, myself included, believe Rasheed needs to be on the floor with Seth so that he may guard opposing guards who will undoubtedly give Seth trouble on defense.

Seth was by no means the "source" of all of our defensive woes, but he was definitely a part of them. The other main problem being our lack of a guy who could match up with opposing 3s. Hopefully, Alex Murphy is the answer at that position. I also think Amile is going to be a huge asset on defense with his cerebral approach to the game and loooooong arms. Our defense will be much improved this year. (And to be honest, the only direction we can go is up from last year . . . we were BAD) Rasheed will be a welcome addition on the perimeter as well. I just don't think we can go with Seth AND Quinn as our 2 guards if we are playing against a dangerous guard, it's gotta be Rasheed and one of the 2, but not both.

[jcastranio]

I'm surprised at the turn this thread seems to have taken lately. Since when did Seth become the source of all our defensive woes last season? Didn't we have a thorough, season-long analysis of last year's defense which consistently showed that Seth was actually a perfectly capable defender?

I mean, I understand if you found something to nitpick in the methods/results given by the various data-mongers on the board (although I found it to be pretty solid), but I don't get how such a position could suddenly become so taken for granted that it "cannot be debated." Especially when the whole argument seems to be "he's 6'2 and 180 lbs, therefore he can't defend."

The Duke man-to-man, overplaying the pass and taking away the three point shot, depends heavily on the concept of "help" defense. We didn't do that very well, last year. Poor communication, lack of a total commitment to team defense, lacking either a tall athletic 2 guard and/or a long, athletic 3. There were a lot of factors. Duke doesn't really depend on having a lock-down defender who stops the other team cold (although we have had that). We depend on five players working together. Just didn't happen last year.

This year will be different.

We have size at the 4,5, and 3.
Trading Miles for Marshall (even if for just ten minutes a game) will help the defense. Marshall is bigger and will, I believe, actually stay on the ground and in position more often than Miles (no offense, Miles - I loved ya)
Alex and Amile bring a different component - defensively.
The return of the proper-sized "3" helps with the smaller "1" and "2" that we will occasionally play. And ... with Rasheed and Tyler, we won't always be small at both positions.

It just isn't about some tall guard taking advantage of Seth's smaller stature and shooting over him for 25 points while the rest of the Duke team stands helplessly by. Seth's job would be to take away the 3 point shot, play those passing lanes, and funnel stronger opponents into the help defense. He, like the rest of the Duke team, needs to play better team defense. But, he is not a liability by himself. Not in our system, the way it should be played.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

The Duke man-to-man, overplaying the pass and taking away the three point shot, depends heavily on the concept of "help" defense. We didn't do that very well, last year. Poor communication, lack of a total commitment to team defense, lacking either a tall athletic 2 guard and/or a long, athletic 3. There were a lot of factors. Duke doesn't really depend on having a lock-down defender who stops the other team cold (although we have had that). We depend on five players working together. Just didn't happen last year.

This year will be different.

We have size at the 4,5, and 3.
Trading Miles for Marshall (even if for just ten minutes a game) will help the defense. Marshall is bigger and will, I believe, actually stay on the ground and in position more often than Miles (no offense, Miles - I loved ya)
Alex and Amile bring a different component - defensively.
The return of the proper-sized "3" helps with the smaller "1" and "2" that we will occasionally play. And ... with Rasheed and Tyler, we won't always be small at both positions.

It just isn't about some tall guard taking advantage of Seth's smaller stature and shooting over him for 25 points while the rest of the Duke team stands helplessly by. Seth's job would be to take away the 3 point shot, play those passing lanes, and funnel stronger opponents into the help defense. He, like the rest of the Duke team, needs to play better team defense. But, he is not a liability by himself. Not in our system, the way it should be played.

Thank you! It's all about team D!

I'm not discounting the value of individual athleticism and smarts. But I still cannot understand why some continue to harp on this player's ability or that player's height or reach or athleticism but ignore the importance of communication skills and ability to play effectively as part of a team defensive scheme. I also don't understand the declarations that Rasheed and Amile (and Alex and Marshall for that matter) are all individually, and therefore collectively, going to dramatically improve our defense. None of them has played a single college game. Lots to learn. And I hope it comes fast. But neither their speed, height, reach or any other measure of physical ability tells us ANYTHING about what they will do on the court TOGETHER. This is not a negative assessment or prediction of what we will see - just a reality check. I will predict that as soon as THIS GROUP learns to play good team D, we'll see what we have historically come to expect from Duke on the defensive end.

[wk2109]

To be big you need to 'play big' and K hasn't done that recently, choosing instead to play 3 guard lineups. Then when the size you do have on the court is being pulled away from the basket to guard there man, you get even smaller.

If by recently you mean the past 1 year, then you're right -- but in 2010 and 2011 Kyle started at the 3. Also, Duke was #1 last season in 'effective height' according to kenpom.com (perhaps because of the Plumlee/Plumlee/Kelly rotation at the 4 and 5), so while the team didn't seem particularly big, it certainly wasn't small relative to the rest of the country.

As has been reiterated many times on this board, Duke has had plenty of defensive success with three guard lineups. From 2003-2006, when Duke played almost exclusively with three guard lineups, the defense ranked 15, 4, 1, and 13. It really is about the team defense. The reason the defense was so good in 2010 was not because Kyle and Jon were such great on-the-ball defenders, it was because that 5-man starting lineup was so strong as a unit. Lance and Zoubek had those defensive rotations down to a T and the bigs, Zoubek and Miles in particular, cleaned up the defensive glass.

I'm not sure how much value there is to looking at a player's height and seeing if it is the ideal size for a defender at a certain position. It's not like basketball is a game where each player matches up with his counterpart and does a series of jumping, quickness, and agility tests or a comparison of wingspan and height measurements. Obviously there's some significance to height/athleticism, but it's the grasp of team defensive concepts that will make the difference between this year and last year. If seniors Mason and Ryan can anchor the interior like seniors Lance and Zoubek did, that will be a good start.

[Mike Corey]

Coach K announced at his press conference that Quinn Cook is the starting PG, and Thornton will be backing him up.

He's also said that Mason has the chance to be one of the best players in the country and that it's "his time to be key."

Added that Murphy reminds him of Singler, has the chance to be an outstanding player.

And says we don't have typical "breakdown" players.

This all per the Twitter feed of the Duke Chronicle and Laura Keeley.

[dcar1985]

Coach K announced at his press conference that Quinn Cook is the starting PG, and Thornton will be backing him up.

He's also said that Mason has the chance to be one of the best players in the country and that it's "his time to be key."

Added that Murphy reminds him of Singler, has the chance to be an outstanding player.

And says we don't have typical "breakdown" players.

This all per the Twitter feed of the Duke Chronicle and Laura Keeley.

Another interesting quote from the press conference via Laura Keeley..."Seth Curry won't be doing any offensive point guard duties and will be doing minimal on-ball defense."

[Kedsy]

Ten players -- 20 minutes each?? Probably not, but I think all of the guys will get minutes.

I personally would like it if everyone played a lot, but history suggests there is absolutely no way Coach K will have ten guys playing 15+ minutes a game. Especially if you split out the early part of the season from the season after January 1. We'll be lucky to see eight guys playing that much, and the smart money would be on seven.

[Cameron]

I'm surprised at the turn this thread seems to have taken lately. Since when did Seth become the source of all our defensive woes last season? Didn't we have a thorough, season-long analysis of last year's defense which consistently showed that Seth was actually a perfectly capable defender?

I mean, I understand if you found something to nitpick in the methods/results given by the various data-mongers on the board (although I found it to be pretty solid), but I don't get how such a position could suddenly become so taken for granted that it "cannot be debated." Especially when the whole argument seems to be "he's 6'2 and 180 lbs, therefore he can't defend."

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, but I don't think I ever said that Seth was "the source of all our defensive woes last season." I just don't think that Seth, outside of having excellent intangibles and quick hands that are conducive to picking up periodic steals -- is a good defender when it comes to playing against high-quality backcourts that feature one or two really efficient drivers. I am not blaming his size completely, but I have to imagine that his smaller stature and less than speedy lateral quickness are not doing Seth any favors defensively. Licc85 all ready covered my opinion on this matter really well, but I feel an integral factor for a team to be truly successful is the presence of at least one really effective perimeter defender in the backcourt who can be counted on to adequately control dribble penetration. We didn't have that last year. We did in 2010 and 2011. And the contrast in defensive success of 2010 and '11 versus 2012 is rather striking. That's where the addition of a player like Rasheed in the backcourt, who has the potential to be a dynamic defender, would make a tremendous difference.

As expressed by Jcastranio, the problem with our overall defensive performance a year ago was a much larger issue than just Seth or any other single player. It was a team-wide issue that involved many different components, including poor team communication, weak help-side tendencies and just overall below-average instincts on the defensive end of the floor. There just didn't seem to be that will to succeed on defense, that get-down-and-play passion that was inherently associated with our very best teams. At certain times last season, I got the impression that a few of our guys were just trying to fight through the boredom until they could get their hands on the ball again. That's never going to win you games. Defense is something that takes a unit of five to really achieve greatness, as others have all ready more eloquently stated.

[Cameron]

Another interesting quote from the press conference via Laura Keeley..."Seth Curry won't be doing any offensive point guard duties and will be doing minimal on-ball defense."

This is very relieving to hear. And the second part of that -- re: finding a place for Seth on the defensive end where he won't hurt us -- is something that I knew the staff was probably trying to work on. It will be interesting to see what that exactly means as the season plays out.

[sagegrouse]

I personally would like it if everyone played a lot, but history suggests there is absolutely no way Coach K will have ten guys playing 15+ minutes a game. Especially if you split out the early part of the season from the season after January 1. We'll be lucky to see eight guys playing that much, and the smart money would be on seven.

Yeah, you are probably right, but I keep hoping. Here's my thinking -- Marshall is gonna get playing time spelling Ryan and Mason. Alex will start as a wing player, but Josh, because of his energy and experience, and Amile, because of his quickness and length, will get time. I really think all four guards will get plenty of minutes: three of them played last year, and I feel confident that Rasheed will play.

Where are the weaknesses in the everyone plays argument, Sage asks rhetorically? Well, Marshall and Amile may not be ready and may only get a few minutes. Or, God help us, someone may get hurt.

But I see eight at a minimum and more probably nine. But I'll stand by my ridiculous projection that ten players will get double-digit minutes.

sagegrouse

[Kedsy]

Where are the weaknesses in the everyone plays argument, Sage asks rhetorically?

I sometimes enjoy answering rhetorical questions, so here goes. Coach K appears to believe that his best players should play as much as they can handle (without losing effectiveness). So, Mason and Ryan will probably play 30+ minutes (foul trouble permitting), rather than the 27.5 you assigned them. If Seth is our best perimeter player (which K seems to think, despite apparent DBR misgivings), he's going to play close to 35 minutes and not 25. Similarly, if Alex is our best big wing player and Rasheed is our best 6th man, they'll probably play closer to 25 and 20, instead of the 20 and 15 you assigned them. And if you add up the minutes I've hypothesized, plus 40 combined for Quinn and Tyler, it only leaves 20 minutes combined for the last three guys (Marshall, Josh, Amile). Even if Quinn and Tyler combine for less than 40 (because Rasheed gets some of his minutes at PG) then we'd end up with something like 30 minutes for the last four guys (including Tyler with the three backup bigs). It still adds up to the 7th guy getting 10 to 15 mpg, the 8th guy getting 10 mpg, and the 9th and 10th guys splitting 5 to 10 minutes.

There are those who have stated it all depends on the amount of dropoff between the player subbing out and the player subbing in. And this may be true, but I can't remember a season where K thought dropping the top three or four players by 5 minutes to increase the bottom three or four players by 5 minutes was worth doing. So, until he does it, I'm in the camp that says he isn't going to.

[Kedsy]

I see Kelly, MP2, Curry and Cook as the four stars of the team -- getting 25-27.5 minutes each.

To underscore my point, in contrast to the 25 and 25 minute averages that you have predicted for our top two perimeter players, here is a chart of our top two perimeter minute-getters since 2001:

Year     Minutes
----     ---------
2012     33, 30
2011     35, 34
2010     37, 36
2009     33, 30
2008     31, 28
2007     34, 32
2006     37, 32
2005     37, 35
2004     35, 31
2003     36, 31
2002     35, 34
2001     32, 29

The closest we've come to your model in the 21st century was 9 mpg more than you're predicting. The average is 16 mpg more than you're predicting. Some coaches seem to like the 15-to-25-mpg-for-everyone model, but K doesn't seem to be one of them.

[Bob Green]

1. I expect our seniors to step up and lead the team. Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly and Seth Curry have to be leaders 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

2. I expect improvement from last year's sophomores and freshmen. Tyler Thornton, Quinn Cook and Josh Hairston must be better and more consistent players than they were last season.

3. I have no expectations for the freshmen, but I do have "hopes and dreams" which include: I hope Rasheed Sulaimon is a solid perimeter defender. I hope Alex Murphy is strong and versatile. I hope Marshall Plumlee is better than his brothers, because they are damn good and we all want Marshall to be "Tony the Tiger" great! I hope Amile Jefferson is as quick and agile as advertised. There have been some Antawn Jamison comparisons battered about. How great would that be? Of course, it takes time for the freshmen to adjust to the speed of the game.

Finally, I expect the guys to go out and work as hard as they can to be the best they can.

[NM Duke Fan]

I sometimes enjoy answering rhetorical questions, so here goes. Coach K appears to believe that his best players should play as much as they can handle (without losing effectiveness). So, Mason and Ryan will probably play 30+ minutes (foul trouble permitting), rather than the 27.5 you assigned them. If Seth is our best perimeter player (which K seems to think, despite apparent DBR misgivings), he's going to play close to 35 minutes and not 25. Similarly, if Alex is our best big wing player and Rasheed is our best 6th man, they'll probably play closer to 25 and 20, instead of the 20 and 15 you assigned them. And if you add up the minutes I've hypothesized, plus 40 combined for Quinn and Tyler, it only leaves 20 minutes combined for the last three guys (Marshall, Josh, Amile). Even if Quinn and Tyler combine for less than 40 (because Rasheed gets some of his minutes at PG) then we'd end up with something like 30 minutes for the last four guys (including Tyler with the three backup bigs). It still adds up to the 7th guy getting 10 to 15 mpg, the 8th guy getting 10 mpg, and the 9th and 10th guys splitting 5 to 10 minutes.

There are those who have stated it all depends on the amount of dropoff between the player subbing out and the player subbing in. And this may be true, but I can't remember a season where K thought dropping the top three or four players by 5 minutes to increase the bottom three or four players by 5 minutes was worth doing. So, until he does it, I'm in the camp that says he isn't going to.

From my perspective this looks to be a pretty good estimate of playing time, based on past patterns and the current players.

Was glad to hear that Cook is the starting point guard.

Rasheed is not mentioned within that point guard rotation, though I imagine he could see a bit of time there in a pinch. But his playing time will likely almost entirely come from subbing in at the two and three. I could see him getting approximately the playing time you mentioned, at the beginning of the year. But it wouldn't surprise me if this creeps up as the year goes by. Along with a few other posters, I feel his defensive capacities, size, and aggressiveness will be critical to the success of the team. And against some teams that present particular match-up problems, he could get even more playing time, and some of that might have to come at the expense of a more experienced and older player.

Anyway, it is nice to have a guard rotation of 4 players, all of whom can contribute in their own unique ways.

[Big Pappa]

Thought this was interesting and I didn't see it posted anywhere. At Duke's basketball media day Coach K talked about the other two starting spots and said that he expects Quinn and Alex to take them. Here is an excerpt from the Fay Observer article:

"Last year, point guard Quinn Cook spent most of the preseason recovering from knee surgery. Coach Mike Krzyzewski said Friday he expects Cook to start as a sophomore and have Tyler Thornton come off the bench. Redshirt freshman Alex Murphy is the most likely candidate to step in at the '3' spot."

It also talks about Seth and Marshall dealing with somewhat minor injuries. Here is the full article:

http://m.fayobserver.com/articles/2012/10/12/1210564

[Biscuitboy]

I agree with these predictions, assuming no major injuries. Teams with three starting seniors tend to perform better than the pundits give them credit for.

As with last season, defense will be the key. I'm assuming our D will get back to the Duke D to which we've become accustomed, but that remains to be proven, of course.

With a veteran team, I expect we'll get through the early non-conference juggernaut with probably one loss, although neither zero losses nor two losses would surprise me all that much. I expect us to be the class of the ACC, much to the surprise and chagrin of the other triangle teams. I expect us to be a #1 seed, or maybe a #2. Despite dire DBR poster's predictions after tough road losses, I don't think we'll lose in the first weekend of the NCAAT. Once we've hit the 2nd weekend, though, you never know what will happen in the most unpredictable sporting event out there.

I predict lots of arguing and gnashing of teeth here at DBR over the rotation. But by the end of the season, we're going to be down to our usual 7 man rotation, maybe 8 if we fans get lucky. I expect Seth, Mason, Ryan, Quinn, Alex, Rasheed, and Tyler to be part of that rotation, so then it comes down to which of Marshall, Amile, and Josh becomes the 8th man, because the other two won't play much once January 1 rolls around. My guess is Amile emerges as the 8th man, but that's just a gut feel. Could be any of them. As far as the point guard "argument," I expect Tyler's minutes will dwindle town to around 10 mpg by the end of the season, but Tyler has always stymied my predictive powers, so you never know.

As with last season, defense will be the key: I couldn't agree more. Our team defense was woeful last year. Was it an abberation? We are returning several of the same players who contributed to our uncharacteristic, yet consistent defensive collapse. Duke defense requires on the ball pressure. Who is that stalllwart? I don't think it's Seth Curry, and he will play 25+ minutes as a shooting guard/point guard. Can Quinn Cook be that point of attack on defense and run the offense? Last year's performance says no emphatically. That's a coaching opportunity. Between Tyler Thornton and 'Sheed, those two have the strongest potential to stop the ball.

It doesn't end with on ball pressure. On the blocks, we allowed regular and consistent access to the basket. That's where communication and discipline rule. Plumlee 2 and Kelly should be able to lock down the rim down low. They are natural shot blockers, however we need people in position to deny access to the hoop. Huge. Sheldon Williams was the landlord. We have two players who will play significant minutes that should be able to swat a lot of easy attempted shots away. In the box is where a lot of clean up must occur defensively if we are to deliver consistent powerful defense.
Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler were warriors. They tangled on both sides of the ball. Ryan Kelly's performance on defense will show where this team will end up NCAA tournament time. He's too smart and too gifted as a 4th year senior not to have a positive impact defensively.

Offensively, my hope is that Quinn Cook delivers on his potential and puts the ball in the right player's hands. He's the most natural point guard we've had in several years. I hope he's up to the challenge. And he has Ryan Kelly to support him in spacing the floor and finding the right scoring opportunity. I want the rest of the team to play on instinct.
I believe that Quinn Cook and Ryan Kelly's performance on both sides of the ball will determine how successful Duke is this season. Seth Curry is going to be Seth Curry, no surprises. Same with Mason. There's a mish mash of Hairston/Plumlee 3/ 'Sheed/Amile/Alex/Tyler that will be fighting for minutes. That story will be part of the fun. If Duke is to compete for ACC honors and NCAA Tournament success (elite 8 minimum), Duke will need to lock down defensively and limit opponents scoring. That will happen (or not) if we put pressure on the ball (iffy) and we control the paint (reasonable).

I can't wait!!